.40 cal on the way out?

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The .40's market share is declining, but it's quite the stretch to think that it's "on it's way out." It will likely remain a popular caliber for a long time, even if not to the same degree as at its peak.

Nathan said:
You understand wrong... Sure there is a flurry of 9mm buying now, but 40 is the premier round right now.
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I'm very curious as to your basis for this claim. Pistols in 9mm have easily outsold pistols in .40 and .45 combined for the last six years. In every year on easily accessible record (since 1998), 9mm pistols have outsold both calibers considered individually. The continued growth in the 9mm's leading market share among service pistol calibers is a trend well over a decade in the making.

Nathan said:
9mm holds like 2 more, but is not neerly as effective.
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As all of the latest data shows, this is simply false. We're not in the 1990s anymore. The 9mm has made great strides in effectiveness thanks to advances in bullet technology and is now essentially on par with the other major service calibers in effectiveness. Time to challenge your old ideas with new data.

LockedBreech said:
For law enforcement, the .40 still enjoys a good reputation, well-earned, for being a barrier smasher, especially the 180-grain loads. When you're pulling over cars all night made out of auto glass, steel, aluminum, and reinforced plastics and fiberglass, that's a serious consideration.
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This is an important point. Even if some law enforcement agencies are moving to 9mm, I have a hard time seeing the .40 vanish there. Its prominence in law enforcement alone would be enough to ensure that many private citizens continue to show interest in the cartridge.
 
Its not like all the other calibers were static for 20 years while the 9mm advanced alone.
Those same advancements also were applied to the 40 and 45 as well as others so its still the same sliding scale.

As all of the latest data shows, this is simply false. We're not in the 1990s anymore. The 9mm has made great strides in effectiveness thanks to advances in bullet technology and is now essentially on par with the other major service calibers in effectiveness. Time to challenge your old ideas with new data.
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Its not like all the other calibers were static for 20 years while the 9mm advanced alone.
Those same advancements also were applied to the 40 and 45 as well as others so its still the same sliding scale.
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Look up "diminishing returns."

Or try to explain away the data showing that the best 9mm rounds are now similar in effectiveness to the best rounds in the other service pistol calibers, whereas in the past 9mm was not.
 
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In my opinion, the .40 S&W is here to stay. As a modern round, it can be loaded to higher pressures than either the 9mm or the .45 acp since all guns will be built to tolerate those specs. The 9mm and .45 acp are older rounds and cannot be bumped up due to the liability of blowing up older guns not built to withstand higher pressures.

As already mentioned, there is only a small sacrifice in capacity with the 9mm and it has higher kinetic energy compared to the .45 acp. There are those who are going to argue that a .40 S&W can expand to .45 inches but the .45 acp will never be less than .45 inches. Those same people cannot then argue that modern 9mm ammo is better since it may not expand to .45 inches.

Personally like the .40 S&W though I find it to be a bit snappy in small carry guns. It shoots great out of my Sig P229 and my STI Edge.
 
There is no way 40 will outlive 45. I hope you are joking. You know what caliber the most popular automatic pistol in America is right?
 
9mm holds like 2 more, but is not neerly as effective.
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I don't typically get into caliber war threads, but this is completely untrue.

Real-world results have shown time and again that the effects of modern ammunition in the more common pistol calibers (9mm, .40SW, and .45ACP) on the human body are practically the same.

Basically, they all suck compared to rifle rounds.
 
It would be a shame if the .40 left the field anytime soon. It is more powerful than the 9x19mm and almost any platform that can be chambered in 9x19mm can also be chambered for the .40 S&W.

Is it THE BEST defensive pistol cartridge? No, that title varies by situation. That said, I can think of no application in which the 9x19 is used that the .40 S&W cannot do a little to a whole lot better (which probably means the .40 S&W IS doomed, and the 9x19 will STILL be manufactured in the centuries when STAR TREK was supposed to have transpired).

BUT, the fact remains that the .40 S&W is a GOOD ENOUGH defensive caliber in a BROAD ENOUGH spectrum of situations that it should be eclipsing the 9x19 in the civilian/LEO markets by now, but this thread gives me the impression that it's not. It's a pity. Lesser inventions seem to have taken off with much greater success.

I'd rather have an 11-round .40 S&W in a fight, than an 11-round .357 SiG, a 16-round 9x19, 2 7-round .357 revolvers, or 3 5-round .327 Federal revolvers.
 
Oh goodie, another quasi caliber war thread... (aka, waste of time)

No, the 40 isnt going anywhere. It may fall in and out of favor with LEO's, but It'll always be around.
I figure in 50 years it'll be still right there between the 9mm and 45... and we'll still be bickering about which is best.

I like the 40 and have sold off all 9mm and 45's. Although I'm sure to add in another nice 1911 someday soon, maybe a single stack 9mm Glock if they ever make it, and make it small.

40 is a good compromise as far as I'm concerned... good capacity with near 45 performance in a 9mm-sized pistol (which is why its snappy!).
 
I expect the .40 will lose a little of the market share it currently holds, but then stabilize. The FBI moving to 9mm will have some additional carryover effects in the wider LEO community and the civilian market.

While I don't own a .40 cal pistol, I expect the round will remain a widely popular caliber into the foreseeable future. There's plenty of room between 9mm and .45 for the .40 to be the Goldilocks choice between high capacity and high bullet mass. It's a good caliber, and commands too much market- and mind-share to go away.

Now .357 Sig, on the other hand...
<ducks>
 
I was told that the .40 is snappy, so I thought finely something better then a slingshot. So I bought 3 Sigs.
I'm kind of disappointed, I think they are just whippersnappers. Anyhow, they stay.
Predicting the future is for the hmmmm...not going to write that here.:D
 
I would recommend that anyone considering spending some quality time at the range would be well advised to get a 9 mm instead of a .40 S&W.
 
I would recommend that anyone considering spending some quality time at the range would be well advised to get a 9 mm instead of a .40 S&W.
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I second that. They are good for plinking. I have a Beretta 92 FS. And a CZ 75 BD. And a CZ 82...hmmm that's 9.2 mm.(Makarov)
 
It'll outlive, and outsell 45 ACP, and I don't see it going anywhere either.
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While I don't necessarily agree with the above statement, its not entirely implausible. I think it would be interesting to see numbers comparing the two in terms of sales, number of firearms chambered in the two calibers and how many LEO type agencies are using one compared to the other. Projecting those numbers over time might give us an idea about which could potentially out live and out sell the other.
 
It would be a shame if the .40 left the field anytime soon. It is more powerful than the 9x19mm and almost any platform that can be chambered in 9x19mm can also be chambered for the .40 S&W.

Is it THE BEST defensive pistol cartridge? No, that title varies by situation. That said, I can think of no application in which the 9x19 is used that the .40 S&W cannot do a little to a whole lot better (which probably means the .40 S&W IS doomed, and the 9x19 will STILL be manufactured in the centuries when STAR TREK was supposed to have transpired).

BUT, the fact remains that the .40 S&W is a GOOD ENOUGH defensive caliber in a BROAD ENOUGH spectrum of situations that it should be eclipsing the 9x19 in the civilian/LEO markets by now, but this thread gives me the impression that it's not. It's a pity. Lesser inventions seem to have taken off with much greater success.

I'd rather have an 11-round .40 S&W in a fight, than an 11-round .357 SiG, a 16-round 9x19, 2 7-round .357 revolvers, or 3 5-round .327 Federal revolvers.
 
It's not 40 that's leaving, it's 45acp. It's becoming a boutique round.

I don't see it going away, even almost, but outsell and outlive the .45 ACP? No, I don't see it doing that.
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You better believe it. 45acp is becoming like 7.62 tokarev.

Over 5 years ago, the average difference in price per round between 40sw and 45acp was about 6 cents. Today it's like 11 cents. I suppose less people are buying 45acp compared to 9mm and 40sw, causing the prices to soar disproportionately.

There is no way 40 will outlive 45. I hope you are joking. You know what caliber the most popular automatic pistol in America is right?
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9mm
 
In micro (pocket) guns....... It's not my choice

But.... It just seems to fit the P229 I adore

I also have the Shield in 40

On the Shield I have to focus to get the second quick round off accurately




But..........

For the OP... The 9mm ISNT the exact same performance as the 40

The 9 has improved greatly, but the 40 still hits 10-25% harder with a larger wound channel.........

The 40 does give better penetration through obstacles than the 9


There isn't an enormous difference... The 9 has some great JHP rounds that are great for defense. I also like the easier "second shot" with the 9.....

I still carry 40. I reload for it, and the cost is nearly the same as 9 (I believe it's 02 cents dif)

The people that carry the 40 and look down on the 9 as subpar and insufficient are plain wrong....

But

People keep repeating the 9 is EQUAL to 40 stuff enough ... They start believing it.
 
Funny how,

The 9mm is now the equal of 40S&W but, the 40S&W is not the equal of the 45ACP. Kinda like the selective hearing my wife claims I have!
 
There's no such thing as an unbiased and neutral caliber thread on this form.:D

You could state a absolute truth like "4 is a larger number than 2" and there would be those arguing that modern science has altered physics and made made 2 as large as 4 so they are now equal. :D.

People hear and believe what they want to support their own personal choices.
 
I woundnt see how it would be on the way out ? Its the perfect cal if you ask me, it carrys more rds than a .45 and has more power than a 9mm. I have 2 of the same guns in .40 and 9mm. The 9mm only have 1 extra rd on the .40 so thats not a big upper hand when its less powerful. The .45 is a big , slow and old technology , it looks impressive but on paper the .40 nearly beats it in every section.
 
The market determines whether it stays or goes. the .40 has swept the market faster than any other non-military cartridge than i know of. The market is still climbing for it. There area lot more people with 9's who'd rather have a .40, than people with 40's who'd rather have 9's. Individual police depts are free to do dumb things for the wrong reasons, and there are always some who do. If they are switching back to 9's, its probably more about using something "less lethal" than it is about recoil.
 
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