Metal God said:
There's maybe 1k ways to sanction governments for things you feel they've done . When a anti admin bans importation of the very thing that can help relieve the market in the name of sanctions . That is a clear manipulation of the market .
That's evidence of trying to manipulate the Russians by hitting a profitable export, not the civilian ammunition market. At least, not yet. If the ban is still there in a couple of years, then you can start to argue market manipulation. There is still
a couple of year's worth of Russian ammo importing already approved and it will take that long for it to conclude. That you can't find it today is because of long (think multiple months) delays in ocean freight due to COVID-19 that affects all consumer goods, and panic buying by people who mistakenly think the ban will immediately end all import of the stuff and who rush to get as much as they can before it is gone.
9MMand223only said:
Unclenick, this shortage we been experiencing has lasted this long, due to ammo manufacturers having contracts with governments and supplying them. They prioritize government over us.
According to the NSSF, the U.S. civilian ammunition market in the last decade has been about 15 billion rounds a year. Government contracts have been about 1.5 billion rounds a year and thus are not large enough to account for the kind of drain we now see. The only exception is when the military needs to replenish stockpiles, as it did after a decade in Iraq. That added demand for about 4 billion more rounds than usual causing a diversion of a portion of civilian manufacturing capacity to supplement Lake City for about two years. But then it was over. There is no such replenishing going on currently, as is evidenced by new Lake City ammunition and cartridge cases still showing up in the civilian market periodically. If they were currently stockpiling, it would all be kept by the military.
The real problem is the 15 Billion round civilian market average has now gone the way of the dinosaur. I am hoping the NSSF will come out with figures for last year soon, but if all twelve million new gun owners from the last two years bought a hundred rounds each for their new guns, that's 1.2 billion rounds additional demand right there, and you know a lot of them will shoot that up in a week and want more. Add the over-buyers to them and I wouldn't be surprised if the civilian demand was at 150%-200% of historic levels this last year. The fact the ammo plants have added hundreds of employees and are now running three shifts is evidence that it must be big numbers like that. Winchester says it produced more hunting ammunition last year than in any other year in history, and you know government contracts are not going to be for hunting ammunition.
The numbers are mind-boggling, and a massive increase in civilian market demand is the only thing that fits.
TruthTellers said:
With true inflation running about 20%
More like 7%. However, surveys show the average person's perception is that it is much higher than it actually is. This is due to a tendency of the human brain to remember things that alarm it, like the prices for favorite items that jump out at you because they show above-average increases. In that situation, we tend to forget that boring things like the water bill haven't gone up as much (at least, not in most places).
I shoot about 1,000 cartridges a month except when traveling overseas--much to the amazement of locals who wonder why I never seem to get any better. 
Primers go fast.