I think the "Head Fellas" at your local gun shop is telling you this to get you convinced that they HAVE to charge you $30-$50 a box for ammo WHEN they get it in. The truth is, the MANUFACTURERS have not told them that they won't be getting their orders filled this year. Why do I say that? Because chances are, they DON'T order from the manufacturer. Even walmart doesn't buy DIRECTLY from Winchester, Remington, etc... They buy through distributors. Now maybe your local gun dealer's distributor is telling your gun store own this stuff, but it isn't Winchester, Federal, Remington, etc... telling them this.
Also; if ANY of this situation was happening because of the manufacturers; which only the production supply is their issue; then EVERYONE would be charging outrageous prices; but they aren't. In the last 3 weeks, I have bought ammo from Walmart, Dick's, and Academy. The average price of 45acp value pack was $29. That's roughly $15 for a box 50. I bought 380; YES 380 for $16 a box of 50. 32auto for $18 a box of 50. 22LR for $16 for a brick of 500. 30-30 for $14 a box of 20. Guess what???? Walmart, Dick's, and Academy aren't purposely take a LOSS in their ammo sales because they like you. The HIGH prices you are buying at are because your gun shops and distributors CAN charge that, and YOU WILL PAY it. Walmart, Dick's, Academy, and many others sell at the prices they do based on a pre-figured markup percentage. So that right there should tell you that the manufacturers AREN'T the ones cranking up the prices.
And we haven't even gotten to the online internet prices yet. With VERY LITTLE LOOKING, you can still get ammunition online from $11-$12 for 9mm up to $23 for 380. YES, you can find 380. So that too tells me that it isn't the manufacturers.
All of you, ALL OF US, need to keep these LOCAL gun shops in our memory. Do a little research. Look online. Find some of the stores that AREN'T RAPING YOU. Then when you find your decent source of ammo; go back to the local gun shop that you believe "REALLY CARES" about you. Tell them what you found. Tell them that you aren't asking for them to change prices. Tell them you just wanted to let them know why they WON'T be seeing you in their store any time soon. Let them know that you'll tell your friends about the "REAL" prices that you can get at other stores and online. Let them know that their little price gouging is going to backfire. Then let them know you'll check back with them in a few months. And the same thing with the gun shows. I went to one of the largest in Denver Colorado this weekend. There was everything there. And even though the prices were outrageous on certain things; people were starting to become more picky with their buying. They weren't buying the CASES of ammo like they were. Those who are still hoarding are doing it; but most people were just looking and buying some of the hard to find ammo. And the consumer is getting smarter. They are deciding to stop plinking with the expensive guns, and just keep them for self defense and home defense. After all; how many people are you planning on shooting. So a couple of boxes is enough. Then they are plinking and practicing with 9mm surplus, 22LR, and other cheap ammo. You can see the look on some of the SELLER'S EYES towards the end of the day when they didn't sell as much as they thought they would. "Hmmm, maybe we bought too much of this stuff (Probably at walmart); and have cranked up the price too much).
Much of the hoarding isn't/wasn't by the actual shooters. It was by the marketeers who are trying to use the political scare tactics to sucker you into believing that you needs to spend $40 on a box of ammunition. Luckily, I have 2 local gun shops that aren't raping their customers. 2 were raping, but in this time of what you'd think was glory for them; both companies went out of business. But the two that are still selling are selling based on their distributor's prices. And when the prices seem too high, we; the customers; have no problem telling them that the prices are too high and that we won't buy it. Some of the ammo is a little high, but we understand the distributors mark up. Even so, most of the popular rounds from 32, 380, 9mm, 40, 10, 38, 357, and 45 all run in the $15-$25 a box range for 50.
Walmart, Dick's, Academy, etc... are your gauge to look at. When walmart starts selling 45acp for $30 a box of 50, then it's probably the manufacturer. But currently, the manufacturers are selling at about the same price that they have since even last summer. Of course there are a couple of retail sporting outlets that are DEFINITELY raping customers. SPORTS AUTHORITY and GANDER MOUNTAIN are 2 that no one should ever buy from. They were doing fine until this ammo scare. Then they thought they could justify and cranked their prices up.