Why is McCain leading in latest polls?

From what I've seen, the polls always indicate a "close race" or "contested race" or "too-close-to-call race" with the presidential elections. Like others have mentioned, polls can be manipulated to sound like just about anything. I'm inclined to think that the news outlets make it sound like a close race just to keep interest piqued.

It befuddles me how anybody could make up their minds before they announce their VP's anyway.
 
Most political science folks will tell you that a VP choice can either hurt your campaign or at best, have no effect on it at all. VP choices really don't help you. They can either have negligible impact or they can hurt you.

Frankly, I don't believe I have ever hinged my vote on who was picked for VP.

It's been said that the most productive thing a VP can do in office is to take advantage of the really good cigars available while there...
 
Bush vs Congress

People complain that Bush takes too many breaks from his office. However, CNN pointed out last night that the present Congress has passed a record low number of laws. What have they been doing, you ask? Passing resolutions, 1600+ resolutions. Without this congress we would not have Cowboy Appreciation Day, Watermelon Month, and the mush called for Appreciate your Post Person Day.

And we all thought the just sit up there and collect their pay and do nothing!!!:barf:
 
Another thing to keep in mind in the poll numbers is that many of the liberal base (inner city minorities, young college kids, etc.) can't exactly be counted on to show up at the polls on election day. That alone can account for several percentage points difference between poll numbers and actual election day performance for Democrats.

If polls are showing McCain up by 5 it's probably in reality more like 8. Still 2 months plus to election day though..........

I personally at this point believe McCain will win and actually win pretty big. I just hope he has coattails.
 
Cafferty is just playing the same song: the Republican candidate is stupid, didn't do well in school, can't talk without notes, and had a questionable start in the military.

For Bush, the question was how he got into the National Guard and avoided combat service. For McCain, the question is how he got into Annapolis and went to Vietnam.

The only thing he didn't trot out--yet--was the boogeyman "McCain wants to take away Social Security."
 
Rantingredneck,

Another thing to keep in mind in the poll numbers is that many of the liberal base (inner city minorities, young college kids, etc.) can't exactly be counted on to show up at the polls on election day.
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One can most likely count on those college kids plying their favorite part of their curriculum, getting stoned and/or drunk on election day.:D

However, if the rest of the country, supposedly being 80% conservative, got off their duffs and voted, no liberal democrat would ever be elected. We must challenge all conservatives in the country to GET OUT AND VOTE!
 
It's still way too early to tell. Barring ant damaging surprise revelations, it will probably still be neck and neck on election day.
 
I don't know - it seems that the VP selection matters more this year than most.

Ever wonder why McCain keeps moving to the right? It's so the press can fit Death in the picture.

Joking aside, most of my friends and peers (Late 20's to Early 50's crowd) that I speak with think McCain is a pretty good candidate, but they have some serious trouble getting around the age thing coupled with what must be the most stressful job on the planet. Obama's VP debate always turns into a pessimism vs optimism discussion, but I think it's going to have a real factor on where McCain falls. Picks a right-wing nutjob and he'll lose most of the moderates that he's competing for (Although Obama also seems to be drifting more left now so I'll certainly concede this point is contentionable). Picks a left-wing nutjob and he'll have to pray the party base holds its nose and toes the party line instead of staying home.

I can't help but think McCain's time was 8 years ago and his nomination was just a token from the GOP for an uphill election (Same with most of the other Republican nominees this go round - did ANY of them really seem like a good Republican? I kept thinking they were serving up the chaff.)

Anyway, I maintain it's silly to think these polls mean anything before a VP is chosen (and somebody nails Obama down on some of his actual plans) and that the polls are of dubious worth to begin with. They ALWAYS sound close, even when it's a blowout.
 
1-UP posted:
can't help but think McCain's time was 8 years ago and his nomination was just a token from the GOP for an uphill election (Same with most of the other Republican nominees this go round - did ANY of them really seem like a good Republican? I kept thinking they were serving up the chaff.)
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I honestly believe that the GOP was convinced that Hillary would be the nominee on the democratic side and they were scared that they wouldn't have much of a chance against her. Whether their fright was warranted or not is another topic. But 1-UP is on to something here. Just as when the GOP believed the couldn't beat Bill Clinton, they made it so that Bob Dole would be their nominee. It was "his turn" and they saw it as a throw away election. I think they did the same thing this time, believing Hillary was to be the nominee and would be unbeatable, for whatever reason. So they didn't really bother to come up with the best candidates and were willing to let John McCain have "his turn". But then, poof! Obama appears out of thin air (with a vapor thin resume) and wins the nomination (at least we think he will) ahead of Hillary. All of a sudden, we have a candidate on the democrats' side who talks a good game of politics but is an empty suit and appears to be beatable. This is the situation we find ourselves in today.
 
USAFNoDak said:
I honestly believe that the GOP was convinced that Hillary would be the nominee on the democratic side and they were scared that they wouldn't have much of a chance against her. Whether their fright was warranted or not is another topic. But 1-UP is on to something here. Just as when the GOP believed the couldn't beat Bill Clinton, they made it so that Bob Dole would be their nominee. It was "his turn" and they saw it as a throw away election. I think they did the same thing this time, believing Hillary was to be the nominee and would be unbeatable, for whatever reason. So they didn't really bother to come up with the best candidates and were willing to let John McCain have "his turn". But then, poof! Obama appears out of thin air (with a vapor thin resume) and wins the nomination (at least we think he will) ahead of Hillary. All of a sudden, we have a candidate on the democrats' side who talks a good game of politics but is an empty suit and appears to be beatable. This is the situation we find ourselves in today.
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So, did both parties screw up? Did the GOP send up the wrong candidate
as lamb to the slaughter and did DemocRats send up a popular candidate
that is beatable?

Because let's be honest W has been screwing up big time. There never
was any connection between Iraq and Al Qaeda except in the minds of
Dick Cheney and that nerdy looking dude that masterminded the whole
darned thing and doesn't apologize for it.

This election was DemocRats' to lose.
 
Here's another thing to think about. From 1994 to 2006, the democrats had been the minority in Congress. They briefly held the Senate due to Jumpin Jim Jeffords (sp?) but that didn't last too long when Tom "Puff" Daschle was ousted in South Dakota. So, what did democrats do to take back the Congress in 2006? They ran very moderate to conservative candidates in areas of the country that are moderate to conservative. Gee, that was tough to figure out. So the light bulb came on, they opened their eyes, acted accordingly, and were ultimately successful. This was less than two years ago.

Fast forward from 2006 to 2008. How long did the lesson from 2006 stick in their brains? Well, they're apparently getting ready to nominate one of the farthest left liberals they had in the senate. He has a background of hanging out with marxists, Chicago style politicians, Rev. Jeremiah (God d--n America) Wright, and people who planted bombs in the Pentagon and recently claimed that they had not done ENOUGH of that. He is a world citizen. He is weak as heck on foreign policy matters. He can't give an answer to a moralistic question without equivocating ("That's above my pay grade").

Americans are waking up to the fact that the democrats have forgotten the lesson that there are still a lot of moderate to conservative voters who do vote. If the democrats had followed suit on their own successes in taking over congress in 2006, they would not have nominated Obama. Maybe it will still work out for them. I think many of them are nervous and are having second thoughts about the chances for his success. The old guard media outlets are still going to do everything they can to; "pump (clap), him up!" (Hans and Frans from SNL). It appears today as if they really have their work cut out for them.
 
Simple...

Who do you want to face this man?
PutinDM_468x658.jpg


Obama or McCain
obama_mccain.jpg


Obama is more and more appearing as an empty suit. He is a dangerously naive and inexperienced man with all the wrong ideas to be responsible for the security of this nation. As his celebrity factor wears thin on many in the electorate who are honestly concerned with this nation's safety they have begun to see him for what he is. Recent events in the world (resurgent Russia) reinforce this.
 
Another thing to keep in mind in the poll numbers is that many of the liberal base (inner city minorities, young college kids, etc.) can't exactly be counted on to show up at the polls on election day. That alone can account for several percentage points difference between poll numbers and actual election day performance for Democrats.

If polls are showing McCain up by 5 it's probably in reality more like 8. Still 2 months plus to election day though..........

I personally at this point believe McCain will win and actually win pretty big. I just hope he has coattails.
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Those inner city minorities and college kids are, unless I'm mistaken, already discounted by the "likely voter" models. Which means those polls are already assuming they won't show up. Which means if they do and McCain was up by 5 then it's actually more like 2.
 
I see today that Obama has agreed to three presidential debates. When he was way ahead in the polls he found no need to agree to debates. I am sure the agreement to debate is due to pressure from his falling poll numbers.

It's still way too early to tell. Barring ant damaging surprise revelations, it will probably still be neck and neck on election day.
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Agree. My main point was that the Obama camp thought they would be way ahead at this juncture. And as some have mentioned above, world events will play an important role. The more we have events like the Georgia crisis, the more it helps McCain.

Who do you want to face this man?
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Another good point. I believe that Putin is the most dangerous Russian leader since Stalin. He is tough and very smart. Not to forget he was head of the KGB.
 
My main point was that the Obama camp thought they would be way ahead at this juncture.
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Everyone thought the Dem would be way ahead right now.

As ticked off as many in the Rep party are at having McCain the Dems seem to have once again shot themselves in the foot by nominating Obama...
 
McCain possesses the only qualification that matters in any presidential election.

He is the least-bad, electable candidate.
 
Obama is more and more appearing as an empty suit.
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Not only that, but the insides of his front pockets are hanging out. If he exposes his schwanzstucker, he'll look like an elephant. (can I say that here?)
 
Those inner city minorities and college kids are, unless I'm mistaken, already discounted by the "likely voter" models.
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Actually I think the "likely voter" models most of these polls use is "are you going to be voting this year" many say "yes" but then can't be bothered to actually follow through and show up on election day.

Think about all the anti-Bush animus that was supposed to drive him out of office in 04. All that young pro-Kerry base that just didn't follow through.
 
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