I apologize, my point was about natural supply / demand versus artificial. Indeed, supply/demand is being followed.
Let me restate what I am going for better: OPEC is specifically designed for price collusion and market manipulation. In some cases there is benefit as there is a tap that can be turned to up production when required.
Only what, 12.5% of US consumption comes for the middle east? Yet we still pay the prices, and total cost is based on rumors and wars in that area.
If you think that speculators are based in sound fundamentals, you're nuts. I mean that in the best way, not as a personal attack, btw.. many of my clients are hedgefunds and I have found out way too much about the industry and analysts. Yes, there are those that stay strictly fundamentals, but they represent maybe 10% of the money. Analysts have repeatedly been shown to talk up a stock or sector (which pushes stock prices up) to justify their investment as a self fulfilling prophesy. Look into how many of them are leveraged and it's amazing how much money is flowing in the markets.