Firearm Stopping Power…a different perspective.

wildangel1955 said:
I was very disappointed that your link to the "best" 1911 article does not work.

Welcome to The Firing Line, wildangel1955!

I've looked at that link before, and even looked at it just a couple of days ago. It was working then, and I suspect that it will be back up before long.
 
After re-reading the "study", I am wondering what Greg Ellifritz means when he calculates one shot stop percentage. How can a one shot stop be something calculated using number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took?

Quote:
• One shot stop percentage- number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall’s number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number. - Mello2u
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Exactly... I read that and said "wha? :confused:

It's not the only place where his verbiage and/or terminology is confusing.
 
Arg, where to begin. Putting the 357 mag and 357 sig in the same group would, on the surface say that he is cherry picking which results to include.

I carried a 357 back when most cops carried 38's and lead RN and LSWC was the most common bullet. I was a big city cop during the 80's ( Fort Worth, Texas), and have been with the US BP for over 20 years. I have seen a lot of shootings from everything you can imagine.

I have read everything I could find during the last 30 years on stopping power, terminal effectiveness etc because I wanted to be the best prepared I could be.

If I were to analyze this information into useful intelligence it comes down to this:

I carry the biggest, most powerful weapon I can conceal and get consistent hits with. For me that falls includes, 1911 45, S&W K frame 357 snubby, Glock 40. That being said I never bowed to the alter of the 125 357 as a death ray. It was really a johnny come lately to the 357 magnum scene. I like heavy for caliber bullets, especially for the 357, 41 and 44 magnums, I like big and fast.

There is so much information and so many variables. If it comes to it I wanna use the biggest hammer I can reliably hit with until the threat is no longer a threat,while being able to engage multiple threats.

In everything there is a compromise. Any service cartridge with any good HP will work about as well as any other. I do believe that magnum revolvers are better stoppers, they just take more dedication to become proficient.
 
Nanuk,

Over all those years and shootings, did the hollow points always expand, or were there problems? And have some of the newer designs cured those problems in your estimation?

Thanks in advance.
 
A collection of anecdotal info isn't a study

Some of the selective data, and certainly the methodology and some of the calculated figures are suspect. However, the one most important premise is, as always, you have to hit the target or it doesn't matter what you're shooting. (Well, except for the BG who might run away rather than return fire and doesn't know you can't hit the broadside of a barn).

I'd add a note on bullet size - i prefer bigger bullets, both for the larger holes they make and the additional momentum (not energy) they carry. A standard 45ACP +P has about 25% less energy than a .357 mag, but generates about 14% more momentum (ie., an object in motion...). Meaning it is more likely to knock you down.

A 16lb bowling ball rolling 20mph has the same energy of a ping pong ball going 260 mph, but it has 15 times the momentum. Which one would feel better slamming into your chest? Likewise, a baseball going 90 mph carries the same energy as a ping pong ball going 675 mph, but has 7 times the momentum. Not sure what 675 mph ping pong ball impact would feel like, but i know what a 90 mph fastball feels like. I'd take the ping pong ball. Especially if a sensitive area were involved.

Just my opinion.
 
"Over all those years and shootings, did the hollow points always expand, or were there problems? And have some of the newer designs cured those problems in your estimation?

Thanks in advance. "

No they did not. I believe newer designs are better, but no handgun is 100%. A handgun is a last ditch defensive weapon. I have seen people hit with cars run off. I think hunting gives us a good perspective, not every animal (deer for example) reacts the same way from the same wound. Sure a 22lr will kill a whitetail deer stone cold dead, but is that what most people use?
 
Let's get together ...

Very little correct conclusion comes from popular consensus. As they have said, "Show us YOUR data." L1S1
 
There is calculated information that can show (indicate) which cartridges are most effective. I know that some, and perhaps many, of you have heard of the Hatcher Formula. It was worked up by Julian Hatcher in 1927 and modified in 1934. His formula takes into consideration bullet mass, velocity, cross-sectional area (frontal surface) and bullet shape. The formula then calculates Relative Stopping Power. Tops on the list, which doesn't reflect some of the monster pistol rounds of today, are: 44 Mag, 41 Mag, 45 Colt, 45 ACP, and then the 44-40. Note that all of them are large caliber bullets, and all shoot heavy bullets in the 210 to 255 grain range. The calculation makes sense to me (my Engineering mind), and I'm a believer. If you have to shoot somebody, do it with a 44 or 45 caliber bullet moving at 1000 fps. That'll do it for ya. And I should mention that the RSP of the 9 mm Luger cartridge is approximately 20% of the RSP of the 44 Mag.

And read up on the Thompson-La Garde study that gave us the 45 ACP.
 
Daugherty16,

Momentum merely states the amount of movement an object carries. It dictates how much speed it can pass on trough other objects. It also implies what the recoil is of your gun. Now I'm gonna say it, knowing lots of people have said it before me:

BULLET MOMENTUM DOES NOT MATTER ON A HUMAN

why? Do the math with me:
Let's take a 13 grams 44 magnum bullet travelling at 495 m/s, the momentum would be:

p = m*v = 6.435 Kg*m/s

The moment it hits a 75 kg man, we assume it expands and sticks with the body.

p_bullet = p_man
so
v_man = 0.0858 m/s ( 0.1919 miles per hour for the old fashioned )

This is totally neglectable. Energy however does matter, and not in the energy-dump theory kind of way, which is utter bull****, but when a bullet enters a body, the flesh will react with a force F_resistance in relation to the bullets velocity. We have:

F_resistance * x_penetration = Energy

The smaller and more streamlined the bullet, the smaller F_resistance will be, giving the most penetration. As energy is

E = m*v²/2

this equation favours velocity much more then momentum.

So let's say we get a certain amount of momentum to our disposal which we can part between mass and velocity just as we like, then a slight increase in velocity wouldn't cause to much fuzz with the momentum, but would greatly increase energy and thus, penetration.

To sum all this up: given that a certain round doesn't suffer from shortcoming or excessive penetration, the round with the smallest momentum has an edge by having less recoil.
 
Make no mistake about it. A ping pong ball hits you going 675 MPH, you are going down.

A ping pong ball weights 2.7 grams which is about 42 grains, or about that of a .22 lr bullet. 675 mph is 990 fps.

A ping pong ball at 675 would sting a lot. It would not knock you down.
 
Not to rain on anyone's theory or his favorite caliber, the most important thing is to hit the right spot. Shot placement!!!!!! :D
 
So let's say we get a certain amount of momentum to our disposal which we can part between mass and velocity just as we like, then a slight increase in velocity wouldn't cause to much fuzz with the momentum, but would greatly increase energy and thus, penetration.
9 ball you seem to have a good grasp on the calculations but are failing with the practical application.
penatration is a factor of stopping the foward momentum of the projectile.
A bullet with higher momentum will almost always out penatrate a bullet with less momentum even when it has less energy when other factors ie diameter and expansion remain similar.
158gr 357s will out penatrate 125gr, 147gr 9mm will out penatrate 115gr and 230 gr 45 acp will out penatrate 185gr even though the lighter bullets have more energy.
 
:confused:considering the age of the world and how long guns have been around, sharp sticks and blades have killed more people than guns no matter what caliber.
 
Id like to see them separate them out more. Combining things like a 410 shot gun and a 12ga make the shot gun section less accurate. Even putting semi similar rounds like the 357 sig and 357 magnum together make the data less accurate.
 
There are a good many branches of science that do not require that the results of the object of study be replicated in a lab. Astronomy, geology, the study of tornadoes, the movement of tectonic plates and a good deal more. What they do rely on is accurate observation and careful attention to the details. There is not enough of that in this short article by Ellifritz to qualify it as a "study". It is an opinion piece with some data added (that data may or may not be accurate we have no way of knowing) to back up the opinions.

Look at one point he makes here, just as an example of what I mean...

The average number of rounds until incapacitation was also remarkably similar between calibers. All the common defensive calibers required around 2 rounds on average to incapacitate.

How does he know this? He provides us with no information that shows that it was the second, and not the first or third round, that "incapacitated" the person who was shot. If the person was shot with a rapid double tap to the chest how does Ellifritz know that it was the second round and not the first that did the actual "incapacitating"? Yet he says here that for sure it took two rounds "on average" to incapacitate.

The entire article is filled with a number of such statements that just do not show signs of accurate observation. For example; he makes no distinction between bullet type. Ball, jhp, LSWC, etc. all the same to him. No difference either in bullet weight. He combines all types shotguns together and all centerfire rifles together. He combines the 22short, long and lr together. He tosses carelessly the 357 Sig and 357 Magnum into one pot. etc., etc.

As for the rest will you really feel better armed with a gun carrying 32 acp or 380acp than a 40S&W or a 45acp? According to Ellifritz's figures the 32acp has a better record than the 45acp or the 44 Magnum. This must be true of course because he also shows that any round from a .22 short/long/ or long rifle is a better stopper than the 45acp.

tipoc
 
I think there is information in the data, but it is going to take people who are skilled scientists to make sense of it.

I also believe it will take money to do that, and I don't think anyone right now is motivated to fund an actual study of the data.

Neither weapons nor ammunition manufacturers would fund a study because there is no profit in it. Is Winchester 100% sure that their brand of ammo is going to “outperform” Federal, Remington, Cor-Bon and all others… each and every time in all tests? Probably not, and the same can be said for Remington and Federal. Plus I don’t think these companies have the deep pockets to fund a study. If their brand of ammo did prove superior - could they sell enough "Golden Talon Super Stopper" rounds to pay for the study? Probably not...

Then that leaves some organization – like a very large law enforcement agency or association to fund some kind of study of the data.

Unfortunately, the LEA with the deepest pockets and most money available for this sort of thing already did a study. The FBI decided that useful data could be gathered by analyzing bullet performance in calibrated ordinance gelatin, and that there was a valid statistical correlation between trajectory, penetration and expansion of a projectile in gelatin and effectiveness against human beings.

I think at this point – for the FBI to fund additional research into determining bullet effectiveness could be fairly characterized as a waste of tax payer money. The same could be said of any law enforcement agency. The obvious answer to their request for money to study the data would be “The FBI already did that work. Why don’t you use what they use? It’s obviously working for the FBI.”

Maybe I’m missing something but it doesn’t seem like there is any likely source of funding for examining the data.

In all cases, it takes money to go through the data with scientific tools and methodologies. However, there certainly is money to be made by anyone who can haphazardly slap categories on this data and opine about it in a book or magazine. Failing that – they can start their own blog or website. Unfortunately, I don’t think the shooting community is well served by people like Greg Ellifritz, or Evan Marshall and Ed Sanow… or the next Greg Ellifritz…

You still hear the erroneous ideas kicking around in all the forums today “knock-down power”, “stopping power”, “Success rate”, “one-shot-stop”. I can Google an ammunition round and in 5 minutes find some blog or website that will have a long list of ammunition calibers and brands with a percentage next to them that says “Street Success Percentage” So, the danger is that the original faulty analysis that led to all of this just gets repeated as fact and people believe it nearly as such. I think you’d have to work in a gun store to see the effect it has on the general public and their buying decision, although I think we see it here on the forum to some extent when someone joins and says “Buying my first gun.” We hear some of the same stuff – guys who are looking to buy this that or the other because: “It’s got proven stopping power”, or this round has the highest “street success rate” (hopefully if you ever have to use it you’ll be on a street and not in a building). There probably is a very good decision process for making your first handgun purchase, and it’s been talked about on this forum - So first time gun buyers should take some classes, educate themselves about different firearms, learn about calibers, rent a whole lot of different firearms and see what they like, what they don’t like and why… But I think few people do that. I think it’s more likely that they Google “Best gun” And “most powerful gun” and they go from there…

Thankfully, major law enforcement agencies have stopped listening to the uninformed amateur analysis of shootings conducted by Evan Marshall, Ed Sanow, and others – including this Greg Ellifritz. I think a lot of agencies rely on the previous work of the FBI, but even when they don’t simply choose what the FBI chose - for most agencies now, they rely on the same methods, and because of that they rely on the opinions of degreed experts in the field. The law enforcement agencies have been putting more stock in the advice of people like Dr. Gary Roberts and Dr. Martin Fackler.

I don’t think this is going to change for a very long time.

There is a thread on here about “The Future of .40 cal in Law Enforcement” or something like that. I personally think that as time goes by, the .40 S&W is proving to be a “good” handgun round for LE. Unless there is some major event that challenges that. .40 is here to stay.

If you look at the 1986 Miami shootout – that was a pivotal event that led to funding for a major study of ballistics and handgun effectiveness, and resulted in a major paradigm shift for the majority of law enforcement agencies in the U.S.

I’m saying all this just to say that given this long history, and the seriousness of it – law enforcement agencies are not going to listen to people like Ellifritz.
 
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What none of this data gives you is the skill of the shooter at the particular moment in time. For example body shots, its ok to use this but without breaking it down a little more the body outside of the head covers a wide ground.

So what if it happens the guys with the 380's practice more often than the guys with the 9mm (pick any round you choose) or the higher recoil of the 9mm equals less accuracy under stress. It could be true, but I have no way to know for sure.

Then again the guys carrying the 44 Magnums with much higher recoil seemed to have fared the best so maybe we all now just need to step up to a more powerful gun.

We can never get to a reasonable bottom line without more specific information and with today’s technology there is certainly the means to do digital or corpse based research.

The only other reasonable measure I can think is to use physics but that rapidly ticks off the guys that like the smaller calibers as light and fast eventually loses to heavy and fast. Yet again in the final analysis it has to be noted that even a 17 HMR can be lethal and a 500 Magnum can surely miss like any other weapon.

Keeping safety in mind we also have to think about penetration and over penetration.

The bottom line is certainly if we could shoot two or more different calibers on the exact same spot (with the path through body remaining the same) on the exact same animal (if such a thing were ever possible) then certainly some rounds are going to be shown to be more effective than others.

But sake of social graces we all try to pretend that they are equally effective due to modern super ammo.

The problem with the super ammo theory is and always has been is that all the guns have super ammo available or you can hand load it to this point. However each caliber is designed to work within a certain specification and the fact is some rounds are simply more energetic and heavier than others and thus they take more mass to stop them.

You can certainly take life with any gun but don’t kid yourself that a 380 has the same potential for lethality as a 500 magnum if the two are shot exactly the same on exactly the same target. The end result of both rounds could be the same but the amount of energy and destruction will be dictated by the physics involved and not someones dream that a particular gun was deadly based off someone likeing it.
 
9 ball you seem to have a good grasp on the calculations but are failing with the practical application.
penatration is a factor of stopping the foward momentum of the projectile.
Not really, no. His grasp of calculations seem quite shaky. Momentum must be conserved. All forms of energy must be conserved as whole, but mechanical energy does not have to be conserved by itself. That bullet kinetic energy could, for instance, be converted to heat instead. The 44 magnum bullet used in 9ball's illustration would heat an 8oz cup of coffee up about 4 degrees F if completely converted to heat. That's not very much, is it?

One of the first rules of studying collisions and impacts is that you don't use energy unless the collision is perfectly elastic, you use momentum. Shooting someone with a bullet is not a perfectly elastic collision. So this equation is an inappropriate simplification:
F_resistance * x_penetration = Energy
It's also inappropriate because F-resistance is actually based on the drag equation which is also function of velocity squared just like kinetic energy. F-resistance is essentially proportional to kinetic energy so increasing kinetic energy doesn't buy you as much as you'd think. This is why when you want more penetration you generally switch to a heavier bullet. More mass that you have to slow down, less velocity that actually helps the bullet bleed energy off faster through drag.

And on a completely unrelated comment, the average shots to incapacitation is probably more closely related to a guns ammunition capacity than to bullet performance. Back when the police were moving to autoloaders, lots of people commented that the move was unnecessary because cops only fired an average of two shots in an engagement. The problem with that number is that cops almost never fired two shots in an engagement. They most often fired one shot (say 80% of the time) or completely emptied their revolver with 6 shots (say the other 20%). The average of those two behaviors worked out to two shots per engagement, but two shots wasn't actually a typical behavior.

This same behavior appears to be showing up in the rounds-to-incapacitation figures. Revolver and pocket pistol ammunition has lower average rounds. The rounds fired from high capacity service pistols like 9mm and 40 S&W have higher rounds-to-incapacitation averages. This is because the 9mm and 40 S&W guns have more shots and some shooters will make use of them to ensure that their targets are incapacitated.
 
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