She stands a VERY good chance, because there's lots of folks who either will vote for "anyone but a Republican," who will vote third party out of protest (which in a case of "vote against the worst candidate" is just useless), or who will just not vote.
The internet campaign has been going full force on the "anyone but a Republican" bit... Just remember that not everyone who you see posting on the internet gun boards is a gun person... Some of the folks are trying to lure HUNDREDS, if not THOUSANDS of votes.
The deciding factor will be folks who switch or who don't vote...
Figure this...
49% R
49% D
2% 3
If you take 1% and convince 'em to switch...
48% R
50% D
2% 3
Now, if you take that 1% and convince 'em to vote "anyone but Republican"
48% R
49% D
3% 3
Same result, campers.