AMMO Act?

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MLeake said:
Gaerek, on the helicopters, while I agree with your dad's take on the downside of armor in Alaska, I expect the reason is that it is easier for the Coast Guard to standardize their helicopter fleet, rather than having one configuration for Alaska and one for Key West.
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I understand that, so does my dad. His issue, however is that you are taking a helicopter that was originally configured and used for rescue operations only, and adding weight/complexity for something the helicopter isn't designed for. They have separate helicopters they use for drug interdiction purposes. From 2000 until 2008 they operated MH-68 Stingray helicopters as part of their Interdiction force. In 2008 they were replaced by converted MH-65 Dolphins. The MH-60 Jayhawk was and has been only operated as a rescue platform. Adding armor and armament only reduces its capability to perform its primary mission. The Jayhawks flown out of Clearwater, FL and Sitka and Kodiak, AK are identical in form and function, even though there is a drug interdiction mission flown in the same areas in FL.

Ok, enough of the derailment. :)
 
It is just chatter at the moment but it appears that the issue is serious enough that the government accountability office has taken an interest in investigating the allegations.

The DHS said they won't buy 1.6 billion rounds. They only intended on buying SEVEN HUNDRED FIFTY MILLION ROUNDS!!!

This could be easily converted to the 75,000 agent estimate as being just 10,000 rounds per agent. A paltry number I know. I go through 10,000 every day whether I need to or not.
 
However, this is a temporary situation, and there's not much point to investing heavily in new machinery, production facilities, and payroll for a bubble that will burst in a few months.
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Is it temporary though? NICS has been running over 1.1 million checks a month consistently since 2008. I keep seeing manufacturers say it is temporary; but two of Black Hills 18-month backlogs (they've had 3 since the early 1990s) were within the last 4 years.

I think as semi-autos and defensive training become more popular, ammo manufacturers are still trapped in the "one box of ammo for deer season" paradigm and are reluctant to invest in new capacity short of just blatantly undeniable evidence of growing permanent demand.
 
Come and take it: The contract is for multiple years and 75,000 is the lowest estimate of armed agents I have seen. Isn't CBP up to something like 15,000 by itself?
 
If there were 750,000 agents it would still be a thousand rounds per agent.

Even if it were two years that means 5,000 rounds per agent per year.

three years about 3,333 rounds per agent per year.

and it goes on and on. :eek:

No way 75,000 agents are training at levels that SWAT teams or special forces are training at.

This is based on the admission that they fully intend or have already fulfilled to purchase at least 750,000,000 rounds.
 
There are at least 120,000 federal LEOs who have arrest powers and are issued firearms--perhaps as many as 150,000 if the numbers have increased since the last reporting interval as much as they had over the previous two intervals.

The overall contract purchase period is 5 years. For the sake of argument, let's use the 750million figure that has been quoted here.

That works out to 1,000 -1,250 rounds per agent per year.

By most accounts, the purchase covers not only training ammunition, but also issue ammunition.

From thallub's post & the link he provided, it's clear that FLETC will be training something like 350,000 LEOs over the 5 year period the contract covers. A decent training class will probably require 1,000 rounds of ammunition.

That comes out to 350 million rounds--almost half of the 750 million figure claimed to be the actual intended purchase amount.

And that's just FLETC--that doesn't count usage by local training centers not run by FLETC and it also doesn't count issue ammunition.

If we assume that each agent is issued 500 rounds per year for carry and personal practice--a pretty reasonable figure--that's another 300 to 375 million over 5 years bringing our estimate to 650 to 725 million.

That's within spitting distance of the 750,000,000 round figure, and it still doesn't take into account usage by local/regional training centers not run by FLETC.
 
Only that we know that most agents who have arrest powers will not train with close to that much ammo for their job a year.

This is where the justification to purchase hypothesis gets shot full of holes. It doesn't add up.

There is a lot of ammo being bought up. A lot more than the DHS needs.
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This part is speculation.

Why are the most hard to find items made by CCI (a good chunk of the 22 ammo and primers) ? CCi is a part of ATK, the incorporated business that received the largest chunk of the outsourcing contracts.
 
I used the training figures from the FLETC data for the training usage number estimate. It was not based on the total number of federal agents.

By the way, FLETC also trains state/local LEOs, not just federal LEOs, so one can't assume that all 70,000 officers trained at FLETC each year are federal LEOs and therefore won't need any additional training ammo for that year.

That also means that at least some of the purchased ammunition will not be used to train federal LEOs at all, but will be used to train state and local LEOs since FLETC training is not limited to federal LEOs.
Only that we know that most agents who have arrest powers will not train with close to that much ammo for their job a year.
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We "know" this how? They may not be actually using it once it's been issued to them, but the 500 rounds issued per agent per year for carry and personal practice that I estimated seems pretty reasonable based on my poking around on the web. I'm not going to try to do exhaustive research, but I did confirm that at least some federal agencies issue 150 rounds per quarter (600 rounds annually per agent) for personal practice and that doesn't count any ammunition used for qualification, for structured training or for formal classes.

Finally, some ammunition, probably around 10% of the total order will likely be held in reserve so that they don't have to shut down or completely stop training if there are temporary shortages or funding issues.
There is a lot of ammo being bought up. A lot more than the DHS needs.
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A relatively minimal amount of research using easily available multi-source information from the internet contradicts this claim. What it comes down to is that as far as I can see, although the numbers initially seem alarming, the purchase amount is commensurate with reasonable usage.

If there's anything that should give one pause (once the facts are clear), it's not how much ammo is being used. That amount is reasonable once one understands how much training DHS is responsible for and how many federal LEOs there are. What's surprising (at least it was to me) is how many federal agents with there are. I was not prepared to find that there were more than 120,000 (possibly as many as 150,000) federal LEOs with arrest powers and issued weapons.

Lest anyone be confused on this issue, I'm not trying to change anyone's mind. It seems clear that there are many people who've decided what they are going to believe about this topic and aren't interested in the facts. I did some research for my own edification and thought that others, who haven't made up their minds yet, might be interested enough in what I posted to do their own research and draw their own conclusions based on the facts that are available and can be confirmed. It sure beats merely speculating.
 
I would be much happier if I knew that there was no funny business going on. The last thing I want to believe about my government is that there is a conspiracy to suppress the ammunition supply.

Nevertheless, any measures on the part of the government that could help ease the shortages without compromising training needs would go a long way toward restoring confidence and goodwill.
 
This conspiracy theory has been making its way around the web for well over one year. It started with the fringe media. Its being kept alive by those who do not know how federal procurement works and those with a vested interest in keeping ammunition prices high (gun stores, online ammo sellers, and gunshow promoters).

IMO: This stuff detracts from the real threats to our Second Amendment rights. While gunowners were wrapped around the axle with conspiracy theories; three states enacted serious gun control: No one saw CO coming. Several other states are poised to pass gun control.

Congressman Lynn Westmoreland of GA has looked into the way DHS buys ammunition:

http://westmoreland.house.gov/index...id=429&highlight=YToxOntpOjA7czozOiJkaHMiO30=

Senator Coburn of OK asked DHS about their ammunition procurement policies:

http://www.coburn.senate.gov/public...tType_id=b4672ca4-3752-49c3-bffc-fd099b51c966
 
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and those with a vested interest in keeping ammunition prices high (gun stores, online ammo sellers, and gunshow promoters).
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Three different gun stores.

Three different ammo purchases.

All three mentioned DHS buying 1.6 million rounds when I made a comment about the ammo shortage.

We are looking at much ado about nothing when it comes to this ammo purchase. It's how the government works, and if John's math is correct (and from what I've seen/researched, it's quite reasonable) this is just a way to buy ammo at the lowest possible price.
 
Generally I try to refrain from posting anything to do with my job but thought i'd point out the few numbers I have access to.

When I was at FLETC for roughly 3 months we trained on firearms 5 days a week for two hours on average typically going through 2 hundred rounds a day per person. Typical class size being 50 trainees.

When we left we got 3 boxes of ammo to fill up our issue magazines and have some practice left over.

We qual 4 times a year shooting all 6 magazines then having to fill those back up. Plus when possible we do like to run some actual drills since all qualifying does is prove you can or can't shoot from a static position at a static target.

Also worth noting that by policy we can't buy and shoot our own practice ammo out of our duty weapons. And I agree with what someone else stated depts that are only using 40 50 rounds a year for qual is just pathetic and in a guns drawn situation i'd much rather have them standing in front of me.

I'm usually the first to cry conspiracy, but I think this is a total non issue and that the people worried about it are looking for problems where there isn't one, much like liberals tend to do. (no offense gents I know we're all real Americans here)

As for the army issue as someone pointed out they have plenty of people who aren't out shooting at [insurgents]. Which brings me to point 2... the army guys who do have small arms tend to run a much higher chance of getting to practice their marksmanship out in the field (if that 173 or whatever it was, incorporates in theatre firefights then ignore this last sentence)

Just thought I'd toss all that out there.
 
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So we get:

300 rounds x 5 times per week x 12 weeks = 18,000 rounds per trainee

Even at half that amount per person, the 750 million rounds doesn't seem that bad anymore.
 
I can only assume that most agents do not fire 12,000 rounds for their weapons training and qualification. As most of the subordinate departments actually train their own agents and do not use FLETC ?and usually allow for 1000 rounds a year for those purposes.

Here is about as in depth of an assessment on the DHS ammo situation as I have found in months. The two things that come to mind are.... one the starting inventory for 2013. Two- the expenditure into the year 2013.

Here are some things to note. First, we are not told hold much of this ammunition has been exhausted from year to year. For instance, you will note that just into FY2013 they claimed a total inventory of nearly 264 million rounds and yet had still budgeted to spend over $37 million in the current fiscal year on ammunition
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The massive spending has been taking place at around the first of the year or possibly earlier if it goes by fiscal years. Sandy Hook happened just before the end of the Calendar year.

Coincidence?

http://dcclothesline.com/2013/03/26/running-the-numbers-on-dhs-ammo-purchases/
 
12k is of course high. There is several days you're not shooting like the first week you're there and don't even have uniforms or web gear, days you don't shoot (safety training, scenarios, etc...) my point was more that while I can't speak for other dept's or agencies, we certainly sent quite a few rounds downrange while going through the basic academy. And I personally from my experience don't see a issue here.
 
Regardless, all that considered, and the fact that the ammo order was for multiple years, not just one, 750,000,000 rounds really doesn't sound that far fetched.

Here's my problem. We have a group of people who see ONE contract for an ammo purchase, and immediately make all sorts of extraordinary claims (Gov't is trying to increase ammo prices, Gov't is stockpiling for inevitable civil unrest). These same people will say things like, "Well, what else could that ammo be for?" as if the burden of proof is on the doubters (who never made an extraordinary claim). Then, you give them reasonable answers, and they try as hard as they can to prove them wrong. This is how conspiracy theories end up working. There is no solid proof (or even anything resembling good evidence) to back up the claim being made. Yet, because this particular piece of VERY circumstantial evidence fits the presupposition of the person making the claim, there simply cannot be another reason for it.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. All we have is a single contract that has an unusually high amount of a particular product being ordered. If you want me, or anyone else to believe there's more to this, more evidence is needed. Now, I'm not saying that these things aren't possible, but that there are simpler, much easier to believe reasons for the ammo purchase.

Now, having said that, I do think an investigation into why that much ammo is being purchased is probably a good thing. Not because I think there's anything malicious going on, but because we're furloughing Federal workers, cancelling White House tours, and putting restrictions on the use of National Parks due to the furlough, yet, we're buying (an estimate) a quarter of a billion dollars worth of ammo for the next several years. It's more of an accountability thing than anything else.

Again, if you can give me evidence of a potential conspiracy, threat, malicious intent, etc, we'll talk. But until then, this contract is not proof of anything.

The massive spending has been taking place at around the first of the year or possibly earlier if it goes by fiscal years. Sandy Hook happened just before the end of the Calendar year.

Coincidence?
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Oh, oh, oh, and an earthquake happened in Turkey in the 90's at the same time the Space Shuttle was flying over! Oh, and that one time HAARP was turned on, and birds in China started falling from the sky, and then Hurricane Katrina happened!

Coincidence?

And to answer your "coincidence?" question:

Yes, most likely. Things that appear to be too strange to be coincidental, usually end up just being a huge coincidence, nothing more than that. Here, check this out, it's an image of a newspaper clipping:

http://i.crackedcdn.com/phpimages/article/8/8/6/32886.jpg?v=1

Reading that, the driver and the passenger must have had something out for these brothers, and made sure they killed both of them in the same way! Or...it's just an amazing coincidence.

Oh, and the Government's Fiscal year starts in October. So FY13 goes from October 2012 to September 2013. So, unless you're implying that Sandy Hook is "an inside job" or I'm misunderstanding what you're writing, the massive spending started a few months prior to Sandy Hook (which, of course, is the catalyst for our current ammo buying panic).
 
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