Why is McCain leading in latest polls?

madmag

New member
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080820/ts_nm/usa_poll_politics_dc

Just weeks ago, prior to Obama's European rock tour his supports & liberal press were acting as through he had already won the White House. In fact, it appears his numbers actually started going down after his Berlin speech.

My analysis:
1) Most Americans are not impressed that Obama wants to be a citizen of the world or make tours like a rock star.
2) Obama's reaction to the latest Georgian crisis shows his inexperience in foreign affairs.
3) His stand against off shore drilling.
4) More voters are beginning to look past Obama's grandiose ideas and see that there are no real solid solutions to bring about the change he talks about so much. Just an empty suit that makes good speeches.

I know these numbers can change again, but not long ago on this forum many were counting McCain completely out. So, did I miss anything. Whats your take on McCain's latest poll numbers?
 
The more you see of Obama, the less you like. It's that simple. He's gotten a lot of poll numbers from his rock-star beginnings, now people are finding out how really radical far left he stands.


I predicted a long time ago a 60-40 win for McCain with maybe 35 states. I stand by that prediction.
 
McCain's town hall performance really helped shore up his support with the base. If he doesn't pick a leftist VP he might have a shot.
 
i agree with madmag, i thought what i saw of his townhall interview was excellent........the crowd was loving him, he comes off really well. That was the first time id really heard him speak, before its all been snippets where he made mistakes or something. I see mccain taking every state except ny cali and some of the new england states.
 
I think #4 is probably closest to the mark; though there are absolutists on either side that would gladly vote for Hitler if he was put up as the choice of their party, many of the fence-sitters are starting to actually LISTEN to what Obama says when he bumbles his way through a difficult question. McCain is FAR from an ideal candidate, but given a choice between two stinky fish like these, he's a little less stinky.
 
Not only has Obama been dropping in popularity (reflected in many polls), but McCain has been rising because he's talking more like a conservative than he was a year or so ago. I believe it's not just Obama's behavior which has narrowed the gap, but also McCain's. McCain whipped the snot out of the Messiah at Saddleback. Even the Obama supporters understand that. How do I know that? They've been peeing and moaning that McCain heard the questions before he had to answer them. I haven't hear one pundit or liberal commentator declare that Obama beat McCain in that venue. That's telling.
 
People are now realizing that Obama is just an empty suit with a good line of snappy patter. From the beginning he reminded me of the proverbial "barber's cat", full of wind and water but little substance.
 
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I haven't hear one pundit or liberal commentator declare that Obama beat McCain in that venue.

Good point. I would like to know what Olberman said, but I can't stand to listen to him long enough to find out.;)

I keep thinking they are down even more than just a few points. I think the die hard Obama supporters thought he would be 15 plus ahead at this point, so that's like a 20 point drop! The Obama camp heads must be spinning. How can a guy that supported the war and does not have the backing of liberal celebrities & media be ahead of them? The don't know or understand the answer.
 
Jack Cafferty of CNN is a real "Bush Hater" and dislikes McCain almost as much. You can see that by this opinion piece he authored. But, look for anyplace where Mr. Cafferty claims that Obama beat McCain at Saddleback. It's not there. Instead of telling us how much better a candidate Obama is, Cafferty seems to be heading down the path that he thinks will help Obama win. That is to tie McCain to GWB. This looks to be plan B. Plan A was that Obama would be such a great uniter that more than 50% of voters would hardly be able to wait until November to vote for him. Plan A looks to be failing big time, so it's on to Plan B: "McCain is GWB, just older". I doubt that will fly much better than Plan A. but we'll have to wait and see.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/obama_vs_mccain_with_barr_nader-957.html

Commentary: Is McCain another George W. Bush?Story Highlights
Jack Cafferty: McCain gives shallow answers at Saddleback forum

Why isn't McCain grappling with the complex moral issues we face? Cafferty asks

Cafferty: We can't afford another president like George W. Bush

World is too complex to entrust to someone who lacks intellectual curiosity, he says




By Jack Cafferty
CNN

Editor's Note: Jack Cafferty is the author of the best-seller "It's Getting Ugly Out There: The Frauds, Bunglers, Liars, and Losers Who Are Hurting America." He provides commentary on CNN's "The Situation Room" daily from 4 p.m.-7 p.m. You can also visit Jack's Cafferty File blog.


Jack Cafferty says John McCain shows virtually no intellectual curiosity, emulating President Bush

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Russia invades Georgia and President Bush goes on vacation. Our president has spent one-third of his entire two terms in office either at Camp David, Maryland, or at Crawford, Texas, on vacation.

His time away from the Oval Office included the month leading up to 9/11, when there were signs Osama bin Laden was planning to attack America, and the time Hurricane Katrina destroyed the city of New Orleans.

Sen. John McCain takes weekends off and limits his campaign events to one a day. He made an exception for the religious forum on Saturday at Saddleback Church in Southern California.

I think he made a big mistake. When he was invited last spring to attend a discussion of the role of faith in his life with Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, at Messiah College in Pennsylvania, McCain didn't bother to show up. Now I know why.

It occurs to me that John McCain is as intellectually shallow as our current president. When asked what his Christian faith means to him, his answer was a one-liner. "It means I'm saved and forgiven." Great scholars have wrestled with the meaning of faith for centuries. McCain then retold a story we've all heard a hundred times about a guard in Vietnam drawing a cross in the sand.

Asked about his greatest moral failure, he cited his first marriage, which ended in divorce. While saying it was his greatest moral failing, he offered nothing in the way of explanation. Why not?

Throughout the evening, McCain chose to recite portions of his stump speech as answers to the questions he was being asked. Why? He has lived 71 years. Surely he has some thoughts on what it all means that go beyond canned answers culled from the same speech he delivers every day.

He was asked "if evil exists." His response was to repeat for the umpteenth time that Osama bin Laden is a bad man and he will pursue him to "the gates of hell." That was it.

He was asked to define rich. After trying to dodge the question -- his wife is worth a reported $100 million -- he finally said he thought an income of $5 million was rich.

One after another, McCain's answers were shallow, simplistic, and trite. He showed the same intellectual curiosity that George Bush has -- virtually none.

Where are John McCain's writings exploring the vexing moral issues of our time? Where are his position papers setting forth his careful consideration of foreign policy, the welfare state, education, America's moral responsibility in the world, etc., etc., etc.?

John McCain graduated 894th in a class of 899 at the Naval Academy at Annapolis. His father and grandfather were four star admirals in the Navy. Some have suggested that might have played a role in McCain being admitted. His academic record was awful. And it shows over and over again whenever McCain is called upon to think on his feet.

He no longer allows reporters unfettered access to him aboard the "Straight Talk Express" for a reason. He simply makes too many mistakes. Unless he's reciting talking points or reading from notes or a TelePrompTer, John McCain is lost. He can drop bon mots at a bowling alley or diner -- short glib responses that get a chuckle, but beyond that McCain gets in over his head very quickly.

I am sick and tired of the president of the United States embarrassing me. The world we live in is too complex to entrust it to someone else whose idea of intellectual curiosity and grasp of foreign policy issues is to tell us he can look into Vladimir Putin's eyes and see into his soul.

George Bush's record as a student, military man, businessman and leader of the free world is one of constant failure. And the part that troubles me most is he seems content with himself.

He will leave office with the country $10 trillion in debt, fighting two wars, our international reputation in shambles, our government cloaked in secrecy and suspicion that his entire presidency has been a litany of broken laws and promises, our citizens' faith in our own country ripped to shreds. Yet Bush goes bumbling along, grinning and spewing moronic one-liners, as though nobody understands what a colossal failure he has been.

I fear to the depth of my being that John McCain is just like him.

If McCain performed so badly at Saddleback Mr. Cafferty, what the heck would you say about Obama's performance? You don't mention anything about that, do you?
 
I keep thinking they are down even more than just a few points. I think the die hard Obama supporters thought he would be 15 plus ahead at this point, so that's like a 20 point drop! The Obama camp heads must be spinning. How can a guy that supported the war and does not have the backing of liberal celebrities & media be ahead of them? The don't know or understand the answer.

Good points all. Remember, democrats tend to poll much higher than republicans in presidential races. This is typically as much as 10-15 points higher until right before the election, at which time the gap closes considerably. IIRC, Kerry was up over Bush by close to 10 points in Sept. and still lost, even though it was very close.
 
McCain's Surge.

Here's some more interesting information:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/20/race.tightens/index.html?iref=werecommend



... Clinton nearly overtook Obama during the primary campaign after she started airing ads asking who voters would rather have answering a 3 a.m. call to the White House.

"The McCain team has been very open that they went to school on the Hillary Clinton campaign, that they learned from that," said CNN contributor David Gergen, a former counselor to three presidents.

"And, on this 3 a.m. ad, what's very striking, as some have pointed out over the last few days, is that Barack Obama was winning a steady streak of victories against Hillary Clinton," Gergen said. "And then she ran that ad, and she really went on the attack on the experience question. And she won the bulk of the primaries thereafter in the closing months of the Democratic primaries, and won 500,000 more votes than he did and almost took it away from him."

When Russian troops invaded Georgia two weeks ago, McCain vigorously denounced the action and warned of consequences. Obama's reaction was more measured, and potential voters noticed, Schneider said.

"Which candidate do voters believe is better qualified to deal with Russia? McCain by better than 2-1," Schneider said. "More experience in military matters and foreign affairs."

That argument may be even more effective for McCain than it was for Clinton, said political analyst Marc Halperin, a former Democratic strategist.

McCain is "going after more centrist voters, more swing voters, more conservative voters who will be a much bigger deal in the general election than they were in those primaries and caucuses," Halperin said.

And then this line from the article:

By at least one important measure, McCain already has overtaken Obama. The Republican's current lead in key states would give him enough electoral votes to win the election, Gergen said.


That's a huge change. Many Obama supporters have been touting that even though the polling showed McCain within striking distance of Obama at less than 10% behind, Obama was having a cake walk with the electoral tallies. That's not the case anymore. David Gergen is no right winger.
 
If you go to RealClearPolitics, you will see that From 7/9-7/13, Rueters/Zogby polling showed Obama up by 10 points amongst Likely Voters (LV). From 8/14-8/16, Rueters/Zogby showed McCain up by 5. That's a 15 point swing in one month. That's huge. Of course, it's only one poll and there is still a long time to go, politically speaking, until the election. However, the McCain camp must be pleased and the Obama camp must be upset at the recent trend in polling numbers. As the Saddleback church event sinks in with more people, that trend is likely to continue.

www.realclearpolitics.com
 
David Gergen is no right winger.

Yes, and that does add weight to his statement. At least he can make an objective analysis.

Obama will have a surge from the convention. That usually happens. But what is interesting is (from what I read) there is some panic in the Obama camp about McCain's lead. This panic could lead to dumb mistakes. Time will tell.
 
I think a poll taker could fix poll results with no problem at all, by using certain demographics for a poll concerning Obama. Washington D.C. comes to mind...
 
I think a poll taker could fix poll results with no problem at all, by using certain demographics for a poll concerning Obama. Washington D.C. comes to mind...

That can cut both ways, though. For instance I believe the definition used for "likely voter" discounts those who've never voted in an election before. Cutting out those who were too young to vote previously, as well as a lot of people in their early 20's who simply didn't care before.

Even more so if you figure that turnout is higher for presidential elections that midterms. You're talking about a huge chunk of the 18-27 demographic, which I'm pretty sure trends Democratic (and towards Obama in particular).

And that's an example of an unintentional skewing of a poll result. There are plenty of ways to do so intentionally, as well.
 
I think a poll taker could fix poll results with no problem at all, by using certain demographics for a poll concerning Obama. Washington D.C. comes to mind...


Poll takers fix polls all the time, mostly with the particular wording of the questions.
 
Poll takers fix polls all the time, mostly with the particular wording of the questions.

Yep. Wording of questions, order of questions, and who they include in the poll. That last can even be determined based on responses...it's not like they can't determine who is a "likely voter" after they know how it will affect the results. Or other such chicanery.

Basically polls can be useful, but even when aggregated they're still best taken with a grain of salt.

EDIT: Note that I'm not doubting that McCain is currently trending upward. It actually makes sense. Just a matter of how much.

EDIT: I remember reading examples, though I can't remember one now to save my life, where the wording of the question was what they were actually polling for. In that they asked two groups the same question worded differently in some subtle way, and the difference in response is what they're looking for.
 
Juan Carlos posted:
EDIT: Note that I'm not doubting that McCain is currently trending upward. It actually makes sense. Just a matter of how much.

When looking at polls, it's always smart to look at trending across several polls rather than just one. I put the Reutuers/Zogby poll out there and I don't really care about the absolute numbers, but rather the amount of swing. In addition, when you go to RealClearPolitics, they have an average of many polls and you can definitely see the gain for McCain and the drop for Obama. I doubt the Obama camp is ready to throw in the towel. Far from it. However, I think they are miffed at how close this is at this time in the race. The conventions, the VP picks and other world affairs could swing this race in either direction and several times. It's going to be another close one in my predictions. The democrats were hoping for a walk on the water with their new "Messiah". That doesn't appear to be happening and I'm guessing it frustrates the H E double hockeysticks out of Obama's hard core supporters. They also hate Bush and are trying to say that McCain is just a third Bush term. They figured that would work to a "T", but maybe it's not working so well. Again, it's a long, long time until we actually pull the lever, though some folks have voted via absentee ballot already. I never vote that early, even though I vote "absentee" quite often due to hunting season in Minnesota. You never can tell what will happen. I like to hang onto my vote until I'm really certain.
 
Again, these arguments stem from the conceit that Obama should be ahead, but that the media and the Left are at a loss to explain this phenomenon

I mean why shouldn't a undistinguished junior Senator with a paper thin resume and the most liberal voting record in the Senate be 15 points ahead of a Senator who's distinguished, well-known, accomplished, statesmanlike, and a decorated veteran?

Yeah, a guy like Obama should be running all over him...

My guess is that most voting Americans still aren't as stupid as some would like to believe.
 
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