Why is McCain leading in latest polls?

[USAFNoDak]

Juan Carlos wrote:

Kerry lost by about 2% and one major state (a flip of Ohio, also a loss of only about 2%, would have put him in office). And that was an uncharismatic candidate against a sitting president during an armed conflict (and it hadn't gotten truly unpopular yet).

One of the big energizers for "da yute vote" was the war in Iraq. That is winding down rapidly. The media hardly pays any attention anymore. Plus, we've almost reached an agreement with the Iraqis that we'll be pulling out very soon (relative term alert) so that they can take over. When was the last time you heard Obama even mention his 16 month timetable for troop withdrawals? It will probably get mentioned this week at the convention, but it's becoming a yawner in most american voter's day to day concern pile. Gas prices, potential energy shortages, high heating bills this winter, the economy (related to fuel and energy costs), grocery bills, increasing state and local taxes, etc, are all pushing the sleeper topic of Iraq into the back pages of the print media.

This will help to dampen "da yute vote", in my opinion. Unless of course, something changes.

 

[JuanCarlos]

Polls are notoriously inaccurate. They mean nothing more than who would win if the people polled were the only voters. Even then it could (and will) change tomorrow.
A major problem with the polls is that the people polled tend to be disproportionally from large urban areas. As an example of how this throws off the number, Obama is guaranteed to win NY but if you look at the results he will win NY City and probably Buffalo and lose the ENTIRE rest of the state. So if you polled NY City you'd think Obama was going to win 80-20, in the end he'll win NY maybe 65-35.

Do you have a cite on people being from large urban areas? Just curious, because I was under the impression most polls were done by phone, and people in rural areas aren't that much less likely to have a phone than city dwellers. Unless pollsters were intentionally trying to skew polling, I don't see how this couldn't be easily controlled for.

Agreed, however, that polls aren't necessarily worth all that much anyway, especially this far from the election.

 

[xd9fan]

If the GOP wins the whitehouse....it will not be because of principle....it will be a default win because of fear of the other guy....

Reagan is rolling over...