Main Cause of the Current Ammo Shortage?

wmg1299 said:
I’ve been looking for some extra ammo recently because my wife has finally decided to get her LTC but needs to brush up on her skills. I’ve seen ammo shortages before, especially during the Obama years, but this one seems different. I know there have been a lot of new gun buyers due to the Coronavirus outbreak and recent riots, but I thought the run on guns and ammo would’ve slowed down by now. Do any of you guys have any insight on the main cause of this shortage? Did some manufacturers have to shut down due to COVID-19 restrictions, did the new buyers buy more than expected, or is this mainly due to existing gun owners hoarding?
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Panic buying.
Is the shortage wide spread, or is ot just isolated regional? My LGS has as much ammo as I have ever seen there. Online seems to have everything. My local Wal Mart is even busting at the seams.
 
KyJim said:
I think it has been worse because first, there was the pandemic.
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I wonder whether this is a large driver. If state imposed commercial restrictions have interfered with distribution and delivery of goods of all kinds, ammunition certainly wouldn't be exempt.

I had thought that after the extraordinary sales of ARs and AR parts in 2016, that market would be well insulated from shortages and price shocks. From the browsing I've done over the last couple of months, that's not so. It isn't a post 2012 drought, but prices are up and lots of common things are out of stock at the least expensive places.
 
the days of buying two or three boxes of ammo is gone, you better buy as much as you can get to at least build a reserve, never shoot your last box

buy it by the case if you can
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This attitude on the part of many people is one reason. Some of us, shooting enthusiasts have always bought ammo in "large" quantities, but now that nearly everyone is doing that, the system can't keep up.

I was much more worried when the stores ran out of toilet paper!

Today's buying panic is different from the previous ones. The Obama scare, etc. only affected people who had guns (and wanted to be able to get more) and those who were considering a gun, getting one "while they still could", and was mostly about those guns most likely to be banned, and their ammo.

Today's panic has a additional element, and, its a huge one. People who never before thought they might need a gun, now realizing that they do, just in case.

Before it was worry about what new restrictions the Govt might put on gun sales, now the worry is about the breakdown of society and basic services due to the virus. people are worried about masses of panicked people doing some kind of Night of the Living dead thing with virus infected "zombies" everywhere.

So, now, with "the end of the world" just over the horizon, and being more credible that some "prepper's fantasy" they think they need a gun (and ammo).

Wouldn't surprise me at all to find a number of anti-gun people trying to get a gun now. The system simply isn't set up to meet the huge surge of demand, and so, shortages. Given enough time (and continued production) things will eventually return to a balance point.

Toilet paper is again available where I shop, eventually, ammo will be, as well.
 
Wouldn't surprise me at all to find a number of anti-gun people trying to get a gun now.
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I read stories about California guns stores dealing with a huge surge of shoppers becoming enraged because they couldn't leave with a gun. One store had a stock response when the customers became angry: "No one in this store voted for that"

I also witnessed here in KY at a Sportsman Warehouse grand opening a guy who stood in line for 5 hours in front of me innocently explaining that he was there to buy a gun for someone else and getting hostile when told it was a crime.

Lots of wakeup calls happening right now.
 
ghbucky said:
I read stories about California guns stores dealing with a huge surge of shoppers becoming enraged because they couldn't leave with a gun. One store had a stock response when the customers became angry: "No one in this store voted for that"

I also witnessed here in KY at a Sportsman Warehouse grand opening a guy who stood in line for 5 hours in front of me innocently explaining that he was there to buy a gun for someone else and getting hostile when told it was a crime.

Lots of wakeup calls happening right now.
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You do realize that liberals and leftists think laws apply to everyone but them. Thats not an insult, that is a defensible observation.
 
Every ammo shortage I've seen (over the past 30 years) has had the same cause and the same resolution.

Cause: Panic buying in excess of what the manufacturers can match with production.
Resolution: People calm down and manufacturers catch up.

Every ammo shortage I've seen has also been "decorated" with conspiracy theories that claim panic buying isn't the cause and it's something much more sinister and strategic. None of them panned out.
 
a guy who stood in line for 5 hours in front of me innocently explaining that he was there to buy a gun for someone else and getting hostile when told it was a crime.
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It's not always a crime. If I had to stand in line for 5 hours, (for anything) I'd be pretty hostile, too!

You can, legally, buy a gun for someone else (assuming they can legally possess it) as a gift. The forms have to be filled out correctly, and some questions answered differently, but it can legally be done.
things get tricksy and if you state YOU are the buyer but your intent is getting the gun for someone else, you could be breaking the law.

Simpler and safer these days to just give the intended the money/gift certificate, and have them buy it (and do the paperwork) for themselves.

As to the cause of the ammo shortage, its simple supply and demand. Just like anything else. Manufacturers produce a supply to meet the AVERAGE demand. IF demand drops drastically, expensive machinery sits idle, costing them money. When demand spikes drastically, such as with the recent panic buying, existing stocks are sold out and there is a lag period before manufacturing can ramp up production to meet the demand. During that time, we have a "shortage".

Its like when the boa constrictor swallows a pig whole. Things get pretty blocked up for a while, but "eventually, this too, shall pass"...:rolleyes:
 
As to the cause of the ammo shortage, its simple supply and demand. Just like anything else. Manufacturers produce a supply to meet the AVERAGE demand. IF demand drops drastically, expensive machinery sits idle, costing them money. When demand spikes drastically, such as with the recent panic buying, existing stocks are sold out and there is a lag period before manufacturing can ramp up production to meet the demand. During that time, we have a "shortage".
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Agreed,and realize tha supply chain the ammo manufacturer relies on is also geared to meet average production.

From the time an order is placed,how long does it take to get a shipping container of powder from Australia?
How long for coils of cartridge brass strips? (I assume blanks are punched out of coiled strips)

Now add the complexity of ship crews,COVID,,and other factors I know nothing about.

What is someplace between sad and amusing,it was not long ago,right here on TFL,was a post complaining about "The Trump Slump" in the gun market.

Zounds!! there was no panic.Life seemed stable. The shelves were filling with stock.

It must be Trump's fault. It is incredible that one Man would have the near infinite power to be the cause of every complaint,real or imagined,in the world.

Wow.Remember when the world was all Utopia,rainbows,and scent free Unicorn farts before Nov 2016?
 
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There's a coming silver lining for all this rush if you're patient: In a few months to a year (look for the vaccine and fed up homeowners shooting (not in the knee) anarchist and being no-billed), then people are going to realize they don't need the guns and ammo as much as rent, food and medications. I've already seen a few near-new / never / little used rifles purchased on local boards and expect more to follow.

Prices of guns and ammo are going to be coming down once people realize COVID-19 and anarchy is chilling.

But we'll see.
 
The wave of millions of new/first time gun owners that has been hitting since March is a very large reason why ammo is practically gone.

To think that 4 months ago we all thought it was going to be a buyer's market for guns by this time, I say if there's anything you've been thinking of selling, there's no better time than now.
 
Depends on where you are. Here in Kali you need to go through a FFL and a background check to get ammo now. Ca. DoJ is "running behind" AND has a better than 1 in 6 false fail rate report coupled with being "back logged". Then there is the typical supply and demand issues....based on steady state supply which we are not dealing with currently.
 
Let's not forget the fact that there are strong demands for the police to be defunded, which is now happening. NY has cut funding by a billion dollars, and the "defunders" still aren't satisfied. There is even talk of it being done at the federal level.

Small wonder that more people are now buying guns! They're realizing after watching the riots on TV what can happen in their own area, especially if the police are no longer going to be there to stop (or stand by and watch) it happen. They know that we may all be responsible for protecting ourselves, with no more "911" to call.
 
ARSG12 said:
Let's not forget the fact that there are strong demands for the police to be defunded, which is now happening. NY has cut funding by a billion dollars, and the "defunders" still aren't satisfied. There is even talk of it being done at the federal level.

Small wonder that more people are now buying guns! They're realizing after watching the riots on TV what can happen in their own area, especially if the police are no longer going to be there to stop (or stand by and watch) it happen. They know that we may all be responsible for protecting ourselves, with no more "911" to call.
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I must admit that I hope they defund the scale police. I would be a welcome sight to see their chicken coops closed.
 
IMHO, all of this 'defund police' talk will vanish in November. The police are simply too important as revenue generators to many of these large cities for them to truly go away.

Reynold's scale police make money for states. They won't give that up.

Meanwhile, the public is responding to what they are hearing by snapping up guns and ammo.

OTOH, I ordered some ammo yesterday morning and had a tracking # in about 45 minutes. I emailed the company commenting on how fast they responded and they told me they had finally worked through their huge surge in orders, so I think we are coming to the end of the scarcity.
 
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