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You state:
First, the gun has to been seen, and recognised, and second, the bad guy actually has to be deterred by the sight of the gun. These are things you simply cannot count on.
Emphasis by AZAK
Let's look at some stats:
raftman post73
When using guns in self-defense, 91.1% of the time not a single shot is fired.
http://www.gunfacts.info/pdfs/gun-fa...5.1-screen.pdf
We all know that stats can be misleading; however, if the numbers are anywhere near accurate, even with a large error factor, then at least half of the time, or more (up to over 90%), the mere presentation of a firearm has/will deter the aggressor in a self-defense situation.
Recognition that it is a firearm is much easier/scarier for the aggressor if it is quickly recognizable as a firearm, for example a stainless steel Government size 1911 versus a black Beretta 21a.
I personally like those odds. One little variable, that some dismiss as meaningless, that can make all of my hard earned practice NOT have to be used in a self-defense situation up to over 90% of the time sounds very good to me.
Of course the other functions of a firearm are paramount (reliability, accuracy, your ability to use the firearm, etc..); however, if the aggressor did not have to recognize
and be scared of the firearm, then we all could just use our fingers, cock our thumb back as we pointed our index finger at center mass and watch the aggressor leave 9 times out of 10.
One could make a solid argument that the mere recognition/scariness factor statistically can outweigh actual self-defense shooting accuracy. Just take a look at stats involving police shootings, or self-defense shootings. What is the percentage of actual hits versus misses?
My point being that I believe that appearance/"scariness factor" is an important variable when considering a self-defense firearm, and that dismissing this out of hand is not positive. And that some firearms do have a higher "scariness factor" than others.
Massad Ayoob used eight photos within his book
In The Gravest Extreme. The text that accompanies one of these eight images mentions "increasing deterrent effect"; along with other passages in the book discussing this same topic. (Want more, read his book.)
With all of that said, I prefer to carry concealed for self-defense Commander or Government sized guns. I own a "pocket pistol" or two, and feel much better served with the larger "scarier" looking firearms. I know that I "can" defend myself with a "pocket pistol", but I would rather have a higher likelyhood of NOT having to shoot by carrying a "scarier" gun.