People's Mathematical Skills Never Cease to Amaze me...
What 'tipoc' quoted was that he generally experienced a .22lr misfire or malfunction once in about every 300 rounds. However, he came to expect it around once in every 200, allowing himself the benefit of not being surprised or taken back if a malfunction came before expected. This is wise, and as sheepdogs, we all tend to think like this.
Just for reference 1/200 does not equal 2%. It equals 0.5% And this figure is the "inflated" probable rate of failure.
Just for the sake of the argument, I'll round everything up.
In my state, there are around 1/300 people that even have a permit to carry their weapons. This is a very VERY conservative estimate found in a relatively reliable online article.
Of those people carrying their weapons, less than 10% carry to a very high degree (i.e. every day) if at all. So we'll round up and say that you have a 1/8 chance of carrying your gun.
As of the current climate in my state, the average violent crime per capita rate is about 1/215 per year.
Of the instances of violent crime which involves the drawing of a firearm, well over 90% of the confrontations are solved by the presentation of the firearm alone without discharge. We'll give the benefit of the doubt on that one and call it 1/10 that involved actually firing the gun.
So, in a given year, carrying a .22lr for defense my chances of actually having to fire my gun in a confrontation is about 1/5,160,000.
Of that, the "inflated" probable rate of failure for the cartridge I would be using if I were using low-grade ammunition, is 0.5% or .005, or 1/200
My chances of even HAVING a misfire in this situation? 1/1,032,000,000
Oh, and keep in mind, this was all EXTREMELY conservative.
~LT
Oh, and keep in mind, TAP-RACK-BANG! or simply pull your revolver's trigger again.
-Because the chances of your next round being a misfire... 1/206,400,000,000
That's 1 in Two Hundred and Six Trillion, Four Hundred Billion to those who can't read significant figures.
I'll bet if you went to Vegas, you'd sit in front of a single slot machine for a week.