How many shots is enough

I was reading an interesting analysis of "stopping power", which took a somewhat different approach. Most, that are or are claimed to be based on observed shooting results, use percentage of "one shot stops" as the sole yardstick.
Someone took a look at what happens when one shot didn't stop the altercation, which would include the results of a lot of shootings that would be excluded if you were interested in only one-shot stops.
What was discovered was that there really wasn't a huge disparity in handgun ammo performance in one-shot stop cases, but if one didn't stop it, there's a strong correlation between the size of the bullet and how many additional shots were "required" (fired).
So, if you know for a fact that a single shot is going to end it, you might as well use a .22, but if you don't know how many rounds it's going to take, it's likely that the bigger the bullet, the fewer additional rounds will be required.
I carry a .45 that's loaded 6+1, and sometimes carry a 9mm loaded 13+1, and I'm comfortable with either (and sometimes both).
 
What was discovered was that there really wasn't a huge disparity in handgun ammo performance in one-shot stop cases, but if one didn't stop it, there's a strong correlation between the size of the bullet and how many additional shots were "required" (fired).
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Do you remember where you read this or who wrote it? I'd really like to read it.
How many shots is enough?
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It depends on the situation.

I've never had to fire my gun in self-defense yet, so at least to date, for me, no shots has always been enough.

In many cases, a single shot is sufficient to end the attack--not usually because it disables the attacker but because it rearranges his priorities without the need for a second round to hammer the point home.

And in some cases, it takes more than one shot--generally when the attacker isn't ready to give up easily.

Here's a very basic/simplified overview of the multi-shot scenario.

If you talk to the experts, they tell you not to expect that a single handgun round will be sufficient to stop an attacker. So let's assume that we might need 2 hits to have a good chance of ending the attack. It may take a lot more than that, or it might take only one, but 2 is a good place to start.

If you read police shooting reports, you'll find that, unlike in the movies, people often miss what they shoot at. Especially when the target is moving and shooting back. In shootouts with criminals, police officers score a hit with about every 1 out of 3 shots, on average.

If you pay attention to crime reports, you'll find that criminals like to keep the advantage in their favor when possible and that means that it's not terribly uncommon for the criminal to bring some backup to your self-defense shooting.

So let's say you encounter 2 attackers, you shoot about as well as the average police officer and you need to hit each attacker twice to have a good chance of winning (surviving).

Assuming you get to shoot all your shots before getting disabled or killed yourself, and assuming you're good enough to avoid wasting bullets on an attacker who has already been hit twice and is therefore already disabled (according to the rules of our simple scenario), your chances are as follows.

The first number is the number of shots in your self-defense gun. The second number is your chance of making 2 hits on each of 2 attackers before your gun runs empty--assuming that your hit rate is 30% .

5 : 3.1%
6 : 7.1%
7 : 12.6%
8 : 19.4%
9 : 27%
10: 35%

If those numbers make you want to swallow hard, and then get up to go watch TV in hopes that you'll forget them quickly, we can look at the less challenging situation where there's only one attacker but all our other assumptions remain unchanged.

5 : 47.2%
6 : 58%
7 : 67.1%
8 : 74.5%
9 : 80.4%
10: 85.1%

Here's more on the topic.
http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=494257
 
There are a variety of studies that some will swear by and others will rail against. When you step back and look at the common points, it's basically like this:

- most private citizen defensive gun uses (DGUs) involve 0-2 shots fired.

- reloads are extremely rare (one analysis of 482 documented DGUs determined that about 0.5% in the study involved reloads)

- in the vast majority of uses, the stop is psychological. The bad guy quits, because "GUN!!!"

Caliber is a non-issue in most DGUs. A 5 shot J-Frame is plenty for the average DGU. A person could carry one and be well prepared for most cases. When it comes down to it, we're ALL playing the odds to varying degrees. If a person is content being ready for most situations, I understand. Personally, I prefer to prepare for exceptional circumstances.
 
I've been legally concealed-carrying since 1989. 95% of that time it's been with 5 rounds of .357. Occasionally it's been 16 rounds of 9mm. Rarely it's been 8 rounds of 45acp.

In that time this has been sufficient, backed with thousands of practice rounds down range.

To date no ZombieNaziNinjaBabyRapers have crossed my path, though I did have an interesting encounter once in Kansas City (opening my jacket was sufficient to reinforce my message to the concerned citizens I needed no assistance with a flat tire).
 
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Firepower....

When some say "use enough gun" it's not a issue of carrying 5, 10, or 15 rounds. It's a issue of using the best type ammunition for the caliber & having good marksmanship skills.
Learning what rounds work best & training properly will work best.
 
How many shots, of what, is enough for concealed carry self defense? What say you and why?
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There's no one-size-fits-all answer.

For me, even five in a j-frame revolver is enough. But I'm not wealthy, a celebrity, or a public figure. I'm not involved in law enforcement or other risky business. I don't dress like I'm rich or drive a new expensive vehicle. And I'm bigger than the average guy. All that makes me an unlikely target, so an attacker would most probably see me as a "target of opportunity" and not someone he's been planning to mug. No group of gangbangers will be coming after me for my goods. I feel comfortable with as few as five 38spl rounds.

Everyone needs to do an assessment of their situation and prepare accordingly.
 
We were advised to get CHLs because of a stalker at the time. We were advised to be ready to empty the mag, reload and empty another mag if necessary due to the stalker's motivation and penchant to vicodin addiction. So in our instance, 30 is enough. :(
 
American citizen living in Guatemala City, Guatemala, Central America:

1. I CC a SW442 (in repair due to a squib) which carries five rounds of .38 Special along with one speed strip and one speedloader.

2. The B-T.380 with 5+1 in the gun with two extra magazines each with 5 rounds.

3. The CD M-5 in .45 with 10+1 in the gun and an extra magazine with 10 rounds.

4. The DP-51 is carried with 10+1 in the gun along with an extra magazine with 10 or two magazines with 10 each.

Having listed all this, the answer to your question, I believe, is simple; gun carry rotation and situation will determine what is enough.

BTW: nice thread topic.
 
Currently I carry an 11 shot 45 on my right hip and an extra mag on my left. I don't think I need that much but I really like the pistol and it happens to hold 10+1. The mag on the other side just makes weight feel more balanced (Yes, OCD is hard to live with). But I never felt the least bit undergunned when I was carrying a 5 shot .357 for many years. Strange I never had to carry a reload in the left pocket. The only time I ever felt undergunned was when facing a rather ugly pitbull and all I had between it and my great dane was a keltec .32 and that had nothing to do with number of shots.
 
5 or 7 depending on which gun I carry. You can pretty much forget surviving a fire fight with a handgun. If there are more than 2 bad guys you're most like a goner.
 
Posted by RBid: A 5 shot J-Frame is plenty for the average DGU. A person could carry one and be well prepared for most cases.
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Are you referring to the mean, mode, or median?

Encounters involving two or more violent criminal actors are probably more likely than those involving one; one shop stops are not something on which to bet; and shooting at rapidly moving targets is difficult.

Using JohnKSa's assumptions, that J-Frame gives one three chances out of one hundred to prevail, and that may be best case.

John's analysis led me to retire my J-Frame from primary carry the summer before last.
 
I agree with the opinion of our own Art Eatman:

If you ever have a real need for more than a couple of magazines, your problem is not a shortage of magazines. It's a shortage of people on your side of the argument.
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Personally, I typically carry no reloads. Occasionally, for no reason whatsoever except that I feel like it, I carry one spare mag. NY compliant Glock 33
 
How many shots is enough?

However many end up being enough. *shrug*

For most of us on a day-to-day basis, the answer is zero.

There is no real upward limit to the possibility, although the higher the number, the more absurd the situation you would need that number for becomes.
 
For me....99% of the time I carry a 1911 in .45 acp ....( with 8 + 1 )....so 9 rounds is plenty ....and once in a while I'll carry a Sig 239 in .40S&W ( with 7 + 1 ) ....and once in a while I'll carry a K frame revolver in .357 mag with 6 rounds...( so for me, 6 to 9 rounds is plenty )....

( and I shoot 10 - 12 boxes a week ...for Tactical practice / so I'm pretty confident in my ability to put shots on target - fairly quickly and "tactically accurate" which I think is center chest ( nipple to nipple -- and down to belly button in a rectangle )...

I practice mostly because I like shooting ...and maintaining my skills with handguns ...

In my opinion - its Defense !! .../ not a shootout at the OK Corral.../ statistically, it'll be over very quickly with only a few rounds fired.
 
Normally I carry a double derringer in .38spc loaded with .38 s&w long, so it is easy to controle very precise. Sometimes I carry a Walther PPK in .32ACP if I wear a jacket.
 
A few years back I went from a J-frame with a spare speed loader to a G26 with a spare 12-round mag in my pocket. My reasoning went like this: I read somewhere that cops had a hit rate of around 20%. (I know the figure is debatable, but I am telling you my reasoning at the time). That would mean that I should expect on average just one hit from my J-frame. But at the same time, we say that handgun rounds are not reliable one-stop shots. So on average, I couldn't expect to stop anyone by shooting the J-frame empty.

I know there are gaps in that logic, but even if I increase my hit rate substantially, or get a magic one-stop shot, I am not allowing for a second BG, and I am not allowing at all for being on the bad end of the bell curve with my hit rate or my stop rate. So I started carrying more rounds.

Is it enough? Not going to be sure until something happens, and that is the conundrum that is essential to these discussions. My current carry is comfortable, and I hope it to be adequate if a need arises. That is about as much as I can say.
 
'Tis all a matter of which statistic we want to believe.

According to the NRA's Armed Citizen analysis, in 482 incidents, only 3 required reloads and one of those was to kill a lion with a .32 caliber revolver. The average and median number of shots fired was 2 and "When more than 2 shots were fired, it generally appeared that the defender's initial response was to fire until empty."

Logically, putting the "when more than 2 shots were required.." and "reloads were required in 3 incidents" statements together, the implication is that the reloads only happened when the defender fired until empty and the likelihood is high that the only times more than 2 shots were those 3 incidents.
 
It depends.

For example, if I'm going to a movie theater or shopping mall then I carry a Glock 19 or 27 with a standard capacity magazine and a Glock 17 magazine in a magazine carrier on my belt. The Glock 19 is my preferred general-purpose carry gun and I carry it whenever I can.

Other times, depending on the level of risk and/or a need for greater concealability, I carry a Kahr PM-9 (7 +1) or Seecamp 32 (6 +1) with a spare magazine.
 
Depending on dress, weather, and situation, I have several guns of varying capacities and calibers that I classify as "carry guns." However, the majority of the time I carry, and feel quite comfortable, with a five-shot .38 Special revolver and an addition five rounds in a speed strip. Is it the ideal setup for fighting off multiple attackers? No, it probably isn't but then again if I'm attacked by multiple armed people willing to brave gunfire in order to accomplish their goal I will, in all probability, run out of time and distance long before I run out of ammunition regardless of the capacity of my handgun.

While capacity is certainly an attribute that should be considered, it isn't the only piece of the puzzle nor, in most cases, the most important piece of the puzzle. For me, the other positive attributes of a small revolver outweigh its limited capacity.
 
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