what are the chances of a new Republican president?

It's a funny thing. If the current front runners take the GOP, they stand no chance against Hillary and are just as bad for us anyway. If a real traditional, anti war, conservative republican can come through and win the GOP, they'll have a high chance to beat Hillary.
A conservative with real ideas, substance, a strong background and strong message, will be a no brainer of a choice when they're debating the current hot air dems who seek to "inspire" and confuse their supporters.
So, depending on who takes GOP, I can see a 90% chance of presidency.
 
Do you think "Iraq" and "Economy" are separate issues? That's the crucial mistake that the candidates and the media are making! We've pumped all our money overseas! Approaching 2 trillion for the war on terror, to protect our rights that we gave up in the patriot act!!
If a candidate can start seeing that Iraq and our policy are the cause of economic shortfalls, they'll make it to the end and have a great chance at the presidency.
 
Anyone that thinks that Hillary or Obama will stand up for gun owners rights is in dreamland. They're both socialist that see gun owners as criminals.
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Then again so did Nixon, Reagon, Ford, Bush Sr and to some extent Eisenhower have the same opinions of gun owners rights. Each signed off on severe limitations. I can't think of a real good to honest defender of the second amendment having been the president in many decades.

Out of the Republicans left I think McCain has the greatest chance of election. Maybe a 5-10%

Huckabee would have until he started talking about the need to ammend the constitution to make it more suited to religion, and most people get really nervous when someone talks about that. It make a few of the extremists happy but drove off alot of voters.

Romney has the money that will likely leave him second in the race for the Republican nomination but there done a good job of raking him over the coals over his religion and assigning him as a liberal.

Guiliani is just plain annoying. You can't base a whole campaign by saying a noun, a verb, followed by 9-11. It is making a mockery of a tragedy and people have had enough of it.

Ron Paul has little chance of securing the nomination. His own supporters don't help, nor do the whole party and news that normally is Republican supporters doing all they can to go against Ron Paul. They would never let him get the nomination.

There is always Alan Keyes. That guy scares me.
 
After 4 years of Obama or the Wicked Witch, we will either rebuild a nation using the Constitution and Bill of Rights, or continue circling the drain.
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In the worse-case scenario, I believe it will happen sooner. Mid-term Congressional elections are held only 2 years after the Democrat takes office. Hopefully, enough true conservative legislators would be elected to negate the Presidents' programs.
 
Hillary nomination would be good news to spinelessrepublicans. It would bring out the anti-Hillary vote in droves. Absent the vote against Hillary, spinelessrepublicans look weak.

That said, neither party will deal with what really is important. I think fundamentally both parties would prefer the second amendment just go away. Neither party will make it an issue. On the issues of importance (the financial tsunami rolling in, islamofascist terrorism, loss of civil liberties, globalism, and real immigration controls) neither party will do anything substantial.

Think shirts and skins of the same team and you will have a accurate view of our political mess.
 
In the worse-case scenario, I believe it will happen sooner. Mid-term Congressional elections are held only 2 years after the Democrat takes office. Hopefully, enough true conservative legislators would be elected to negate the Presidents' programs.
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Hopefully some of the blue dog Democrats (those that are socially moderate to conservative) will vote their beliefs, rather than the party line. One can always hope, right?
 
50-50%. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination I don't think he'll win.
My personal opinion is the first black president will come from the Right, he'll
be a war hero among other things. Any gun owner who votes for Obama is
a Fudd or has rocks in his head. And Obama is too liberal, if he tacks too far to the Center he will alienate his liberal base, if he runs as "himself" I think he's too far to the Left. The Dems had to run a lot of fairly conservative candidates in 2006, they still won only narrowly. Plus Obama's main appeal is the he is the UnClinton. Columnist Richard Cohen recently described him as
"a fog of a man."
 
There is a lot of time between now and the election, and a lot of things can happen. I have a feeling that the Dem candidates may just self destruct. In Hillary's case, there are many who just don't like her; even in her own party. Obama would have to actually spell out more precisely what the word "change" means, and in his case it may well cost him, because it won't resonate well with moderate and conservative voters. Depending on who wins the Dem. nomination, I wonder if they can depend on the other half of the party to support them. How will that play out? I know people who support Hillary just because she's a woman, and those who support Obama just because he's black. That's idiotic, but just demonstrates the sad state of our gov as it exists today. As far as our 2A rights I don't see anyone who will stand up strongly for it. Best get what you want now or you may not get it at all. Makes the pending SCOTUS decision even more important. Back to the main topic, right now I'd say it would be about 47% chance of a Rep. president, for all the good that will do.
 
A few weeks ago I would have bet that a leftie President was a lock.

Then McCain won a few, and Hillary and Obama came out swinging--at each other.

It's not that McCain is that great a chance, but he did show the GOP that a Republican might be able to win after all.

As for Obama and Hillary, I think their desire to both win, Willie's lust and Oprah's money, they just might knock each other out.
 
Not bad chances at all, really. The way I'm seeing it, Clinton is getting votes from Democrats who don't care for Obama, and Obama is similarly getting anti-Clinton votes. Nobody really seems excited about voting for either. Since one of these two will likely be the Democratic nominee, it looks likely that the democrats will have a voter turnout problem on their hands. Even if Romney gets the nod from the GOP, the Dems may have serious difficulty in getting anyone who is not a dedicated leftist off the couch. and if McCain heads up the ticket, even they might stay home.
 
Not bad chances at all, really. The way I'm seeing it, Clinton is getting votes from Democrats who don't care for Obama, and Obama is similarly getting anti-Clinton votes. Nobody really seems excited about voting for either.
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You must not hang out around a lot of Democrats. I've run into plenty who are excited about voting for one or the other (Obama more so than Hillary).

That, and either Clinton or Obama will get plenty of votes from those voting against the Republicans. You might think it's just the "dedicated leftists," but I think this contingent among Democratic voters is larger than you might think.

However, I agree that all the doom and gloom is overblown; while if I were taking bets I'd give the edge to the Democrats, I'd still put the odds at something like 60:40. Hardly a long shot for the Republicans.
 
+1 on Juan's post, he's right: the democrats will turn out in force to vote for the democratic nominee. That's why I cringe when I hear how democrats might be convinced to vote for the nominee from another party. I'm not sure how independents will vote, but I'm darn sure the demos will vote for a demo, plain and simple.

Juan's probably about right regarding the chances of a Republican win, but you never know. There's a lot of time left for stuff to happen. We'll have to see...
 
I don't have much hope the republicans will win. I don't think I can stand to watch the Clintons for another 4 to 8 years so I guess I hope it is Obama vs. McCain. I don't mind tossing away a vote-I voted for Kinky instead of Perry-but I think it will be close enough that the Ron Paul folks need to gut up and vote for whoever wins the Republican nomination.

David
 
Perhaps Condoleezza Rice in 2012?
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I don't think Condi will ever be able to wash off the negative association with the current administration. That pretty much goes for every member of W's inner circle.
 
In perspective

While the hanging chad issue might not ever happen again we should all be realizing the minimal voter count it takes to put the system into lock-down.
With the unhappy campers spread through out the entire spectrum of voters betting on a sure win by anyone is a risky bet.

Once this election get knocked back to two candidates things will be different. You have to consider the overall number who will vote for one candidate or the other; not just chose one from a field of five, six, or seven possabilities. During these primaries its easy to vote for the candidate who ends up third, fourth or fifth. What is the total primary vote count for each party? That might be a better indicator.

This latest economy thing has got a lot of people wondering just what is going on. Over and over the country has been hearing the economy is doing great. Now all we hear is how this great economy needs a bit of help to stop a recession. That is not a favorable announcement for the Republican candidates. The idea the last few years were not going as well as reported is now in voters minds. In fact it makes some of us believe the reports on the economy were as wrong as so many other proclamations from the WH.
 
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