The ammo "bubble"

"If everyone bought only what they needed there would be no ammo shortage"
MBRinTN
For the last 10 yrs if everyone had bought what they needed instead of what they wanted we wouldn't be in the shape we are in now but credit cards and mortgage companies made it too easy to buy anything bigger and better than the guy next door. Greed is a nasty game that has led to more than one downfall. I have always been stocked up with a few thousand rounds of my favorites so I don't need to buy now, but the laws of supply and demand have always run our economy.
 
Duh

I did, however, notice some new signs which stated there would be no returns accepted on ammunition sales. Maybe some folks had bought a lot of ammunition and then had some buyer's remorse?
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I've been shooting for thirty years (buying my own ammo for about eighteen) and as long as I can remember, ALL ammo sales have always been final. That's not some new rule, liability issues have dictated that for years.
 
Either ignorance or willful blindness runs rampant.

do you really think the Obama administration is going to ban .38 special ammo, I mean really?
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I don't need to make stuff up. Obama's voting history and statements on legislation are clear: HE WANTS TO BAN HUGE CATAGORIES OF FIREARMS AND AMMUNITION! To think otherwise is either ignorance or blindness to the obvious.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,427347,00.html

http://losttarget.blogspot.com/2008/02/serialized-ammunition-and-005-tax-per.html

Just two examples. When will people get it through their thick skulls. Obama wants to take your guns. He has admitted that is not "politically practical." He won't take them, he'll just do what democrats always do. He'll raise taxes to the point so that we can't afford to shoot.

I dare anyone, find a concrete example of a vote he has cast or a bill he has supported that would increase our ability to hunt, shoot, or collect.

I wait, not holding my breath!
 
Ain't nobody going to ban nothing.
What should be banned are these nonsense, Obama is going to ban ......., posts. All they have done is scare people into a buying frenzy.

What concerns me is that prices may not go back down once the retailers, wholesales and manufacturers see that people are willing to pay anything for bullets and guns and that they can keep charging high prices once the demand returns to pre-scare days.

Greed is a nasty game that has led to more than one downfall.
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Absolutely correct. That's how the economy got so messed up, the greedy Wall Street types bending the rules or good common sense to make large profits and bonuses.
 
Having ranted a bit...

I do agree with the OP in some aspects. There are many reasons to believe that any Obama gun/ammo ban and or tax increase will be some distance in the future. I'm not panic buying, Frank is right. When you leap into line, you lose your power.

I'm buying a box or so a paycheck, not hoarding thousands of rounds. I am, however, buying a box when I find a deal, a "deal" being a relative term these days.

We must all be aware. Our current government wants to eliminate our right to own and use firearms. We must be active. We must communicate with our representatives. Take part in the Tea Parties. Watch the news and understand what is going on. Educate yourself and your friends, family, and neighbors. Let them know that when one of our God-given rights are taken, none are safe. Most people don't realize that when a precedent is set, the dominoes fall.
 
Ok, LA...

...Take my challenge. Find me one example of President Obama not supporting/advocating actual legislation that infringes on our rights. As I said, he probably won't actually ban anything, but he and his friends want to and probably will move to increase the cost of shooting.

This is from the FoxNews story I linked to...a 2003 statement from Obama that “a complete ban on handguns is not politically practicable.”

President Obama often makes statements like this. I believe that he will not move to outright ban anything past renewing the assault weapons ban. I believe that he will increase restrictions and taxes so that all aspects of the shooting sports will be more expensive, more impractical, and generally less accessable to many Americans. I hope I'm wrong. The problem is, for some reason, many people have their heads in the sand and ignore actions.

During the campaign, some of my friends scoffed when I said Obama is a socialist. Well, the government now owns 40% of Citibank, 39% of Chrysler, and is soon to own 50% of GM. That's only in 100 days. I'm such an idiot. I was soooooo wrong.

Remember the scorpion.
 
I've been shooting for thirty years (buying my own ammo for about eighteen) and as long as I can remember, ALL ammo sales have always been final. That's not some new rule, liability issues have dictated that for years.
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I'm sorry. I was unclear. (Not the first time, either. ;) )

The signs about there being no ammunition returns were new for this store, and I've been shopping there occasionally for many years.

I didn't ask why the new signs had been added, though, and it could certainly have been for something entirely unrelated to the recent flurry of ammunition sales. (Hence the question mark at the end of my earlier comment.)
 
Obama is for change. \
He won't ban firearms as he supports us gun owners 100%. That is why I voted for him.
It is Just media hype like the Swine Flu. Obama will not let it infect the USA. Obama is out savior!!!!!
 
Can anyone give one, concrete example of something the Obama administration has done to limit gun or ammunition sales? What about personal responsibility? Isn't this a hallmark of conservatism? People are hoarding,, and panic buying, based on their fears or what might happen. There also seems to be a fair bit of price gouging going on.
 
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I see.

Ok, fastbolt, that makes sense. I'm sure that sign isn't posted at every store, I guess it's kind of an understood rule.

MBR, you are right. There is a panic to much of this. The OP is right panic helps no one. As to the Obama Administration/Dem Congress, they haven't made any moves yet. It's only been 100 days, give them time. Don't worry though, I think any gun-control BS will wait until they get some certainty on Swine flu, the Economy, Forclosures, Mexican collapse, Pakistani collapse, the Dollar collapse, the auto industry collapse, pension fund collapse, tax receipt collapse, muni bond rating collapse, etc, etc.

In a way, a good old fashioned assault weapons ban in Congress might indicate that they've solved all the real problems and are getting back to the old days. :confused:
 
I doubt the WSJ article on the booming gun and ammo market helped. I do think we are in the midst of an ammunition price bubble caused by a shift in demand and an inelastic supply.

Normally the market has mostly shooters, a few stockpilers, and virtually no resellers because demand is not high enough to justify it. I think many shooters who didn't stockpile before are doing so now. There's also lots of new gun owners who probably just take the advice of someone they know to get a case of ammo for their new gun. The competition of new stockpilers with shooters who normally stockpile ammo is creating a shortage which has stimulated buying (particularly from Walmart) to resell in the secondary market.

The market is already taking steps to cut down the bulk supply in order to reduce the secondary market. The perpetually bare Walmart shelves along with Walmart's new limits on ammo purchases will reduce the supply in the secondary market and could drive those prices higher. I think that the reduced flow of ammo from Walmart to resellers (and the corresponding price spike in the secondary market) will signal the beginning of the end of the ammo boom.

Sooner or later most people will either have what they regard as an adequate stockpile or they will regard the secondary market prices as more than they want to pay for more than a couple of boxes of ammo to keep around.

If Washington makes rumblings about hostile new legislation all bets are off of course.
 
people lacking in foresight whining about people practicing their rights to purchase ammo has gotten old fast.


please, stop your sniveling...you snooze, you lose
 
ConfuseUS, you're absolutely right. This is a bubble, just like the bubble in the stock and housing markets and it will correct in exactly the same way that these markets corrected. We're already seeing price gouging and rapid inflation of ammunition prices. That is what happens classically in a bubble, prices begin to inflate irrationally until the cost of the inflated products exceeds the demand for them. At that point, panic buying ceases, supplies expand, and prices drop.

As with nearly all bubbles it's impossible to predict when this one will end. But it assuredly will. At some point enough people will decide that they cannot pay $50 for that next box of .380 or whatever and the bubble will deflate.

It's a good question as to why we're in a bubble at this time. Personally, I think irrational fears about changes in the gun laws, fueled by irresponsible and at times hysterical talk, is a major element. But, I also think that it may be a consequence of the general tenor of the times. Face it, people justifiably feel insecure these days. Gun ownership for many is a way of reasserting a little self control. Hence, the sudden boom in gun and ammo sales.
 
Greed and gouging went to the National gun show in Chantily Sunday. One Vendor had small rifle primers 135.00 per thousand. Hoarding talked to a dealer Ive known for sometime helped a gentleman procure 25,000.00 in ammo between several dealers. :eek:
 
Some people are practicing their "Right" to buy ammo. Others are simply practicing their right to be "Retarded". I love when I hear someone say something like; "I'd pay $x.xx for ammo if I could just find it". Definitely exercising their right to be retarded. The vast majority of the people hoarding aren't even shooting on a regular basis. I have ammunition at 3 layers of importance.

1) Enough of the right ammo for personal/self defense. e.g. HP, 357mag, 45acp, 32auto, 4 Buck.
2) Enough of the right ammo for survival purposes. e.g. listed above for defense during survival situations. Add in 22/22mag, 7mm mag, 30-30, X-Bow, etc...
3) Enough of the right ammo for sporting purposes. Plinking, trap, practice, etc... E.g. every caliber I have.

Now; as long as I have enough of the first group for defense purposes, and enough of the 2nd group for getting food, the 3rd group can be put on hold. I'd love to ski and sno mobile all year long. But I'm not going to pay to go to argentina in July to do it. Well, I guess my "hobby-sport" of plinking can also be cut back a little until the prices/supply improve.

But I guess the real question is; how much ammo is needed? Well, for most people, they don't have #3 above. They might shoot a gun 2-3 times in a year, and that's if they are lucky. So, taking that out of the equation for MOST people, how much do people really need. Well, most people don't have any idea of what "Survival" is all about. They don't realize that a 22lr is probably the BEST ammo in the world in a survival situation. Most wouldn't know how to survive anyway. The problem is the first group. Almost every person who has a gun, has self defense as a reason. I have been watching in Wyoming and Colorado. The typical 1 gun owner who has a gun for defense, isn't hoarding. They shoot probably 1-2 boxes a year. But, because of the paranoia, they gone out an bought on average 5-10 boxes. That's all. Unfortunately, when you take 500 round and multiply it by millions of people, it creates a massive shortage. Combine that will military and police contracts that use the same calibers, and you run into problems. Then, throw in those who aren't mega shooters (Many of them reload and always have a good stock pile because they are always shooting); but rather the shooter who thinks they are savvy gun owners and know how to survive in a situation. They are the ones buying cases of ammo. Buying anything that is on the shelf and saying to hell with anyone behind me. Then, after enough of that, you get those who are simply trying to make money by buying all they can in the hopes of selling it at high prices. E.g. Cheaperthandirt hopefully will go out of business when this is over because hopefully the consumers will recognize that they screwed the customers over.

So, for me, enough is actually very low. 2 boxes (20-25 each) of personal defense ammo for each gun I have. e.g. golden saber, hydra-shok, etc... Not the stuff you plink/practice with. This is ammo that a person SHOULD HAVE had on hand since day one of owning a gun. If they didn't, then they obviously had no idea what to do with their gun. For survival purposes, 2 more boxes (50 each pistol and 20 each rifle) for each caliber I have. Also, I include about 1000 round of 22's. (Mixture of sub-velocity, high velocity, HP, magnum, fragmented, etc...) The 22 will be my PRIMARY survival caliber. The other calibers will mostly be for defending what I have. This survival stock has also always been on stock. I don't let this go down. It is put away and stored. So, 2 out of 3 reasons I have a gun are taken care of. That is enough ammo for those 2 purposes to last a life time. LITERALLY. So, the only thing left is plinking, practice, sport, etc... Well, I usually order ammo about twice a year. 500-1000 rounds for each caliber. (Excluding shot gun and rifle). That's about 10-20 boxes. That's 2-4 boxes a month. But, because I have quite a few calibers, that allows for quite a bit of shooting every weekend. And considering the weather, there's quite a few weekends where I don't get to shoot. I had enough on hand that I bought in January (Normal order), to last until June. The only thing I've done differently, is cut back on plicking/practicing in case it takes a little longer to get stocks up again.

Personally, I hope the people who are buying cases of ammo at a time; who aren't those who shoot every weekend; wind up stuck with this ammo. I hope the gougers who buy it all up and try selling it on gunbroker get stuck selling it below their cost. I've already put $1000 aside in my safe at home to buy ammo when the bubble pops. I have the prices set. Should be fun.
 
To say proficient, my wife and I like to shoot 200 rounds (each) per month thru our pistols.

That's 400 rounds a month getting burned up. In only 10 months we will have burned up 4,000 rounds, FOUR CASES, of ammo.

Regardless of your read on the political situation, no one can guarantee me that I will be able to buy and afford ammunition 12 months from now.

So, if I want to buy cases of .38 FMJ should I get lucky and find it for sale, so be it. I'm going to life the tailgate and load it up.

I'm gonna keep buying it. Ya'll can argue till the cows come home about what Obama might or mightl not do or whether I'm a foolish horder.

You keep predicting the future while I prepare for it. :p
 
People can obviously do what they want. It can be because of paranoia or any other reason. Doesn't matter. If the situation comes about where we are either in survival mode or not allowed to have said ammo, then multiple cases of ammo are useless. However, they can be used as trading material. Now for sport, plinking, etc... Yes, it's easy to go through thousands of rounds. But the preparing for the future part doesn't hold water. If you're preparing for survival/defense; thousands of rounds isn't needed. If you're preparing for the future for plinking/sport, then you better be looking at having about 50,000 - 80,000 rounds of assorted ammo. As for staying proficient, I won't even go there. As someone who has assisted police and military qualify on their duty weapons; police generally qualify 2 times a year with their duty weapon and once a year on their personal weapon. And that's just qualifying with 1 box of ammo. Military, depending on their job, was once a year if you carried a weapon. But if a person doesn't feel proficient unless they're shooting a couple of boxes a week, who am I to say differently.

But there is going to be a lot of ammo being sold cheap. Those who shoot a lot won't sell, but they'll realize that financially they didn't do a very good job with their money. For those who don't shoot often and bought a lot; and for those only in it trying to make a fast buck; they are going to get reamed in the bootie. And that's cool. It will be fun when they have to sell their $25-$30 a box ammo that they were stupid enough to buy from rip off places like cheaperthandirt; and are selling it for $15-$20 a box because that's what walmart, dicks, sportsmansguide, and everyone else will be back to selling it for. Definitely fun to watch.

The only thing the current ammo shortage has impared with me is my "Leisure shooting". Plinking, sports, etc... It has no bearing on my survival or defense cache. Because those requirements; even for 20 years into the future; don't require a lot of ammunition. Anyone who thinks they need 5000-10,000 rounds of ammo (Not counting 22's) for survival or defense; has no clue.
 
I think Christcorp said it all extremely well. The only true impact this bubble has had on me personally is his category #3. I would shoot more if I could simply because I enjoy it, not because I fear some catastrophic event. As far as personal defense, I really do shake my head at people who think they need 5000 rounds to fend off some perceived threat to themselves and their neighbors. I truly don't think I will be attacked by Mexican drug cartels or the Russian army or the Sioux Indian nation. Gimme a box of shells for my 357 or 45 or 44 and I will have more than enough for my personal safety. As far as food for survival goes, well if you fear some catastrophe that will limit your ability to eat, sure you might have need for a little bit of ammo now and then. Actually, having 30 lbs of beans and rice will do you more good than 1000 rounds of 9 mm ammo. If you want to supplement your larder with a deer or elk, that's fine, assuming they haven't been wiped out in the first month of this supposed catastrophe. If things were that grim, I would personally be looking at those Hereford crosses grazing next to me. So, maybe a box of shells for my 30-30 would be enough. If I have a box of shells for my other rifles, then that's even better. Maybe a couple boxes of 22 LR to shoot at rabbits and I'd be fine. That's about it. I actually only need about 300 rounds when you total it up for even the worst case.
 
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