Real Gun said:
Unclenick, I did not take off "20%" I took 10% of 10%, yielding 20.2 down from the 25.
10% of 10% is 1%. I think you meant you took 10% off 90% of the already low Hornady load. That's a 19% reduction and 20.2 grains is smaller than 25.0 grains by 19.2%, the 0.2% coming from the need to round charges to the nearest tenth of a grain. I mentally rounded that to 20%, making an error of 0.08%, but the difference is of no significance in the context of the issue.
Real Gun said:
Nevertheless, there was no physical evidence that the load caused the squib, considering how many rounds had been fired previously with considerable drama and exceptional accuracy.
I disagree. You had unburned powder and some fused clumps and got enough pressure to push the bullet part way through the bore. That is classic physical evidence of a squib caused by powder failing to maintain critical start pressure long enough and extinguishing in the bore. The fact it worked in other rounds is what makes this situation dangerous. Extinguishing require very specific conditions of pressure and temperature that don't randomly occur most of the time, so most shots seem OK. If the conditions should happen when you are shooting fast or if you fail to notice the squip for some other reason, the next round seldom also meets the critical squib conditions, so it shoots into a stuck bullet left by the squib. That can burst the gun.
Real Gun said:
The powder companies are all the same in their refusal to suggest that lead bullets can be supersonic and not melt.
That's not what Jeff at Alliant said. He said if you want to make supersonic loads with your bullet, use 2400. It is a flake powder, and the way 2400 makes that flake, it is formulated without the degree of surface deterrent coating the ST. Marks spherical propellants have (both 300-MP and H110/296 are made at the St. Marks plant in Florida), so the minimum critical pressure is lower. Indeed, Elmer Keith developed the .44 Magnum using fairly soft lead bullets (20:1 lead:tin and later 16:1; about BHN 10-11) and 2400. Obviously that worked out well.
Real Gun said:
The bullets arrive nicely on target. Are we ready to say that W296 for example, closely related in performance, should never be behind a lead bullet? Whose load are we using if we do that?
As you pointed out yourself, Alliant is careful to state MP isn't H110/296. It is slower. Something I started to include in my last post, but left out, is that Beartooth Bullets has some load data on H110/296 for their very hard cast bullets (BHN 21), but they fill the case under the bullet 100%, fire in a super strong revolver like a Ruger or a Freedom Arms, and the bullets are also usually heavier (280 grains and up), which supplies more inertial resistance for the powder to build pressure against and accelerating more slowly, giving the powder more time to establish a sustaining pressure.
Real Gun said:
What is the rule of thumb for extrapolation from jacketed loads without claiming that no one does it for lack of another source?
That's pretty much the point of my previous post. For some powders there is no rule of thumb that works. What is happening as they slow the powder down is that the minimum pressure requirement is going up toward the maximum pressure. That's why Winchester used to publish only single fixed charge values for 296. For a powder that is slow enough, the minimum reliable load peak pressure may already exceed what a soft bullet will work well with. That was the point of Jeff's statement that 300-MP was not suitable for lead bullets.
What you need to do is pick a powder fast enough and without enough deterrent to be likely to squib out at the pressure your bullet likes. I think you got the accuracy you did when 300-MP fired properly because you achieved a pressure the bullet likes, but it just wasn't high enough to guarantee 300-MP will sustain burning 100% of the time. 99%+, maybe, but not 100%. And its that last fraction of a percent that can get you.
In this case, pick 2400. It's been around and shooting lead bullets, including fairly soft ones, to magnum velocities for 80 years and doesn't have nearly as low a minimum pressure requirement as 300-MP.
"First contemplation of the problems of Interior Ballistics gives the impression that they should yield rather easily to relatively simple methods of analysis. Further study shows the subject to be of almost unbelievable complexity."
Homer Powley