“Reasonable” Primer cost?

Unclenick said:
More like 7%. However, surveys show the average person's perception is that it is much higher than it actually is. This is due to a tendency of the human brain to remember things that alarm it, like the prices for favorite items that jump out at you because they show above-average increases. In that situation, we tend to forget that boring things like the water bill haven't gone up as much (at least, not in most places).
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Well, water is pretty abundant and cheap to treat and supply, but anything that is manufactured or refined is running close to 20% above what it was 2 years ago. Dollar Tree rose prices 25%, much of the food I buy is up 10 to 20%, the only stuff I see not going up in price that is a physical good is anything that's an electronic entertainment device like phones and TV's.

I don't care what impact supply/demand has on the price increases because we're told the prices will go back down once the supply issues are corrected, but by the time that happens either inflation will keep the prices where they are now or people will be so used to paying higher prices that distributors and retailers won't lower them.
 
And with the market staying sold out, it might be the norm for a while. All the new reloaders aren't too mad about 12 cent primers. They're still producing rounds for 40-45 cents (handgun) and the retail is still 60 cents to a buck per round. So they are "winning" in their math and it's just us older reloaders that are lamenting the 12 cent primers. I miss the 3 cent days too, but I don't think it's coming back. I only hope one day it gets back to a nickel a primer, but that might be quite a while.
 
Just this last Thursday or Friday, the talking heads on TV included economists and former Fed board members who are now starting to worry inflation won't reverse when the supply chain gets sorted. This is both because, on the supply side, increases in salaries due to trying to attract or keep employees during the labor shortage can't easily be taken back, and on the customer side, buying habits are being changed by the pandemic and the old supply chain may no longer prove adequate even when it is restored. Things that used to be trucked to stores for the consumer to transport home are now being shipped, so they go through an additional paid transportation step that uses supply chain resources. So we may have some adjusting to do.
 
Unclenick, the 1.5B number you site is "federal" USA government. Its not state and local governments. That statistic is misleading.

Please keep in mind, most state and local governments, that are funded by you, shoot for FREE. They get whatever they want, prioritized over us. We are last in the supply chain. All government bodies, federal, state and local, are in front of us. What is left over after they take what they want, you can buy. BTW, I finished that primer flash hole test, check it out.
 
That's evidence of trying to manipulate the Russians by hitting a profitable export, not the civilian ammunition market. At least, not yet. If the ban is still there in a couple of years,
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Thanks didn't know it was not already in effect which seems odd to me but ok . I don't agree in complete that it's evidence against the Russians . I mean yes but picking an item that goes directly to supporting a key political strategy while at the same time actually hurting many Americans is not good policy IMO . I can't think of many if any other sanctions that would negatively impact more Americans then banning anything firearms related . That's a political choice not a choice best for Americans .
 
So as the OP on this string of replies, I suppose what’s reasonable is whatever one is willing to pay for it.
I remember when I first started driving in 1973 that a gallon of gasoline was about 35 cents. By 1974 during the opec embargo, it had doubled to about 75 cents. I also remember some people saying “I don’t think I can afford to drive anymore”. But guess what? We grumbled about it, paid the price and moved on. Those pre inflation prices have not returned. And no, I don’t think that EVs are the wholesale solution to that, not attempting to morph the discussion into that political hot topic.
Though it may not be fair to compare gasoline to primers, there are some parallels that can be drawn.
I seriously doubt that $35 per brick of primers (retail) is ever going to return to store shelves. I think $75 has become the new retail normal and it only goes up from there.
Two bits.....
 
I think primers in the $30 to $40 range will happen again. I remember in 2013/2014 when the internet sages predicted we’d never again see .22lr for under $75 for a brick of 500. I was paying $18 in 2018… It might take another year or two or even longer but once the panic buying dies down, shelves are restocked, and manufacturers need to keep selling, the prices will drop.
 
M.G.,

Yeah, and not only is it not stopped, I just learned that the ocean shipment chain has pretty much caught up and ammo imports from Russia, Korea, and the EU countries are at 225% of what they were before the pandemic (see next-to-last link below) and we still can't keep up with demand.


9MMand223only,

Thanks for the heads up on the flash hole test. I'll check it out.

On the ammo bought by the government, I didn't include non-federal purchases because they are relatively small. We have about 700,000 police officers nationwide and they shoot, on average, just 200 rounds a year each. That's about 0.14B rounds per year. So, add that to 1.5 Billion in Federal purchases and you get 1.64B. Even if you made it ten times normal, doubling government purchase, it's still just nowhere near enough to account for what we are seeing. Also, while the Feds and the military can put themselves at the head of the line for ammunition, local law enforcement entities don't have that kind of clout. Especially not with ammo makers in other states, and they are not all able to get ammunition either. And it's got thieves actively stealing from police. Some departments used to reload training ammo, though I've heard liability concerns have cut that down or out in places. But even if that weren't so, the primer shortage would be curtailing it, too.
 
Unclenick said:
M.G.,

Yeah, and not only is it not stopped, I just learned that the ocean shipment chain has pretty much caught up and ammo imports from Russia, Korea, and the EU countries are at 225% of what they were before the pandemic (see next-to-last link below) and we still can't keep up with demand.


9MMand223only,

Thanks for the heads up on the flash hole test. I'll check it out.

On the ammo bought by the government, I didn't include non-federal purchases because they are relatively small. We have about 700,000 police officers nationwide and they shoot, on average, just 200 rounds a year each. That's about 0.14B rounds per year. So, add that to 1.5 Billion in Federal purchases and you get 1.64B. Even if you made it ten times normal, doubling government purchase, it's still just nowhere near enough to account for what we are seeing. Also, while the Feds and the military can put themselves at the head of the line for ammunition, local law enforcement entities don't have that kind of clout. Especially not with ammo makers in other states, and they are not all able to get ammunition either. And it's got thieves actively stealing from police. Some departments used to reload training ammo, though I've heard liability concerns have cut that down or out in places. But even if that weren't so, the primer shortage would be curtailing it, too.
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With my agency we qualify twice per year, but both during the same in-service. I would say we generally shoot about 300-500rnds per year at that in-service. My agency also allows us to get 50rnds per month for training, if we want to go get it, or another 600 pear year. But we are a bit bigger, and may shoot more than others.
 
I just learned that the ocean shipment chain has pretty much caught up and ammo imports from Russia, Korea, and the EU countries are at 225% of what they were before the pandemic
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Is that 225% exportation or production ? The article you linked is from 7 months ago when prices were actually better then they are now and also from a time we all thought it was starting to get better .
 
MG,

It said imported ammo is up 225% over the last two years. However, I know there was an interruption during the time the European shipping container turnaround was backed up by 100 days, and I know that S&B had their plant down for a time due to COVID when companies were shut down in 2020. I don't know which other ammo plants went down at that time, but wouldn't be surprised if they all didn't suffer some production impact from the pandemic. So there was probably a two to four-month import dead space followed by resumption of shipping that included backorders to make that growth number even possible. And even though it came back, the over-buying phenomenon keeps the store shelves empty.


Shadow9mm,

I think a lot of departments take firearms training more seriously than they did in past decades, especially in high-crime areas. In the '80s I helped a Sherrif's deputy get past his semi-annual qualification. He was not a recreational shooter, and if he hadn't failed twice and been threatened with 6 months of desk duty if he failed a third time, I don't think he'd have been interested in my coaching. Back then, a lot of officers viewed qualification as a bother and mainly shot only as required to get through it.

In Ohio, the requirements for requalification are not much, except you'd want to get some practice in leading up to it. The state requires the qualification and requalification of peace officers, but the law only says the training has to be as realistic as possible and be conducted wearing the normal full complement of equipment. The Ohio Peace Officer Training Academy semi-auto pistol qualification course is just 26-rounds, one of which is a spare. Initial academy training involves shooting more, of course, but once you are done with that, it will depend on department policy as to how much shooting you have to do.
 
I’d be happy to be able to buy a brick for $70-90. Around here, the only place that has any for sale, only sells 100 at a time, limit 1 pistol and 1 rifle (I know, it’s stupid) for $12 each. I stocked up when bricks were $26, but eventually I’ll run out so I’ve been buying 200 at a time.
 
I think primers in the $30 to $40 range will happen again.
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About the same time gas drops to 40 cents a gallon again.

Relative to income it is cheaper for me to buy gas today at $4/gallon than when I first started driving and paying 40 cents/gallon. And on top of that it costs me a lot less per mile to drive today since today's cars will go 2X or 3X as far on that gallon of gas. My 1969 Firebird got about 8 mpg. My 2014 4X4 F150 gets 17-19 mpg, the 2020 Explorer will get 25-28 mpg. Gas in 2022 is a LOT cheaper than in 1972 all things considered.

Given time everything we buy ends up costing us about the same relative to time worked. You'll have to work the same amount of time to earn enough to pay for the same goods today as 50 years ago in most cases. Things like politics, natural disasters, and world events cause temporary spikes in prices which is where we are now.

But the rise of income, and the rise of consumer products are never exactly synced together. At the moment prices of many goods are increasing faster than income. But over the last 20 years incomes have been rising faster than the costs of firearms and ammo. We've gotten spoiled by cheap prices for a while now. Part of the rise in ammo prices is simply catching up to income. Had the increases been more gradual and closer in line with the increases in income it would be less noticeable today.
 
"Reasonable” Primer cost?

Well I guess that all depends on how we define "reasonable" since my reasonable and the reasonable of someone else may not be the same. On used gun prices I always have said that any gun on any given day is worth what someone is willing to pay, no more and no less. I guess that can now be extended to cover primers. Right now primers are not worth $50 a thousand. Actually not even $35 a thousand. Simply because I have more primers than I will likely load during the duration of my life on this planet. Now for someone who really desperately needs primers they may well be worth $60 to $100 per thousand. Just not to me. That's how it works.

Ron
 
depends on how we define "reasonable" since my reasonable and the reasonable of someone else may not be the same.
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Exactly right. Right now the prices are 'unreasonable' in my eyes.... But others seem to thing spending a fortune on primers is 'reasonable' . So it goes.
 
I dropped by a Cabela's store about 8 miles round trip today just for the hell of it. The last 3 times I did this it was a total waste of time. Much to my surprise, they had 11 boxes of 1000 CCI Small Rifle Primers waiting to be snatched up at $129.99 a box. When I left, there were still 11 boxes on the shelf.
 
I haven't bought any in over five years As I have 30K of large and small pistol on my bench now. $60.00 OTD is my limit.

Bill
 
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