Why is McCain leading in latest polls?

John McSame will continue the failed policies that the Bush administration has forced down the throats of the American people. The Conservative wing of the party needs to regroup and find someone who will go back to the ways of Reagan but with some fiscal responsibility.
Lower taxes are a "good thing" but when nearly a single American corporation pays anything in the way of taxes into the system, something is very wrong. The burden then falls on the paychecks of the average worker. McSame does not understand this as he still thinks that trickle down will somehow work, which it never has.

Forget Iraq - it is what it is and neither candidate can make any difference in the way the military is going to operate, other than to cut funding which no one has the balls to do.

Besides, McSame is just too damn old to be president (for very long). He doesn't even know how many homes he owns.:D
 
IMHO Mc Cain is not leading in the sense he is a leader , however Obama is failing . Obama offers opra sound bytes , and tho many of us may not like McCains proven record , it is at least a totem we can grasp , IMHO Hillery would have a better chance with the general public than Obama . For myself i plan to vote my conscience , and that alone says i will abstain .
 
Actually I think the "likely voter" models most of these polls use is "are you going to be voting this year" many say "yes" but then can't be bothered to actually follow through and show up on election day.
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No, it really isn't. That is one question used for screening likely voters, but it is generally not the only one. They ask anything from "are you registered" to "how much attention have you been paying to the race" to "do you know what site you're supposed to go to to vote."

Based on the answer to a handful of questions, they apply a point value and either A) set a cutoff below which responses aren't counted or B) weight responses accordingly (so less likely voters are weighted less in the poll result).

One idea that interested me is that at least some part of McCain's trend could simply be due to likely voter models...for instance, the "how much attention have you been paying to the race" question. Now that the Democratic primary race has pretty much ended, it's more likely that (as McCain and Obama square off against each other) Republicans who might have answered "not much" before (and thus been discounted as unlikely voters) would answer differently now.
 
Well, I am going to vote, and, it's not going to be for Obama.

However, I do understand the appeal, sort of like Kennedy in the 60 election: HOPE, and change. With a 9% approval rating, and probably falling, for congress, that really reflects I'm not the only one that the windfall gas profits, PG&# rip off double electric bills, rising everything, is REALLY hurting financially.

The problem is, he has all the wrong answers, or most of them.
 
No, it really isn't. That is one question used for screening likely voters, but it is generally not the only one. They ask anything from "are you registered" to "how much attention have you been paying to the race" to "do you know what site you're supposed to go to to vote."

Based on the answer to a handful of questions, they apply a point value and either A) set a cutoff below which responses aren't counted or B) weight responses accordingly (so less likely voters are weighted less in the poll result).
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I'm sure they do ask those questions, but each of those questions can also be answered in such a way to make someone seem like a likely voter over the phone when they really aren't.

Example "Do you know where you need to go to vote" "Yeah the rec center over on third street" That doesn't necessarily mean the person will show up. They may have just seen people lining up there for the primary or for the last election.

There's also the human tendency to tell pollsters/interviewers what you think they want to hear. "Have you been paying close attention to the race?" "Yes" To answer otherwise might make the person on the other end of the phone think less of them.

Also, the pollsters that have called my house this year (and in past elections) Don't exactly seem like the best and the brightest if you know what I mean. I'm sure many of them (especially the smaller outfits) just get a crash course in how to score responses. The last one that called me seemed like she was having trouble reading her cue cards. :p.

I'm sure they try mightily to screen for likely voters. I'm just not sure their models, nor individual answers (especially from some segments of the voter pool) can be relied upon.
 
didnt bush's approval rating get close to 40 percent recently? it was at like 23 when i left for basic.

and obama was leading mccain by double digits then. i think its just a wave that fizzled out
 
If Obama picks an old white guy as his running mate, the yawn may cancel out his convention bounce and McCain will just wait him out while his support fades. If Obama picks Hillary, there'll be excitement in the ruling class and the MSM will recoronate him, but I suspect the thrill will wear off before November, and he'll be in about the same place vis-a-vis McCain.


Obama just isn't a good match for the electorate right now. The MSM has tried to wedge him into place, but he just doesn't fit.


Obama may spend $500 million and get billions worth of free campaigning from the MSM, but you can't make the horse actually drink the water.
 
If Obama picks an old white guy as his running mate, the yawn may cancel out his convention bounce and McCain will just wait him out while his support fades.
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Yes, I lived in Indiana for over 25 years, and I can tell you that Bayh definitely fits the yawn category. He is about as exiting as watching wet paint dry. This will not help Obama.
 
Here is clear evidence that McCain is going to be TROUNCED in November.

Obama is tied with McCain in NEVADA!! Nevada is normally a very RED Republican stronghold. If Obama can put a state like Nevada into play, then McCain has absolutely no hope at all of winning.

2008 is going to be a repeat of the 1996 Presidential Election, with McCain playing the role of Bob Dole.

Here is a link to a news story about this development in Nevada:

http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_10274904

.
 
Just weeks ago, prior to Obama's European rock tour his supports & liberal press were acting as through he had already won the White House. In fact, it appears his numbers actually started going down after his Berlin speech.
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Maybe some think Obama, just as Kennedy's "Ich bin ein Berliner" statement during his speech in Berlin, also wants to be a jelly doughnut. :eek:
 
Polls do not count in the end, what matters is the Electoral votes. At this time Obama has a significant lead over McCain in the electoral college. Look at the map linked below, several very red states are now in contention this election year. That is what matters. One reason the polls are close is because a large segment of America is not being counted in the surveys, and that is the youth vote. As we know the youth will vote for Obama if they turn out on election day. And they are very energized to vote this time around.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
 
One reason the polls are close is because a large segment of America is not being counted in the surveys, and that is the youth vote. As we know the youth will vote for Obama if they turn out on election day. And they are very energized to vote this time around.
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Like they turned out for Mr. Save the Environment Gore or Stop the War Kerry...

Get MTV to run a marathon of The Real Life and the youth vote will evaporate.
 
Get MTV to run a marathon of The Real Life and the youth vote will evaporate.
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I would agree with that statement in previous elections but this time around I am not too sure. Though I believe you are severely underestimating the youth of this generation. They are much more politically savvy then previous generations. Obama is a rock star to the youth. They worship the ground he walks on, something that can not be said for Gore or even B Clinton in the past. For instance I am a part time tutor at a local college, and I am quite surprised how energized the youth is to vote, at least compared to when I was in College in the mid-1990s. Back then most students, including myself, could care less about voting. It will be interesting to say the least. If they come out in force this time around they will swing the election in Obama's favor.
 
Get MTV to run a marathon of The Real Life and the youth vote will evaporate.
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The problem is that MTV is running bios of Obama all day.

Well, I actually have no idea since I've not turned on MTV since like 1998. But it seems that Obama has a pretty good media stream into the 18-24 demographic. And the campus vote seems a little more energetic than it did in 2004. But we'll see.
 
Polls do not count in the end, what matters is the Electoral votes. At this time Obama has a significant lead over McCain in the electoral college. Look at the map linked below, several very red states are now in contention this election year. That is what matters. One reason the polls are close is because a large segment of America is not being counted in the surveys, and that is the youth vote. As we know the youth will vote for Obama if they turn out on election day. And they are very energized to vote this time around.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/
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OK, click that link. Then click "No toss up states" at the top. This calls each state according to the way the latest poll averages are today. When you do that you get McCain 274, Obama 264. How many does it take to win again???

There has been a definite shift the last few weeks. People are starting to realize that there's no there there.
 
*shrug*

It's polls.

I'm pretty sure that Kerry was projected as winning at about this time. Then again, so was Dukakis. Basically the race will likely tighten, and probably flip back and forth a couple times, right up until the election. Then it will be within a couple percentage points, probably just like 2004. Because despite the fact that there isn't some liberal awakening sweeping the nation, neither is there some conservative resurgence. We're still basically split right down the middle.

Kerry lost by about 2% and one major state (a flip of Ohio, also a loss of only about 2%, would have put him in office). And that was an uncharismatic candidate against a sitting president during an armed conflict (and it hadn't gotten truly unpopular yet).

I don't care who you bet on, but if you think this one won't be close you're out of your mind. Definitely in the popular vote, and probably in the electoral (in states, not votes...the loser will probably be within one large state of the winner).
 
Polls are notoriously inaccurate. They mean nothing more than who would win if the people polled were the only voters. Even then it could (and will) change tomorrow.
A major problem with the polls is that the people polled tend to be disproportionally from large urban areas. As an example of how this throws off the number, Obama is guaranteed to win NY but if you look at the results he will win NY City and probably Buffalo and lose the ENTIRE rest of the state. So if you polled NY City you'd think Obama was going to win 80-20, in the end he'll win NY maybe 65-35.
 
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