Excellent Russia-Georgia Analysis from George Friedman

Those would be the Russian peacekeepers who consistently and conveniently failed to keep the Ossetians from shelling Georgian towns...

While I would tend to agree that the Russians probably didn't bend over backwards stopping the Ossetians, it is worth pointing out that we can't stop people from shelling villages even in countries where we have complete military control over both the targets and the places used to shell those targets.

As noted, some 90% of Ossetians do not want to be a part of Georgia. Even if the U.S. was in Ossetia instead of the Russians, Georgian towns would still be getting shelled intermittently.

If the new standard of peacekeeping is going to be that any failure to protect one population means that someone can roll in with armor, MRLS and fighter jets then the peacekeeping business is about to get really dangerous for everyone involved.

Part of the problem here is that we reversed decades of precedent governing regional conflicts in Europe (no changes of international borders in Europe) under the Clinton administration in order to support Kosovo. The Russians were extremely irate because it was both a change of the well-understood rules and it buried their ally, the Serbs. Now the Russians want to apply the new Kosovo-era rules to Georgia and we are complaining. The Clinton administration dropped the ball by not considering what the effect of this "rule change" would have on the newly emerging former Soviet Republics. The Bush II administration continued the error with a foreign policy that was guaranteed to provoke the Russians and yet not establish any significant counter to them at the same time.

As for the contention that the Russians just hurt themselves bad concerning the Polish thing, I don't see it. First of all, the Poles were so concerned about how Georgia got thumped that they demanded additional guaranties of defense from us before they would accept the deal. Not exactly a resounding approval of our policy in the region or a great comment on our credibility. Second, we just personally committed to defending indefensible terrain in a country that we can't even reach with our major conventional forces and where the total American forces stationed there will be a Patriot missile battery. The best two things I can say about that deal is that Poland would likely be overrun before it became clear to everyone else just how empty our reassurances were. The other one is that the Russians make so much money selling natural gas to Europe that they probably wouldn't want to screw it up over this issue.

Foreign policy wise - we have basically left ourselves with our credibility jugular exposed (much like we did with Georgia), annoyed the Russians much worse than we did with Georgia, and now we are relying on Russian self-interest to prevent our allies from discovering just how little we can do to protect them. Sound like a good strategy to anybody else?
 
RangerHAAF is coorect. I had forgotten about that, pretty sad since I read a Reagan book which discussed it not long ago...

I would still say though it was nothing on the scale of what Russia is doing.

Grenada anyone?

Iran-contra?

CIA backed coup in Guatemala 1954?

CIA backed overthrow of a democratic government and ensuing mass murder, Chile 1973?

With a bit of research I'm sure I can find lots all the way back to Teddy Roosevelt charging up San Juan Hill in 1898.

Central and South America belongs to the US sphere of influence. Period.

The Russians needed to be reminded of that in the Cuban missile crisis. It might be a lesson the US needs to re-learn about the Caucasus.
 
The Russians needed to be reminded of that in the Cuban missile crisis. It might be a lesson the US needs to re-learn about the Caucasus.

What lesson is that? The Russians fortified Cuba well into the '90's. Ground based nukes were removed but bombers and subs still visited, and the nukes went only after we agreed to pull ours out of Turkey.
 
Excellent post, so do I understand what is going on here. It's about Russia taking advantage of the fact that America and Europe are engaged in other conflicts? That this goes back to countries around (Warsaw pact) Russia and their entrance into NATO? That we (America and our weapons) are closer to Russia? That Ossetia is in Georgia, but basically succeeding from Georgia because they are Russians? Even though I don't feel this is our fight I want to understand what and why this is happening. Thanks.
 
I read or heard somewhere that the Russians were going to be placing bombers in Cuba to counter the missle shield in Poland. It makes some sense but I would think that such an airbase would be too close and vulnerable if hostilities were to break out.
 
I read or heard somewhere that the Russians were going to be placing bombers in Cuba to counter the missle shield in Poland. It makes some sense but I would think that such an airbase would be too close and vulnerable if hostilities were to break out.

It makes no sense as far as countering the shield since the missile shield in Poland would do nothing to stop the Russians anyway.

It makes plenty of sense when seen as Russia looking to intimidate nations, project power and reassert dominance in regions it had lost it.
 
Rice: Russian Troops Must Leave Georgia Now

U.S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says Russian troops must immediately withdraw from Georgia under a cease-fire signed by both countries .

Rice reaffirmed U.S. support for Georgia's independence, territorial integrity and democratic system.

Mr. Sakaashvili said Russia had been planning its military operations since NATO put off action in April on Georgia's membership. He said a large part of Georgia remains under Russian occupation, a situation his country will never accept.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also stressed support for Georgia's territorial integrity and called Russian actions in Georgia disproportionate. She spoke after talks in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, who expressed doubt that residents of Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will ever accept being part of Georgia.

The US and Germany are working hand in hand together here. Germany talking with the Russians as advocates of Georgia's territorial integrity while the US stands with Georgia IN Georgia stating Russia MUST leave. While both Russia and Georgia each find the others position 'impossible (in Georgia's words) and 'doubt it will ever be accepted' (in Russia's words).

This area has been part of Russia since Alexander the Great took it. It wasn't a part of the Soviet expansion that collapsed. Russia finds it to be a natural part of their country but as it stands it is not.

The sea port and pipelines are a big part here too. Russia is huge but access to the oceans is sparse for them and regardless of your area if you can't access the seas your stumped economically.

Russian culture from Alexander to now is still one that growth comes via conquest. The rest of the world has abandoned growth via conquest and moved to economic means for growth. Market conquest if you will. Right now Russia sees Georgia as a means to both reestablishment of IT'S territorial integrity AND as means of regaining ports and pipeline to the sea for market conquest.

The rub....let Russia do it and avoid an war while abandoning an ally and potentially giving them a green light in their view to repeat this in other former territories, or stand with Georgia against Russia, THEIR ally CHINA, and our own internal political mealy mouths that will obstruct either course as long as political gain is attainable.

Russia will not back down. It's not in them to do so if there is any way possible, including full force, to avoid it.

Bush isn't going to be around long enough to see anything through on this matter, the next President's administration will be handling this. Talk sweet to Russia and they will see you as lunch............
 
Russia views Georgia the way the US views Cuba, too close for comfort. How is that difficult to understand?

This is one more reason WHY we should not be involved. I understand why Russia feels the way they do and any Americans that were around during the " Cuba Missile Crisis" should as well.
 
Pat Buchanan had an interesting take on the situation. I don't know that I agree with all of it; but I thought it was worth reposting because he does understand how Russians think about that matter and it is clear some of the people here do not see our actions the same way Russia does.

Blowback from Bear Baiting
By Patrick Buchanan

Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to use the opening of the Olympic Games to cover Georgia's invasion of its breakaway province of South Ossetia must rank in stupidity with Gamal Abdel-Nasser's decision to close the Straits of Tiran to Israeli ships.

Nasser's blunder cost him the Sinai in the Six-Day War. Saakashvili's blunder probably means permanent loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

After shelling and attacking what he claims is his own country, killing scores of his own Ossetian citizens and sending tens of thousands fleeing into Russia, Saakashvili's army was whipped back into Georgia in 48 hours.

Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to kick the Georgian army out of Abkhazia, as well, to bomb Tbilisi and to seize Gori, birthplace of Stalin.

Reveling in his status as an intimate of George Bush, Dick Cheney and John McCain, and America's lone democratic ally in the Caucasus, Saakashvili thought he could get away with a lightning coup and present the world with a fait accompli.

Mikheil did not reckon on the rage or resolve of the Bear.

American charges of Russian aggression ring hollow. Georgia started this fight -- Russia finished it. People who start wars don't get to decide how and when they end.

Russia's response was "disproportionate" and "brutal," wailed Bush.

True. But did we not authorize Israel to bomb Lebanon for 35 days in response to a border skirmish where several Israel soldiers were killed and two captured? Was that not many times more "disproportionate"?

Russia has invaded a sovereign country, railed Bush. But did not the United States bomb Serbia for 78 days and invade to force it to surrender a province, Kosovo, to which Serbia had a far greater historic claim than Georgia had to Abkhazia or South Ossetia, both of which prefer Moscow to Tbilisi?

Is not Western hypocrisy astonishing?

When the Soviet Union broke into 15 nations, we celebrated. When Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Kosovo broke from Serbia, we rejoiced. Why, then, the indignation when two provinces, whose peoples are ethnically separate from Georgians and who fought for their independence, should succeed in breaking away?

Are secessions and the dissolution of nations laudable only when they advance the agenda of the neocons, many of who viscerally detest Russia?

That Putin took the occasion of Saakashvili's provocative and stupid stunt to administer an extra dose of punishment is undeniable. But is not Russian anger understandable? For years the West has rubbed Russia's nose in her Cold War defeat and treated her like Weimar Germany.

When Moscow pulled the Red Army out of Europe, closed its bases in Cuba, dissolved the evil empire, let the Soviet Union break up into 15 states, and sought friendship and alliance with the United States, what did we do?

American carpetbaggers colluded with Muscovite Scalawags to loot the Russian nation. Breaking a pledge to Mikhail Gorbachev, we moved our military alliance into Eastern Europe, then onto Russia's doorstep. Six Warsaw Pact nations and three former republics of the Soviet Union are now NATO members.

Bush, Cheney and McCain have pushed to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. This would require the United States to go to war with Russia over Stalin's birthplace and who has sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula and Sebastopol, traditional home of Russia's Black Sea fleet.

When did these become U.S. vital interests, justifying war with Russia?

The United States unilaterally abrogated the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty because our technology was superior, then planned to site anti-missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend against Iranian missiles, though Iran has no ICBMs and no atomic bombs. A Russian counter-offer to have us together put an anti-missile system in Azerbaijan was rejected out of hand.

We built a Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey to cut Russia out. Then we helped dump over regimes friendly to Moscow with democratic "revolutions" in Ukraine and Georgia, and tried to repeat it in Belarus.

Americans have many fine qualities. A capacity to see ourselves as others see us is not high among them.

Imagine a world that never knew Ronald Reagan, where Europe had opted out of the Cold War after Moscow installed those SS-20 missiles east of the Elbe. And Europe had abandoned NATO, told us to go home and become subservient to Moscow.

How would we have reacted if Moscow had brought Western Europe into the Warsaw Pact, established bases in Mexico and Panama, put missile defense radars and rockets in Cuba, and joined with China to build pipelines to transfer Mexican and Venezuelan oil to Pacific ports for shipment to Asia? And cut us out? If there were Russian and Chinese advisers training Latin American armies, the way we are in the former Soviet republics, how would we react? Would we look with bemusement on such Russian behavior?

For a decade, some of us have warned about the folly of getting into Russia's space and getting into Russia's face. The chickens of democratic imperialism have now come home to roost -- in Tbilisi.
 
Spheres of influence

Coming to this a bit late, but... good discussion overall.

Regarding spheres of influence, etc.: the US has intervened militarily (and otherwise, but that's not the issue here) in Latin America probably dozens of times. Just to name a few, in the past century...
Nicaragua
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Nicaragua
On November 18, 1909, U.S. warships were sent to the area after 500 revolutionaries (including two Americans) were executed by order of Zelaya. The U.S. justified the intervention by claiming to protect U.S. lives and property. Zelaya resigned later that year. U.S. Marines occupied Nicaragua from 1912 to 1933, except for a nine month period beginning in 1925.

Dominican Republic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Power_Pack
The United States invasion of the Dominican Republic (code-named Operation Power Pack) occurred in 1965. The Marines landed on April 28 and were later supported by elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division. The intervention ended in September 1966.

Panama
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama
The United States invasion of Panama, codenamed Operation Just Cause, was the invasion of Panama by the United States that deposed general, dictator and de facto Panamanian military leader Manuel Noriega in December 1989, during the administration of U.S. President George H. W. Bush....

The military incursion into Panama began on December 20, 1989, at 0100 local time. The operation involved 57,684 U.S. troops and over 300 aircraft —including the AC-130 Spectre gunship, OA-37B Dragonfly observation and attack aircraft, and the F-117A Nighthawk stealth aircraft flown by the 37th Tactical Fighter Wing, and AH-64 Apache attack helicopter. The invasion of Panama was the first combat deployment for the AH-64, the HMMWV and the F-117A. These were deployed against the 46,000 members of the Panama Defense Force (PDF).

The "basis" that's often given for all this (and a lot more) is the Monroe Doctrine, of course, which was originally intended to discourage European powers from messing around in "our" hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine never had any force of law, either under US law or internationally, but starting roughly with President Grant, it was a convenient rationale for various more or less "imperialist" US adventures in Latin America.
Theodore Roosevelt expounded (1904) what came to be known as the Roosevelt corollary to the Monroe Doctrine; he stated that continued misconduct or disturbance in a Latin American country might force the United States to intervene in order to prevent European intervention. This frankly imperialistic interpretation met much resistance in Latin America but was used extensively during the administrations of Presidents Taft and Wilson to justify intervention in the Caribbean area.
(Columbia Encyclopedia, 2007)

By about 1950, the Monroe Doctrine came to be seen as "politically incorrect," if you will, and was replaced with such notions as "Pan-Americanism," but US policy has de facto continued to assume the right to intervene more or less at will in the affairs of Latin American countries.

So it's fairly hard for us to throw stones at Russia for regarding their "near abroad" as within a similar sphere of influence. They have, if anything, rather more historic justification for this, given their long history of being invaded by one set of foreigners or another. The concept of "buffer states" is probably even more relevant here than "spheres of influence."

And while I respect the desire of the OP, backed up by moderators, to avoid getting into comparisons with the US invasion of Iraq, I don't think it's possible to discuss potential US responses to the Russia/Georgia situation without acknowledging its relevance: the US military is in fact tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan in ways which very much limit our options on the ground. And the Russians surely are well aware of this.
 
The New "Great Game"

Try www.globalresearch.ca for superb research on not just the last week in Georgia but for the past eight years of the entire Caucasus/Caspian Sea Basin.

Russia did NOT invade as is being promulgated in the press. They RETALIATED and justly so. I've been following the goings on of the Caucasus since just before the USSR collapsed and let me tell you, Saakashvili is a thug. I was hoping Spetznaz would have removed him already, but, alas, it was not to be.

Adding military bases around Russia is a recipe for nuclear exchanges. No one should be surprised at all. Too many Americans blindly follow this current administration but look more closely. We raise hell when there is socialist leaning elements in gov'ts in Colombia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Panama, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Cuba and Brasil. Yet we have selective amnesia when we choose to antagonize Russa...

Let's see: we agreed not to coopt nations into NATO when the Soviet Union fell. We lied. Keep in mind that NATO is a military organization. There was Dagestan, Chechnya, Kosovo, then Kosovo again, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and now Georgia. Anyone see a trend?

I've been singing this for some time and it has now come to roost. Perhaps more will listen. It appears not to be though.

Everyone should check out the superb book by a geopolitical madman. The title is The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzrezinski. It can be downloaded free of charge. Search:

"The Grand Chessboard, .pdf"

You will find the outline and details of our foreign policy for Eurasia. Keep in mind that the book was published in 1997. It will read like the headlines of today.

The rest of the world has abandoned growth via conquest and moved to economic means for growth...

How many US bases do we have abroad again??? The UK is in Ireland and the Israelis are in Palestine. Kosovo was carved from Serbia.... Shall we continue???
 
When Moscow pulled the Red Army out of Europe, closed its bases in Cuba, dissolved the evil empire, let the Soviet Union break up into 15 states, and sought friendship and alliance with the United States, what did we do?

This part I agree with. We blew an opportunity to bring Russia into the civilized world in the '90's. They opened everything up and got snubbed. Thank you Bill Clinton!
 
Short of sounding like a liberal, I find all this world un-rest very
unsettling. A war with the Russkies would be terrable. I think a sovern
georga is best and I think the Polish deserve U.S. protection at all cost.

I just feel that WWIII is a helpless and big mistake for us fine Americans.
At any cost. Being a proud American and gun owner will not make a hill of
beans differance in this kind of sittuation.

I would just like to say that religious or not lets just pray that the leaders of this FINE nation guide us away from this kind of outcome.God bless America!!
 
Why does the U.S. support Georgia instead of Russia? Think about it. Why does the U.S.A. support Georgia? Is its basic form of government different from Russia's? Not really much of an organizational difference ie. Russia isn't the U.S.S.R. and Georgia isn't the U.S.S.R. Why does the U.S.A. want to put missles in Georgia and put a NATO ring around Russia? Russia has a legitimate concern about such a situation - and rightly perceives such a move as a threat against Russia's security. Would the U.S. like to see a Russian ring around the U.S.A. ie missles in Mexico with Russian advisors on the Texas border?


The U.S.A./Bush is using the Russian actions in Georgia to distract the world from focusing on the current U.S. wars - to deflect the world's attention from U.S. wars. Unfortunately, for the U.S.A. the world is laughing at the U.S.A.'s hypocrisy.


The Russian people are unified in their support of Russia retaliating against Georgia and the U.S.A.'s interference in the region. Russia is not going to back down. Russia might even up the ante at this point, because the world
is watching...and it's going to be the U.S.A. that backs down.


Georgia is corrupt. It's leader is a thug - a War Criminal and a puppet of the Bush administration. He must be ousted. If the U.S.A. doesn't like it then it can go to the U.N. and complain about it...but Russia has a substantial case...and the U.S.A. has very little credibility at this point in regard to the condemnation of 'wars based on lies' and 'barbaric invasions.'


The U.S.A. cannot say Milosevic is a War Criminal and
that Georgia is not guilty of War Crimes. The U.S.A. cannot present a credible case in regard to the defense of Georgia. Georgia
attacked civilian targets in Ossetia, and Russia zapped Georgia for doing so.
The U.S.A. needs to act like a civilized nation; it can't bully the world and invade nations all over the globe and prop up regimes in every region - and then demand that nations like Russia stop defending their own border.
 
I can't believe the Georgians were so foolish to up the ante over South Ossetia, when over 90% of South Ossetian's, that have their own ethnicity and language by the way, voted overwhelmingly (around two years ago) to have political independence from Georgia. I believe most South Ossetian's have also been willingly taken Russian passports.

For Georgia to be so bellicose over South Ossetia, when South Ossetian's don't want much to do with Georgia and seek Russian protection, AND knowing that Russia are just chomping at the bit for any excuse to pound the ammonia out of Georgia, was an EXTREMELY bad idea. And for what, nationalist pride?
And they surely would not have done so had it not been for Israeli and US weapons and without tacit approval from the US. There are reports of two black soldiers being killed and one Ossetian woman describes troops dressed in black with US patches on their shoulders. Who knows if they are US or Blackwater/Aegis guys but I smell a rat in all of this.

Oil pipelines, specifically the Baku (Azerbaijan)- Tiblisi (Georgia)- Ceyhan (Turkey) Pipeline, and the encirclement of Russia, China and Iran with known and possibly unknown nuclear capabilities is why Russia has responded in the manner that she has.

INFO on MERCS:

Did Mercenaries Help Georgia?

http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/28765

American Mercenary Captured By Russians
NATO instructor taken hostage with Georgians amid reports of U.S. military commanding thousands of mercs in proxy war
http://www.prisonplanet.com/american-mercenary-captured-by-russians.html
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Monday, August 11, 2008

An American mercenary has been captured by Russian forces along with a number of Georgian soldiers according to a report from the Russian news website Izvestia, providing more evidence that the U.S. and NATO are covertly supporting the Georgian army in a proxy war with Russia.

According to the report, the mercenary is an African-American who is a NATO instructor and an ordinance specialist. He has now been transferred to the Russian base of Vladikavkaz.

The story also backs up previous reports of dead black Americans having been found in Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia.

U.S. soldiers recently conducted training programs where they instructed Georgian soldiers how to deal with unexploded ordinance as part of the Georgia Train and Equip Program.

Another report from the Russia daily Kommersant states that thousands of mercenaries from numerous different countries are fighting on the Georgian side and are being “commanded by the U.S. military instructors.”

“The U.S. military instructors directly command and coordinate actions of mercenaries without being involved in actual fighting, the source specified. According to intelligence data, there are roughly 1,000 military instructors of the United States in Georgia,” states the report.

“The task force of Russia has annihilated a few groups of mercenaries. Some of mercenaries have been captured and investigators are working with them, the source said.”

In a related development, Russia FSB has detained 10 Georgian intelligence service officers who were allegedly preparing terrorist attacks inside Russia.

“We have detained 10 agents of the Georgian special services who were spying on military facilities and preparing terrorist attacks, including on Russian territory,” Alexander Bortnikov said at a meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

Russia has today launched new forays into Georgia itself even after Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili signed a cease-fire pledge. Russia claims that Georgia has not honored the cease-fire and continues to attack Russian positions.

U.S. Military Instructors Command Hirelings in Georgia
http://kommersant.com/p-13081/mercenaries_Georgia_U.S._instructor
August 11, 2008

Thousands of mercenaries are fighting for Georgia in this burning conflict with South Ossetia. They are commanded by the U.S. military instructors, RIA Novosti reported with reference to a high-ranked officer of Russia’s military intelligence.

“From 2,500 to 3,000 mercenaries fight against Russia’s peacekeepers on behalf of Georgia,” the unnamed source said. Amid them are the natives of Ukraine, some Baltic states and the Caucasus regions.

The U.S. military instructors directly command and coordinate actions of mercenaries without being involved in actual fighting, the source specified. According to intelligence data, there are roughly 1,000 military instructors of the United States in Georgia.

Task force of Russia has annihilated a few groups of mercenaries. Some of mercenaries have been captured, and investigators are working with them, the source said.

U.S. Troops Still in Georgia
http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=56704
By John Vandiver, Stars and Stripes
Mideast edition, Tuesday, August 12, 2008

U.S. personnel responsible for training members of the Georgian military remain stationed inside the volatile country, where fighting erupted Friday between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway province of South Ossetia.

The U.S. European Command said on Monday that there were no plans at this time to withdraw the U.S. military trainers from the country. There are still 127 U.S. trainers in Georgia, where the American forces had been preparing the Georgian army for operations in Iraq.

Meanwhile, U.S. civilians started to make their way out of the country over the weekend, according to the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi.

Convoys carrying family members of diplomats, government workers and ordinary citizens bound for the embassy in neighboring Armenia continued on Monday.

Tom Mittnacht, a spokesman at the U.S. Embassy in Armenia, said the office was not releasing the number of evacuees it has received so far. But the numbers do not seem to be exceptionally large.

“We’re working on a few convoys,” Mittnacht said.

Upon arrival in Armenia, families are taking up residence in hotels while they wait things out.

“We’re here to provide them with any assistance we can,” Mittnacht said.

Regarding the military personnel, EUCOM stated that they are not engaged in the conflict and are removed from where the fighting is happening.

In addition to the trainers, 1,000 soldiers from the Vicenza, Italy-based Southern European Task Force (Airborne) and the Kaiserslautern-based 21st Theater Sustainment Command, along with Marine reservists with the 3rd Battalion, 25th Marines out of Ohio, and the state of Georgia’s Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 121st Infantry recently participated in “Immediate Response 2008.”

That exercise, which had the U.S. troops operating from Vaziani, concluded on Thursday. That base, near the capital of Tbilisi, was bombed by Russian aircraft over the weekend, Georgian officials said.

As for the roughly 2,000 Georgians currently deployed to Iraq, they are now being redeployed to their home country for support. The first of those soldiers departed Iraq over the weekend, according to the military.
The Georgians had made up the third-largest contingent of foreign troops in Iraq.

Russian Troops Report US And Israeli Soldiers Killed In Georgian War
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1125.htm
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers (Traducción al Español abajo)

We have received our first report from Sister Nikolaevna who had traveled from Moscow to Vladikavkaz to assist in the aiding of the refuge children that have been pouring into Russia from South Ossetia after the brutal Georgian destruction of their homeland, and which details that ‘many’ foreign fighters have been killed after Russian Military units began their liberation of both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

According to staff officers accompanying Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn returning from the battlefront, at least 7 foreign fighters identified as American and Israel soldiers have been found among the rubble of the now freed, but destroyed, capital city of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali.

The 3 dead American soldiers, these reports state, were identified by their uniform patches as belonging to the United States 173 Airborne Brigade assigned to the US’ Southern European Command, and who just a few weeks ago were airlifted to Georgia for what was described as a ‘war game’ exercise with Georgian Military Forces preparing for their unprovoked attack upon the Russian peoples of South Ossetia.

The 4 dead Israeli soldiers, these reports continue, are believed to part of the Israeli governments sponsored mercenary forces who have previously wreaked havoc in the US protected South American puppet state of Colombia, and to which Israel is now its largest weapons supplier.

Israel has, likewise, become the United States choice for funneling weapons to Georgian Military Forces, but are attempting to quickly back away from their part in this most unnecessary war, and as we can read as reported by the Haaretz News Service:

“Israel is hoping to maintain a low profile with regard to the war in Georgia, government officials told Haaretz. One source noted that currently, neither side of the conflict is pleased with Israel's position, since Russia has been irked by Israeli-Georgian weapons deals for some time, and Tbilisi is now frustrated by Israel's decision to halt arms exports.”

Russia’s chairman of the State Duma Committee for Security, Vladimir Vasilyev, was quick to blast the Americans by stating, “The things that were happening in Kosovo, the things that were happening in Iraq – we are now following the same path. The further the situation unfolds, the more the world will understand that Georgia would never be able to do all this without America. South Ossetian defense officials used to make statements about imminent aggression from Georgia, but the latter denied everything, whereas the US Department of State released no comments on the matter. In essence, they have prepared the force, which destroys everything in South Ossetia, attacks civilians and hospitals. They are responsible for this. The world community will learn about it.”

Unfortunately, however, the peoples of the Western World, especially the United States, are not being told the truth about this war, and Georgia’s unprovoked attack upon South Ossetia and, instead, are being told by their propaganda media organs that Russia is the aggressor in this conflict, though Russian forces have done nothing more than what any sovereign Nation would do when invaded by a foreign military who began mass killings of civilians.

Russian Leaders Putin and Medvedev are, also, reported to be enraged by the United States providing an immediate airlift for Georgian Military Forces serving in Iraq, and which Military Analysts states make the United States an active participant in this war.

To the most unfortunate outcome of this new war for the American people is how, once again, they have been lied to by their War Leaders to support a brutal dictatorship, and as best pointed out by the AntiWar News Service:

“What's particularly disgusting is the spectacle of the fraudulent Saakashvili's smug mug all over Western television – the BBC and Bloomberg, for starters – invoking his great love of "democracy" and "freedom" and calling on the U.S. to intervene in the name of supposedly shared "values." What drivel! Up until very recently, Saakashvili has been busy rounding up his political opponents and charging them with espionage, as his police beat demonstrators in the streets. When this happened, even our somnolent media sat up and took notice, but they seem to have forgotten.

Saakashvili uses the Western media as a platform to broadcast his great love for "freedom" and make the case against the Russian "aggressors," comparing the present conflict with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s – and even the bloody 1956 repression of the Hungarians! This is nonsense. Russia is not the Soviet Union, the Iron Curtain has long since been melted down for scrap metal, and, if anything, Saakashvili resembles the Hungarian satraps of the Kremlin rather than the heroic freedom-fighters, given his absolute fealty to his foreign masters in Washington, to whom he appeals for help in putting down an internal rebellion.”

As today brings to our senses another senseless slaughter of innocent civilians, and young soldiers doing the bidding of their Nations masters, one can only wonder when the American people themselves will awaken to full horror of the atrocities being perpetrated in their name by those seeking to do nothing more than enrich themselves upon the blood of innocents.

© August 12, 2008 EU and US all rights reserved.
 
And they surely would not have done so had it not been for Israeli and US weapons and without tacit approval from the US. There are reports of two black soldiers being killed and one Ossetian woman describes troops dressed in black with US patches on their shoulders. Who knows if they are US or Blackwater/Aegis guys but I smell a rat in all of this.

If this is true and it probably is, I don't have any sympathy for what is happening in Georgia. It looks like the end game for Russia is to clear out foreign/US mercenaries from Blackwater and the people who have facillitated their presence and to serve as a warning to other countries in the region what the potential price is going to be.

The bottom line here is that the US can't really do anything militarily significant to effect the situation. This is not our fight and never has been. This is turning out to be a lesson of what happens when the US meddles in the internal affairs of foreign nations. I think the missle shield is on borrowed time in that part of the world.
 
Like most modern media, they take a few elements of fact and stretch it as far as it will go. For example, there ARE 1,000 American troops in Georgia. They were there as part of an exercise. However, those troops do not "direct and command" either Georgian troops or any PSCs hired by Georgia.

Georgia has 127 military advisers that train and advise the Georgian army. These guys probably do have influence, though much less than the Russian news articles would make it sound.

As for Western Private Security Contractors (PSCs) working in Georgia to train and accompany Georgian troops. This shouldn't be a huge shock. Most Western-aligned militaries now use PSCs to perform some functions (especially training in more complex areas, for example ordnance disposal). The Saudi Air Force couldn't even get off the ground without a considerable contingent of American PSCs providing maintenance training and similar guidance. You take the pay, you take the risks that come along with it (like getting sent on a mission into Ossetia with an extremely low probability of survival/success).

Oil pipelines, specifically the Baku (Azerbaijan)- Tiblisi (Georgia)- Ceyhan (Turkey) Pipeline

As I mentioned in another closed thread, the BTC pipeline provides 90,000 bbl/day of crude to Europe. That sounds like a lot; but France alone consumes 1,900,000 bbl/day (and that with a lot of alternative energy sources) and Europe as a whole consumes around 15 Million bbl/day. In terms of the global market, BTC is a drop in the bucket, which is why the conflict in Georgia and the destruction of the eastern end of the pipeline by Kurdish separatists in Turkey had almost no effect on crude prices.

In addition to this, the owner of the BTC pipeline is British Petroleum. BP has deals for Russian crude in excess of 45 million tons of petroleum products annually and spent $1.7 BILLION (about four months worth of BTC revenues assuming $125/bbl oil) upgrading a refinery they own with their Russian partnership. If Russia was really that concerned about the BTC pipeline, they already have lots of leverage over the owner without invading Georgia.

If there was any advantage to Russia oil-wise in this conflict, it was that it demonstrated that its own pipelines are more secure (and more likely to get contracts for future deliveries as a result) than the alternatives. Though as I pointed out earlier, this wasn't because of Russian action but because of Kurdish action.
 
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