Basing decisions on such statistical conclusions is what leads people to build homes in 100 year flood zones. They rely on the fact that such a flood has already happened to establish that there home is safe for the foreseeable future. They get shocked when they get flooded out, and even more shocked when it happens again.
How Many Spare Mags?
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Basing decisions on such statistical conclusions is what leads people to build homes in 100 year flood zones. They rely on the fact that such a flood has already happened to establish that there home is safe for the foreseeable future. They get shocked when they get flooded out, and even more shocked when it happens again.
Glenn E. Meyer
New member
I've been hit by lightning. That's a rare event. A friend of mine lived through a DC-8 crash that killed quite a few. So when we went to a lecture where the dude said, it's as rare as being hit by lightning or being in a plane crash - we both laughed to ourselves.
Carry a gun and one reload. That's the reasonable middle ground. Now go drink Eggnog (Nod to Capt. Charlie).
Carry a gun and one reload. That's the reasonable middle ground. Now go drink Eggnog (Nod to Capt. Charlie).
I'm going to have to call BS on that one. The odds of two individuals not only having gone through such rare events, but being friends and being in a lecture where such a comment was made are so statistically low as to be impossible. Thus, the event could never have occurred.
Brian Pfleuger
Moderator Emeritus
Both are far more likely than needing a reload. Now, if you were surfing and got hit by lightning, then bit by a shark before you were rescued, then the ambulance that picked you up was involved in an accident causing you to be air-lifted, resulting in a fatal helicopter crash, you'd probably be in the same statistical neighborhood.
Point being, there's a BIG difference between rare and virtually unheard of.
Someone will say, again, that it's not the odds, it's the stakes. So, I'll head that of by saying, again, that it is BOTH the odds and the stakes. The odds of a meteor landing on your house are 182,138,880,000,000 to 1. Since that number is only 180 times less likely than needing a reload, you'd better be ready. A meteor strike is an almost certain fatal event. You'd better live a couple miles under ground, unless of course you're willing to play the odds instead of the stakes.
By David Armstrong:
What does DGU mean? I thought Dr Kleck estimates that handguns are presented, but not actually fired, about 2,000,000 times a year to prevent crime. If you figure the adult population of the US is about 250,000,000 (just a guess) then the odds of needing a handgun to prevent a crime are about 1 in 125. And that's just one year. Over a lifetime it would seem that the odds of needing a handgun would be fairly substantial. What am I missing here?
Thanks,
TF
What does DGU mean? I thought Dr Kleck estimates that handguns are presented, but not actually fired, about 2,000,000 times a year to prevent crime. If you figure the adult population of the US is about 250,000,000 (just a guess) then the odds of needing a handgun to prevent a crime are about 1 in 125. And that's just one year. Over a lifetime it would seem that the odds of needing a handgun would be fairly substantial. What am I missing here?
Thanks,
TF
not sure about this odds thing.But I know for sure I carry a extra mag to a ripe old age and never need it cool.If I need a extra mag and don't have one I'm not gonna make a ripe old age.
besides I might need to shoot something tomorrow,if I do I'll still have a full gun on the way home.
besides I might need to shoot something tomorrow,if I do I'll still have a full gun on the way home.
Hope I'm not being too philosophical, but it seems some are willing to prepare themselves to a degree equal to the likelyhood it will happen. A deadly force situation, that is.
Doesn't sound like a wise practice since the odds are that the severity of the attack we face will be the same regardless of those odds.
Would you prepare for an earthquake or flood using that philosophy?
Doesn't sound like a wise practice since the odds are that the severity of the attack we face will be the same regardless of those odds.
Would you prepare for an earthquake or flood using that philosophy?
Whirlwind06
New member
DGU = Defensive Gun Use
rampage841512
New member
Two, same stuff in them as in the gun.
Brian Pfleuger
Moderator Emeritus
Yes. The house where I grew up was 100 feet or more higher than flood stage so we did not have flood insurance. There hasn't been a major earthquake in my area in recorded history, hence, I have not earthquake plan.
Let's say it again. It's not the stakes OR the odds. It's both. Do you get on airplanes? Do you go surfing? Hunting? Ride in a car? All these things are more likely to kill you than not having a reload for your CCW. Odds are if anything kills you, besides natural death, it will be a car accident. We still ride around in cars. If it was "the stakes not the odds" we'd never sit in a car.
Actually, the odds we're talking about are the odds of an attack severe enough to require a reload, not just any attack. If you happen to be the victim of such an attack the odds are obviously irrelevant but if you are involved in a SD incident the odds are VERY, VERY high that you will not need that reload.
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Brian Pfleuger
Moderator Emeritus
No, they're not.
Ok, one more time It's not just the odds or the stakes. IT'S BOTH!
The stakes are very high. The odds are high ENOUGH to justify my CCW. The odds of needing a reload are NOWHERE NEAR high enough to justify my carrying a reload.
That's just, well, I don't know what that is....
Glenn E. Meyer
New member
Ok, Buzz - you made me laugh. I got touch by the divine walking across a parking lot in Buffalo carrying a box of IBM cards to the computer center across a large flat parking lot during a thunderstorm and carrying an umbrella high (good plan). Big flash and simultaneous boom and the electrons came from the umbrella into my noggin. Hit me in the nose piece of my hippy granny glasses (this was the 60's). Ouch.
My buddy was in a DC-8 that ran out of gas on the way to the Portland Airport and crashed. The front of the plane had its passengers killed. The scary thing was that the stewardesses wanted to move all the kids to the front. My friend kept his baby with him and his wife in the back and they made it.
The coincidence of being together was that we were both psych folks. Then, it was a statistics seminar and that's why the speaker was talking about odds.
Years later, I took my daughter to Buffalo and showed her the site of the hit. Then a few years after that, our Buffalo relatives came to TX to visit. We took them out for BBQ and guess what a hellacious thunderstorm broke out while we were having ribs. We got to the parking lot and saw a long flat run to car as the lightning flashed. My kid and I looked at each other and said - NO, sir! and we waited for it to pass.
So I carry an extra mag.
My buddy was in a DC-8 that ran out of gas on the way to the Portland Airport and crashed. The front of the plane had its passengers killed. The scary thing was that the stewardesses wanted to move all the kids to the front. My friend kept his baby with him and his wife in the back and they made it.
The coincidence of being together was that we were both psych folks. Then, it was a statistics seminar and that's why the speaker was talking about odds.
Years later, I took my daughter to Buffalo and showed her the site of the hit. Then a few years after that, our Buffalo relatives came to TX to visit. We took them out for BBQ and guess what a hellacious thunderstorm broke out while we were having ribs. We got to the parking lot and saw a long flat run to car as the lightning flashed. My kid and I looked at each other and said - NO, sir! and we waited for it to pass.
So I carry an extra mag.
Well, thanks, but I know what the subject matter is.
Carrying a gun when the odds are against using it, but not having a quick reload because the odds are even more against needing one, is a tactical philosophy born of a mind wired up differently than mine, as well as being against most training philosophy.
However, I fully acknowledge the right of any one to stand there with an empty (or at least, not fully charged) pistol after the shooting stops while waiting for the police, who could, depending on circumstances, be a while in coming---while you're wondering where Bubba's buddy is at (if you even knew he had one).
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I think the correct answer for this question is - There is no CORRECT answer.
It's hard to argue that 1 mag is better than 2, 2 better than 3, 3 better than 4, etc.
I think it all depends on what YOU feel comfortable with.
Should I only carry the gun with the highest mag capacity possible?
Am I at more risk when carrying my 8rd Sig than I am with a 15rd G19?
If so, then why would ANYONE carry an 8rd Sig to begin with?
Why dont we all carry hi cap pistols?
I dont have the answer, but I personally feel just fine with one mag for everyday carry...
It's hard to argue that 1 mag is better than 2, 2 better than 3, 3 better than 4, etc.
I think it all depends on what YOU feel comfortable with.
Should I only carry the gun with the highest mag capacity possible?
Am I at more risk when carrying my 8rd Sig than I am with a 15rd G19?
If so, then why would ANYONE carry an 8rd Sig to begin with?
Why dont we all carry hi cap pistols?
I dont have the answer, but I personally feel just fine with one mag for everyday carry...
David Armstrong
Moderator
DGU means Defensive Gun Use and it means whatever the person using the term wants it to mean, as there is no formal or technical definition. Kleck (and I'm paraphrasing very broadly here) uses it to indicate any time a person believes the reference to, display of, acual shooting of, or threat to use a firearm helped them in a threatening situation.
David Armstrong
Moderator
Yes. There are different levels of severity (threat) to worry about. I do not prepare for an earthquake where I live. The odds of it happening are so remote that it just does not enter my thoughts. When I lived in California, on the other hand, preparations for an earthquake made sense even though the chance of needing the preparations was pretty slim.
When I was in Oklahoma I did not prepare for or worry about a flood. We lived on a very high elevation. Where I am now a flood is a rare but distinct possibility, so I took out a small flood insurance policy to help me repair should the rare event occur. Proper understanding of risks allows me to prepare properly. Again, that doesn't mean you shouldn't have an earthquake kit if yo want one, or tha tyou shouldn't buy flood insurance if you live on the top of a mountain if that is what you want.
Well, it would enter your thoughts if the chance of an earthquake were has high as needing a gun. You carry a gun don't you?
Most of us have some supplies at home that would help us survive some sort of traumatic event over a period of time-- and that includes ammo. In the event an event happens when we aren't at home (or even in our vehicle), it could be instrumental to our survival that we have extra ammo on our persons, also.
The wisdom in having extra ammo isn't limited to needing a reload in one gunfight. Some people we've heard from on this thread don't carry enough ammo to reload their pistol afterwards.
I guess now we can hear about the overwhelming odds that the police will be there forthwith and make reloading unnecessary.
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