: I shot 4 rounds at 300 yards this morning in my Rem 700 308, I know everyone has flyers, but I really wanted to see this 4th round near or in the same hole as the other 3, but 3 inches away??. I'm 99% sure it wasn't me, I have a nice 40 power Burris scope on this and can see my heart beating on the target, plus a nice 2 pound Timney trigger. Any ideas what may cause this, the gun?, the scope?, I do have at least a thousand rounds through this barrel. I was on a concrete bench at the range with a nice Caldwell front rest and a v-shaped bag under the stock. Thanks for any ideas
Why this flyer?
- Thread starter lugerstew
- Start date
: I shot 4 rounds at 300 yards this morning in my Rem 700 308, I know everyone has flyers, but I really wanted to see this 4th round near or in the same hole as the other 3, but 3 inches away??. I'm 99% sure it wasn't me, I have a nice 40 power Burris scope on this and can see my heart beating on the target, plus a nice 2 pound Timney trigger. Any ideas what may cause this, the gun?, the scope?, I do have at least a thousand rounds through this barrel. I was on a concrete bench at the range with a nice Caldwell front rest and a v-shaped bag under the stock. Thanks for any ideas
There's a hundred reasons. Could be the projectile itself, a bit off balanced, the load could be off, .....
I expect most target shooters have had a similar experience. I have a .308 that on a few occasion has shot dime size 5 shot groups ....except one round was 1-3 inches out, with a similar setup that you have.
And you indicated that this was the 4th shot, so it wasn't a cold bore (unless there was a long period of time from the 3rd to the 4th shot).
I expect most target shooters have had a similar experience. I have a .308 that on a few occasion has shot dime size 5 shot groups ....except one round was 1-3 inches out, with a similar setup that you have.
And you indicated that this was the 4th shot, so it wasn't a cold bore (unless there was a long period of time from the 3rd to the 4th shot).
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Not sure which in the sequence the flyer was, I had just finished shooting about 10 site in rounds, because I usually shoot 100 or 200 yards, I just recently started shooting at the max 300 for our range after years of load development at 100 yds and experimenting with COAL's at 200 yds. I sure wish there were fewer than 100 reasons for flyers, darn, it was even a calm morning with no breeze, which is uncommon for that range that is on the plains of Colorado.
The fourth shot was probably not a flyer at all and the the first three were luck. Do some ten or twenty shot groups if you want to know what the gun/shooter is capable of. Not trying to be nasty but just stating a fact.
Put 6 more within a inch of the of the three touching and you can call the outlier a flier
Put 6 more within a inch of the of the three touching and you can call the outlier a flier
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Thanks Houndawg, ya, I generally don't put 3 shots in same hole at 300 yds, I also consider it luck, and you are right, its just this load was impressive at 100 and 200, but never with 10 or 20 rounds, because I didn't try that many. Thanks, I will load some more and do some more tests, wow, the endless efforts for sub moa groups!!! Ya everything is stock on this gun except the Burris 40x scope and the Timney 2 stage trigger.
Thanks so much, I guess I am always trying to get to the ultimate load for each bullet and rifle, with the least amount of expense and barrel throat wear, but it seems unless I narrow my options, I'm going to wear my barrels out before I finally find the Uber load. I just want it to perform at 100 to 500,, but so many variables makes it a chore for sure, but hey , I'm retired and I have the time to pursue this, but maybe not the money.
Lugerstew,
More shots are the measurement you need to get. I will be interested to see if you get two distinct groups, indicating a scope or a bedding problem that is shifting POI a consistent amount, or if that flier effect stops or repeats. While the others are correct that you could have a coincidence in that three-shot group, the statistical improbabilities work in both directions, and the odds of getting a triple hole out of just four shots from what averages to be a 1 MOA @ 300 gun are also very low. A single bad bullet could certainly explain it, too.
Odd fliers are also a symptom of a shot-out barrel, but at just 1000 rounds, that isn't reasonable to expect. Nonetheless, if you have access to a borescope, it might be worth a look at the throat, just in case you can spot damage or an asymmetry.
More shots are the measurement you need to get. I will be interested to see if you get two distinct groups, indicating a scope or a bedding problem that is shifting POI a consistent amount, or if that flier effect stops or repeats. While the others are correct that you could have a coincidence in that three-shot group, the statistical improbabilities work in both directions, and the odds of getting a triple hole out of just four shots from what averages to be a 1 MOA @ 300 gun are also very low. A single bad bullet could certainly explain it, too.
Odd fliers are also a symptom of a shot-out barrel, but at just 1000 rounds, that isn't reasonable to expect. Nonetheless, if you have access to a borescope, it might be worth a look at the throat, just in case you can spot damage or an asymmetry.
to me the definition of a flyer is a unexplained shot outside the rest of the group. Here is a target from a 300 match which had a left to right 7-10 mph crosswind. The only shot I would consider a "flyer" would be the one on the far left. Even that was probably me missing a wind shift. It is not uncommon to see five or more shots fired touching in a 300 match or even in a 800 yard one.
I surely would not be worrying about barrel burn out for any rifle with a off the shelf barrel that could hold a 3 inch group at 300. I have scored targets where the only way to determine the X ring count was to count the shots outside the X ring because the middle of the target was shot out. That .308 should still have over 2000 rounds left in it
I surely would not be worrying about barrel burn out for any rifle with a off the shelf barrel that could hold a 3 inch group at 300. I have scored targets where the only way to determine the X ring count was to count the shots outside the X ring because the middle of the target was shot out. That .308 should still have over 2000 rounds left in it
Attachments
5mph full value wind would be 6 - 7 inches depending on the BC of the bullet
http://www.jbmballistics.com/cgi-bin/jbmtraj-5.1.cgi
Haha that was my first thought as well . The OP clearly has not learned that you put your dime over the forth shot to show how small that group is while hiding the flier behind the coin lol . Hell that's internet grouping pic 101
Yep I had a bedding issue with a rifle that shot double groups and as the OP may find out only shooting 3 or 4 shot groups may make it impossible to see .
Here are two targets one 4 shot group the other 10 shot group
Note how they both have the same angled pattern and also being the same distance apart . Yes the first pic is clearly two separate groups but I did not notice them and they weren't all like that . Some looked like this , still doubled but not as noticeable and some not doubled at all .
I I keep all my load development targets attached to load data sheet . One day I was looking at them all getting everything organized better and it was only then did I see the obvious pattern of double groups I had been shooting for what turned out to be 6 months or so . I was having a hard time working up consistent loads during that time and it turned out not to be my reloading but rather my rear action screw working loose to less then 5lbs of torque . I did an action screw torque test to find what shot best . Used Loc-tite on the screws after and have never shot a double group again with that rifle .
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Smart and good target analysis
The Ontarget Program is inexpensive and easy to use. That is what I use for load development log and record progress in matches. Everyone I know carries a cellphone with a camera and at any match you will see people taking shots of their targets. I find it much easier than keeping paper targets stored and organized.
Back to the OP shoot a few 5 - 10 round targets and post them. For a stock Rem it looks like you have a shooter
Thanks everyone, and by the way some nice groups, I'm jealous, but always trying to improve. On the comments of bedding, this is a stock rem 700 with 26 inch medium heavy barrel, but I have always wondered if I should get it bedded by a professional, even though I've heard its not that difficult. I have checked all the screws on the gun and scope, but i will check them again.
Back to the loading bench to load about 15 of the exact round and see what the results are, Wow, I had no idea a 5mph crosswind could have a 6 inch difference with a 185 grain Berger bullet with a BC over .500! Thanks again
Back to the loading bench to load about 15 of the exact round and see what the results are, Wow, I had no idea a 5mph crosswind could have a 6 inch difference with a 185 grain Berger bullet with a BC over .500! Thanks again
That 5 - 6 inches was for a 168 gn with a .3. I ran the numbers for a berger 185 with .533 @ 2500 FPS with 5mph full effect and it went down to 3.5 inches. Post us some 5 -10 shot groups when you get a chance. I had a friend with a totally stock Rem in .308 that could win/place in matches pretty regularly. He beat a lot of guys with 3.5 - 5K customs. Also saw a guy with a Ruger Precision in 6 CM shoot a 199 12X with off the shelf ammo. A lot has to do with the shooter and their ability to make wind calls. If you can't read the wind at medium and long range the best ammo and rifle in the world won't help.
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I started out at 3 shots becuase it was nice to feel good once in a while (yes I know I was fooling myself)
Now 5 is standard and I do ten at time.
The following is an example of what Unclenick sites as a shift. Its an 100 year old gun with a WWII barrel. The first 5 were spot on, the last 3 shifted up and to the right. Not surprised with an OEM stock, not bedding done etc. Still a good group for the gun but and example of what a 6th bullet can do vs a 4th in your case.
It won't attach, but it opened up to 1 1/4 in a different group of 3. Nice but a clear shift and still a nice overall.
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Wind deflection depends on velocity and BC because it is a percentage of the overall drag on the bullet that is determined by the vector combination of the bullet's headwind with the meteorological wind.
Here's the issue with random luck. Below, I straightened up your image in Photoshop by making the center bull round, and increased the contrast and sharpess a little and put it into the OnTarget TDS program. Then I split it into two groups, for which the stats are in the second image below it.
Note that the above image has stats for both the 4-shot group (upper) and the 3 close shots (lower) as its own group. So here's the trick. Looking at the three shots as a group and considering its radial standard deviation. The software gives 0.103" using the standard formula for sample standard deviation (SD), which doesn't work very well for sample sizes smaller than about 8, so I applied the zye of n method and got an estimate of 0.133". But that's not really important. What is important is that a single flier 3.4 inches away is about 25 standard deviations from the other three. If you assume the three tight shots were truly representative, and if you further assume all four had load components and shooting precision that were identically noisy, the odds against that outlier being purely random are astronomical. To give you some idea how astronomical, Excel runs out of decimal places for calculating that at 7.96 standard deviations, at which point the odds are 562,949,953,421,312:1 against the source of the error being random. So from that perspective, something happened that wasn't just random noise in the shooting system.
If I take the reverse approach and say the upper data represents the true average group size and ask what the odds are of all three out of the four landing in that same spot, I get about 335,000:1. Not so astronomical, but still arguing pretty strongly against the odds of the group's shot distribution being random. Again, this indicates it is far more likely some discreet abnormality occurred, be it the bedding shifting, the sights or their rings shifting, or a bad bullet being responsible.
One other thing that could cause it would be have three perfectly concentrically seated bullets an one that was crooked in the case. Normally, I would expect that to have only about half as much effect as that flier illustrates, but at least it is something that can be inspected for.
Here's the issue with random luck. Below, I straightened up your image in Photoshop by making the center bull round, and increased the contrast and sharpess a little and put it into the OnTarget TDS program. Then I split it into two groups, for which the stats are in the second image below it.
Note that the above image has stats for both the 4-shot group (upper) and the 3 close shots (lower) as its own group. So here's the trick. Looking at the three shots as a group and considering its radial standard deviation. The software gives 0.103" using the standard formula for sample standard deviation (SD), which doesn't work very well for sample sizes smaller than about 8, so I applied the zye of n method and got an estimate of 0.133". But that's not really important. What is important is that a single flier 3.4 inches away is about 25 standard deviations from the other three. If you assume the three tight shots were truly representative, and if you further assume all four had load components and shooting precision that were identically noisy, the odds against that outlier being purely random are astronomical. To give you some idea how astronomical, Excel runs out of decimal places for calculating that at 7.96 standard deviations, at which point the odds are 562,949,953,421,312:1 against the source of the error being random. So from that perspective, something happened that wasn't just random noise in the shooting system.
If I take the reverse approach and say the upper data represents the true average group size and ask what the odds are of all three out of the four landing in that same spot, I get about 335,000:1. Not so astronomical, but still arguing pretty strongly against the odds of the group's shot distribution being random. Again, this indicates it is far more likely some discreet abnormality occurred, be it the bedding shifting, the sights or their rings shifting, or a bad bullet being responsible.
One other thing that could cause it would be have three perfectly concentrically seated bullets an one that was crooked in the case. Normally, I would expect that to have only about half as much effect as that flier illustrates, but at least it is something that can be inspected for.