RickB
Assuming we're talking about a self-defense scenario, how do you know you will get more than one shot? The first shot is overwhelmingly the most important, so I'd place volume of fire way behind first-round hit and the effectiveness of that round.
Exactly.
How do you know you will only get one shot?
I KNOW that
I can get 2 - 3 shots into a vital zone of a standard target in the same time
I can get 1 shot of a more "powerful" caliber.
How do you know you will only face one attacker and that your "first-round hit" will be exactly where it needs to be on a target that is actively trying to kill you?
The only way you are going to stop someone is hit something vital. How do you know that you will always hit something vital?
Remember, in the "real world" the targets aren't standing still facing you at 7 yards with scoring circle denoting the "vital zones". They are going to be crouching, running, diving behind cover, swinging a knife/club/machete, shooting at you, etc. It will be a dynamic environment. You are going to be hopped up on adrenaline, hopefully moving off the line of attack, seeking cover, watching your line of fire for innocents, etc. It most likely won't be like Clint Eastwood in the Unforgiven.
The only way you will drop someone instantly hitting the brainstem/spinal cord that is about the width of your thumb. Otherwise, you need to put holes in the target. The bigger the holes the better, but more holes is better than bigger holes. 2 .355" holes adding up to .70" is better than one hole that is .40". You have both more holes to let air in and 2 chances to hit that thumb width target. (Yes, I know that hollowpoints open up, but there is no guarantee other than the bullet diameter)
Do some studies on some simunitions engagements and see what happens when people are really shooting at each other.
But go out and figure out what makes
YOU more effective. If you personally can put 2-3 "fight stopping" hits in multiple targets on demand under reasonable time contraints with a .40 or a .45 you are effective with that caliber and you will be able to enjoy the added power benefits of a larger diameter and better penetration. If you can only make 1 hit per target in the same time constraints as you can make 2 or 3 with a 9mm, you would be more "effective" with the 9mm.
I met some guys from the Memphis SWAT team at a class that were using Sig 229s in .40 that were WAY more "effective" than I could ever dream of being. But they do that for a living and practice ALOT more than I do. Not to mention being 2x my size.