Posted by
garyl43:
Exactly UncleEd, I think real world statistics prove that a revolver will be more than enough firepower in 99.99% of any situation a civilian might find themselves in, ...
There are very "real world statistics". For those few that there are, the
mean number of rounds fired in civilian defensive encounters that involve shooting falls under the maximum capacity of even small pocket revolvers.
But the mean says absolutely nothing about the
distribution of the data.
Absent sufficient data about the number of rounds fired to draw reliable conclusions, we have to resort to other data.
We know that handgun rounds have to hit something vital, and maybe more than one something vital, to stop an assailant.
We know that hitting something vital in a rapidly developing situation against a moving attacker or two will likely require multiple shots.
We know that most people, even trained ones, miss the target completely more often that they hit it, both in real and in simulated defensive encounters.
We know from the limited real data that we do have that if one is attacked, the odds are greater than even that there will be more than one attacker.
So, what can we do with all of that?
In June of 2012, TKL staff member John KSa made some statistical calculations, based on realistic assumptions regarding the above points, about one's chances of coming out on top with different numbers of rounds fired. They were eye opening.
John's analysis showed us that a defender with only five shots available had---far,
far less than "enough firepower in 99.99% of any situation a civilian might find themselves in"--that against a single attacker, the chances of success are less than one in two, and against two who need to be stopped, miniscule. Six rounds improves the odds by more than 32%, as Colt always contended and as police officers knew. Seven is better, and eight still better.
I carry eight.
Here are links to the analysis. Don't like the assumptions? Choose your own, and run the numbers yourself.
And don't forget to take into account whether you would like to be left standing with an empty gun as you call 911.
http://thefiringline.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5129793&postcount=1
http://thefiringline.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5131003&postcount=10