I totally understand your logic.
32acp was popular as it and 9mm came out about the same time. Then 9mm wiped it out. Here, 9mm was an advancement and won the day. Concealed carry didn't exist in the US, then it did and enter the P32 and P3AT. Bye went the 32 acp. 45acp and 40 gained traction, but 9mm came back to win the race once again with Gold Dot, XTP, and HST equaling results of the others without the negatives of either. All .380, 9mm, 40, and 45 FMJ fall within the same penetration spread, so it wasn't FMJ.
So, by this logic, it's possible for a smaller quality HST round to win based on merits. I got it.
Here's where this fails though. Federal says it is not for government or law enforcement. It's for the US concealed carry market. Ok. So scratch all government, police, and military contracts. So the tiny success of 45 GAP and 357 Sig isn't going to be the same for 30S. That's trouble.
Well, the LCP is the number 1 concealed carry gun in the US. Size.
The P365 almost killed the competition immediately to the point that all manufacturers dropped their prices by $100 just to get people to buy their Shield, PPS, LC9, G2, and even the G43. There is a rumored story of Taurus going into a free fall for sells in the US that the company was not looking good for revenue. That's even with the G2/G3 popularity. Enter the under $200 dollar days of the G2.
So. If 30S doesn't come in a smaller LCP sized gun or a thinner than P365 option, it can still be a good advancement, but totally flop.
I haven't even mentioned the 30S currently is listed at 357mag ammo level pricing. Current 357mag pricing could spell doom for 357 revolvers too. We shall see.