.40 S&W Prediction

Both the .40 S&W and .357 Sig will be used by some police departments.

Yes we have 9mm and .45, but I have no doubt they will still be popular.

Notice there still are pistols made in .32 ACP and 44/40!

Deaf
 
If this were 1987 . . .

If this were 1987 - after the army switched from the 1911 45 ACP to the Beretta 9mm, this post would be titled "45 ACP Prediction" and we'd be discussing the demise of the 1911.

Well here we are: with more 1911 choices from which to choose than ever before. And the 45 ACP cartridge is still as popular as ever - with dozens of non-1911 models from which to choose; and that's on top of the countless 1911's.

Many also speculated that the 38 Special was destined to the scrap heap of history. Yeah, it's still the most handloaded handgun cartridge.
 
The 40 is here to stay, more power than the 9mm and more capacity than the 45. Two of the same reasons for it's popularity when introduced many moons ago. Funny how many say "they have a 9mm and a 45 so no need for the 40". The inverse of this I'm sure is true for people who favor the 40S&W.
 
9mm and 40sw are here to stay.

It's the 45acp that's dying. It's more expensive exponentially, and I'd say it's because less people are shooting 45acp and so the manufacturers are demanding a premium for supplying it for the more hardcore users.

45acp just takes up space in a pistol mag and has crap ballistics out of a carbine. It has absolutely no use anymore. It will disappear the same way 7.62x25mm tokarev has for the East.
 
It's the 45acp that's dying. It's more expensive exponentially, and I'd say it's because less people are shooting 45acp and so the manufacturers are demanding a premium for supplying it for the more hardcore users.

45acp just takes up space in a pistol mag and has crap ballistics out of a carbine. It has absolutely no use anymore. It will disappear the same way 7.62x25mm tokarev has for the East.
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LOL!!! yeah, okay.
As long as the 1911 exist the 45 ACP will reign supreme. Take a look at how many manufacturers are making 1911's... more than ever!

Jim
 
LOL!!! yeah, okay.
As long as the 1911 exist the 45 ACP will reign supreme. Take a look at how many manufacturers are making 1911's... more than ever!
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Do you see how 380acp costs the same as 45acp even though it uses far less material? That's called........SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

45acp is dropping out of site. It's becoming a tier 2 cartridge. 9mm and 40sw are tier 1.

People may buy lots of 45acp handguns, just like the demand for 380acp pocket pistols, but they don't shoot them as much as their numerous 9mm/40sw pistols and carbines.
 
Cost and accessibility will be huge factors. If you can't afford to shoot it, or find it, it will not stay popular. If there is a run on it next year and prices soar like 22 did, then the market may change.

As it is, I don't see it going away. It's always on the shelf at my local walmart. I'm not biased at all in this, I'm there looking for 9mm and 22lr. :)
 
People may buy lots of 45acp handguns, just like the demand for 380acp pocket pistols, but they don't shoot them as much as their numerous 9mm/40sw pistols and carbines
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I can't speak for where you shoot but the range I shoot at the 45 ACP is just as popular as the 9 or 40.
380 is a defense caliber. 45 ACP is a defense and very popular target caliber.

Jim
 
.45 ain't goin' nowhere!
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No, it won't go anywhere. It'll just cost you 80 cents a round for ball ammo soon.

Its uneven price increase in the past 5 years is the reason I moved away from it to 40sw. The more people stop shooting 45acp, the higher the price-per-round will become.

When three's a crowd, one gotta go. That would be the 45acp.
 
So to steer us back to the question about .40 S&W (thanks 45ACP guys for your impassioned input), I have noted a substantial decline locally in prices for MOST pistols chambered in .40 in the past year or so. Used Glock 22s that were 500 are now 400 whereas 17s are still in the 500 range. YMMV and I don't know if it's an actual trend but most of the guns I've traded/sold lately have been 380, 9, or 45.

I run 40, 357 Sig AND 9 in my G22s - best of 3 world's with Lone Wolf barrels! :)
 
Sevens,

When you say:

"However, .40 S&W is still far ahead of something like .38 Special, and when I started shooting (mid to late 1980s), there was nothing hotter in ammunition, sales, shooting, loading, brass, components and across the board... than .38 Special."

What exactly do you mean? Ammo power? Gun sales?
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I'm judging the popularity of handgun chamberings based on things I see now vs. what I saw then.

Back then, gun magazines were stuffed with articles of guns chambered in .38 (and .357) as much/more than anything. When I went to the local gun store and Black Hills was just starting out with their factory re-man ammo, it was .38 Special that I saw the most piled up, ringing up, and being carried out the door. (a few of them by me) And when I went to my local sportsman's club, it was the PPC matches being held -every- week and every guy on the line was shooting either a worked over K-frame or an L-frame, and ever fellow in the joint had Safariland trays and HBWC .38 Special ammo. On the outdoor range, I found plenty of .38 Special brass. When I was first learning to roll my own, the stacks of Speer bullet boxes were a-plenty, and the selection of .357-.358" slugs was bursting.

None of that is the case today. Today it's 9mm and .45. Today, the lowest priced center fire ammo on the continent is 9mm, it's simple economy of scale. Low cost .38 Special ammo doesn't seem to exist, at least not like it does in 9mm. And when the latest and greatest high tech new defense ammo comes out, it comes out in 9mm. And maybe .45, and .40. And then maybe in .380. And somewhere after... .38 Special, perhaps.

Back in 1988, gun magazines were my "online gun forum." These days, on any gun forum, 9mm and .45 discussions likely dwarf .38 chatter 5 to 1. Back in the 80s, the .38 was king for hobby shooters, at least from my perspective.
I think you'd be absolutely shocked at how many .38 Special revolvers are sold in this country every year...
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Uhhh, whatever you say, boss.

At no point was I ever trying to say what is -HAPPENING-
I'm merely trying the pass along my perspective, how it has seemed to me.

Back in the time frame I'm discussing...
If you were a handgun manufacturer, there's was a good chance that you made a .38 Special. (or a number of them)

Here in 2014, we could rip down a list of not only gun manufacturers...
but a list of big time industry leaders, some of the biggest players in the game, who don't make a .38 Special of any sort.
 
"Do you see how 380acp costs the same as 45acp even though it uses far less material? That's called........SUPPLY AND DEMAND."

You've got it backwards.

The .380 is expensive because not nearly as much of it is made. .32 ACP is the same way. In order to justify making short runs of less popular cartridges, the price needs to be high.



Sevens, back in the early 1990s, at the absolute height of the Wonder9 craze and the resurrection of the .45 with the coming magazine capacity limits, I did an article on compact revolvers for American Rifleman magazine.

People had long been saying that the revolver, especially the low-powered .38 Special, was dying.

Imagine my surprise when the big three -- S&W, Taurus, and Ruger -- all shared some production numbers with me.

All three companies were selling more .38 revolvers then than they had been years. Nearly 20 of the handguns that they were selling were .38s.

The same is pretty much true today. You can't simply look at ammo sales and and say that that translates to the sale of handguns.

The demise of the lowly .38 Special has been greatly exaggerated.
 
The .380 is expensive because not nearly as much of it is made. .32 ACP is the same way. In order to justify making short runs of less popular cartridges, the price needs to be high.
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The same can be said about the 45acp, because the 40sw has been taking sales from it. The manufacturer does not have infinite supply capability. So if more people are purchasing 40sw ammo over 45acp, then 45acp cost is going to sky rocket as less of it is produced for a smaller market.

This is why I believe the 40sw is here to stay. You can't have three major handgun rounds. One eventually will be phased out.
 
Any facts out there?

Does anybody have any recent industry stats on the annual volume of sales in 9, 40, 45 (and perhaps 38+357) ammunition?
 
Lucky Gunner does research annually to estimate where the demand is. As they describe it, "All of what we’re sharing comes from Google Analytics – we’ll admit, it’s not perfect, but it’s definitely good, consistent, and it’s considered the industry standard. So without further ado, let’s dive into 2013 in the ammo world:"

In 2013, they list the top 5 calibers in ammo sales as:

1. 9mm
2. 223 Rem
3. 45 Auto
4. 40 S&W
5. 22 LR

FYI: the 38 Special came in at #10 so it is still very popular. I also think 22 LR would be higher normally except it has been hard to find. I expect it to go up when supply catches up.
 
Lets face it, there will always be crowds screaming "XX round is the best and reigns supreme". Each one of the popular pistol rounds has its place weather it be LEO use, plinking, reloader, prepper, or general public use. The main thing is there are hordes of 9mm, 40S&W, and 45ACP handguns and some carbines. These 3 aren't going anywhere. The ones I am worried about fading away are the wheelguns. Go to almost any gun shop now a days and the sales rep will have some to very little knowledge of the guns. I went to a shop that a guy was trying to find a CCW for his wife and the sales rep kept pushing the various autos. I went to the guy and asked him several realistic questions: Does your wife shoot regularly? How comfortable is she with recoil? And most importantly, does she know how to clear a malfunction if it happens? After that I suggested that he take a hard look at a couple of S&W, Ruger, and Charter Arms snubbies. He ended up with a Charter Arms Cougar. My point is, everyone is recommended/suggesting this or that, who cares as long as it works.
 
.....or some group of FBI agents will get in another gun battle with some crack head and his AK. After 200 9mm thrown at the guy some local cop will shoot him with a 40 from the flank! Then another billion tax dollars will be spent flip-flopping.

On a more serious note, probably the driver was guns for smaller women to really get a hand on. So why isn't anyone making a smaller women's gun platform? Most women holding a Glock or Beretta look ridiculous because their palm is not engaging the back strap enough. This is not a sexist comment. I have 3 daughters that I would love to buy like size 9mms for. I think something Glock 42 sized in 9mm would be close...
 
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