Y2K: Warning or Paranoia?

I grew up worrying about nukes as well, but that's not quite the same.

With nukes, you had a very few people controlling things. With Y2K, *everyone* is directly involved, and like the saying goes, "Never underestimate the stupidity of people in large groups." They do things like burn cities, elect Clinton, et c.

I'm as prepared for trouble as I can be. I don't really care for the idea of being under curfew because some people go off their chumps, but I can put up with it temporarily. Unfortunately, what I've seen of the grubmint's efforts at riot control to date isn't exactly confidence-inspiring (Kent State and the Rodney Riots come to mind here).

167 days and counting...

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You can't get something for nothing,
You can't have freedom for free.
--Neil Peart
 
One thing that all "experts" agree on concerning Y2K, no one is sure about the impact Y2K may have. Prudence suggest some sort of precautionary measures. It will not take much to get people in panic mode.
 
As far as the federal reserve making billions of extra dollars to flood the banks with. That is true, but here's the problem.
If people put that money under their mattresses, it essensenially goes from bank to "Bank" which is ok.
If not, and people start spending it, we will have an inflation rate like none we have ever seen. You may be paying $3000 for a loaf of bread. And sadly, again when those who dont have $3000 for a loaf of bread for their family they will be motivated to commit crimes to feed themselves and family.
That flooding the banks with extra billions to prevent riots when people cant get their money leads to a longer lasting potential for disaster.

No easy way around this..not even pretending it's not a problem.

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Same Shot, Different Day
 
Well, SameShot, then the government could step in and "solve" the problem for us like they did during the Great Depression. Yup, yup, yup!! ;)

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John/az

"They come, they eat, they leave...
"They come, they eat, they leave...NOT!!

Bill Clinton (aka: Hopper) Al Gore (aka: Molt) Janet Reno (aka: Thumper)

Ants UNITE!


[This message has been edited by John/az2 (edited July 15, 1999).]
 
I've said it before, the real results of Y2K will be somewhere between nothing and the end of the world. Prepare occurding to your own needs.

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Peace...
Keith

If the 2nd is antiquated, what will happen to the rest.
"the right to keep and bear arms."
 
i agree that parts of the country are used to stress and have weathered events in the past fine.
I also know that resources from one part of the country are moved down to help out when problems arise

what if everyone is fubar?

what if you can not find out if your kids are all right in there home 300 miles away?

what if the tvs off, the radios off, the phone is off, and when you drive out to the highway there is a road block and you see smoke on the horizon downtown?

we are so conditioned to have total access to data all the time

we are living on the edge of our comprehension

we live in interesting times

dZ
 
OK, Art Eatman, here is what I mean by minor. Files getting out of order on your computer. Bills late from your doctor. Yes, maybe a few ATMs fail or a few cities have traffic light glitches. Most of the places which use computers are aware of the problems and have fixed them. (I helped with some.)

Darnit, airplanes are not going to fall out of the sky. Electrical turbines are not going to come to a screeching halt. Cars are not going to stop. The world is not going to stop spinning. The sun will not fail to rise. Your house will not fall down. Army ants the size of tanks will not be loosed on the world. Anything else you folks can think of?

Ah, those embedded chips. Very few have any date capability at all (I programmed plenty of them) and those that do are known and have been/are being corrected.

I do plan to have some spare cash over the New Years holiday. I am not hoarding gold (I can't think of anything more useless in a disaster); I am not hoarding guns and ammunition - well, no more than normal; I am not buying tons of MREs.

There is a point where some degree of caution becomes raving paranoia, and I think the Y2K business passed that point long ago.

A world without computers? Hell, I remember a world without television. We somehow survived.

Jim
 
Being a self-acclaimed car nut, I've taken the time to research the effects of y2k on auto-related matters. I can't recall what magazine I read it in, but the premise of the article is that y2k can only possibly effect those computer systems that run on a schedule based on the date/time. Newer cars are dependant upon computers for operation, but those computers operate on a schedule of crankshaft/piston position, etc. as opposed to the date and time. Same as gas station pumps. The most complex computer in a gas pump is the one that reads your credit card. I think there is room for concern in some aspects of it, but by and large, the world is not going to shut down at 12:00 am 1/1/00. Actually, the date that frightens me more is coming up soon. September 9, 1999. Reason being that when a computer is fed an unspecified date, it commonly lists it as 9/9/99. Who knows what the heck's gonna happen when we hit that one?
 
I guess I'll keep on saying this....

Y2K disaster is possible and has LITTLE or NOTHING to do with computer failures.

Sure, that's how the fanfare got started, but it has evolved away from that, and into a self-fulfilling event driven by media (including internet) hype.

I'm not a nuzto trying to get attention by proclaiming that the sky is falling. I've just witnessed that (as another member said), "it doesnt take much for people to ass out".

I still believe that very little will happen, but I do see the potential, and people proving that embedded chips in nuclear warheads or communications satilites willl not fail are really adressing a problem that is no longer the issue.
Media hype, Stress, greed, anger, alcohol, paranoia, and the biggest New Year's Eve party of all time all mixed together is the problem.

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Same Shot, Different Day
 
I agree that a technical failure is not the problem, the people are. Geared Up made an interesting point. There are people out there spending a fortune on weapons, ammo, MREs, bottled water, etc. They are totally convinced that Y2K is the end of civilization as we know it. I really don't want to be anywhere near these folks when the whole thing fizzels. They could go right off the deep end.

Personally, I'd be tickeled to death if all our wonderful technology was to drop dead. It would be a great wake-up call to all those who think technology can solve any problem. It would teach folks to use their brains again in spite of themselves. It would force the sheeple to take care of themselves and be independent. But, alas, I seriously doubt it will happen.
 
We try to have enough food/water/survival goods on hand for 2-3 months as their is always the possibility of Flood, Tornado, Blizzard, Ice storm ect ect ect...... It's not a far feched thing to plan ahead just in case your life is turned upside down by a natural disaster. Just watch the news and see how long it takes power and other public utilities to be restored after a natural disaster.

I can not immagine anybody on this forum wanting or expecting big brother to take care of them or their family if anything bad does happen for Y2K. Just plan for 2-3 months of natural disaster and loss of infrastructure and you should be fine.

Besides what if you live in a city and due to any of the above problems the mail stops bring in the unemployment, ADC, Wealfare or any other goverment checks for a week or more. Bet you will be having all kinds of social problems.
 
If there is a major disruption at Y2K, I don't look for the government to do much about it. They won't be able to. You guys who are worried about martial law and gun confiscation should think about a few fact here:

1. All of the US military and police forces combined are not enough to physically control a large area. What did it take 40,000 or so LEOs and troops, federal and NG to put down the 93 LA riots? Go to the SOLDIERS (official Army magazine website) and look in the Army Almanac and see how many troops we have and where they are located. There are not many, less then a million, including Guard and Reserve. Off that number you can subtract about 10% who would not be deployable for various reasons (hospitalization, confinement, pending separation etc.). Now look at how many (or few) are actually in combat arms postions. Many of the soldiers we do have are in logistics units, headquarters etc.

2. There are no large stockpiles of fuel, power generation equipment, food or water. The Army gets this stuff from the same place you do, the civilian economy. If the distribution network is broken, how will the Army get food, fuel and other necessities?

3. Another consideration is that the majority of the force is married. thia is enough of a readiness concern that the Commandant of the Marine Corps considered a policy forbidding Marines below the rank of SGT E5 from getting married without permission. Commanders will be hard pressed to provide services to the large dependent population around the posts. Will the soldiers leave the wife and kids in uncertain circumstances to either aid a hard pressed area or seize it?

I think if Y2K is bad we'll find out just how poorly our governemnt is prepared. The system will have too much trouble supporting itself, to be either a help or a hinderence to the general population.
Jeff
 
I really enjoyed Geared Up!'s first post. Moats? Poisonous creatures under floorboards? Wow! Makes the rest of us look like pikers, eh? ;)

Actually, I'm curious as to what will happen with the economy. Instead of inflation because folks have drawn out lots of cash, I wonder if the economy will fall pretty flat in the 1st quarter of 2000. If very many people prepare, there will be a lot of folks eating stored beans and rice in that first quarter, problems or no problems. In essence, we may be seeing a pull-forward in business during 1999 as people do a bit of stocking up. Food, water, firearms, ammunition, beanie babies ...
 
$hit happens.
Y2K will be $hit to the power of Y times 2 times K.
Every little thing, however minor is going to be blamed on Y2K. What I see at work,being in the network/computer support field, is the time-table for new purchases of equipmant being pushed ahead by 1 to 3 years. This will have a definate effect on future capitol expenditures. Something like: New purchases now=fewer $$$ next year and the year after for raises and such. The majority of the public have no clue about how computers work. What people don't understand, they loath and fear. 'puters, like guns, are going to get a lot of bad press and so are those of us that service and support them. De-rgulation of the power industry is causing some major outages right now. The equipment is old and getting older. The massive cutbacks in service personell in the power industry are causing outages in several major areas. clinton just issued 100 Million dollars to areas sufffering from high temperatures in the country to buy air conditioers. Stupid move there, as this will only add to the problems of an overloaded grid. Y2K, by itself is not a big deal. The public reaction is a big deal. Jan 1st is going to come and go with some minor hitches. Summer 00 is going to be a real big hitch. SameShot is right on the money (pun intended). The Fed Reserve is printing an additional 50 Billion in paper, "Just in case". Since there is an estimated 100 Billion in paper in circulation. the effect of adding 50% more worthless currency to what is already there could cause instant inflation , at a rate determined only by the percentage of that worthless paper going into circulation.
Dennis: This ones for you Bud ;)

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Drinking water and electricity, in that order, is all I am concerned about. I have enough food and ammo... er, I mean, supplies - yeah, supplies is what I mean, to last a couple weeks with NO problem - longer than that is possible but uncomfortable.

Reduced water supplies means smelly armpits and dirty clothes - that's survivable. Reduced DRINKING water means dehydration and death.

We have camp stoves (w/fuel) for cooking. Canned goods CAN get old ( :)) but that's survivable.

But we use electricity to keep cool in the summer and warm in the winter. Summer heat can be a killer in Texas - especially if drinking water is in short supply. Winter cold we can dress for - until pipes freeze and drinking water becomes unavailable.

We can carry river water to flush the toilets and suffer little in that respect.

Hmmm. What type of filtering is required to make SAFE drinking water from polluted river water? For a family of six to eight people?
 
Y2K hysteria has become a self-fullfilling prophesy. If enough people believe that something is going to happen then something does happen. The furvor of this mentality will be enough to create a little chaos.

For a good example of this mentality, read Issac Assimov's Night Fall.
 
For Y2K, I have faith in the Corporate American System.
Disription means loss of profits. Government may not be able to do anything - but COMPANIES will.
Remember the Earth Quake in LA - tore up the free ways? Kali was expecting a 2 year rebuild time - gave it to a private company with a bonus for every day the project was completed early. It was back open in just a couple months!

I wish Utah would do this... Freeways here are all under construction and wont be open till 2002. This has already been going on for years. Freaking Idiots at U.D.O.T!

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Every man Dies.
Not Every Man Truely Lives...
FREEDOM!

RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
 
I'm not really a Y2K fanatic, but I do have some concerns. I agree that people's reaction is going to make or break us. To give an example:
I'm a public school teacher, and this past April, on of my students asked me if I wanted to go with them on New Year's Eve. I asked why, and he stated that he and his friends were going to go out and get some new stereos. "That Y2K thing." he said. Hey, if the lowlives are already gearing up for looting, we could be in trouble....
I sure am glad I don't own a TV/Stereo shop in a big city! I think that power outages are going to be the key. The minute the lights go out (if they do), the looting and problems begin.

Rather soberly,
Gino
 
Jim Keenan: I agree. I, too, remember tube-type Philcos, Gabriel Heatter and H.V. Kaltenborn, and if it weren't for football and car racing I wouldn't watch much TV even today...

My comment about embedded chips stems from this: I have read various sources, some from folks associated with "Fixing", that many of these chips are built with much more capability than is actually needed in their usage. While their function is not date-sensitive, the "date-dealie" is built in. The assumption seems to be that some of these chips will "lock up" and cease their function when the big 00 hits.

Damfino. People who seem to have legitimate claim to credentials, who have convinced such as Senator Bennett of Utah and various electric company CEOs, have offered some variation of the above comments. It's out of my area of expertise...

I know the only way it could directly affect my world would be the already known inconvenience of power outage, but I'm used to that. And I have been prepared for it for many years; I hate warm beer! My life style ain't gonna change in any noticeable manner.

And besides, it ain't giant ants, man! It's wolvarillas! Got jaws like a crocagator, and armor like a armadilla! No anus, so you know what they can't do, and that's what makes them so mean! They only show up once a millenium...

Later, Art
 
I personally don't have any idea of what will really happen come Y2K. But I sure am enjoying all the hoopla. Being an old sci-fi fan and having spent time in urban hell zones, the Y2K ruminations of all and sundry have been just the incentive I needed to make major changes in my life. I'm now just about fully ready for "off the grid" life. Have my own water, lots of timber for fuel, smaller town surroundings, etc, etc. My sincerest wish is that NOTHING AT ALL happens come Jan 1, 2000. I'm too soft and lazy to have to consider "survivalism" and all it's harshness. But what a great excuse to buy a couple more rifles and enjoy a new life!
 
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