I guess you need a numerical example.
Lets say blue state B has the following demographics:
200 "productively challenged." ("Blue_PC") All, of course, who vote Party D. After all, Party D is giving them welfare to buy their votes.
450 productive citizens who vote Party R. ("Blue_R")
350 productive citizens who vote Party D. ("Blue_D")
At election time, this is counted as a blue state as the blues win at the polls: 550 to 450.
Let"s say red state R has the following demographics:
5 productively challenged ("Red_PC”) productive citizens who vote Party D.
55 productive citizens who vote Party R. (“Red_R”)
40 productive citizens who vote Party D. (“Red_D”)
At election time, this is counted as a red state as the reds win at the polls: 55 to 45.
So, even if state B is a net exporter of tax money and state R is a net importer of tax money, it is silly to try and make anything of that isolated statistic if the majority of the productive citizens are actually red.
Worse, state boundaries are pretty coarse. A better indicator would be county-by-county. In the state of California, for example, which countries are paying more in taxes than they are getting back, and which are receiving more than they're paying ? And which way did they vote ? My guess, and I have to guess because I don"t know where to look this up, is that a handful of big-population, D-votin', urban blue counties are sucking up all the cash. This might not be true; LA County is huge, and encompasses an awful lot of employers (many of whom have government contracts; I'm thinking of aerospace; is that federal money included in the allocation of federal handouts ?)
Now here's where the blues really have to worry. If the country divides up geographically and politically into Blueville and Redville, those 450 Blue_R folks will move over to Redville, the 40 Red_D folks and the 5 Red_PC folks will move to Blueville.
Final demographics:
Blueville:
205 PC
390 D
Redville:
505 R
With a huge population of folks who don't work and who have been shown by Blue Hero FDR and LBJ they don"t have to work, I think Blueville is going to have problems. After all, they no longer have the Reds to carry the load.
The main problem Redville will have is defending its borders from bluenecks who are fleeing Blueville.