What do you think about the shape of the US economy?

[1-UP]

My buying power is pretty much staying the same. That takes into account, however, some changes in lifestyle (few meals out, MUCH less driving around to visit friends). What's more, I'm still basically living at the same level I was when I was fresh out of college (6 years ago) when I should in theory have an income that's starting to loosen up (Pay's gone up 15-20%).

So basically, I'm living a little bit leaner to maintain what I've always had, when I should in theory be prospering (that's the theory, right?).

Recession or not, it still ain't good.

 

[benign.neglect]

I guess it all depends on what the definition of recession is.......

Especially if you are in the Bush Administration. I have no doubt that if the stock market crashed ala 1929, the Bush administration would spin it as a minor economic downturn.

 

[sasquatch]

Especially if you are in the Bush Administration. I have no doubt that if the stock market crashed ala 1929, the Bush administration would spin it as a minor economic downturn.

Nice bash, but if you'll do a little research you'll find many economists not connected with Pres. Bush who do not believe we are in a recession.

 

[wingman]

Let me see high cost of fuel,crashing housing market, increased food cost, outsourcing,loss of manufacturing jobs,importing of cheap poorly educated slave labor, growing population many dropping out of high school, high medical cost, etc, say good buy middle class. It's not about the stock market or how some of us are doing on a personal basic. Greedy corporations who control our government bet on you and I going in debt to buy junk products from China and other countries my opinion just say no like drugs debt now is a family killer. Pay off your debt, cut up credit cards, and as I said before drop the cell phones, cable TV, we the consumer can change corporations/ government thinking because now they consider us fools,may take some sacrifice but in the end you will win.

 

[benign.neglect]

Nice bash, but if you'll do a little research you'll find many economists not connected with Pres. Bush who do not believe we are in a recession.

Who are these economists?

How many is "many"?

 

[Master Blaster]

Definition of a Recession: Negative growth in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters.

This is what economists consider to be a recession.

Another take:

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.

 

[sasquatch]

Who are these economists?

For a start:

.....if the second quarter does not show decline, it's very unlikely we'll have a recession in 2008," said Wachovia economist Mark Vitner.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080529/052908_gdp_revision.html?.v=4

"We are not going to have a recession this time. This time the troubles in housing will stay in housing," predicts Edward Leamer, director of the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Mr. Frankel, a Harvard University economist, notes that the housing slump is one of several forces buffeting consumers.....Still, he says it's conceivable that a recession could be avoided.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20080528/ts_csm/arecession_1

"The overall GDP growth rate is still indicative of a sluggish economy on the cusp of recession," said Paul Ferley, an economist at RBC Capital Markets.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=119996

David Allardice, economist and director of doctoral programs at Walsh College in Troy, expects that the U.S. economy will continue to improve in the second half of this year.

He believes the U.S. economy will technically avoid a recession, even though the economy is experiencing sluggish growth.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/COL07/805250658

We are somewhere in the twilight zone between an expansion and a recession,'' said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKYWc5_8EEbY

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Fritz Meyer, senior market strategist at Invesco Aim Advisors Inc., comments on his outlook for U.S. economic growth and the stock market. He spoke from Denver in an interview.

``We probably won't slip into a recession because there are sectors of the economy that are absolutely on fire, which will probably carry the economy long enough, keeping it out of a recession, until consumer spending growth picks up a little bit and the housing market recovers.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awM76BbetT6g

 

[benign.neglect]

Thats only 7 economists (which I would not consider many), and most of those are tied to organizations where it is important for them to convince investors that the economy is strong so they will continue to invest. These people have an interest in misrepresenting the strength of the economy, and are biased.

Anyone who is trying to sell you a product is going to try and make you believe their product is doing great.

 

[sasquatch]

These people have an interest in misrepresenting the strength of the economy, and are biased.

--Edward Leamer, director of the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles.

--Mr. Frankel, a Harvard University economist

--David Allardice, economist and director of doctoral programs at Walsh College in Troy

Yep, these folks have a vested interest in "misrepresenting the strength of the economy, and are biased".

I could give you more, but you know what you want to believe. Have a good one......

 

[benign.neglect]

Ok, so at best THREE of your sources are not directly employed by firms that make money selling stocks. THREE is not many. Of those three, are any of them serving on corporate boards? Are you sure they are not biased?

 

[sasquatch]

Ok, so at best THREE of your sources are not directly employed by firms that make money selling stocks. THREE is not many. Of those three, are any of them serving on corporate boards? Are you sure they are not biased?

Well, I was going to leave this one alone, but I just can't.

Are you biased? Can you give me a generally accepted definition of what constitutes a recession, along with names of at least 7 economists who agree with said definition?

GO !

 

[benign.neglect]

I don't see any need to respond. I wasnt the one making wild claims and citing poor references.
If you don't even know what a recession is, do some research on your own and report back.

 

[sasquatch]

I don't see any need to respond.

No surprise there, basically what I expected........thanks for your time.

 

[benign.neglect]

You are welcome.

Look into your sources, and make sure you can trust them.

 

[homefires]

I'm going broke! Nothing else to say!

 

[sasquatch]

benign.neglect

I wasnt the one making wild claims and citing poor references.

Look into your sources, and make sure you can trust them.

How's this?

Prof. Edward Leamer, director of the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles.

UCLA Anderson School of Management, established in 1935, is regarded among the very best business schools in the world. UCLA Anderson faculty are ranked #1 in "Intellectual Capital" by BusinessWeek and are renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing management thinking. Each year, UCLA Anderson provides management education to more than 1,600 students enrolled in MBA, Executive MBA, Fully-Employed MBA and doctoral programs, and to more than 2,000 professional managers through executive education programs.


Jeffrey A. Frankel, Harvard Kennedy School, is James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth. He directs the Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, where he is also on the Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Prof. Frankel was appointed to the Council of Economic Advisers by President Clinton in 1996, and subsequently confirmed by the Senate. Past appointments include the Brookings Institution, Federal Reserve Board, Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, University of Michigan and Yale.


Dr. David Allardice, Leading Walsh College's (Michigan's largest graduate business school) New Doctor of Management Program.
In March 2006 Dr. Allardice joined Walsh College tasked with two new positions; one to direct the new Doctor of Management in Executive Leadership (DM-EL), and the other to direct the recently launched Master of Science in International Business (MSIB).

 

[Mikeyboy]

Simply put I have less "Funny money" to buy guns, and other stuff. Also I was losing money in my 401K, but with some movement into stable stuff, the bleeding has stopped.

However at the end of the day I'm still OK. I have a job, with no fears of a pending layoff. I was unemployed for a few months during the early 90's recession, and I adverted a layoff by switching careers during the post 9/11/01 mini-recession. The early 1990's were rough times for me. Recession means even though you have work experience and a college degree you have to fight just to get a minimum wage job. You do not screw around in work, because your employer is looking for any good reason to lay you off. Todays economy is a lot better than it was 15 years ago, however I know that can change, and I'm more prepared for that now.

Your #1 priority should be to diversify and improve on your work skills, get a good stable job and hold on to it for dear life until things settle down.

Like someone else has said, you got to cut back on some thing to compensate for the rise in gas prices. I started packing lunches instead of eating out, and I cut back on some of my hobbies (aka shooting less)

Hopefully this is all a bubble that will eventually burst and while things will never be perfect, it will get better.

 

[benign.neglect]

Sasquatch, you still don't know what corporate boards if any they may serve on, nor how much personal assests they have invested in the markets, or to what groups they may or may not be beholden.

Its three people anyway, not the many you mentioned earlier.

Not trying to be argumentative here, just pointing out the reality.

 

[shortwave]

Its funny that some people need an economist to tell the rest of the working people whether they are in a recession or not. My personnal finances are fine. My kids are grown, house and property nearly paid for, can and able financially to retire in 11 days. My earlier posting was not meant so much for myself as it was for kids and people i see around me, especially ones just starting out. Its hard for the majority of the American population to sit and watch record setting profit margins being made by the big oil companies and have their inteligence insulted by being told the price of a gal. of gas just spiked another .25 cents cause a typhoon is EXPECTED somewhere in the Atlantic. Google the price of a gal. of gas world-wide. It will amaze you to see what some of the third world countries are paying for gas. Why so cheap there? Can`t get blood out of turnip, thats why. IMHO, if this was not considered a wealthy country, we wouldn`t be paying the price we`re paying. Supply and demand. They`ve got the oil, we`ve got the money and in between stands our own refineries getting fat with record profits. I do believe that the fuel thing will stabilize and the bubble effect as mentioned in previous posting. This is not the 1st time high fuel cost has injured our economy. My question is, will we ever re-structure our economy not to be so dependant on oil since the "tree huggers" don`t want us to drill our own? History gives us lesson`s to learn by. The people, NOT THE GOVERNMENT, need to start making changes.

 

[applesanity]

I'm doing much better than last year.

If y'all keep complaining about rising gas prices and crazy profits from energy companines, first consider the actual profit margins -- slim. Second, consider investing in these oil companies. Oh wait, those of you with retirement plans and mutual funds are already invested, indirectly.

Or change your driving habits. If you're the first car at an intersection when the light is red, don't gun it on green. sure, other cars may past you, and you might look a bit wimpy, but a gradual acceleration to 65mph or a lead foot stomp to 65mph will get you to 65 mph either way, except the lead foot stomp doubles your fuel consumption. Turn off your car while waiting at the drive-thru, instead of leaving on idle. Better yet, stop going to drive-thrus.

Unless you need it for work (i.e. hauling gravel or lots and lots of 2X4s and drywall), and/or unless you unbelievably, morbidly fat, do you really really need that giant F-350? Does the AR15 need more tacticool accessories? Does my camera really need a bigger, badder lens? (well no, but I bought one anyway, because I can.)

If some illiterate 17-year old in Northern Mexico is stamping widgets for 5 bucks a day - the same widgets you used to stamp here *with pride* back home for $15-20 an hour + benefits... until the plant closed down, then maybe consider going to community college or vocational school to learn a new trade.

In my line of work, I basically have to re-learn everything every year, or else I become obsolete, unemployed, and broke. I hit the books during my off-time to remain competitive.

In bad times, one can still be successful. That housing bubble smacked many us really bad. So invest in property in one of those east Asian countries whose economies are growing 6-8% a year and urban real estate values doubling every 5 years. Yeah, that's right. It doubled. Woo hoo!

As soon as I got my Government stimulus check for $600, I went on a vacation - abroad. Take that, U.S. economy!