I think there is information in the data, but it is going to take people who are skilled scientists to make sense of it.
I also believe it will take money to do that, and I don't think anyone right now is motivated to fund an actual study of the data.
Neither weapons nor ammunition manufacturers would fund a study because there is no profit in it. Is Winchester 100% sure that their brand of ammo is going to “outperform” Federal, Remington, Cor-Bon and all others… each and every time in all tests? Probably not, and the same can be said for Remington and Federal. Plus I don’t think these companies have the deep pockets to fund a study. If their brand of ammo did prove superior - could they sell enough "Golden Talon Super Stopper" rounds to pay for the study? Probably not...
Then that leaves some organization – like a very large law enforcement agency or association to fund some kind of study of the data.
Unfortunately, the LEA with the deepest pockets and most money available for this sort of thing already did a study. The FBI decided that useful data could be gathered by analyzing bullet performance in calibrated ordinance gelatin, and that there was a valid statistical correlation between trajectory, penetration and expansion of a projectile in gelatin and effectiveness against human beings.
I think at this point – for the FBI to fund additional research into determining bullet effectiveness could be fairly characterized as a waste of tax payer money. The same could be said of any law enforcement agency. The obvious answer to their request for money to study the data would be “The FBI already did that work. Why don’t you use what they use? It’s obviously working for the FBI.”
Maybe I’m missing something but it doesn’t seem like there is any likely source of funding for examining the data.
In all cases, it takes money to go through the data with scientific tools and methodologies. However, there certainly is money to be made by anyone who can haphazardly slap categories on this data and opine about it in a book or magazine. Failing that – they can start their own blog or website. Unfortunately, I don’t think the shooting community is well served by people like Greg Ellifritz, or Evan Marshall and Ed Sanow… or the next Greg Ellifritz…
You still hear the erroneous ideas kicking around in all the forums today “knock-down power”, “stopping power”, “Success rate”, “one-shot-stop”. I can Google an ammunition round and in 5 minutes find some blog or website that will have a long list of ammunition calibers and brands with a percentage next to them that says “Street Success Percentage” So, the danger is that the original faulty analysis that led to all of this just gets repeated as fact and people believe it nearly as such. I think you’d have to work in a gun store to see the effect it has on the general public and their buying decision, although I think we see it here on the forum to some extent when someone joins and says “Buying my first gun.” We hear some of the same stuff – guys who are looking to buy this that or the other because: “It’s got proven stopping power”, or this round has the highest “street success rate” (hopefully if you ever have to use it you’ll be on a street and not in a building). There probably is a very good decision process for making your first handgun purchase, and it’s been talked about on this forum - So first time gun buyers should take some classes, educate themselves about different firearms, learn about calibers, rent a whole lot of different firearms and see what they like, what they don’t like and why… But I think few people do that. I think it’s more likely that they Google “Best gun” And “most powerful gun” and they go from there…
Thankfully, major law enforcement agencies have stopped listening to the uninformed amateur analysis of shootings conducted by Evan Marshall, Ed Sanow, and others – including this Greg Ellifritz. I think a lot of agencies rely on the previous work of the FBI, but even when they don’t simply choose what the FBI chose - for most agencies now, they rely on the same methods, and because of that they rely on the opinions of degreed experts in the field. The law enforcement agencies have been putting more stock in the advice of people like Dr. Gary Roberts and Dr. Martin Fackler.
I don’t think this is going to change for a very long time.
There is a thread on here about “The Future of .40 cal in Law Enforcement” or something like that. I personally think that as time goes by, the .40 S&W is proving to be a “good” handgun round for LE. Unless there is some major event that challenges that. .40 is here to stay.
If you look at the 1986 Miami shootout – that was a pivotal event that led to funding for a major study of ballistics and handgun effectiveness, and resulted in a major paradigm shift for the majority of law enforcement agencies in the U.S.
I’m saying all this just to say that given this long history, and the seriousness of it – law enforcement agencies are not going to listen to people like Ellifritz.