how many rounds

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Posted by RJM:
Why? [(in response to "Better" has to include "more rapidly").]
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If you are shooting at someone three to five meters away from you who is trying to kill you (the likeliest scenario); who is moving at about five meters per second (likely); you cannot effect a physiological stop unless you hit something critical that is rather small within the body (that's the way it is); and the likelihood of hitting at least one such "something" will be determined in large part by luck, which will be enhanced by hitting with more rounds in the limited time allowed, you had darn well better be able to shoot very rapidly.

Consider the distances and velocities and you will see the need to be able to shoot several times in less than a second--with adequate precision, of course.

Now, the above scenario describes an attack by someone with a contact weapon at close quarters. Should the attacker instead produce a firearm, the factors that generate the need for speed change somewhat, as TimSr points out,
 
The correct approach to statistics and risks have already been made, so I don't need to repeat them.

I would just like comment on this:

If one needs that type of fire power then one is in the wrong place at the wrong time. IMHO
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If that implies you are unlucky, that's correct. If it implies that you went to the wrong place - let me suggest these folks went to the wrong place:

1. School -VT or Columbine. IIRC, the safety officer ran short of ammo engaging the shooters.

2. Church - Colorado incident

3. Movies - Aurora.

4. Mall - Mumbai - watch the videos and see the folks defending the place realize they were running short for their handguns.

Now, I'm sure that most of you can fight at a distance with one shot from a J frame or two if there are more than assailants.

The realistic carry is a semi with about 10 to 15 rounds and an extra mag or two, if you want to deal with the small but quite possible extremes. Remember most common is not being in a shootout and then if you are in trouble just waving the gun around yelling "Begone".

Then take a stat course.
 
Let's go back to this one more time:

If one needs that type of fire power [(10-15-20+)] then one is in the wrong place at the wrong time. IMHO
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If one ever needs to threaten or use deadly force anywhere other than at home or in his place of employment, one could argue that the person is in "the wrong place at wrong time".

But some people do need to threaten to use deadly force for lawful purposes, from time to time.

Some people need to use deadly force for lawful purposes, from time to time.

When the need arises because someone comes along to perform violence in a location in which the defender has ventured without reason to expect danger, one cannot fault the defender.

So, how many rounds make sense?

Consider the following:
  • Handguns are notoriously ineffective in stopping humans
  • To effect a physiological stop, it is ncessary to hit small parts of the body that are hidden within a three dimentional cover
  • The target will likely be moving, fast
  • Hitting critical parts effectively is largely a matter of chance
  • More shots increase the chance
  • There will likely be very little time available
  • If there's one of 'em, chances are goood that there are two
  • It would be best to not end up empty

Personally, I consider 11 reasonable. I once carried 10+1.

I consider 13 reasonable. I once carried 12+1

I carry 7+1. It's a judgment call. I'm not sure about it. But Rob Pincus sometimes carries the same gun. That influences my thinking.

I try to stay out of bad places.

And I do not make decisions on the basis of means, modes, or medians.
 
This reminds me of a thread I had a while back, wondering if the world climate ( not weather ) today might warrent a better "fighting" gun... most of the comments IIRC were about what were my real odds of being caught in some as listed in this thread...

I guess to answer my own... pretty slim, living on the farm, & working in a nearby smallish town... I will admit going downtown metro ( where I perceive a bigger likelyhood of running into a domestic or political terrorist, or a gang confrontation, etc... I which case, if i'm passing through, I'm still content with my snubbie, but if spending time in the down town metro, I may opt for a bigger bore & higher capacity gun ( in such cases my 15 round 10mm often finds its way to my belt )

BTW... even though I don't carry a reload on my person, the little bit of a prepper in me, keeps 50 rounds of available ammo in my truck's "get home bag"... I just need to insure I'd have compatible ammo... right now there are 50 rounds of revolver ammo in the arm rest, & 50 rounds of 380 for my TCP I used to carry daily... ( get home bag needs updated :o )
 
I like large magazine weapons for home defense. 7-8 rounds is enough (for me) for every day carry. Don't get me wrong, if somehow I could squeeze 20 rounds of 9mm in the same space as the 8-round pistol I'd be all for it for EDC.
 
Posted by Magnum Wheel Man:
I guess to answer my own... pretty slim, living on the farm, & working in a nearby smallish town... I will admit going downtown metro ( where I perceive a bigger likelyhood of running into a domestic or political terrorist, or a gang confrontation, etc... I which case, if i'm passing through, I'm still content with my snubbie, but if spending time in the down town metro, I may opt for a bigger bore & higher capacity gun ( in such cases my 15 round 10mm often finds its way to my belt )
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First, separate the question of whether you may want to carry from what you may want to have on you, should the need arise.

The former will hinge upon the likelihood of encountering a threat. The latter? Not much.

If you want to wonder about terrorists and gangs, do so, but the most likely outdoor problem most of us should probably prepare for is two, or maybe three, violent criminal actors interested in our money, or valuables, our car, or just maybe, interested in taking us or a loved one home or to the ATM.

It may be very unlikely. On any given day, it will be extremely unlikely.

But the potential consequences might well be very, very severe.

Might a snubby suffice? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

The training that I have had has convinced me to not rely on one for primary carry.
 
Well...as they say, we're all different. If we weren't, we would all be wearing the same size underwear.
 
As much as I like to carry as much as possible, I certainly wouldn't feel undergunned with a revolver or small semi-automatic.

The only gun that I question the merits of is the .45 ACP XDs. With a capacity of 5+1, I'd just take a revolver.
 
LOGANVILLE, Ga. —
A woman hiding in her attic with children shot an intruder multiple times before fleeing to safety Friday.

The incident happened at a home on Henderson Ridge Lane in Loganville around 1 p.m. The woman was working in an upstairs office when she spotted a strange man outside a window, according to Walton County Sheriff Joe Chapman. He said she took her 9-year-old twins to a crawlspace before the man broke in using a crowbar.

But the man eventually found the family.

"The perpetrator opens that door. Of course, at that time he's staring at her, her two children and a .38 revolver," Chapman told Channel 2’s Kerry Kavanaugh.

The woman then shot him five times, but he survived, Chapman said. He said the woman ran out of bullets but threatened to shoot the intruder if he moved.

"She's standing over him, and she realizes she's fired all six rounds. And the guy's telling her to quit shooting," Chapman said.

The woman ran to a neighbor's home with her children. The intruder attempted to flee in his car but crashed into a wooded area and collapsed in a nearby driveway, Chapman said.

Deputies arrested 32-year-old Atlanta resident Paul Slater in connection with the crime. Chapman said they found him on the ground saying, "Help me. I'm close to dying." Slater was taken to Gwinnett Medical Center for treatment. Chapman said Slater was shot in the face and neck.

When I carry my J frame, I also carry my LCP, in case of a situation like this one.
 
"Now post a link where non LEOs became victims after they ran out of ammo or shot bad guys wearing body armor."

Am I to understand that 14 links weren't enough?
 
LOGANVILLE, Ga. —
A woman hiding in her attic with children shot an intruder multiple times before fleeing to safety Friday.

The incident happened at a home on Henderson Ridge Lane in Loganville around 1 p.m. The woman was working in an upstairs office when she spotted a strange man outside a window, according to Walton County Sheriff Joe Chapman. He said she took her 9-year-old twins to a crawlspace before the man broke in using a crowbar.

But the man eventually found the family.

"The perpetrator opens that door. Of course, at that time he's staring at her, her two children and a .38 revolver," Chapman told Channel 2’s Kerry Kavanaugh.

The woman then shot him five times, but he survived, Chapman said. He said the woman ran out of bullets but threatened to shoot the intruder if he moved.

"She's standing over him, and she realizes she's fired all six rounds. And the guy's telling her to quit shooting," Chapman said.

The woman ran to a neighbor's home with her children. The intruder attempted to flee in his car but crashed into a wooded area and collapsed in a nearby driveway, Chapman said.

Deputies arrested 32-year-old Atlanta resident Paul Slater in connection with the crime. Chapman said they found him on the ground saying, "Help me. I'm close to dying." Slater was taken to Gwinnett Medical Center for treatment. Chapman said Slater was shot in the face and neck.

When I carry my J frame, I also carry my LCP, in case of a situation like this one.
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What's the problem? She stopped the threat, it sounds like.
 
How many rounds will someone need to resolve any particular situation? Dunno. Who does?

How many punches (blows, kicks, etc) will it take to defend myself and end any particular attack on me? Dunno.

What's more important in when it comes to physical self defense capabilities?

Strength?
Stamina?
Training?
Skill?
Experience?
Knowledge of how, why & when to apply all of it?

You pick. ;) (Yes, all of them are important, but how are you going to decide upon the right prioritization for you?)

Is someone who can throw 1 or 2 wild, but strong, punches more likely to be successful at defending themselves than someone who is skilled, experienced and has some stamina, but isn't as strong?

What situations do you want to prepare to face, and how prepared do you want to be?

How experienced and trained do you think you might need to be?

Who will be your attacker(s)?

What will the circumstances be in the fight(s) that finds you?

Will you be able to avoid it (or them)?

Will you be able to multitask and make the right decisions under stress?

Do you have enough training to fall back upon under stress?

I don't claim to have the answers to any of these questions, and I've invested 44 years in the pursuit and practice of the martial arts.

I don't have any definitive answers for such questions regrading the lawful use of guns for defensive roles, either. I've invested a fair amount of time trying to keep learning about it, though, as both a firearms trainer and someone who has carried a badge, ID card and gun (active & retired/reserve) for more than 30 years.

Still working on trying to come up with the best answers for me.

Today I'm about to make a 100+ mile motorcycle ride to handle some paperwork and maybe visit some friends. Considering the heat, and wanting to be able to take off my leather riding jacket when I'm relaxing, I'm inclined to slip one of my pocket-holstered LCP's into my jeans pocket and leave the heavier hardware at home.

Risk assessment and personal choice. Yes, the LCP's are on my list of retirement CCW guns with which I've trained and qualified, and I wouldn't think to occasionally carry either of them if I wasn't satisfied with the results.

Would one of my J-frame snubs be somewhat of a better choice, caliber-wise? Sure. Probably.

Would one of my 9's, .40's or .45's probably be an even 'better' choice? Again, sure. Probably.

I'm not looking to wear a belt gun for today's activities, though. Nor carry a larger gun in the custom heavy leather holster pockets of my riding jacket, mostly since I want to be able to leave the jacket on the back of a chair at a cigar club.

It's all about choices and risk assessment, as well as preparation to work with those various choices in reasonably anticipated circumstances.
 
Posted by fastbolt:
How many rounds will someone need to resolve any particular situation? Dunno. Who does?
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That, combined with the rest of the post, pretty well nails it.

The OP contained some comments about what we can characterize as "past averages".

Even if we were somehow able, and it is at least conceivable that technology may someday allow this, to assess via simulation the likely outcomes of different scenarios coupled with different shooting performances at different targets, and playing wit hotter variables, all we would have is some kind of complex multivariate distribution.

One could choose some assumptions to simplify, and one could then calculate some averages--should one desire.

Averages just don't mean very much.
 
I haven't yet had the opportunity to talk to anyone who survived a deadly force encounter who described their experience as "average".

I didn't consider describing any of my experiences as "average", before or after they happened, either. ;) Probably part of someone's statistical data base, somewhere, though.
 
Yes, I know we are talking about the "street" but ask any combat veteran what his biggest fear was (besides getting killed) in a firefight. For me, in the bush, and not knowing the size of the hostile force involved, my biggest fear was running out of ammo. Sometimes I would hump very little food for the sake of more ammo. It is difficult to forget that.

Attend different Firearms Training Facilities and they always train for the multiple attackers. The chances of needing tons of ammo in a street fight is probably slim but why chance it? If I have 25 rounds vs. 8 rounds, who is going to care with the possible exception of my opponents. If I choose to carry that much ammo, it should no one else's concern just as carrying a concealed firearm should be no once else's concern unless I decide to utilize it. In that case it should become everyone's concern that's on the business end of my firearm.
 
"Better" has to include "more rapidly".


Why? Better I would think would include more accurately before I would say it has to include more rapidly. You want your bullets to go where you want them to...you are responsible for them, afterall.
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It would seem to me that in a two way gun fight, being able to land your shots into the bad guy before he lands his in you would be a distinct advantge.
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Absolutely, being able to land hits on them before they do you is a "distinct advantage". But, CAN YOU???

Everyone assumes we won't miss, and so fastest is bestest. But, we DO miss. Everyone does under extreme stress, to a level that most simply will not believe. And this is when people are seriously trying to be fast and aim. Those just trying to be fast (spray & pray) usually get hits only by chance.

I knew of a case where a master marksman, winner of state level police competitions was in a shootout, face to face at a whopping range of 15 feet.

Both he and his opponent emptied their guns, neither one scored a single hit!!
(it did end favorably, as the bad guy, out of ammo surrendered)

For an excellent theatrical version of why fastest alone isn't "bestest", I refer you to the movie, UNFORGIVEN, and the scene where Gene Hackman (the sheriff) tells the eastern due (the writer) the tale of one gunman, who was the fastest, but died anyway, as while he was faster, he wasn't accurate, and his (slightly) slower opponent was accurate and killed him.

The fastest SHOT doesn't matter. The fastest vital HIT matters!
 
To quote the one armed deputy from Unforgiven

"Well I just don't want to be killed for lack of shootin' back."
 
And in the spirit of the thread and The Unforgiven a "free one" should really be more like a "free fifty" because one might not be enough.
 
Why an average of two for Civilians versus a bunch fired for LEO's??

1. Cops RARELY go to the range, until the week before quals. Sorry, its true.
The few cops who do show regular are usually other gun enthusiasts or SWAT.

2. Before Children I went to the range multiple times a week, shooting four different disciplines...
After Kids, once a month if lucky...(dangit)...and my ammo budget is generally one box a month ;)
Can't even remember when the last SASS/GSSF/IPSC/IDPA meet I attended was...
So now I go, shoot VERY carefully, and notice that I'm still hitting the mark nicely with a low round count...
Slow is smooth, smooth is fast. Consistancy is Key. Build the basics and you get the results.

3. Spray & Pray...
Last gunfight I attended (at a distance) involved 5 officers shooting over 80 rounds at one suspect...
Suspect was unhurt, but ran out of ammo and was then tackled....
However, one officer managed to shoot another IN THE BUTT!! I kid you not...in the buttcheek.
Final Score, Cops 0 of 80, Bad Guy 0 of 15, Friendly Fire 1 for 1.
Considering it was a BigBox hardware store parking lot, I am still amazed no bystanders were shot...

4. Brutal honesty...
Most civilians have spent time thinking about What If BG comes in my house/attacks me in a parking lot/etc...
and have decided to end that MF right there on the spot...which is a huge tactical advantage...
they have already committed and trained for a specific course of action...If A, then B, C, or D, boom boom boom.
Whereas cops are often hampered by worry, doubt, uncertainty, etc...and MISS, often due to those issues.
And there's the whole thing going on now, which is getting a lot of cops killed due to DOUBT and WORRY...
so instead of reacting properly to threats, they're second- and third- guessing themselves, which ain't good...
and they are dying daily because of it.

5. Not really wanting to kill...
Civilians who own guns, again, have already thought it out & decided on their course of action.
Being willing, trained, ready, and able makes one calmer & more accurate.
Most Cops, are NOT, well, like Sgt. Tackleberry. Most are there to Protect & Serve...
and most believe that weaponized violence should be the tool of last resort...
which they have to, otherwise they get to have long chats with IAD, which are No Fun ;)

Could go on about this subject all night, but heck, got stuff to do ;)
 
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