.40 S&W Prediction

U

UncleEd

New member
With the FBI going to, or back to, the 9 mm along with a growing number of police departments, I suspect the .40 S&W will wane in popularity.

We'll be back to 9 mm vs .45 discussions. The .40 after a decade or so will become a hotly defended but greatly diminished round in its sales.
 
My prediction?

Not a chance.

When police forces started moving to rounds other than the 9mm, the 9mm remained immensely popular while the .40 suffered a major shot in the arm.

The .40 is firmly established. I think it's going to thrive.
 
The one thing that made me wonder about the 40 was that it was the easiest of the class semi rounds to find during the panic.

In class, I see more 9s and 45s than 40s. It will be interesting to watch this shake out.
 
I think .40's popularity will decline.
It was always a compromise round, to help bring together fans of capacity and fans of bullet mass.
With modern bullet designs, I don't think there's much difference between 9 and .40, so why give up capacity and low recoil?
Of course, people who have weapons issued to them, will be shooting whatever their bosses want, so the decision isn't always up to the person who's doing the shooting.
 
It is not like the .45 GAP with only a few guns chambered - there are millions of different .40 guns out there. While it's not my favorite caliber, I always have had a few of them in the collection as I like diversity...
 
I don't know, I see a lot more .40 S&W guns sitting around than anything else. And like Glenn said, that was the only "service caliber" I could find during the panic.

I wonder if it will slip to the status of the 10mm and .38 Super of "has been" service calibers, still loved and used by rabid aficionados, but some what out of the mainstream.
 
I’m pretty happy with any of the big three, but have shot more .40S&W over the last few years due to local availability. Now, was there more on the shelf because of popularity or because it is losing popularity that is an interesting question. Either way I’m not too concerned since I plan to be using a new plasma weapon in a few years – 1911 based of course.
 
I believe that it has ALREADY declined over just the last 4-5 years, but I also believe that it's all relative. There was a period when the .40cal was -THE- hot and popular ticket and it distanced 9mm & .45. Those days are now solidly behind us.

However, .40 S&W is still far ahead of something like .38 Special, and when I started shooting (mid to late 1980s), there was nothing hotter in ammunition, sales, shooting, loading, brass, components and across the board... than .38 Special.

We have quite an array of different calibers and flavors and such in the market. I think it's safe to say that .40 S&W has fallen from it's peak already and will likely never reach it's previous heights, but to even half-jokingly mention it in the same kind of popularity arena as .38 Super is not at all accurate, in my opinion.

There's also the beginning of former duty/service weapons hitting the secondary market, a lot of them in .40cal, and that will spark it's popularity over the next decade-plus.
 
There were like three or four Atlanta PD marked S&W M&Ps in .40 S&W (that's the most ampersands I think I've ever used) in the Gander Mountain used case last time I was in there.

One thing I forgot to mention in my previous post was that one thing I think that is affecting the popularity of the .40 S&W is that the concept of "modern bullet design" is starting to affect the gun buying populace.
 
The "little" guns chambered in .40 is what soured many on the caliber. It is snappy and not very fun to shoot in the sub-compacts...
 
"It is not like the .45 GAP with only a few guns chambered - there are millions of different .40 guns out there."

This.

Well, maybe not millions, but damn there are a lot.

It's not going to outstrip the popularity of either the 9mm or the .45.

The .45 has history behind it, and the 9mm has market saturation and relative ammo cheapness behind it.

I've never really had much interest in the .40 strictly from the standpoint that I have multiple 9mms and multiple .45s.
 
"The one thing that made me wonder about the 40 was that it was the easiest of the class semi rounds to find during the panic."

My guess for that is that it's, by far, the newest. It only came out in 1989.

The 9mm and .45 were both available in multiple handguns for many years before that.

I suspect that most .40s are also owned by people who have either a 9mm or a .45 or both, and for whatever reason they shoot those more than the .40.
 
Sevens,

When you say:

"However, .40 S&W is still far ahead of something like .38 Special, and when I started shooting (mid to late 1980s), there was nothing hotter in ammunition, sales, shooting, loading, brass, components and across the board... than .38 Special."

What exactly do you mean? Ammo power? Gun sales?

I think you'd be absolutely shocked at how many .38 Special revolvers are sold in this country every year...
 
I like the .40 S&W. It is my handgun caliber. I like it better than the 9mm and the 45.

It shoots fine in my Glock 22 and 27 for me, but it does kick a lot for the future wifey in the 27.

I do think a lot of big time shooters pick the 9mm due to cheaper ammo and the 45 due to the 1911.


I like the 30-06 too (still not sure why people hate on it so much)
 
I'm a 10mm guy (relax!, I'm not going there), and I don't own a 40 S&W.

But I was at my LGS yesterday and they had a whole palate full of WWB 40 S&W. And they're going to have no trouble selling it.

It's too practical. Too balanced. And makes a bigger hole than 9mm. 40 cal is here to stay.
 
About 10 years ago I got my first 40 and have acquired 3 more. The main reason going to the 40 was the 9 MM ammo did not hold up the way the 40 and 45 does. Now that there is "NEW" 9 MM on the market I have gotten a couple 9 MMs to add to the 40s and 45s.

I elect to carry the 40 in the car and sometimes as a concealed weapon. The 9 MMs I have, have not been used as a carry gun yet. They are on full 1911 platforms. I have bought and sold a couple 9 MM compacts but have not found one that I like.

Do I think the 40s are going away, NO but I think that the 9s are making a come back just because there are better built 9 MM bullets out there now.
 
never understood why the .357 sig didn't catch on more.

125 grain @ 1385 FPS Winchester Ranger T tested with .75'' expansion and 11.5'' penetration in ballistics gel. That's some serious expansion from a .355-.356 cal bullet.

Speer Gold Dot JHP 125 gr (8.1 g) 1,385 ft/s (422.1 m/s) 532 ft·lbf (721.3 J) 0.68 in (17.3 mm) 16.5 in (419.1 mm)

Compare that to the coveted .45 acp, it's doesn't seem as puny as some would imply.

Winchester Ranger SXT 15 g (230 gr) 270 m/s (900 ft/s) 561 J (414 ft·lb)
20 mm (0.78 in) expansion
330 mm (13 in) penetration

Federal HydraShok JHP 15 g (230 gr) 260 m/s (850 ft/s) 500 J (369 ft·lb)
20 mm (0.78 in) expansion
300 mm (12.0 in) penetration

Winchester Silvertip JHP 12.0 g (185 gr) 300 m/s (1,000 ft/s) 557 J (411 ft·lb) 20 mm (0.79 in) expansion
300 mm (12.0 in) penetration

Sure it's got more recoil than a 9x19 loaded to standard pressure, but it's also tends to (in most cases) generate less recoil than .45ACP and .40S&W
 
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