how many rounds

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Doc Holliday 1950

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I have researched this question as to what is the Average shots fired by non LEO's for self defense. I keep coming up with 2. "The perceived need for massive quantities of ammo, reloading, and precision shooting at distance is largely a figbar of people's imaginations." this is a quote from The Thinking Gunfighter: Self Defense Findings.
So my question is. Have we been brain washed into carrying weapons that have mags that have 10-15-20+ rounds and why?
I expect a lot of heat on this post. However, I really expect some real personal answers on this. If anyone cares why I asked this question, it's because of 99% of the guys and Ladies that I see at my range using Semis that fire 10-15 or 20+ rounds at such close range that you could spit further that that distance.

Last, I guess that the answers to my post will depend on those who carry Wheels vs. those who carry Semi's

Respectfully,

Doc
 
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Have we been brain washed into carrying weapons that have mags that have 10-15-20+ rounds and why?
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Maybe. But if you can comfortably carry 10-15-20+ rounds, why wouldn't you?

Key word is average. For every set of data, there is going to be outliers.

Do you want to be the outlier that needs 10 rounds? If 1/100 shootings requires 10+ rounds, someone is going to need more than 2 shots.
 
I think your response is excellent. However, my question is under "normal circumstances" to carry and shoot that many rounds is very rare. If one needs that type of fire power then one is in the wrong place at the wrong time. IMHO
we, as responsible gun owners, have no reason to be in this situation. I am sorry but do not agree to this line of reasoning.
Again I ask. Why do we need that many rounds for self protection?
in my profession, I understand the need for being armed at al times. But, if I or my wife needs more than 5 or 6 discharges then we are toast.
 
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Doc Holliday 1950 said:
I think your response is excellent. However, my question is under "normal circumstances" to carry and shoot that many rounds is very rare. If one needs that type of fire power then one is in the wrong place at the wrong time. IMHO we, as responsible gun owners, have no reason to be in this situation. I am sorry but do not agree to this line of reasoning.[/
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Doc, I understand what you mean when you talk about the odds of needing more than x number of rounds for concealed carry. That said, I think it is important to remember that simply using your firearm in a self defense situation is a statistical outlier. "Normal cirsumstances" at least in my lifetime, is that my gun goes into it's holster when I leave the house, and out when I get home, and stays cozy and warm in my waistband for all times in between. If I were to carry based on what I expected to happen, I would either a) carry nothing, since I don't go out expecting to get into a lethal force situation or b) have to question whether I am committing a crime or simply doing something very stupid.

Simply put, we carry based on what we know is possible, not what we presume will happen. You're logic, from my reading, would convince me NOT to carry, as under "normal circumstances" I do not need my firearm. I, however, carry because there may be a time when I do need it, and I want it close by when that time comes. In that circumstances, while we are already dealing in the realm of the unlikely, the difference between needing 5 rounds or 12 rounds may not be as broad as you would think.

Personally, I carry both autoloaders and revolvers, depending on my attire, my plans for the day, and my mood. I don't begrudge anyone who feels they need to carry more than I do, because that is their perrogative. I don't assume they will be looking for trouble any more so than I think the person who keeps 6 months of nonperishible food in his home is trying to bring down civilization as we know it.
 
I don't think it is possible to know how much is "enough" until after a situation is over.

My feeling is that you should carry as many rounds of the most effective caliber that you can, within the constraints of it being a gun you can handle and fire effectively, and that you will actually carry.

I have found that what I will actually carry is a S&W J-frame 5-shot .38, since I can pocket carry it. I have tried in the past to dress around a larger firearm, but I just won't do it consistently. I will, however, put a J-frame in a pocket holster without a second thought.

So, 5 better be enough. If not, well, I guess that'll just be my day.
 
My feeling is that you should carry as many rounds of the most effective caliber that you can.
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Excellent point. "Effective caliber" are the key words here. If you use a top grade JHP (PDX1, HST, Golden Saber, Gold Dots) in any service caliber (9mm, .40 S&W, .45 ACP, .357, 38 Special etc.) you are set. Honestly, I'm a .45 ACP fan, but 9mm will allow nearly everyone to shoot more accurately, have more capacity, and get back on target the fastest. The ballistics between all three are effectively equal.

For some folks concealability is easier with a .380. If that is the case, then it is still an excellent choice. Some people out there will make .380 into a worthless and weak round - it is not.

If you can shoot a .44 Magnum the best - go ahead and carry it. Everyone is going to be different. There are people out there who are better with a .357 snub nose than a 5" 1911.
 
Here's my worthless opinion.

I think carrying 100 rounds is worthless if you can't draw AND fire fast enough to shoot the first two (or first two out of three) rounds in a SD situation.

I also think that being able to hit a shotgun shell at 100 yards with your handgun is worthless (although very cool) if the BG is shooting at you before you get your firearm into play.

Iow, I think it's far more important AND practical to work on a fast draw and shooting a pie plate at 7 yards than it is to carry a massive amount of ammo which they'll find on your dead body because you weren't fast enough on the draw.

I also think I should practice what I preach, someday...
 
I never paid all too much attention to capacity in a carry gun, but I no longer carry all too much....but I do keep a revolver close by when at home asleep, so take all this with a grain of salt....I think a 5-6 shot revolver in a caliber that you can shoot well under stress makes an excellent carry gun. Do you "need" 10-30 rounds in a self-defense situation? Well, maybe your situation is that multiple assailants will be attacking you in a coordinated fashion. I guess you need to be armed like that then. That isn't me nor my lifestyle and I'm not the police, nor am I looking for situations I can't get out of.

If you prefer and shoot an auto better, generally their capacities are higher so just fill the mag up. If you want to carry a second or third mag, have fun...I personally wouldn't. I try not to overthink this stuff anymore and just work on my shooting from draw with my preferred revolver.
 
I carry a revolver because I like revolvers.

I carry a couple of speed strips because they're small, light, and don't eat anything.

If I ever happen to need either or both, I'm having a really bad day already. I doubt another gun, or more ammo would change things much.
 
in reality... what you can shoot well ( for those 1st 2 shots ) should be most important... well after you've chosen something you'll actually carry all the time, every day... if you shoot a revolver better under stress than a semi auto, then IMO, the extra "fire power" is worthless to a dead guy, & in fact, you may have just given a bad guy another weapon & even more ammo :eek: but if you can shoot a full sized auto better, & you'll carry it "full time" then IMO, that's the better gun for you...

I actually shoot my carry gun fairly often, as it's always on my person, when I run into farm yard varmints I'd like to get rid of... the TCP I used to carry killed more treed raccoons than most will ever shoot bad guys... but I shoot revolvers better & have switched back to light weight snubbies again... & there is nothing that says you need to only carry 5 rounds... I have a 6 shot Air weight J frame in 32 H&R Magnum, & a S&W PD-351 ( 7 shot air weight J frame in 22 Magnum ) that is on my belt right now, & I find the Speer Gold Dot short barrel ammo to do just what I'm after in the 22 Magnum caliber...

I don't carry a reload... even if carrying my LCR-X 5 round 38 Special... because I expect that if I need more than 5 rounds, I really screwed up, & am likely shot anyway... I practice double taps, & thus am good for 3-4 guys with any of my lil snubbie revolvers depending on which I'm carrying...

my main goal is to avoid getting into a situation to need my gun in the 1st place... & even if I'm carrying, I'll likely never draw, if I already have a gun pointed at me, as I'm pretty much guarentied to get shot... I think the 1st response needs to be to run, if I've gotten "space" between a bad guy, & I'm cornered, that is when I'd expect to use the gun, to defend myself ( I'd draw while retreating ) a knife ( depending on the distance between us ) might require a quick draw, but if I'm already stairing at a weapon, that's a real poor time to be thinking about drawing mine ;)

so, as hard as it is to think about, I could actually get robbed at gun or knife point, & never actually draw, or let the bad guy know I have a weapon, depending on the situation... my wallet & it's contents are worth much less than my life or a trip to the hospital... however if I'm paying attention, & have properly assessed the situation before hand, I will have avoided getting in that position in the 1st place ( self defense is so much more than just carrying a weapon )
 
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my main goal is to avoid getting into a situation to need my gun in the 1st place... & even if I'm carrying, I'll likely never draw, if I already have a gun pointed at me, as I'm pretty much guarentied to get shot... I think the 1st response needs to be to run, if i've gotten "space" between a bad guy, & i'm cornered, that is when I'd expect to use the gun, to defend myself ( I'd draw while retreating ) a knife ( depending on the distance between us ) might require a quick draw, but if I'm already stairing at a weapon, that's a real poor time to be thinking about drawing mine

so, as hard as it is to think about, I could actually get robbed at gun or knife point, & never actually draw, or let the bad guy know I have a weapon, depending on the situation... my wallet & it's contents are worth much less than my life or a trip to the hospital... if I'm paying attention, & have properly assessed the situation before hand, I will have avoided getting in that position in the 1st place ( self defense is so much more than just carrying a weapon )
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Thanks for posting that. That's pretty much what I was thinking, but it was much too early for me to try to get my thoughts organized as well as you did.
 
If 1/100 shootings requires 10+ rounds, someone is going to need more than 2 shots.
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Statistics are fun, especially when you start stacking them. Before you can be the 1/100 that "requires" more than 10 shots, you must first be the 1/10,000 who will be involved in a shooting which then puts your odds at 1/1,000,000 you will need more than 10 shots. Furthermore, the average of two shots fired in an encounter does not take into account the vast majority of encounters in which no shots were fired, and the bad guy fled when a potential victim simply drew a gun. This further waters down statistics to say 1 out of 200 needing more than 10 rounds. Now lets look at those cases where more than 10 were fired. How many of those were actually required, and fired because of high adrenaline, and because the bad guy hadn't retreated fast enough? We know far more shots fired are misses than hits. People with high capacity guns tend to fire faster with less care put into each shot they fire. Would the bad guy who ran away after 5 misses not have run away if there were only 3 misses?

If the 1/100 chance of needing more rounds was realistic odds, I'd carry more, but it does not take into account the far bigger longshot that you will ever fire your weapon in self defense, and after you beat those amazing odds, that will be the 1/100 who runs out of ammo before an attacker stops advancing.
 
The real problem with statistics, hard facts and figures, is coming up with them in the first place. Even if you think that's a good place to start for planning purposes, try doing a little research to see how difficult it is to find them. Even then, they might fall apart with a slight difference in definition.

Even if you do find statistics that have relevance to your questions, chances are, anyone you tell about it will doubt it because it doesn't fit their own notion of reality. They just "know" that such and such is true, no matter what anyone else says.
 
Posted by Doc Holliday 1950:
I have researched this question as to what is the Average shots fired by non LEO's for self defense. I keep coming up with 2.
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First, I doubt your data.

Second, averages are not good bases for deciding anything.

Third, most people who have availed themselves of realistic self defense pistol shooting retrained to two times that number or more immediately.
 
Posted by TimSr:
Before you can be the 1/100 that "requires" more than 10 shots, you must first be the 1/10,000 who will be involved in a shooting which then puts your odds at 1/1,000,000 you will need more than 10 shots.
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Completely irrelevant. The question of many rounds might be needed comes into play only after at least one round is needed.

On properly addresses the conditional probability, rather than the cumulative probability.

Furthermore, the average of two shots fired in an encounter does not take into account the vast majority of encounters in which no shots were fired, and the bad guy fled when a potential victim simply drew a gun.
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Nor should it.

... I'd carry more, but it does not take into account the far bigger longshot that you will ever fire your weapon in self defense, and after you beat those amazing odds, that will be the 1/100 who runs out of ammo before an attacker stops advancing.
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What?
 
Do you drive a car? Do you wear a seatbelt? Do you make left hand turns? Do you wear a helmet and Hans device in your car?

The average American is more likely to be killed in an auto accident than any other event. No seatbelt and left hand turns are factors which increase your chance of being killed in a car.

The chances of anyone using a CCW are pretty small, and in more cases than not, the presentation of a weapon mitigates the threat. Mind you I am not advocating brandishing, and there are all kinds of discussions about this subtopic.

10 years ago, I would have said anything more than a 5 shot revolver is most likely icing. But times are changing. When I was a kid, if I "respected" the gangs and kept my distance, they would do the same with me. No longer is that true. Social unrest, inflamed racial tension, a disregard for authority, an anti-cop attitude...those have all created an environment where higher capacity is more likely to be beneficial. Sure, still a very small percentage of the time is more than say 10 rounds going to be needed. I think the data of 1-3 rounds, at night and inside 5 yards will hold even if the country goes off the deep end. Those numbers have held historically for the last 100 years from between 60-70% of all justified self defense shootings. The other 30-40% is a big enough group to warrant not relying on the average data.

Now, I think if you have a 5 shot revolver, you had better have a reload and practice reloading under pressure. I think 10 rounds is a minimum number of rounds to be at and, in over 99% of the cases, will probably be enough. But now we are to the left turns and seatbelts. If you can reduce your risk, why wouldn't you? But where does that stop. Do you carry a long gun too, just in case?

Statistics stacking is interesting for sure. 20% of LE fired rounds hit the intended person. 20% of people shot by LE die. Therefore if a cop shots at a person they have a 4% chance of death. :D
 
Assuming you are a normal upstanding person who doesn't flaunt wealth, sleep with other folks spouses or get involved in illegal "import export trade activities" what are the statistical chances of EVER needing to use any level of violence in your life much less escalating to deadly force? So why bother lugging around a couple pounds of extra weight at all? The reason is you are preparing for a very unlikely event that in itself is a statistically anomaly. So...........

Assuming you are already preparing for an unlikely worst case scenario doesn't it stand to reason that you should prepare for the worst case of the worst case?

I am not a capacity junkie so to speak and a 5 shot J is probably just fine but why not carry a GLOCK 26 with 10 to 12 rounds for basically the same real estate? Why not give yourself every option to succeed?

Now if you carry a 19+1 pistol and a backup and 4 magazines and an asp baton and and and. Then yeah you may be going a bit overboard or you need to stop going to the places you are going.

For a bedside gun, why not use a bigger gun, with better sights, lower recoil and likely a large magazine? Doesn't hurt since it's just gonna sit there between range trips in all likelihood.

The point is if you have elected to carry a gun and you have the software(training) to employ it then yeah a 5 shot snub may be fine but having additional opportunities to prevail sure cannot hurt. It's not like you are going to fall finish the worst day of your life thinking "damn I wasted like 17 bucks on all those rounds left in my mag."

Carry/shoot what YOU are skilled and confident with. Simple as that. Don't make said decisions for others.
 
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