Main Cause of the Current Ammo Shortage?

Saw an interesting statistic today - gun sales are up 95% over last year; but ammo sales are up 139% over last year. So it seems not all those ammo sales are new owners.
 
Bartholomew Roberts said:
So it seems not all those ammo sales are new owners.
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No, but shortages in general have a tendency to become self-propagating. It happened with the Obama-era ammo shortage, and it happened with the COVID-19 toilet paper shortage. There's a bit of a surge in purchases, word gets out that supplies are (or may be getting) tight, and suddenly everyone rushes out to stock up.

The current ammo shortage is like a perfect storm. It is being driven by civil unrest, that has resulted in people who had not previously considered owning a gun suddenly perceiving a need to be armed. And they are smart enough to understand that a gun without ammunition is a poor club ... so in addition to buying a gun they buy ammo.

Contrast that to gun sales. So gun sales are up 95% compared to last year. I'll surmise that not ALL of those extra 95% were sales to first-time gun owners. Many probably were, but probably not all. For those gun sales that went to people who already own firearms -- how often do you buy a gun and buy ammo for it at the same time? For handguns, at least, I'll guess that the vast majority of sales have been 9mm Parabellum. And I'll further conjecture that many were sold to people like members of this forum, who already owned at least one other pistol in 9mm. If they already owned a 9mm, they probably didn't need more ammo ... but ALL of the first-time gun buyers needed to buy ammo with or for their shiny new pistola.

And that may have created enough depletion of ammo stocks to trigger the crisis/shortage reaction, this setting in motion the self-propagating nature of such events.
 
Guys like me,,,

"Main Cause of the Current Ammo Shortage?"

Guys like me who don't ever want to get caught short again,,,
Guys like me who stock up when the opportunity presents itself.

Aarond

.
 
Eh, I’ve been through enough panics now that my big problem is thinking “That’s an insane price. I should sell off some of my stash and restock later.” But I can never bring myself to do it.
 
AIMSurplus has tons of Russian 7.62x39. :eek:

500 rds. just arrived, to keep my reserve at a very high level.

Living 12 min. from the private shooting club, combined with being Retired, consumes lots of ammo.
 
It's not a normal panic or shortage, it's really a perfect storm.

Covid hits, leading to both people stocking up/hoarding (remember the toilet paper run?), and just as importantly it affected the manufacturing and shipment side. I've heard some places temporarily shut down or went to skeleton crews, and have had trouble getting the components and raw material to make/ship more ammo.

When you combine that with the apprehensions normal in a "shutdown of society", similar to hurricane season but spread across the world instead of just a coast, you quickly deplete what was stocked on the shelves. And what's left trickling in from reserves is all we have left.

Then, you toss in the next social crisis- "protests" (read- rioting and looting) popping up around the country, you make a lot of people nervous. Add to the mix the trend to "defund the police", and you get lawlessness + no police protection, which has led to the huge run on guns now (as well as ammo to stock those guns).
That's because a gentle soccer mom thinks avoiding the bad side of town isn't enough and wants a Glock; someone with just handguns now decides he wants an AR.

That's not even considering we're entering an election cycle, which tends to prompt a rush all by itself.

And consider, we aren't yet back to a fully opened society. Manufacturing and shipping of components in, shipping of ammo out- those might still be affected by covid.
 
THe videos of the commune CHOP in Seattle, along with the troubles in Portland for weeks-though it seems to be in a smallish area--are the images which keep many people anxious.

And very limited umbers of those anxious people will ever go to those two cities.

Add to all of that the photos and videos of the St. Louis couple Inside their "gated" community (her handgun was a Toy...his was not).

Many people forgot that the St. Louis mayor, living on a nearby street, had already exposed personal data on some protestors who had caused trouble inside the city....

A guy told me that his neighbors--Far from That area--are Not Bright enough to distinguish between a totally unique event in the walled neighborhood where that specific, unpopular mayor (St. Louis) lives, and the vast numbers of Other neighborhoods where >>>nothing happened<<<.:rolleyes:

The sky is falling!! I would love to sell some very over-priced guns to the dumbasses out there, but there is a glut of guns-- not ammo.
 
If you didn't stash up when there was no panic then you have been "whistling in the graveyard" so to speak.

Get it when you can.
 
It's getting so bad around here that I was talking to a small gun shop owner & he said he may have to close because he can't get enough guns or ammo shipments to stay open. He is not making any $$$ having people come in to look, because he has nothing for them to look at.
 
Ignition Override:
THe videos of the commune CHOP in Seattle, along with the troubles in Portland for weeks-though it seems to be in a smallish area--are the images which keep many people anxious.

And very limited umbers of those anxious people will ever go to those two cities.
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Those aren't the only 2 cities experiencing rioting/"mostly peaceful protesting":
29037094-8374191-George_Floyd_s_killing_reignited_tensions_between_law_enforcemen-a-15_1590947222429.jpg



Add to all of that the photos and videos of the St. Louis couple Inside their "gated" community (her handgun was a Toy...his was not).

Many people forgot that the St. Louis mayor, living on a nearby street, had already exposed personal data on some protestors who had caused trouble inside the city....
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Her gun wasn't a toy, it was an actual firearm. It was surrendered in an inoperable condition, we have no idea what condition it was at the time the trespassers invaded. Also, the mayor lived miles away and not in that gated community.

The sky isn't falling but there are events happening in a continuing and coordinated manner all across the country that have gone far beyond the initial triggering event. Other than that, you were spot on...
 
I’ve been looking for some extra ammo recently because my wife has finally decided to get her LTC but needs to brush up on her skills. I’ve seen ammo shortages before, especially during the Obama years, but this one seems different. I know there have been a lot of new gun buyers due to the Coronavirus outbreak and recent riots, but I thought the run on guns and ammo would’ve slowed down by now. Do any of you guys have any insight on the main cause of this shortage? Did some manufacturers have to shut down due to COVID-19 restrictions, did the new buyers buy more than expected, or is this mainly due to existing gun owners hoarding?
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On any given day there is enough ammunition and enough toilet paper to meet the demand. Now when suddenly a demand surges prompted by any number of things the supply on the shelves rapidly depletes. We have all (pretty much all) seen it before and most of us will see it again. It doesn't really take much if any insight to figure it out. Due to increased demand certain commodities like ammunition and toilet paper vanish from the shelves of retailers and as fast as they are restocked they disappear. Really does not take much to induce a panic buying frenzy.

Ron
 
There are general supply chain issues up and down all kinds of manufacturing. If you are essential; but the guy providing you copper or lead or chemicals isn’t, then you are out of luck. Or your supplier is open but their employees are out sick for two weeks. Or if you are obtaining your base supplies from a country with different shutdown rules, etc.

I think one of the issues driving the urge to reopen was it was just impossible to predict/track all the unintended consequences of selectively closing some businesses but not others.
 
Some posts have gone away.

Let me remind everyone that this is the General Discussion area. Politics is not allowed on this site in general, and certainly not in General Discussion. Please review the forum rules.
 
In addition to ammo, almost any semi-auto pistol, and many other firearms... the latest run is CAP AND BALL REVOLVERS! I am not lying I have watched 1858 remingtons fall out of stock almost everywhere over the past week or so. What the heck, a run on cap and ball revolvers :rolleyes:
 
I have watched 1858 remingtons fall out of stock almost everywhere over the past week or so. What the heck, a run on cap and ball revolvers
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1858 Remington revolvers make a great base to convert a C&B to a .38 special with a drop in conversion.

No FFL is needed to buy them online and have them shipped right to your doorstep.
Same with the conversion unit.
 
My local big box sporting goods store had tons of shotgun ammo for sale but not many defense shotguns. There were many sporting shotguns available, which you could use for defense, but not very practical in some cases.
 
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