Future of the .40 cal in Law Enforcement
- Thread starter microman
- Start date
LAPD firearm issue(s); BoA-North Hollywood shooting...
To me the 1997 Bank of America/North Hollywood shooting, which led to major changes in SOPs/dept approved sidearms had a large impact on US law enforcement agencies allowing or using .40/.357sig/.45acp caliber sidearms.
The LAPD issued the Beretta 96 .40S&W. After William Bratton(who was the Police Commissioner of the NYPD) became chief of the LAPD in the early 2000s, he allowed a few Glock models & large calibers(.40, .357sig, .45GAP, etc).
To my understanding, the big Glock 21 was issued to the elite SIS detectives. LAPD's SWAT used 1911a1 .45acp models for many years.
ClydeFrog
To me the 1997 Bank of America/North Hollywood shooting, which led to major changes in SOPs/dept approved sidearms had a large impact on US law enforcement agencies allowing or using .40/.357sig/.45acp caliber sidearms.
The LAPD issued the Beretta 96 .40S&W. After William Bratton(who was the Police Commissioner of the NYPD) became chief of the LAPD in the early 2000s, he allowed a few Glock models & large calibers(.40, .357sig, .45GAP, etc).
To my understanding, the big Glock 21 was issued to the elite SIS detectives. LAPD's SWAT used 1911a1 .45acp models for many years.
ClydeFrog
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MikeNice81
New member
From wha I've seen a lot of agencies are starting to give officer's the option to carry 9mm again. In many places it is an either/or situation. At least in my experience. Some smaller stature police officer's just have trouble with the .40 for some reason.
stephen426
New member
The .40 S&W is here to stay. While there is no such thing as the perfect cartridge, it posses characteristics that make it an excellent compromise:
- Good performance against human targets
- Similar magazine capacity to 9mm but better performance
- Acceptable level of recoil for most people (more so that 10mm)
- Huge support from ammo manufacturers (widely available/wide selection)
- Huge support from gun manufacturers (wide selection of guns chambered for .40 S&W)
- Good performance against human targets
- Similar magazine capacity to 9mm but better performance
- Acceptable level of recoil for most people (more so that 10mm)
- Huge support from ammo manufacturers (widely available/wide selection)
- Huge support from gun manufacturers (wide selection of guns chambered for .40 S&W)
I doubt .40sw is going anywhere anytime soon. I happen to be a big fan of .40sw, even though I don't own a pistol chambered for it.
Most agencies in my area, both local and state level, are sticking with the .45 or going to the .357sig. I'm kind of surprised to see the .357sig catch on so, but it's been very popular here locally. State Patrol and ALE are going to it. Every other agency seems to just stick with .45.
Personally, I don't think either previously mentioned caliber has a tremendous advantage over .40 cal... plus ammo for .40 is much cheaper. To each their own, I guess.
Most agencies in my area, both local and state level, are sticking with the .45 or going to the .357sig. I'm kind of surprised to see the .357sig catch on so, but it's been very popular here locally. State Patrol and ALE are going to it. Every other agency seems to just stick with .45.
Personally, I don't think either previously mentioned caliber has a tremendous advantage over .40 cal... plus ammo for .40 is much cheaper. To each their own, I guess.
dpetreikis
New member
Just my opinion, but I doubt it's going anywhere anytime soon. Countless government agencies use it, local PD's use it, Border Patrol uses it, FBI uses it, many private security agencies use it, not to mention a very large number of civilian CCW holders. It is effective, manageable, well-marketed and has turned in respectable performance in the years it's been in use. It has been my favorite caliber for concealed carry for over a decade now and a Glock 27 sits on my hip at this very moment.
Yes, I'd say that I expect the .40 to be with us for quite some time.
Yes, I'd say that I expect the .40 to be with us for quite some time.
It is here to stay for awhile. I prefer both 9mm and .45 over it but that doesn't matter. I don't see a return to 9mm but perhaps with alot of the newer more ergonomic pistols the .45 will take make a good market share. The recoil of a .45 IMHO (and experience) is more controlled than the .40 but whatever.
cougar gt-e
New member
I don't totally agree with your posted information. There are a lot more dead felons than the scant few you list. Heck, your information just covers a wild weekend in Chicago and not the breath of shootings over the past 20+ years of the .40s&w.
Having some background in statistical analysis, whenever I see thin data where huge amounts of information should be available, the alarm bell rings. Not saying you cherry picked to prove a point -- but someone else may have. Gasp! even ammo manufacturers have been known to market based on flawed data sets!
I don't think anyone can use "One shot stop" or "game over" to evaluate the effectiveness of a round.
There are way too many variables to get statistically reliable data.
There is the psychological factor which can either effect a cessation of hostilities negatively or positively and the psychological factor can in any given situation be present or absent.
Also, to the best of my knowledge no one has correlated shot placement with a stop. Thus you can have data on one round that can be skewed.
A .22 LR to the head is going to stop a felon whereas a .357 mag to the forearm may not. Unless there is a large set of data and somehow shot placement is taken into account you can come to invalid conclusions… ie the .22LR is a more effective round in “one shot stops” than the .357 mag.
Generally speaking a data set of less than 30 is not that statistically reliable. Which is to say that it won’t do a good job in predicting anything.
Suppose you wanted to know how lemonade you would sell on “hot” Saturdays in the summer. You would collect data on sales and temperature. You would then have a correlation between the temperature and how many drinks you sell and therefore would make better choices on how much ingredients to stock for any given Saturday. If you only sampled 20 days and planned according to that, most likely you would find that there would be times when it turns out that you had stocked too much or too little. The data from 30 Saturdays would be more predictive. The larger the data set the better the prediction.
When I see a data set of less than 30 I just think it’s not statistically valid.
The lemonade example is simple – we have Saturdays and temperature that we are correlating to sales. One shot stops or game over is much much more complex. You have variables such as shot placement, layers of clothing, body shape and size, psychological factors, and one of the other things that is not talked about much is that people are often shot twice. What do you do with the data from a shooting where one person is shot once in the chest and once in the abdomen? How does that compare to a shooting where a person is shot once in the chest?
To even begin to make sense of this data, each shooting incident would have to be examined to determine layers of clothing, shot placement, the presense and effect of drugs or alcohol, and measure penetration and recovered diameter of the bullet.
Some people who have tried to use shooting incidents to come to conclusions about “stopping power” have filtered the data – for instance excluding shots to the extremities, or only using shots to the torso for their data. But two weeks there was a shooting in Orlando where one of the perpetrators – Gary Bryant was shot in the leg by a security guard. After he was shot, he was able to crawl but he wasn’t returning fire. Bryant later died from his wound. Do you totally exclude the data from that incident from any effort to predict stopping power? There probably is something we can learn from that shooting – but what? Do we learn that under certain circumstance shooting someone in the leg in a certain spot with a certain round can end hostilities?
It’s like trying to predict the weather on any given day based on how it was on that day for the last 30 years. There are too many variables for the prediction to be useful.
My own opinion is that the best you can do is look at controlled testing of a round. Look for tests that are close to the barrel length of the gun you’re going to be using. If you’ve got something that penetrates around 14” of gelatin and expands to around .600 caliber – I think in general you have a good predictor of effectiveness. I also am not saying that "on shot stop street results" are invalid. If you find a round that penetrates 14" of gelatin and expands to around .600 cal and one shot stop street results are reporting that it is a 90% stopper - well then good.
There are way too many variables to get statistically reliable data.
There is the psychological factor which can either effect a cessation of hostilities negatively or positively and the psychological factor can in any given situation be present or absent.
Also, to the best of my knowledge no one has correlated shot placement with a stop. Thus you can have data on one round that can be skewed.
A .22 LR to the head is going to stop a felon whereas a .357 mag to the forearm may not. Unless there is a large set of data and somehow shot placement is taken into account you can come to invalid conclusions… ie the .22LR is a more effective round in “one shot stops” than the .357 mag.
Generally speaking a data set of less than 30 is not that statistically reliable. Which is to say that it won’t do a good job in predicting anything.
Suppose you wanted to know how lemonade you would sell on “hot” Saturdays in the summer. You would collect data on sales and temperature. You would then have a correlation between the temperature and how many drinks you sell and therefore would make better choices on how much ingredients to stock for any given Saturday. If you only sampled 20 days and planned according to that, most likely you would find that there would be times when it turns out that you had stocked too much or too little. The data from 30 Saturdays would be more predictive. The larger the data set the better the prediction.
When I see a data set of less than 30 I just think it’s not statistically valid.
The lemonade example is simple – we have Saturdays and temperature that we are correlating to sales. One shot stops or game over is much much more complex. You have variables such as shot placement, layers of clothing, body shape and size, psychological factors, and one of the other things that is not talked about much is that people are often shot twice. What do you do with the data from a shooting where one person is shot once in the chest and once in the abdomen? How does that compare to a shooting where a person is shot once in the chest?
To even begin to make sense of this data, each shooting incident would have to be examined to determine layers of clothing, shot placement, the presense and effect of drugs or alcohol, and measure penetration and recovered diameter of the bullet.
Some people who have tried to use shooting incidents to come to conclusions about “stopping power” have filtered the data – for instance excluding shots to the extremities, or only using shots to the torso for their data. But two weeks there was a shooting in Orlando where one of the perpetrators – Gary Bryant was shot in the leg by a security guard. After he was shot, he was able to crawl but he wasn’t returning fire. Bryant later died from his wound. Do you totally exclude the data from that incident from any effort to predict stopping power? There probably is something we can learn from that shooting – but what? Do we learn that under certain circumstance shooting someone in the leg in a certain spot with a certain round can end hostilities?
It’s like trying to predict the weather on any given day based on how it was on that day for the last 30 years. There are too many variables for the prediction to be useful.
My own opinion is that the best you can do is look at controlled testing of a round. Look for tests that are close to the barrel length of the gun you’re going to be using. If you’ve got something that penetrates around 14” of gelatin and expands to around .600 caliber – I think in general you have a good predictor of effectiveness. I also am not saying that "on shot stop street results" are invalid. If you find a round that penetrates 14" of gelatin and expands to around .600 cal and one shot stop street results are reporting that it is a 90% stopper - well then good.
One big draw of the .40 for law enforcement is its performance against degradeable cover like car windshields, car doors, etc.
Federal's 180 HST round will go through a car windshield and STILL expand to .70 while penetrating 13-14 inches of ballistic gel. That is incredible performance. That is superior performance to what the 9mm will do, and equal or better to what the .45 will do.
http://le.atk.com/general/irl/woundballistics.aspx
I know I will get killed for this, but with the right ammo, the .40 can do everything the .45 can do in terms of penetration and expansion, and almost equals it in energy.
Federal's 180 HST round will go through a car windshield and STILL expand to .70 while penetrating 13-14 inches of ballistic gel. That is incredible performance. That is superior performance to what the 9mm will do, and equal or better to what the .45 will do.
http://le.atk.com/general/irl/woundballistics.aspx
I know I will get killed for this, but with the right ammo, the .40 can do everything the .45 can do in terms of penetration and expansion, and almost equals it in energy.
It's hard to say what will happen in the next 10 years with the 40. Two local agencies here didn't like the 40 and went back to the 9mm for female officers and 45's for males. That being said, the NCHP has adopted the M&P 357 SIG as their standard issue hangun.
I don't think that the 40 will go anywhere soon with the FBI, since it was basically concieved for them. However, the Federal Air Marshalls and the Secret Service have both switched to the 357 SIG as their primary issue caliber so it will be interesting to see what other Federal agencies follow suit.
Will the 40 fade away or be replaced? Depends on preference and budget. If there's one caliber I see that could replacing it, I would say the 357 SIG. All you need to do with a 40 to switch to the 357 SIG is change barrels and in FEW cases change recoil springs.
I don't think that the 40 will go anywhere soon with the FBI, since it was basically concieved for them. However, the Federal Air Marshalls and the Secret Service have both switched to the 357 SIG as their primary issue caliber so it will be interesting to see what other Federal agencies follow suit.
Will the 40 fade away or be replaced? Depends on preference and budget. If there's one caliber I see that could replacing it, I would say the 357 SIG. All you need to do with a 40 to switch to the 357 SIG is change barrels and in FEW cases change recoil springs.
Use of force events(LE shootings); .40S&W...
I agree with Falcon's recent post.
The use of the .40S&W is based a lot on the caliber's great street/police record(s) in LE incidents in or near motor vehicles.
The large CHP aka; CHiPs,
, was one of the first US law enforcement agencies is issue the S&W model 4006 .40 around 1990. I think the CA Highway Patrol still issues S&W .40s today.
I also read a interesting article about a state LE agency(KY I think) that reported about 90% of the documented MOS(member of service) shootings took place during vehicle stops. The sworn LE officers used a .40S&W.
A lot of R&D and T&Es have taken place with the major ammunition/LE supply firms in the last 10-15 years. Bonded rounds and improved JHPs have helped many working cops stay alive.
The .40S&W caliber is not perfect but it still has many supporters.
ClydeFrog
I agree with Falcon's recent post.
The use of the .40S&W is based a lot on the caliber's great street/police record(s) in LE incidents in or near motor vehicles.
The large CHP aka; CHiPs,
, was one of the first US law enforcement agencies is issue the S&W model 4006 .40 around 1990. I think the CA Highway Patrol still issues S&W .40s today.I also read a interesting article about a state LE agency(KY I think) that reported about 90% of the documented MOS(member of service) shootings took place during vehicle stops. The sworn LE officers used a .40S&W.
A lot of R&D and T&Es have taken place with the major ammunition/LE supply firms in the last 10-15 years. Bonded rounds and improved JHPs have helped many working cops stay alive.
The .40S&W caliber is not perfect but it still has many supporters.
ClydeFrog
LockedBreech
New member
Previous posters have nailed it. It's all about barrier penetration.
9x19, .40, and .45 are essentially equal hitting a guy wearing a T-shirt. They're all going to make an impressive hole and probably stop the guy from doing what he was doing. Shootings don't work that way, though. They involve shooting through doors, walls, glass, metal, fabric, and other obstacles.
In a shooting video I watched once, a suspect opened fire on an officer with a Smith Model 29 or some similar big 'ol .44 (very luckily for the officer, the first round had a dud primer and the second massive .44 missed him.) Now that the officer had drawn his weapon, the cowardly S.O.B. floored his SUV and took off. The officer opened up on the SUV with his Glock G22 (.40). While most bullets struck various parts of the car, one penetrated the rear windshield, passed through two rows of rear seats, passed through the driver's seat, and struck the driver's heart, killing him.
Other auto cartridges simply cannot match that barrier-penetrating power in most circumstances save the .357 SIG.
9x19, .40, and .45 are essentially equal hitting a guy wearing a T-shirt. They're all going to make an impressive hole and probably stop the guy from doing what he was doing. Shootings don't work that way, though. They involve shooting through doors, walls, glass, metal, fabric, and other obstacles.
In a shooting video I watched once, a suspect opened fire on an officer with a Smith Model 29 or some similar big 'ol .44 (very luckily for the officer, the first round had a dud primer and the second massive .44 missed him.) Now that the officer had drawn his weapon, the cowardly S.O.B. floored his SUV and took off. The officer opened up on the SUV with his Glock G22 (.40). While most bullets struck various parts of the car, one penetrated the rear windshield, passed through two rows of rear seats, passed through the driver's seat, and struck the driver's heart, killing him.
Other auto cartridges simply cannot match that barrier-penetrating power in most circumstances save the .357 SIG.
Andy Taylor
New member
The .40 will be the primarly LE weapon in the US for at least 2 more decades. Something will eventually replace it. The 5.7, possibly, but not soon.
remember the .38 Special was the main LE round in the US for most of the 20th Century. If you include .357 Magnum with the .38, as it is really just a hot rodded .38, it becomes even more dominate.
remember the .38 Special was the main LE round in the US for most of the 20th Century. If you include .357 Magnum with the .38, as it is really just a hot rodded .38, it becomes even more dominate.
5.7mm FN weapons; US Secret Service...
I, for 1, do not really see the new 5.7mm caliber really going strong in the US any time soon. It could work for a few + reasons(low recoil, high # of rounds, marksmanship, high vel) but it lacks the full house power of a round like the .40, the 10mm, the .357magnum, the .357sig, or the big .45acp.
I saw a recent cable TV doc about the US Secret Service that stated they are now using the P90 full auto(select fire) 5.7 weapons.
These are the same high tech buzz guns used on the popular sci fi TV series Stargate Atlantis.
The USSS still issues the SIG P229R .357sig but no longer has the Uzi SMGs or the improved HK MP5s/MP5Ks.
CF
I, for 1, do not really see the new 5.7mm caliber really going strong in the US any time soon. It could work for a few + reasons(low recoil, high # of rounds, marksmanship, high vel) but it lacks the full house power of a round like the .40, the 10mm, the .357magnum, the .357sig, or the big .45acp.
I saw a recent cable TV doc about the US Secret Service that stated they are now using the P90 full auto(select fire) 5.7 weapons.
These are the same high tech buzz guns used on the popular sci fi TV series Stargate Atlantis.
The USSS still issues the SIG P229R .357sig but no longer has the Uzi SMGs or the improved HK MP5s/MP5Ks.
CF
Father Time
New member
Why? The 5.56 has more power/range, is just as effective against armored enemy's and is already in use.
5.7 is good at what it was designed to do. Defeat body armor at close range. But it is bad at everthing else. It is less effective than other rounds(less effective than both 9mm and .45 acp) when talking about quick stops on enemy's.
gearhounds
New member
.45 acp an inferior round? Heh, heh...hahaha.. sorry, I lost it for a minute there.
Hardly.
Hardly.
OFF TOPIC; US military small arms, 5.7mm, .40 cal sidearms...
This is starting to slide off the basic topic of .40s in US law enforcement but I disagree with the use of the 5.7mm over the older .40 or .45acp calibers.
The recent NRA member magazine had a item about US military small arms & the lack of formal skill training/marksmanship.
The 5.7mm caliber may be an improvement over a few large rifle calibers like the 7.62NATO or 6.8SPC II but the US military lacks the $$$ & resources to field new weapons. Let alone qualify with 5.56mm or 9mmNATO sidearms(M9 & M11).
To me the 5.7 FN weapons will be in use mainly by SWAT, spec ops & maybe a few EP or protective services.
I'd add that ideally, to me, NATO and/or the US armed forces should develop & issue a .40Super type sidearm & field a M4 or MP5 type select fire weapon in a 6.8mm caliber. That would have both power & accurate targeting by most troops of different sizes/skill levels.
ClydeFrog
This is starting to slide off the basic topic of .40s in US law enforcement but I disagree with the use of the 5.7mm over the older .40 or .45acp calibers.
The recent NRA member magazine had a item about US military small arms & the lack of formal skill training/marksmanship.
The 5.7mm caliber may be an improvement over a few large rifle calibers like the 7.62NATO or 6.8SPC II but the US military lacks the $$$ & resources to field new weapons. Let alone qualify with 5.56mm or 9mmNATO sidearms(M9 & M11).
To me the 5.7 FN weapons will be in use mainly by SWAT, spec ops & maybe a few EP or protective services.
I'd add that ideally, to me, NATO and/or the US armed forces should develop & issue a .40Super type sidearm & field a M4 or MP5 type select fire weapon in a 6.8mm caliber. That would have both power & accurate targeting by most troops of different sizes/skill levels.
ClydeFrog