Is the AR15 going to fade from ownership?
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Aguila Blanca
Staff
This is why we really REALLY need to have Trump get to name at least one more Supreme Court justice -- and hope that his next choice (if he gets one) will be more solidly pro-2A than Kavanaugh.
POTM..Post of the Morning
I think the demand for and supply of AR-15 style rifles will continue to drop regardless of what the government does. I think stores are dropping or decreasing the inventory of them because of a drop in demand and the profit margin is low due to price drops because of an oversupply of product.
Most people bought or built the rifles because they wanted them while some of us bought them to find out why they are so popular and others bought them because they wanted to buy something before they were outlawed. Most people who wanted them have bought one or several and that has caused the demand to fall.
I bought mine a few years ago and since I have no desire to build or customize my guns, it's just another semi-automatic rifle to me. Even though it is powerful and accurate, I can't deer hunt with in where I live. Unless I want to hunt coyotes with it, I don't have a use for it other than target shooting. I have several other 22 caliber rifles (LR and Magnum) I shoot a lot because they are cheap to shoot and I have a 9MM PCC that I shoot occasionally.
Most people bought or built the rifles because they wanted them while some of us bought them to find out why they are so popular and others bought them because they wanted to buy something before they were outlawed. Most people who wanted them have bought one or several and that has caused the demand to fall.
I bought mine a few years ago and since I have no desire to build or customize my guns, it's just another semi-automatic rifle to me. Even though it is powerful and accurate, I can't deer hunt with in where I live. Unless I want to hunt coyotes with it, I don't have a use for it other than target shooting. I have several other 22 caliber rifles (LR and Magnum) I shoot a lot because they are cheap to shoot and I have a 9MM PCC that I shoot occasionally.
The entities that want gun control don’t care about black markets. They want to limit the ability of the law abiding citizens to own and obtain firearms.
They aren’t stopping at enhanced background checks, limiting of features, firearms taxes, ammo taxes, waiting periods, training, psychology exams, and those sort of things. We’ve gone past “No one is coming for your guns” and “common sense regulations” and we’ve arrived at no guns for citizens as the goal.
It may take anywhere from 10-200 years to make us law abiding people gun free, but it will happen.
In the short term, I think that the market is saturated at the moment and there will be small waves of sales based on political climate. The AR will remain popular until the next basic military weapon is firmly established and civilian clones hit the market.
There could be a complete reversal and the restrictive regions could turn more gun friendly, but I doubt it. Many states are in the golden age of gun ownership and will remain gun friendly in the future.
What is probably the most realistic scenario is the country will become more divided and there will be pockets of even deeper restrictions and large areas of gun friendly states.
Politicians thrive in a divided environment; it gets them votes, donations and makes them fabulously wealthy on a public servants salary.
Many of the hot-button issues such as gun control and gun rights, for example, could be solved in short time, but then will go the political bread and butter that benifits the political actors.
The problem with gun rights issues is that I don’t see many politicians go beyond saying “I support the second amendment” after that there’s no action.
The people could simply loose interest in the AR, many will stay tucked away in closets and gun cabinets because the owner lost interest and they don’t want to have it seen in public because of the negative stigma that’s being given them.
I hope that all of these panic-purchases hit the market soon at incredibly low prices. A lot of them were bought by people that probably didn’t have much interest in them in the first place. Others were hoping to turn a profit in some future panic.
No matter how the future goes, either doom and gloom as I sometimes state or a continuing of the current state of affairs... there will be ARs circulating for quite some time, but many will never see the light of day again until the owner’s estate has to liquidate.
They aren’t stopping at enhanced background checks, limiting of features, firearms taxes, ammo taxes, waiting periods, training, psychology exams, and those sort of things. We’ve gone past “No one is coming for your guns” and “common sense regulations” and we’ve arrived at no guns for citizens as the goal.
It may take anywhere from 10-200 years to make us law abiding people gun free, but it will happen.
In the short term, I think that the market is saturated at the moment and there will be small waves of sales based on political climate. The AR will remain popular until the next basic military weapon is firmly established and civilian clones hit the market.
There could be a complete reversal and the restrictive regions could turn more gun friendly, but I doubt it. Many states are in the golden age of gun ownership and will remain gun friendly in the future.
What is probably the most realistic scenario is the country will become more divided and there will be pockets of even deeper restrictions and large areas of gun friendly states.
Politicians thrive in a divided environment; it gets them votes, donations and makes them fabulously wealthy on a public servants salary.
Many of the hot-button issues such as gun control and gun rights, for example, could be solved in short time, but then will go the political bread and butter that benifits the political actors.
The problem with gun rights issues is that I don’t see many politicians go beyond saying “I support the second amendment” after that there’s no action.
The people could simply loose interest in the AR, many will stay tucked away in closets and gun cabinets because the owner lost interest and they don’t want to have it seen in public because of the negative stigma that’s being given them.
I hope that all of these panic-purchases hit the market soon at incredibly low prices. A lot of them were bought by people that probably didn’t have much interest in them in the first place. Others were hoping to turn a profit in some future panic.
No matter how the future goes, either doom and gloom as I sometimes state or a continuing of the current state of affairs... there will be ARs circulating for quite some time, but many will never see the light of day again until the owner’s estate has to liquidate.
I understand why rickyrick said what he did but here is why I disagree. All those quotes are from, lets call them, main stream media. Those are mostly based in DC or New York or LA and they certainly have an agenda. But they don't necessarily speak for the rest of America. The obvious example is the 2016 election. Just because they have the loudest voice doesn't mean they are right or will win. I love to watch the networks election predictions from 2016 on youtube. Really brings a smile to my face. Could he be right in 30 to 50 years, maybe, but I won't be here to see it.
Aguila Blanca
Staff
I think there's a big difference between reduced demand on the new gun market due to over-supply and market saturation, versus seeing the AR-15 "fade from memory." There are millions of AR-15s in private ownership throughout the U.S. I don't know what percentage of AR owners own multiple rifles, but I'm sure it's a lot. I seem to always encounter posts by existing AR-15 owners discussing their "next build." The AR-15 is like the Erector Set of firearms -- people buy kits and parts and have a lot of fun making up unique configurations that would not be supportable as production firearms in the mass market.osbornk said:
So I don't see reduced demand at the retail level as being indicative that the AR-15 in in any danger of "fading from memory." And, as I think I already commented, how much has the market shifted away from people buying completed firearms to people making their own? Factor in numbers (who knows how many) of people making their own receivers, and the statistics begin to be meaningless.
I could see Congress someday passing a law making them DD's, or a new category of NFA that will require registration. That, in and of itself, will make a huge percentage of them illegal, because people won't register them. It would probably happen when the Dems get control of the Senate, House and Presidency.
They did this to the USAS-12. Some people, like me, registered theirs. Many did not, thus you see lots of USAS-12 parts and parts sets around.
They did this to the USAS-12. Some people, like me, registered theirs. Many did not, thus you see lots of USAS-12 parts and parts sets around.
Well, this should help them transition, 
http://www.blackgunswood.com/products.html
The stocks are nice.
The AR platform is easily configured, that is the big appeal
http://www.blackgunswood.com/products.html
The stocks are nice.
The AR platform is easily configured, that is the big appeal
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Building on what I wrote in the OP:
I went to Fleet Farm yesterday to see what they were selling in the AR15 line-up since they no longer advertise them on their website. The S&W Mp15 and the Ruger 556 used to be their best deals, with the S&W at $599 and the Ruger at $580. Well, they didn't have the S&W, but the Ruger was there for $639.
It seems that they aren't getting cheaper where I live. Prices only go up when the supply either goes down, or is being threatened.
I went to Fleet Farm yesterday to see what they were selling in the AR15 line-up since they no longer advertise them on their website. The S&W Mp15 and the Ruger 556 used to be their best deals, with the S&W at $599 and the Ruger at $580. Well, they didn't have the S&W, but the Ruger was there for $639.
It seems that they aren't getting cheaper where I live. Prices only go up when the supply either goes down, or is being threatened.
That is my view as well. In general the anti- gun states will continue to be so, perhaps with a few other states becoming anti-gun with refugees from other states voting for the same anti-freedom nonsense in their new state. I think the final blows to the 2nd Amendment/ gun rights will be from the Federal level with stuff like "assault weapons" bans and judicial subversion. It's sad and hopefully I'm dead wrong.
The problem is “guns” are the equalizer of the poor to ward off the politicians. Traditionally, the Democrats should be pro-gun as the working class party.
The Republicans clearly want rifle control, but are afraid to lose votes. This is our catch 22. Look at Trump going all anti on us.
The NRA is crumbling. They can ward off a big push now.
A pro-gun Democrat or independent could sweep the election....those millions of AR’s sold, didn’t buy themselves!
What we really need is a strong pro gun middle class bolstering party. Some thought that was Trump! You were wrong. Change and move on. Wow! It gets quiet when you say 3rd party. Think about it. Republicans want comfort for the 2%’rs. That mean getting them the freedom to ruin people’s lives without threat of accountability.
The Democrats want control to drive the progressive agenda. Last thing they want is armed opposition. Our politicians should lead and welcome citizen owned arms.
Or the demand goes up..
Interesting if prices are going up.
I haven’t looked at any here in Washington since we passed 1639.
There won’t be any revolt against gun control, it’s already proven that most gun owners will simply obey the law in the face of new restrictions. I understand that there are some issues that need clarification from officials out there, but laws that are understood are generally followed.
The gun control crowd has learned a lot from us. They learned that the AR15 is a semiautomatic rifle and operates just like any other semiautomatic rifle... they’ve learned that when they restrict the scary looking features on the rifles we simply find a work around.
They have called our bluff and are going after all semiautomatic weapons now, not just the scary looking ARs.
I haven’t looked at any here in Washington since we passed 1639.
There won’t be any revolt against gun control, it’s already proven that most gun owners will simply obey the law in the face of new restrictions. I understand that there are some issues that need clarification from officials out there, but laws that are understood are generally followed.
The gun control crowd has learned a lot from us. They learned that the AR15 is a semiautomatic rifle and operates just like any other semiautomatic rifle... they’ve learned that when they restrict the scary looking features on the rifles we simply find a work around.
They have called our bluff and are going after all semiautomatic weapons now, not just the scary looking ARs.