.40 S&W Prediction
- Thread starter UncleEd
- Start date
A lot of posters seem to be commenting on "the now" of things in prices, sales.
The point I was making in my opening remarks is that the trend with the FBI and police is back toward 9 mm and this will in time generate an even more overwhelming popularity among the general public.
The .40 won't go away but I see it in a decade as a niche round and it will always have its proponents, just not near as many as today.
The .45 ACP will continue as "the other pistol round" of choice because so many great guns have been made for it. And so many people will continue to appreciate them, among the most liked the 1911 (which also has very nicely handled the 9 mm).
Again, I'm talking about a decade from now.
The point I was making in my opening remarks is that the trend with the FBI and police is back toward 9 mm and this will in time generate an even more overwhelming popularity among the general public.
The .40 won't go away but I see it in a decade as a niche round and it will always have its proponents, just not near as many as today.
The .45 ACP will continue as "the other pistol round" of choice because so many great guns have been made for it. And so many people will continue to appreciate them, among the most liked the 1911 (which also has very nicely handled the 9 mm).
Again, I'm talking about a decade from now.
I think there could be some possible merit to a decline in the .40 popularity but only time will tell.
Ever noticed the correlation of the rise in CCW and the more and more compact, lighter weight semis available today? For your average civilian CCW it makes no sense to lug around even a mid sized auto when a super compact light weight 9mm does the same thing. For CCW the trend will always go smaller and lighter.
Ever noticed the correlation of the rise in CCW and the more and more compact, lighter weight semis available today? For your average civilian CCW it makes no sense to lug around even a mid sized auto when a super compact light weight 9mm does the same thing. For CCW the trend will always go smaller and lighter.
I don't see the 40 going anywhere, plenty of LEO use will keep it around. Simply because the FBI switched does not make me think other, offten cash strapped depts are going to change back. Not to mention the offocer dissatisfaction that would result.
I to observed that the 40 was easier to find during the ammo shortage. This mirrors my observation that im civilian hands the 40 is very much behind 9 / 45 im sales. In fact of all my gun friends, when you subtract out the LEO's and family of LEO's i know exactly one person who has a 40 as their primary carry gun.
Similar is reported to me by friends who own gun shops.
Is the 40 a bad round? I do not think so but as a compromose round it may make sense in paper at departments but few individuals chose it.
I to observed that the 40 was easier to find during the ammo shortage. This mirrors my observation that im civilian hands the 40 is very much behind 9 / 45 im sales. In fact of all my gun friends, when you subtract out the LEO's and family of LEO's i know exactly one person who has a 40 as their primary carry gun.
Similar is reported to me by friends who own gun shops.
Is the 40 a bad round? I do not think so but as a compromose round it may make sense in paper at departments but few individuals chose it.
This! This! ROFL!
In all seriousness, if there are so many handguns chambered in 40 caliber how come that ammo was available during the panic? I'm no economist but it would seem to me that if everybody and their brother has a 40 Cal wouldn't that be the hardest ground to find?
Crankgrinder
New member
The trend by police and fbi back to 9mm seems to be only because of very hot 9mm loads with new and improved hollow point bullet designs which may or may not always be found on the shelf. Where im at it is hard to find Winchester ranger T/ speer gold dot/ remingto gold saber much of the time. If you want that stuff on demand you pretty much have to order it. 40 and 45 offers the same performance with what some might call lesser loads, negating the need for premium ammunition which may be hard to find. I got no dog in that race though, ive got pistols in all 3 and roll my own for pretty much everything i shoot, except ar15 ammo but that is not handgun.
I am a 20+ year police officer and, IMO, the 40 was a "solution" to a "problem" that I'm not sure existed, at least in the LE world.
That said, I am fortunate enough to work for an agency that has a fairly open policy on what you carry to work.
On duty - revolver of American manufacture, or otherwise approved by firearms instructors and armorers, with at least a 6 shot capacity, caliber no smaller (or with less energy than) .38 special +p, a barrel length between 3 and 6 inches, and a minimum of 12 extra rounds in speedloaders. Semi auto pistols of reputable manufacture, approved by firearms instructors and armorers, with a minimum magazine capacity (not including chamber) of 6 rounds and of a caliber no smaller than (or less energy than) 9mm parabellum, no larger in bore diameter than standard .45ACP and a minimum of 1spare magazine. Note on semi auto pistols: smaller or larger caliber pistols may be approved after testing and research by firearms instructors and armorers.
Off duty, the same rules apply, except the revolver may be 5 shots and semi auto may use the lower energy .380ACP. The spare ammo requirement is out here too.
That said, I am an instructor, and the 40 S&W round has done NOTHING for LE but cause more problems than it has fixed. Let's face it, lots of police shootings with the .38, 9, .357 and .45 left lots of folks not breathing anymore. With modern bullet construction, a lot of our people are moving away from the 40.
The 40 was the answer to the 10mm recoil problem. The 10mm was the answer to getting the 357 mag ballistics into an auto pistol..... With that in mind, the 40, in LE loads is abusive to the gun and the shooter. People say "it's snappy". It is, and it does nothing but make recoil sensitive shooters not shoot as well. This is worthless abuse, especially since the return you get ballistically is nothing greater than the 9mm +p or the 45ACP. One with more capacity and greatly less recoil, the other with a bit less rounds (depending on the flavor of the gun) and a "pushy" recoil.
I would much rather have all of my officers hit their target with a lighter bullet than not at all. After all, one well placed shot is infinitely better than any number of misses.
I have never liked the round, probably because I have never seen a true "purpose" for the round since it became the "LE Standard". What I have seen is people who rely on others to tell them "what's good" struggle to shoot it well, all the while time believing it's the end all be all. The LE world, nor the general populus were "under served" by what was available when this "miracle caliber" hit the scene.
As far as "falling out of favor", I suspect it will decline in the LE world to a more equal spot with the 9mm. The 45 (my favorite) will lag behind, but remain mainstream. Among non LE folks, the 40 may become more popular, as there will be a lot of surplus LE guns to be bought and shot. That don't mean it will be the favorite, just the most available.....
That said, I am fortunate enough to work for an agency that has a fairly open policy on what you carry to work.
On duty - revolver of American manufacture, or otherwise approved by firearms instructors and armorers, with at least a 6 shot capacity, caliber no smaller (or with less energy than) .38 special +p, a barrel length between 3 and 6 inches, and a minimum of 12 extra rounds in speedloaders. Semi auto pistols of reputable manufacture, approved by firearms instructors and armorers, with a minimum magazine capacity (not including chamber) of 6 rounds and of a caliber no smaller than (or less energy than) 9mm parabellum, no larger in bore diameter than standard .45ACP and a minimum of 1spare magazine. Note on semi auto pistols: smaller or larger caliber pistols may be approved after testing and research by firearms instructors and armorers.
Off duty, the same rules apply, except the revolver may be 5 shots and semi auto may use the lower energy .380ACP. The spare ammo requirement is out here too.
That said, I am an instructor, and the 40 S&W round has done NOTHING for LE but cause more problems than it has fixed. Let's face it, lots of police shootings with the .38, 9, .357 and .45 left lots of folks not breathing anymore. With modern bullet construction, a lot of our people are moving away from the 40.
The 40 was the answer to the 10mm recoil problem. The 10mm was the answer to getting the 357 mag ballistics into an auto pistol..... With that in mind, the 40, in LE loads is abusive to the gun and the shooter. People say "it's snappy". It is, and it does nothing but make recoil sensitive shooters not shoot as well. This is worthless abuse, especially since the return you get ballistically is nothing greater than the 9mm +p or the 45ACP. One with more capacity and greatly less recoil, the other with a bit less rounds (depending on the flavor of the gun) and a "pushy" recoil.
I would much rather have all of my officers hit their target with a lighter bullet than not at all. After all, one well placed shot is infinitely better than any number of misses.
I have never liked the round, probably because I have never seen a true "purpose" for the round since it became the "LE Standard". What I have seen is people who rely on others to tell them "what's good" struggle to shoot it well, all the while time believing it's the end all be all. The LE world, nor the general populus were "under served" by what was available when this "miracle caliber" hit the scene.
As far as "falling out of favor", I suspect it will decline in the LE world to a more equal spot with the 9mm. The 45 (my favorite) will lag behind, but remain mainstream. Among non LE folks, the 40 may become more popular, as there will be a lot of surplus LE guns to be bought and shot. That don't mean it will be the favorite, just the most available.....
testuser79
New member
Institutions will always be looking for the latest, greatest AND the most economical. I stopped caring about what the FBI or Army was shooting YEARS ago.
I've been shooting for at least 15 years, I've had no problem finding and shooting guns in .38 Super, 10mm, etc. No institutions are using these rounds, but thanks to web, I've always been able to get reloading supplies and now I can even find good quality defensive rounds.
I think you'll find that more and more shooters will shoot what they like. They'll find the guns on the used market or producers will do small runs to meet demand. Boutique reloaders will provide quality defensive loads and practice rounds will be reloaded.
Anyway, if I .357, 10mm, .38 Super, .44 special, .45 colt, etc. aren't really dead, then I seriously doubt the .40 S&W will be going anywhere anytime soon.
I've been shooting for at least 15 years, I've had no problem finding and shooting guns in .38 Super, 10mm, etc. No institutions are using these rounds, but thanks to web, I've always been able to get reloading supplies and now I can even find good quality defensive rounds.
I think you'll find that more and more shooters will shoot what they like. They'll find the guns on the used market or producers will do small runs to meet demand. Boutique reloaders will provide quality defensive loads and practice rounds will be reloaded.
Anyway, if I .357, 10mm, .38 Super, .44 special, .45 colt, etc. aren't really dead, then I seriously doubt the .40 S&W will be going anywhere anytime soon.
I don't think the .40 S&W is going away ...but I don't see it growing in popularity either.../ my buddies that own gun shops in my area...say the .40S&W is probably less than 10% of their sales on new or used guns - except to guys that just need one of everything - its rarely a first gun caliber choice, or 2nd or 3rd...
I got sucked into the .40 S&W craze....and I have identical models (Sig 226's in 9mm and .40S&W ), Sig 239's (in 9mm and .40S&W ), Sig X-Fives in 9mm and .40 S&W...and for awhile I had Wilson Combat 1911's in 9mm, .40S&W and .45 acp....
Of all the semi-autos I have ...the .40 S&W's get shot the least...and its about ammo price ( my reloads in 115gr 9mm are at about $ 7 a box / my 180gr .30S&W are at about $ 9 a box..)...and while $ 2 a box isn't that big a deal...in 10 boxes a week its about $1,000 a year...
recoil is more on the .40S&W guns I have ...vs identical guns in 9mm ...and I sold the Wilson 1911 in .40 S&W for a $500 profit to a guy that just had to have it ...and I was only putting a box or two a month thru it .../ I really don't miss that gun ...because I have identical Wilson 1911's in 9mm and .45 acp ( and I won't ever give up either one of them ! ).
-------------
Professional instructors in my area...talk more about shot placement and split times on followup shots...( and they have done so for the last 5 yrs or so )....and the 9mm, just suits more shooters.
In full disclosure - my primary carry is a 5" 1911 in .45 acp - Wilson Combat CQB model ...just makes me feel warm and fuzzy ...over my 5" 1911 in 9mm - another Wilson / and I will occasionally carry the Sig 239 in .40S&W...over a 9mm in any other platform / but I train a lot...and my draw to 1st shot on all 3 calibers is about the same ...( and .45 acp is traditional in my 60+ age group )....but I like shooting 9mm for my training...in the same platform.
I got sucked into the .40 S&W craze....and I have identical models (Sig 226's in 9mm and .40S&W ), Sig 239's (in 9mm and .40S&W ), Sig X-Fives in 9mm and .40 S&W...and for awhile I had Wilson Combat 1911's in 9mm, .40S&W and .45 acp....
Of all the semi-autos I have ...the .40 S&W's get shot the least...and its about ammo price ( my reloads in 115gr 9mm are at about $ 7 a box / my 180gr .30S&W are at about $ 9 a box..)...and while $ 2 a box isn't that big a deal...in 10 boxes a week its about $1,000 a year...
recoil is more on the .40S&W guns I have ...vs identical guns in 9mm ...and I sold the Wilson 1911 in .40 S&W for a $500 profit to a guy that just had to have it ...and I was only putting a box or two a month thru it .../ I really don't miss that gun ...because I have identical Wilson 1911's in 9mm and .45 acp ( and I won't ever give up either one of them ! ).
-------------
Professional instructors in my area...talk more about shot placement and split times on followup shots...( and they have done so for the last 5 yrs or so )....and the 9mm, just suits more shooters.
In full disclosure - my primary carry is a 5" 1911 in .45 acp - Wilson Combat CQB model ...just makes me feel warm and fuzzy ...over my 5" 1911 in 9mm - another Wilson / and I will occasionally carry the Sig 239 in .40S&W...over a 9mm in any other platform / but I train a lot...and my draw to 1st shot on all 3 calibers is about the same ...( and .45 acp is traditional in my 60+ age group )....but I like shooting 9mm for my training...in the same platform.
Mike Irwin
Staff
No the same can't be said for 45. 45 is either the second or third most produced cartridge in the country. .22 is number one. .380 may be lucky to break the top 10.
the .40 is going nowhere it is the best all around platform on the market bar none.
9mm boys; the 9mm hits just as hard as the .40 and hold more ammo and has less recoil... Bull. it will hold more ammo 1-2 round in most guns, Whoopie! and if you load it with 124 grain ammo and push the pressure up to +P+ range it will get up into the ME range of the mild 180grain .40 loads but in guns built on the same frame your recoil is going to be nearly the same at this point. 9mm will get the job done but I despise the round.
The .45 guys; nothing beats the .45 in a 1911! Truthfully damn hard to argue with, my 1911 is the finest gun I own bar none, But I'm not carrying my $1200 Sig and sweating on it every day, banging it around and getting it dirty plus it is freaking heavy. the other thing is my .40 also hits harder than the .45 at normal pressure, now when you push that 230 jhp on up to 1100fps yes it starts to hit with a smack but that recoil gets on up there again too and in equal sized guns the .40 has a 4 to 6 round advantage over the .45 plus a 165 grain JHP at 1200fps hits like a sledgehammer. so yeah the .45 is a heck of a round and in a good 1911 is hard to beat but the .40 gives up nothing to it.
now the .40 S&W, what do you need it to do just ask and it will deliver. Bullet weights from 120-200 grains, muzzle velocity from 850-1500 fps, muzzle energy from about 380-600+ftlbs , weapons take your pick everybody builds a few of them.
The .40 S&W it is not a compromise round at all, it is the best all around pistol cartridge on the market today, haters are going to hate but that does not change how good it is.
9mm boys; the 9mm hits just as hard as the .40 and hold more ammo and has less recoil... Bull. it will hold more ammo 1-2 round in most guns, Whoopie! and if you load it with 124 grain ammo and push the pressure up to +P+ range it will get up into the ME range of the mild 180grain .40 loads but in guns built on the same frame your recoil is going to be nearly the same at this point. 9mm will get the job done but I despise the round.
The .45 guys; nothing beats the .45 in a 1911! Truthfully damn hard to argue with, my 1911 is the finest gun I own bar none, But I'm not carrying my $1200 Sig and sweating on it every day, banging it around and getting it dirty plus it is freaking heavy. the other thing is my .40 also hits harder than the .45 at normal pressure, now when you push that 230 jhp on up to 1100fps yes it starts to hit with a smack but that recoil gets on up there again too and in equal sized guns the .40 has a 4 to 6 round advantage over the .45 plus a 165 grain JHP at 1200fps hits like a sledgehammer. so yeah the .45 is a heck of a round and in a good 1911 is hard to beat but the .40 gives up nothing to it.
now the .40 S&W, what do you need it to do just ask and it will deliver. Bullet weights from 120-200 grains, muzzle velocity from 850-1500 fps, muzzle energy from about 380-600+ftlbs , weapons take your pick everybody builds a few of them.
The .40 S&W it is not a compromise round at all, it is the best all around pistol cartridge on the market today, haters are going to hate but that does not change how good it is.
I'm actually seeing a small decrease in both 40 and 45 gun sales and about the same increase in 9mm as it fills the void. I still think all 3 of those will be the top 3 semi auto rounds for a very long time.
Don't confuse ammo sales, with which guns are actually being used. I know a lot of folks who much prefer to use the 40 for serious threats, but shoot 10X more 9mm ammo just because of price. While I'm fine with 9mm for most uses, I still see some things the 40 does better.
The 9mm may, or may not replace the 40 as the top LE round, but I think it will gain some ground. The 45 has never been a major player in LE use, and if anything will become even less popular as time goes on. It is still popular as a round for recreational/competition shooters and will continue to be.
Don't confuse ammo sales, with which guns are actually being used. I know a lot of folks who much prefer to use the 40 for serious threats, but shoot 10X more 9mm ammo just because of price. While I'm fine with 9mm for most uses, I still see some things the 40 does better.
The 9mm may, or may not replace the 40 as the top LE round, but I think it will gain some ground. The 45 has never been a major player in LE use, and if anything will become even less popular as time goes on. It is still popular as a round for recreational/competition shooters and will continue to be.
Creek Henry
New member
Nope
The last time I qualified 2 years ago. 6 out of 10 of us shot 40s. One had a 45 and out shot us all. I used a 9 and scored perfectly.
The 40 is here to stay.
The last time I qualified 2 years ago. 6 out of 10 of us shot 40s. One had a 45 and out shot us all. I used a 9 and scored perfectly.
The 40 is here to stay.
Crankgrinder
New member
I think most 9mm sales right now are new shooters just getting into shooting a great many of whom are women. The conventional wisdom is new shooters should opt for 9mm for its recoil properties/ammo cost and such so that's what I believe most of them gravitate to. I know i did. At the same time if what they say is true, theres been a bit of a slowdown in the buying of hanguns across the boad in recent months compared to what it was, which was just almost crazy. popularity may come and go from one to the other like a pendulum, but the round itself wont go away completely unless centerfire guns all go the way of black powder systems, or we have to go back to black powder either one.
Evil Monkey
New member
anybody who says 40sw is going away but 45acp is staying is fooling themselves and are emotionally invested in the 45acp. There's nothing economical about the 45acp. It's a low pressure round that uses more material than necessary. If 40sw goes, 45acp gotta go with it. There's no other way.
Onward Allusion
New member
40S&W is not going away any time soon. There are A LOT of pistols chambered in that caliber out there. I really wish someone could dig up the numbers!
The talk is that new and improved bullet designs & powders are making the 9mm similar in performance to the 40S&W. Hogwash. Because, the same principles apply to the 40. Its bullets can also be designed to perform better. The same technologies can be applied to both cartridges.
The talk is that new and improved bullet designs & powders are making the 9mm similar in performance to the 40S&W. Hogwash. Because, the same principles apply to the 40. Its bullets can also be designed to perform better. The same technologies can be applied to both cartridges.
I tend to agree with you. One advantage the 9mm has is less recoil and generally easier to qualify with. LE administrators consider complaints about officers failing to qualify a PITA that causes them to waste their time. Most officers will go through their career without ever getting into a shoot out but they all have to qualify at least annually at a bare minimum. I have had to testify for management at civil service hearings where officers were terminated for failing firearms quals. Using a side arm with heavier recoil than a 9mm just opens the door for a "reasonable accommodation" argument and it is hard to defend requiring a 40 S&W or similar caliber as you can never prove something would be more effective than a 9mm in an actual shooting. You can however likely defend the 9mm against a 32 or 380, etc as a minimum standard cartridge. The other thing the bean counters like is 9mm ammo is generally about the least expensive as well. I think I read somewhere that the qualification issue may well be part of what is motivating the FBI as well.
In my last post I was addressing the LE world. The 40 is here, solidly, but it's not the end all be all. It's a solution in search of a problem, and I'm not a hater. I'm a realist. I've seen more people try to qualify with the miracle caliber because someone told them it was the best. Malarky. The best tool for the job is the one you can do with.
I PERSONALLY don't care for the caliber. It was the answer for those that couldn't control the real 40 (the 10)........again, a solution in search of a non existent problem.
I PERSONALLY don't care for the caliber. It was the answer for those that couldn't control the real 40 (the 10)........again, a solution in search of a non existent problem.
