Excellent Russia-Georgia Analysis from George Friedman

One difference I can easily see between Iraq and Georgia is that Russian commanders were obviously ordered to strike civilian targets of no military importance.

Villages and towns of no military value, market streets, that kind of thing.

They deliberately targeted non-combatants.

I don't know about you, but deliberately targeting non-combatants is the mark of a terror state.
 
I don't know about you, but deliberately targeting non-combatants is the mark of a terror state.

Like Dresden...

Sorry, it is war. The surest way to bring about a fast capitulation of the enemy is by making the consequences of war as high as possible for him.

Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Dresden, Sherman's campaign through the South. All are examples of actions taken to demoralize the enemy. The bottom line is that states derive their power from the people, even totalitarian states. Unless the people support the state it cannot continue. While I do not agree with Russia's actions I fully understand them. They want the Georgians fully cowed and that is exactly what they are in the process of doing.
 
They deliberately targeted non-combatants.

I don't know about you, but deliberately targeting non-combatants is the mark of a terror state.

I notice that this thread is drifting into the same area that got the last thread on this topic shut down; perhaps those who wish to discuss Iraq comparisons will do me the small courtesy of starting a separate thread so mine doesn't get shut down or at least take it to PM?

As for non-combatants, it doesn't look like either Georgia or Russia has its hands clean here. While both countries have the excuse that they are using unguided, dumb munitions in urban areas where civilian damage is likely to occur, there are also reports by independent Western reporters of Georgian troops burning out Ossetian/Russian owned houses during their initial attack on Ossetia and there are now independent Western reports of Ossetians doing the same thing to Georgian villages under Russian protection.

Frankly, I have several objections to helping Georgia here:

1. They deliberately attacked a larger state, already lying in wait for them militarily, knowing that they only way they could survive was if we jumped in to save them. Further they did this specifically after we told them not to do it.

2. They arguably committed war crimes in the process of doing it. While I understand from the Georgian persepctive that this is "their" land and that the Ossetian and Russian civilians are interlopers - it just never looks good to get caught deliberately burning out civilian populations and then leaving them homeless by the roadside (and here I am only going with the alleged crimes that have been reported by independent press - not Russian).

Neither of the above traits are things I want to encourage in any of our allies.

The contention that Russia is a Superpower is a joke.

The Russians are a superpower - if for no other reason than because they have enough nuclear armed ICBMs and SLBMs to destroy several nations, several times over.
 
What conventional forces exist anywhere in Europe that could stand up to the Russian army and give them a good fight??

There are more forces in Europe than a lot of people realize. There are enough air forces in and around Europe to keep the red army inside mother Russia. And there are plenty of Army and Marines for a good stand off. The forces there could hold them off indefinately. Then in less than 72 hours, there could be another 300,000 troops there for support.

That's what prevents Russia from being a super power. The US can be anywhere in the world, with enough force to completly ruin someone's day, in in less than one week. That is a Super Power. Russia does not worry me. Yeah, they have nukes, but absolutly will not use them unless forced to. No sensible country will. Iran/North Korea...different story. But if we really got into it with Russia, the battle would be short lived. They just can't compete with our Air Power. And Air power is the decisive factor in wars these days.

I love how the article in the OP is awed by Russia's invasion of a tiny little country with less than 35,000 ground troops, and a tiny little airforce. WOW, that is real display of might. (Dripping with Sarcasm)
 
Russia does not worry me. Yeah, they have nukes, but absolutly will not use them unless forced to. No sensible country will.

FWIW, there is considerable evidence that the Russian ballistic missile submarine that was recovered with the Glomar Explorer was on a mission to nuke Honolulu (and blame it on the Chinese). There is a book out on the subject called "Red Star Rogue" that lays out the evidence. It lays the blame at the feet of a rogue faction of the KGB involving later Soviet Premier - Yuri Andropov. Supposedly the reason the sub sank was because the failsafe mechanism we had given the Soviets in the 1950 caused an explosion in the warhead because the KGB group did not have all of the correct release codes.
 
Why is anyone surprised with Russia's "invasion" of Georgia? The handwriting was on the wall months ago. The separatists started armed conflicts with Georgian forces months ago and it was just a matter of time before Georgia reacted and Russia took advantage of the situation they arranged. If anyone thinks otherwise just ask yourself how could the Russian Army have reacted so quickly if they weren’t poised for such an action months in advance. Moving men and equipment of that magnitude takes several days with an efficient Army, which Russia doesn’t currently possess. Putin is probably the most cunning and efficient killer the Soviet Union has ever had as a leader and the West had better wake up as he is using OIL MONEY to rebuild the Russian Armed Forces and he will retake all the countries that broke away from the Soviet Union when Russia appeared to collapse financially. The Ukraine will probably be next followed by Poland etc. This won’t happen overnight but the handwriting is on the wall, as NATO is like the UN – a paper tiger and NATO will not allow either Georgia or the Ukraine into NATO as they cannot protect those countries without entering into an all out nuclear war. We are now back into the Cold War and this time Russia and China have all the money and it’s the USA that will have to skimp on defense. Thinking we can be partners with Russia or China is just delusional – those countries have had imperialist goals for decades, which will not change anytime soon. Russia will supply Iran next year with an air defense system that is as good as anything in the world – that is the main reason Iran’s nuclear sites might be bombed this year or early next year – once the system is in place the opportunity to shut down the nuclear facilities will probably be lost – this doesn’t sound like a global partner against terror IMO. China will not allow us to interfere with North Korea, who is also assisting Iran. The western media is buying into the Russian propaganda and is repeating the lie that Georgia somehow started this fight with Russia – Russia shouldn’t even be involved as it’s an internal matter within Georgia – but since the West got involved in Kosovo and destroyed Serbia, Russia is using the same reasoning in Georgia using the term “genocide” to cross the border and take down Georgia’s leaders as “mass murders”. With our Nation’s power and resources we could put a stop to both Russian and Chinese ventures but it would take resolve, sacrifice and the will to prevail – traits which we no longer possess. The time will come when we have to make a stand – all we can do now is just hope we will have the resolve and the where with all to prevail when that time comes. That’s my $.02 worth.
 
1. They deliberately attacked a larger state, already lying in wait for them militarily, knowing that they only way they could survive was if we jumped in to save them.
Georgia moved against South Ossetia, which is a province WITHIN THEIR OWN SOVEREIGN BORDERS.

You're trying to suggest that if Mexico subverted the government of New Mexico and started shelling Arizona, Colorado, and Texas, and then the US Army and National Guard moved against New Mexico, it would be "deliberately attacking" Mexico.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=9707AECB-E8A9-47CE-A695-1A79B7A305C6
The Russians have sized up the moral bankruptcy of the Western Left. They know that half-a-million Europeans would turn out to damn their patron the United States for removing a dictator and fostering democracy, but not more than a half-dozen would do the same to criticize their long-time enemy from bombing a constitutional state.

The Russians rightly expect Westerners to turn on themselves, rather than Moscow — and they won’t be disappointed. Imagine the morally equivalent fodder for liberal lament: We were unilateral in Iraq, so we can’t say Russia can’t do the same to Georgia. (As if removing a genocidal dictator is the same as attacking a democracy). We accepted Kosovo’s independence, so why not Ossetia’s? (As if the recent history of Serbia is analogous to Georgia’s.) We are still captive to neo-con fantasies about democracy, and so encouraged Georgia’s efforts that provoked the otherwise reasonable Russians (As if the problem in Ossetia is our principled support for democracy rather than appeasement of Russian dictatorship).

From what the Russians learned of the Western reaction to Iraq, they expect their best apologists will be American politicians, pundits, professors, and essayists — and once more they will not be disappointed. We are a culture, after all, that after damning Iraqi democracy as too violent, broke, and disorganized, is now damning Iraqi democracy as too conniving, rich, and self-interested — the only common denominator being whatever we do, and whomever we help, cannot be good.
:barf::barf::barf:
 
The Russians have sized up the moral bankruptcy of the Western Left. They know that half-a-million Europeans would turn out to damn their patron the United States for removing a dictator and fostering democracy, but not more than a half-dozen would do the same to criticize their long-time enemy from bombing a constitutional state.

The Russians rightly expect Westerners to turn on themselves, rather than Moscow — and they won’t be disappointed.

We've seen it all too clearly on this thread. Russia did it because there was no one to stop them. Poland and the Baltics turned out to voice support of Georgia, they've seen Kremlin duplicity, thuggery and brutally up close. I guess we should condemn them for not wanting to be sacrificed to the "Russian sphere of influence" or to placate convenient Russian fears that Estonia or Latvia will invade.
 
While it is very in vogue to cry about this being all Bush's fault I think the reassertion of Russian influence was something planned before he ever took over and desired regardless of who was in the White House. No president would have been able to maintain suitable forces in Europe given the end of the Cold War. The public would not allow it.

Bottom line is there was NO WAY any president would have maintained forces in Europe suitable to oppose the Russians. Blather about airpower is funny. It can do wonders but it cannot hold ground like troops and when Russian troops are mixed into neighboring population centers airpower comes off the table.

For those who like to slam Bush at every opportunity tell me what Gore or Kerry would have done? Their position would have been the same or worse as they were more likely to gut what military we have and would never act to commit it against the Russians. Bush may have spread us thin but Gore or Kerry would have simply not spread us anywhere the UN didn't send us. FYI, the UN will do squat here since Russia is on the Security Council.

Perhaps you can tell me what Obama would do?
 
Blather about airpower is funny. It can do wonders but it cannot hold ground like troops and when Russian troops are mixed into neighboring population centers airpower comes off the table.

True, but I wouldn't call it blather. The troops have to get there. In doing so, would be crossing plenty of open ground. And without their air support, would be drastically diminished upon arrival. Ask the convoy of tanks that left south out of Bagdad in '03. They didn't quite make their destination. The Army boys didn't even get to see them. Until they passed them on the way into Bagdad.
 
Any air power we project into the region is going to be far from its base. I doubt Russia's neighbors are going to bet their survival on allowing US forces to be based in their nations. More and more I think the missile defense issue with Russia is not so much that it can stop their launches at us but simply the principal of US assets on their border...

What nations outside of Russia's immediate neighbors are going to allow us to operate out of their airbases? France, Italy, Germany... I think not. If we wish to bring in the air support for places like Georgia it will be from far off and the Russians will know from where. Knowing that will allow them to plan accordingly.

I think it is clear we can't stop them and the world knows it. Unless Bush has a hidden death ray in orbit which he can unleash to eliminate all Russian armor in Georgia I think it is safe to say we no longer are a major player in that region. Russia now runs their block.
 
Not trying to argue...

But we have bases in those countries. And in the case of Germany, I don't they can stop us. I'm probably wrong, but I thing the WWII treaty and all give us unlimited access to do what we want. Turkey shut us down in '03 from attacking Iraq, but we didn't have the treaty.

But the situation that was being refered to was if Russia decides to move further west. Now that would be threatening those countries and the UN would take control. So we could stop an invasion.

But I agree, right now, we would be limited. But I would say that if they don't let us stop it now, don't call the US when it gets out of control.
 
Now that would be threatening those countries and the UN would take control. So we could stop an invasion.

The Sovi..er..Russians have a UN Security Council veto. However, countries on Russia's western border are either NATO, or good candidates for NATO (i.e., Ukraine) and the NATO treaty would kick in.
 
There's a kind of shrill desperation detected in the tone of American politicians and media pundits who are lashing out now at Russia. In recent years, these same Americans have thumped their chests and bragged about being the world's only 'superpower' - but now even FOX News refers to Russia suddenly as a 'superpower.' There's a kind of perverse delight and lust in the voices of these Americans who want to strike against Russia - as if they are screaming 'Please Please Please Bring Back the Cold War so we can have our identities again.'

I remember Mikail Gorbachev's ominous word: 'We are about to do something very cruel to the United States; we are going to remove its enemy.' There is a large percentage of Americans who over many decades...have been so indoctrinated against Russia...that Russia has become a cornerstone to their identity. Their identity has a psychological need for Russia to be the perpetual enemy/barrier to their ultimate well-being.

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S.A. has experienced two Wars against Iraq and 1 War against Afghanistan. In the Cold War, the U.S.A. would not have dared to engage in such perpetual reckless military ventures. Who should the U.S.A. now attack - Iran? Russia? Does the U.S.A. want to invade both these lands while dropping bombs on the Chinese/Tibet border?
Is Venezuela next? What about Mexico? The U.S.A. can no longer blame Russia for revolution in Latin America and around the world - and yet the U.S.A. perversely needs a Russia to blame...

Russia is not the inconsistant party in this matter. Russia has always expressed grave concerns about ethnic cleansing and foreign intrigues in places such as Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova... There's something exceptionally weird and dishonest about the current U.S. Govt. and its media feigning 'shock' over Russia's intervention in Ossetia. Russia is legitimately protecting its borders - its sphere of influence. Putin has repeatedly directly told Bush these concerns and explained these boundaries for years.

Russia was a superpower ten years ago and remains one today. Russia has 1000's of sophisticated nuclear missles. Russia has the largest Navy in the Indian Ocean - and strong ties to India and Malaysia. Russia has old ties to Europe - and in a world where Russian troops have left Eastern Europe<and Russia had a right to be there if one considers the WW2 invasions of Russia via Germany and her allies>the world begins to grow weary with the U.S.A.

The world asks why the U.S.A. keeps troops all over Europe and tries to expand Eastward to Russia's borders. Has the U.S.A. usurped the role of a 1930's Germany? Why does the U.S.A. police and dictate to the world? Why does the U.S.A. not take much better care of its own people and borders?

Russia is being consistant - but there is an unhealthy madness in the U.S.A. today. The U.S.A. seems to be like a nation that is simulataneously fighting two Wars while contemplating a 3rd and a 4th - a nation with the largest per capita prison population on earth with many other socioeconomic problems at home. In such troubling times, the U.S.A. needs a unifying enemy - a Russia. Unfortunately for the U.S.A. - Russia is more concerned about its borders and moving on. The U.S.S.R. is gone, and there's nothing the crazed Americans can do to bring it back again - not even Stalin's Georgian homeland can bring it back. Russia is moving on; it isn't stuck in the Cold War. Are Americans crazy enough to start WW3?
 
It really shouldn't be necessary to do this, but....
I notice that this thread is drifting into the same area that got the last thread on this topic shut down; perhaps those who wish to discuss Iraq comparisons will do me the small courtesy of starting a separate thread so mine doesn't get shut down or at least take it to PM?
As I see it, Bart has very politely asked that no Iraq comparisons be made. I can certainly understand why he doesn't want this thread shut down.

I'll go one further: This thread has nothing whatsoever to do with Iraq. Don't bring it up. Full Stop.

Should you really, really want to start down that road, I suggest that you start another thread to discuss that topic.
 
Let's put the whole Russian, Georgia ...

... And the Euro/USA fuzzball into terms everyone can relate too.


It's simply an old fashion mafia shake down on a big scale.


Up till now the "Reds" and the "Blues" have settled in to an uneasy truce over the last few years. The Blues allow the Reds to scrim payola from a few "Clients" by looking the other way. In addition to a little extortion the Blues even help the Reds at times by paying them to "do certain clean-up jobs" because they were messy boys. But the lack of respect and a desire to have a bigger slice of the Blue's pie really chew at the Red's guts.

The Reds aren't getting any respect in their part of the hood. In fact, some of their previous clients have gone over to the Blues for protection. This really has torqued the Reds off and they have been sitting back waiting for the right time to set an example to all their previous wandering shake down clients. The Blues have been a little distracted lately and the time seems right for the Reds to get it on. In fact there is a big party over at the Asian guy's place and everyone is there playing ball together. Here's where it gets interesting.

There is a small family business called the Georges making whoopee and flirting with the Blues. The Reds feel slighted the Georges decided to join the Blue team. The Georges are simple folk who are really on the fringe of the hood, out numbered by the Reds twenty to one and are venerable to an old fashion shake down. Thing is the Reds have decided to lay it on the Georges to set an examples and to show the Blues who's really in charge in their part of the hood. So instead of a simple shake down the Reds spring to action.

The Red's gather the gang up head on over to the Georges, bust down the door, fire a few shots to get everyones attention and put a pistol to Mr. George's head and hold him and his family hostage. The Blue guys get word while they are partying down with the rest of the hood and it takes the Blues a few hours to get it together. Knowing the party is over the Blues figure out they have a real image problem in the hood.

Well, that's where the Reds and Blues stand as of today. The Reds tell the Blues either give us more guys to shake down or we're going to blow a big hole in George's brains, trash out his house and send his girls off to service our the Red guys. Now, the Blues really need to get their S--- together and figure out what the hell they are going to do about.

Do they let the Reds get away with their shake down or do they negotiate terms? Or as a last resort, do the Blues just say F--- Y-- and start kicking ass and taking names? Tough deal all round, especially for the Georges since they could lose everything and the Reds and Blues might just end up Buds after all; all be it with hidden knives behind their backs ... just in case you know.

The next chapter is not written yet... Stay tuned kids.
 
Is Venezuela next? What about Mexico? The U.S.A. can no longer blame Russia for revolution in Latin America and around the world - and yet the U.S.A. perversely needs a Russia to blame...

Russia is not the inconsistant party in this matter. Russia has always expressed grave concerns about ethnic cleansing and foreign intrigues in places such as Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova... There's something exceptionally weird and dishonest about the current U.S. Govt. and its media feigning 'shock' over Russia's intervention in Ossetia. Russia is legitimately protecting its borders - its sphere of influence.

So...anything Russia does is in legitimate defense of its borders...its "sphere of influence," whatever that means, while the U.S. has no legitimate "sphere of influence" or interests along its borders. OK...well...now its really down the rabbit hole. Sometimes I feel as if I'm reading Pravda or the Daily KoS here.
 
Georgia moved against South Ossetia, which is a province WITHIN THEIR OWN SOVEREIGN BORDERS.

A province that was subject to a 1994 peacekeeping agreement that Georgia had signed that provided for Russian troops to keep the peace there. Georgia attacked those troops.

You're trying to suggest that if Mexico subverted the government of New Mexico and started shelling Arizona, Colorado, and Texas, and then the US Army and National Guard moved against New Mexico, it would be "deliberately attacking" Mexico.

Not really an adequate analogy for a number of reasons. First the ethnic conflicts in this area date back to Tsarist times. Second, it isn't like the shelling from Ossetia (or back into Ossetia) is a new thing. It has been going on for years. It was Georgia who made the conscious decision to up the ante by responding with armor, MRLS, and airstrikes.

All of the discussion of whether Georgia is in the right or wrong misses my main point though. Georgia wants to be a member of NATO and a U.S. ally. Yet, even after we told them not to start stuff, they deliberately attacked Russian forces. They must have known that large numbers of Russian armor were in the area. They must have also known that they would stand no chance against those same troops. So why did they do it? Were they counting on us to come riding to the rescue? Do we really want an ally who drags us into fights with nuclear-armed nations with blue water navies and large armored forces? Even worse, do we want that country to be a member of NATO where we HAVE to defend him or risk even more loss of credibility?

Georgia could have had all the provocation in the world; but the fact is that they were more than willing to put us in a really nasty situation just so they could "teach Ossetia a lesson." That doesn't strike me as the kind of ally we need. The fact that they did it in the traditional regional style of "burn 'em all out" doesn't sit very well with me either.

The fact that all of this highlights how poorly we have pursued policy with regards to Russia since the end of the Bush I administration is just icing on the cake. We continually do things guaranteed to provoke Russia diplomatically; but we don't have a coherent strategy behind it or the ability to do anything about it should Russia actually get tired of being annoyed by our policies.

Our own foreign policy is in enough disarray without taking on allies who are going to write checks that they can't cash and come to us looking for help.
 
Well I definitely see Russia through lenses of suspicion, but in this case, the Georgians really screwed the pooch in many ways.

I can't believe the Georgians were so foolish to up the ante over South Ossetia, when over 90% of South Ossetian's, that have their own ethnicity and language by the way, voted overwhelmingly (around two years ago) to have political independence from Georgia. I believe most South Ossetian's have also been willingly taken Russian passports.

For Georgia to be so bellicose over South Ossetia, when South Ossetian's don't want much to do with Georgia and seek Russian protection, AND knowing that Russia are just chomping at the bit for any excuse to pound the ammonia out of Georgia, was an EXTREMELY bad idea. And for what, nationalist pride?

Sure Russia over-reacted and used this as an excuse to kick the stuffing out of Georgia, but come on, why the surprise, this is Russia we are talking about. Georgia pulled the Bear's tail without expecting the Bear to turn around and bite its hand, arm, shoulder, and thorax! Georgia ought to have known that Russia would use any excuse to pound the snot out of Georgia, an obvious political and economic thorn in Russia's side. And let's not forget Russia's opportunity to send a message to all of its break-away states!

Did Georgia seriously think that the west would risk war with Russia and protect them?

Had Georgia been given NATO membership, would it had been even more adventurous, expecting NATO protection?

Anyway, Putin is a little dictator thug running the new puppet president and the rest of Russia's despotic government (gee that sounds familiar), but I just can't believe how FOOLISH Georgia has been in all of this.

Now all we can hope to do is to convince Russia to step back behind its gates, eventually, after they beat the sweat out of Georgia first of course, with some sober and carefully applied intimidation (don't hold your breath for that to work), or hope that Russia shows some self restraint.

Georgia, what have you been smoking?!
 
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