The "Where is everything?" thread -- guns, ammo, primers, powder, etc.

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It took me 4-months to get a set of dies from RCBS. It seems like companies refuse to put more people on their payroll so they can increase output and have it equal demand.

I am wondering how the Unaffordable Health Care Act is influencing companies in their employment decisions. :mad:
 
Kevin Rohrer said:
It took me 4-months to get a set of dies from RCBS. It seems like companies refuse to put more people on their payroll so they can increase output and have it equal demand.



I am wondering how the Unaffordable Health Care Act is influencing companies in their employment decisions. :mad:
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Why put more people on payroll when you have to train them, pay payroll taxes and the unemployment when the market returns to its normal levels? Not trying to be a pain in the arse, but there are a lot of things which have to be considered when ramping up and hiring in a cyclical industry.
 
" It seems like companies refuse to put more people on their payroll so they can increase output and have it equal demand."

Actually, the companies have been laying people off!

They're the ones starting the rumors that the Federal Bureau of Ammunition Hoarding is buying up every last bullet to keep it out of Joe Sixpack's hands!

Yikes.

EVERY major manufacturer is adding staff and manufacturing capacity.

Every one of them.

The problem is, you can't simply snap your fingers and in 30 minutes acquire the machinery needed to manufacture bullets, cartridge cases, or powder.

And, you can't hand your newly hired Carbon Blob in Sector 7-G 5 minutes of training and have them fully up to speed.

It takes time, and it takes capital investment.

Plus, the companies also have to worry about what's going to happen when the bottom finally falls out of the Panicked Squirrel Rodeo we've been in for the last couple of years.

You just spent 30 million in capital funds expanding a line, and now you have to idle it, and staff along with it.

That sort of thing is a HUGE drain on a company's bottom line, and it has to be planned for, VERY carefully.
 
The local Gouger Mountain in Austin, Texas (actually Round Rock), has tons of ammo, but one one buying. Also, very few customers. I hope that place goes out of business. Stereotypical gunshop snobbery along with overpriced guns.

Case of 7.62x39 is about $600. About double to triple other places.

Strange that they sell no reloading supplies. That tells me that their core customer base is beginners and people who aren't familiar with firearms.
 
What Mike said - a LGS was worried as they had a slew of ARs ordered for all the guys clamoring for an end of the world gun. Now they are overstocked and being undercut by the online stores.
 
Powder and primers at Recob's Target Shop

http://www.recobstargetshop.com/

Bought some 4198 and RL10x and large rifle primers. They were shipped today. Prices at Recob's are reasonable. The final invoice didn't show a "hazmat shipping fee" so when they get here I will update on that. If there is no hazmat fee, then buying from Recob's is at least as cheap as buying local if I get enough stuff---no taxes at this time. I would like to buy local---these guys need a job too--but it is getting on towards prairie rat shooting season and I don't want to spend this summer fiddling with a pound of this and that powder and 100 bullets I never used before trying to develop a new load for a small number of rounds.
 
Took a gander at Gander Mountain on the way to work.

There is enough 223 to fill a small house. If the government was controlling ammo - why is the common battle rifle ammo so freely available.

There was a similar amount of 40 SW - tables covered with it. Don't agencies like to use that stuff. Similar with 45 ACP - a true manstopper that the goverment would control.

Ha - all that ammo is just a diversion to keep us from noticing the UN and USA cabals from denying us 9mm and 22 LR - the most effective combat ammo on the planet!!

Get my point. BTW, Gander mountain prices - GEEZ!
 
So a large amount of hoarders are buying up all the 22 rimfire and that is why there is none? Even foreign manufacturers cannot keep up with the demand of the US market?

Sounds like an equal conspiracy theory.
 
So a large amount of hoarders are buying up all the 22 rimfire and that is why there is none? Even foreign manufacturers cannot keep up with the demand of the US market?
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Ammo companies are set up to make ammo at more or less the rate that it is normally used and don't have a lot of ability to increase their production. If the demand spikes, the supply chain can empty pretty fast. It's not like the ammo industry has all this extra manufacturing capacity that is sitting idle most of the time just so that they can increase capacity at a moment's notice to help bring these shortages to an end. Manufacturing capacity costs money and companies who spend money on things that will sit around most of the time not earning them money don't stay in business very long.

That wouldn't be such a big issue if the demand came back down quickly because the shelves would just refill and everything would be cool.

BUT, that's not what happens because the demand spikes tend to be self-sustaining due to the willingness (one might almost say the strong desire) of the gun public to panic at the drop of a hat and start spreading and believing conspiracy theories.

So once the shelves start to empty, people who would never even worry about ammo supply start to get worried and they start buying--it snowballs from there--more people see the empty shelves and buy more. Even people who aren't really panicked will up their purchase amounts because they see that availability is becoming an issue and they want to be able to keep shooting.

Then, once the supply chain is really empty, it's easy for a relatively small number of determined buyers to keep them emptied. Especially if there are lots of panicked folks out there willing to pay 5x (or more) the marked price to buy from the folks who are standing in line to keep the shelves empty.

To think about this in very simple terms: If everyone who would normally buy one box of .22LR buys 2 instead due to the panic, that doubles the normal consumption rate and would require the ammunition companies to double their output to keep up. That's not possible.

Throwing the foreign makers into the mix is a red herring. They're all part of the normal supply and everything affects them the same way.
 
It is not a red herring just because you say so.

Foreign manufacturers are not taking up the demand of domestic suppliers of rimfire ammo. Is the entire world in a 22 lr scare? Are Germans hoarding 22 lr? Is there a huge commodities marketpaper purchase/demand for rimfire ammo sales and the paper purchase of 22 lr has exceeded physical supply of ammo?

I find it rather hard to believe that the world suppliers of 22 rimfire cannot keep up with the demand of a few hoarders trotting down the walmart aisles at 8am. Nor the big internet ammo suppliers.

Most people in walmart are not concerned about buying 22lr ammo, they don't have the money to just buy food.

To continually just say that the ammo manufacturers are running at full steam and even world suppliers can't keep up with the hoarders is equally unbelievable to its scarcity.
 
"Foreign manufacturers are not taking up the demand of domestic suppliers of rimfire ammo."

How do you know that?

Are you familiar with their production cycles?

Are you familiar with their production capacity?

Are you familiar with their overseas market cycles?

Are you familiar with the hoops that they have to jump through to import ammunition into the United States?

The assumption seems to be that "well, if US suppliers are maxed out, the foreign makers can snap their fingers, increase their production 200, or 500 or 1,000% to meet US demand, and nip this crisis right in the bud.

That's an unsupportable assumption that seems to be based on a series of speculations.

You'll have to come up with some hard data of your own to prove that foreign makers are capable of filling in at a moment's notice.
 
It has been years with a shortage of rimfire, you would think that foreign manufacturers would seek out that market. They certainly have supplied much of the demand on centerfire.

You are right about pointing out the licensing etc for import of ammo, maybe that is the problem, is it red tape or the executive branch is stymieing imports of ammo the best it can. Not letting any new sources in. Maybe it is not just the executive branch, maybe domestic manufacturers don't want the competition.

There is no doubt that I'm speculating what is going on, just like you are, but to just put the blame on hoarders doesn't hold water either. It is never just one thing when scarcity occurs there are many factors that contribute.

The market also seems to have some price manipulation, because some prices are too low considering the seeming scarcity. TOO LOW? yeah why considering there is a drought can you still buy a brick for 25 bucks on occasion? A promotional deal.

Seems like 40 bucks was norm for a brick or 50 bucks considering how bought, with shipping etc, but now it is still scarce.

Is 75 the new norm for a while, what I read anyone that would dare sell a brick for 75 bucks is a crook.

really?

Should gold go to 2000 should we force people to sell it for what it costs to dig it out of the ground and refine it etc.

Considering the supply and demand of a free market, shouldn't a product reach a price that lowers demand and then subsequently increase supplies by lowering sales.

How much of a panic is there really? I reached my top price at 10 cents a round, maybe I would pay 15 cents but I'm not paying 20 at current dollar value. People have quit plinking because of resupply costs.

I'd rather see 20 cent a round 22 lr then none at all
 
Foreign manufacturers are not taking up the demand of domestic suppliers of rimfire ammo.
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The foreign manufacturers are part of the NORMAL supply in the U.S. They have factored the U.S. market into their production capacity and are limited just like the U.S. manufacturers--they can only increase their production capacity within certain limits.

The fact that they're foreign doesn't make them any different in terms of their limited ability to adjust to demand spikes.

By the way, importing ammunition into the U.S. is not as simple nor as quick as it might seem. Even if the foreign manufacturers were able to magically increase capacity to fully meet demand, there can be a surprising delay before that ammunition makes it to a U.S. shelf.

And importers are in the same boat as manufacturers. If they up their import quantities significantly and the spike goes away, now they are in a situation where it make take them years to recoup their investment by selling at normal demand levels. That's a good way to go bankrupt and they know it.
It has been years with a shortage of rimfire...
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It doesn't matter how long it lasts. Until it is perceived by the ammo manufacturers to be a permanent increase in demand they are not going to spend millions of money to increase production. They can't afford to make huge investments to create manufacturing capacity that will then be idled because the demand spike went away.
There is no doubt that I'm speculating what is going on, just like you are...
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That's just it. You may be speculating, I am not. I have been following the investigations by congressmen into ammunition purchases by the government. I have done research into ammunition buys by the government, how they are administrated, the general quantities, and what the ammunition is used for. I have been listening to interviews with ammunition company executives, I have been reading articles by experts in the industry. I have personally spoken to persons working in the industry. The story, once you get away from all the speculation and panic-generating theories and rumors is always the same and it all makes perfect sense.
How much of a panic is there really?
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It depends. I've seen .22LR prices well over 10 cents a round and have seen reports of people paying $100 a brick. The people willing to pay that much are keeping the shelves empty by encouraging others to stand in line to clean the shelves and sell what they buy at crazy profit margins. At my local Wal-Mart, the clerks tell me that the same relatively small number of folks stand in line for up to 4 hours any time an ammunition shipment is expected.

But just wait a little bit longer--the shelves are starting to refill and the prices are coming back down. There are two gun shops within a mile of my house and I can go into either one and buy .22LR ammo any time I want. At one, they have bricks for $30 apiece--6 cents a round.

It just takes time for people to calm down and for things to get back all the way to normal. I've seen this happen before and I'm sure we'll all see it happen again.
 
I had used up some of my small pistol primers and have been on the look out for some to replace what I have used. Well today I went to Cal-Ranch a sort of tractor supply store, and they has 7 boxes of CCI. I bought them. I still had some time to kill so I went down the street to Sportsman's Warehouse and they have a limit of 1 box (1000) for about $3 more than I paid for the last 700 that CR had.

I guess I will go get a box tomorrow. Maybe some large pistol primers too. Now if they had pistol powder?

Mel
 
One thing's for sure; When this "shortage" is over, and folks are used to paying more for .22, you're not going to see a reduction in price to pre-crisis levels, much like gas prices didn't come down after the "shortage" of 73.
 
It's very likely that you are correct, but there is a small chance of a rebound effect if the demand cuts off abruptly enough. If that happens and it leaves a glut created by the stepped up production the prices will drop rapidly and may get low enough to more or less cancel the effect of the shortage.
 
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