Obama Salutes His Cheering Supporters at Massive Portland Rally!!

What percentage of Pennsylvania voters are black? Obama will be starting from whatever that percentage is. McCain, however, will be starting from ZERO.
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Well, but Bush just barely lost Pennsylvania in 2004, by 51% to 49%.

And Clinton very solidly defeated Obama in Pennsylvania in this year's primary.

So if McCain cannot win that Blue state, then he probably cannot win any of them.

The sad truth may be, however, that President Bush's Presidency has so badly turned the American people off to the Republican Party, that even the weakest Democratic candidate could defeat McCain.

It is too bad that Ralph Nader is not a Democrat. I think that McCain would have a good chance against him.

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I still think we have a lot of ground to cover before November.

Clinton has not bowed out of the race. And I would wager they still have dirty trick or two up thier sleeves to play to try and influence things.

The Democratic Convention could change some people minds, especially if it results in riots and such.

The Debate between McCain and Obama should be insightful.

I am just saying, things change and you never know what is around the corner. :cool:
 
Zogby poll today says Obama is leading McCain 48% to 40%.

An Obama presidency is, I believe, inevitable.

The good news is, its one more thing we can blame on Bush.
 
Margin of error was +/- 3 So that would bring Obama down to 45 and McCain to 43

Pretty close, and like I said earlier still a lot of ground to cover.
 
Obama has had the luxury of a compliant media and catching his opponent off-guard early on. If he enters the general, and the paid media and 527's start publicizing all his dirt, his negatives will ratchet up quickly. Release the hounds!
 
Does the crowd in the pictures of the Obama rally really look to be one third the size of King's March on Washington back in '63? It sure doesn't to me.

To me, that looks like a whole lot less than the claimed 75,000-80,000 people reported by the newspapers. It looks like about half that.

Just more propaganda, more cheerleading from the press for this pompous gas bag Obama.
 
Margin of error was +/- 3 So that would bring Obama down to 45 and McCain to 43
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That kind of unrealistic optimism is why the republicans will lose. They can't see that a majority of people don't agree with them any more. Even if you are correct, a 45/43 split is still a pretty good Obama victory..

Also, since the poll was +/- 3%, it is also possible it could be Obama 51% and McCain 37%.

I dont think the Republicans will wake up til after the election.

Based on what I see now, an Obama win seems very likely, and I think he will do well in the South.
 
I agree that the polls are very early. But the fact that Obama is ahead, so soon after the Jeremiah Wright story, and his wife making the comments about being proud about America, is a little troubling.

The thing I think is most compelling though, is that he should be able to carry at least some of the south without much problem. Without a clean sweep through the south, it will be hard for any Republican to win.
 
benign.neglect,

Did I miss the election? it sounds as if you have thrown in the towel and just accept that Obama will win. There is still a lot of time left, don't settle just yet for the worst outcome, there's still a chance
 
I will vote for McCain, but I know I am voting for a loser. I don't think he stands a chance against Obama. The south is the key to this election, and I predict Obama will carry at least one or two southern states. There is not much way for McCain to win if this happens.

Many southern states voted for Huckabee in the primary over McCain. There is just not much enthusiasm for McCain and I expect republican turn out to be low.

Obama on the other hand will have massive, near 100 percent turn out of the Afro-American community. In Georgia, 40 percent of the voters are black. These will all vote for Obama. That means Obama starts the race with a 40% lead over McCain. If only 12% of white Georgia voters will vote for Obama, he will win in Georgia.

I am pretty certain McCain cannot expect 88% of the white vote in Georgia.
 
The south is the key to this election, and I predict Obama will carry at least one or two southern states. There is not much way for McCain to win if this happens.
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Not so fast, Pennsylvania and Michigan may come into play against Obama. I wouldn't start counting those chickens yet.
 
I dont think the Republicans will wake up til after the election.
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I doubt that they wake up then either. They will just blame their loss on Ron Paul or Bob Barr and point fingers at everyone else.
 
You could be right. I am certain they will try to blame their loss on any 3rd party candidates they can find, even if they are defeated by a greater margin than that candidate actually draws.
 
There are relatively large black populations in both of those states
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Didn't help him in the primaries in Pennsylvania. It will break worse for him in the general. Michigan is an unknown, but has a similar racial composition as PA (11%PA/14%MI).
 
His performance in the south will be strong, and overcome problems in other regions.

Only 12 % of white Georgia voters have to vote for Obama in order for him to win Georgia, for example. Its similar in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina.
 
His performance in the south will be strong, and overcome problems in other regions.
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It's about electoral, not total popular, votes. I think you're giving too much credit. I think I'll keep fighting his election. Even liberal leaning Wisconsin is in play. If those 3 states break for McCain, Obama would have to sweep the South. I don't think it's over
 
Obama has done the impossible.

If, two or three years ago, we had run a poll on TFL asking if anyone could make Hillary Clinton look good by comparison, the overwhelming answer would've been, "Are you freaking out of your mind??? No way!!"

Whatever his other flaws, Obama has managed to make Hillary Clinton look almost acceptable.

And that's amazing.

pax
 
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