The ammo "bubble"

F

FISHNFRANK

New member
What does the current run on ammo have in common with the internet NASDAQ bubble, the housing bubble, the energy bubble and every other economic bubble that we have encountered with this economy in the last 10 years? Everything....

1) Irrational exuberance (or fear) - do you really think the Obama administration is going to ban .38 special ammo, I mean really?

2) Separation from fundementals - the price of raw lead and copper have come down 70% in the last year yet ammo prices are way up? Why? - see point #1

3) A small number of players gaming the the system (stockbrokers, traders = distributors and ammo/gun dealers) - fooling the general population into strongly believing point #1.

My prediction - in 6-12 months all of that hoarded ammo (at high prices) will come flooding back onto the secondary market (glut) at greatly reduced and prices and the folks that paid 35$ for a box of Federal American Eagle .357 magnum are going to feel pretty stupid....(I actually saw that in a local store last week)

BUT REALLY, IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME! Come on folks, smarten up

Frank
 
I agree with your basic concept, i.e. some form of manipulation, and a mob mentality. It's no different than when Yahoo was selling for $400+ a share. I'm one of the lucky ones and can sit out this craziness for at least a year. Now I can spend my time worrying about swine flu.:)
 
There is a lot of speculation going around. I went to Big 5 just to kill some time after work and it looked like locust had eaten all the ammo.....Not a single box of .22lr not even joking! There are still decent prices on bulk ammo, you just have to be patient and look. I have been able to stock pile without going over board on price. Just be smart buy brass cased ammo and start reloading....you cant go wrong.
 
$35 a box for .357 is steep. The Gander Mtn in Amarillo last had .38 spl for $59.99! I didn't make it to the last gunshow, but a box of .380 was seen there marked at over $100/50! I really hope that was some sort of sick joke or protest.
 
The shortage of ammunition on the market is a bubble, based largely upon the results of The Election, and the ammunition makers know it. They would invest in new machinery and hire new employees for their military lines if required, but are happily operating their market lines 24/7 with the same assets they had before The Election. They know we aren't going anywhere. But will COMMERCIAL ammo become a glut on the market because of this bubble? Nope. We are hoarders.

During World War 2, while my father was in Europe, I moved in for a year with his sister and her husband, Uncle Doc, in Pine Bluff, Arkansas. Uncle Doc was a cotton buyer, which meant his relationship with the local farmers was, um, close. That night, as I entered the dining room, I saw a roasted leg of lamb on the table. My knees buckled. Afterwards, as I was unpacking, I opened the closet door in my bedroom to discover that it was almost filled with cases of whiskey and shotshells. Stunned, I realized that my kin were HOARDERS!

I now recognize that Uncle Doc knew what he was doing. Indeed, I profited from it myself. He taught me duck hunting, up Stuttgart way where he had a lease. Good man, and an excellent hoarder.

Cordially, Jack
 
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Some of you all must live in some pretty crappy places when it comes to gouging. Since this whole cluster (****) started, the highest priced ammo I bought were self defense round Golden Sabers and a box of Hydra-Shoks. Each one cost about $21. As of just a few days ago; all others in 50 rounds boxes; I've bought 32auto at walmart for $18. 45acp at walmart for $29.94 for the 100 round value pack; Basically $15 a box. At my local gun store, $18 for 32 auto. Online, $15.25 for 38 specials; $14 for 45acp; $11.25 for 9x18; $16.50 for 357 mag. And all these online prices included shipping/handling. The ONLY place I've seen gouging around here were at a couple gun shows. But it's usually out of state sellers with tables. However; after a couple of hours of Wyoming citizens telling the vendors where they can shove their ammo; they either lower the price or totally take it off the table and sell it at the next show in a different state where people are will to buy the stuff.

On line is a little tough (Not Impossible) to find some ammo because of the horders. But I've had no problem getting ammo at Walmart or local gun shops; except for some of the lessed used ammo which was always short anyway. Sometimes it takes our gun stores a little time to get some more in, but they are just ordering more often. Today; our walmart had sitting on the shelf; 25acp, 32acp, 44mag, 44spl, 45acp, and 9mm. And when I see people buying it, it's generally a couple boxes. There's no limit, but people aren't that bad. Not saying that there isn't some shortages out there, but apparently there are some parts of the country where it's really bad. It's probably a cultural thing. Everyone; well probably everyone; here owns guns. I actually don't know anyone that doesn't have at least a 22lr or a shotgun. I know there are some, but they are rare. And even those who don't have guns respect guns and those who have them. I believe the last stats I saw showed 85% of the population has at least 1 gun. And we've always had ammunition. So I guess we didn't need to buy all the boxes on the shelf. Not when we probably each have about 10 boxes for each caliber at home in a normal month anyway.

Yes, the prices and availability will calm down. Those who are still hording are just paranoid. I'm not saying that Obama Bin Laden, Princess Pelosi, and Prince Reed aren't going to socialize our country more than it is and that they won't go after guns. They might try. But fortunately; our system of government is set up with enough checks and balances in place that they can't just do what they want. And just like the so called "Assault Weapons Bill"; they can be over turned. I have faith in our system. Fortunately; because I don't have faith in some of the people.
 
Who is to say what you need? I have a few autos. I don't need them all but I do because I can and I want to. Our house is much larger than we need. Am I to let another family move into use my empty rooms ? I mean I have 2 bath rooms by golly. Last I checked the was still the USA, a Republic, right? So 2 years ago I could buy 2000 surplus rounds (much cheaper in bulk) and that was not Hording. I have 1000 round 7.62X39 on B.O. from Cabelas. Is that hording. Should I order ony 20 rounds at a time? Just got a case of 8MM Yugo ammo in last month...900 rounds!!! I guess I am a horder.
 
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True MBR ^

But if you only buy what you need this week, You might not be able to find any ammo to shoot next week, next month.

The stage has been set...... just before and after the election, people did panic and go mad hoarding.... that started the ball rolling...... its a big ball and now it just wont stop.....

The good thing, as I see it, is that the 'panic pallet purchasers' have more than likely got 7 pallets of ammo (and no cash) so, they are happy.... What seems to be happening now, is those bulk buyers have slowed right down (except the scalpers) and the market is slowly getting back to more like normal, meaning there is more ammo in the store for longer. I for example, have about 4 months of ammo for my factory gobblers, and have all the components to keep me going for at least 6 months, so therefore, I go to the gunshop, I dont even buy ammo now...... I presume something similar is beginning to happen over there?

I think, in the not too distant future, you will start to see more (of the usual calibers) staying on the shelf longer, then the ammo makers can get onto some of the rare calibers (they do runs of calibers, not 100 thousand of this and 100 thousand of that.... they want to make millions in a run, while the machines are tooled for production)

So, fingers crossed, things will at least get sensible soon :D
 
What does the current run on ammo have in common with the internet NASDAQ bubble, the housing bubble, the energy bubble and every other economic bubble that we have encountered with this economy in the last 10 years? Everything....

1) Irrational exuberance (or fear) - do you really think the Obama administration is going to ban .38 special ammo, I mean really?

2) Separation from fundementals - the price of raw lead and copper have come down 70% in the last year yet ammo prices are way up? Why? - see point #1

3) A small number of players gaming the the system (stockbrokers, traders = distributors and ammo/gun dealers) - fooling the general population into strongly believing point #1.

My prediction - in 6-12 months all of that hoarded ammo (at high prices) will come flooding back onto the secondary market (glut) at greatly reduced and prices and the folks that paid 35$ for a box of Federal American Eagle .357 magnum are going to feel pretty stupid....(I actually saw that in a local store last week)

BUT REALLY, IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME! Come on folks, smarten up

Frank
Click to expand...

What's your point?
 
always begin with a false premise

Sadly, your point #1 about the "irrational" fear is incorrect; there are real, dedicated, consistent efforts being made to disallow the ownership of firearms and ammunition from law-abiding Americans.
So it makes perfect sense that the frenzy will continue until:
-They get their way;
-The current administration forces the issue so hard that they lose;
-The current administration is replaced.

I see no end in sight.........yet.
 
doc540:

I'd rather feel stupid and be stocked up with overpriced ammo than stupid with no ammo.
Click to expand...

Ha Ha Ha

I told you so, and they made a country song about it!:D

It started out, "I told you so" but you had to tell it so. :D

PS: Buy a .380!
 
I still have ammunition I bought while I was in college, nearly 40 years ago. A box of 9mm went for almost $5 a box then. I may or may not need any ammuntion but I don't need to shoot.
 
I realize that no one is holding a gun to my head making me read these ammo shortage threads, but these are getting ridiculous! I agree with the "So what's your point?" comments. Is this supposed to make me feel better about the ammo shortage? I really don't care what some amateur economist thinks the reasons are. Monday morning quarterbacks are a dime a dozen on these forums. Speculation doesn't put rounds in the chamber! All you are doing is guessing and it does not help me find any ammo.

Scott
 
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I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that a certain amount of firearm forum-internet spread hysteria has resulted in panic buying ... :rolleyes:

I had to stop by a gun store yesterday to look for something unrelated. It was pretty busy and I had to stand in line to ask for something I didn't see out on display.

The activity seemed to be focused on firearm sales for the most part. I did notice that there was the usual amount of handgun/rifle/shotgun ammunition out on display as when I stopped by about a year ago. Stacks of boxes on the counter & shelves and cases of ammunition sitting on the floor. Didn't see any pricing listed, nor did I ask about it. I only saw one person buy just ammunition while I was waiting, too, and that was only a couple of single boxes of different handgun calibers.

I did, however, notice some new signs which stated there would be no returns accepted on ammunition sales. Maybe some folks had bought a lot of ammunition and then had some buyer's remorse? ;)
 
I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that a certain amount of firearm forum-internet spread hysteria has resulted in panic buying
Click to expand...
Like this found on another gun forum site...

> Senate Bill SB-2099 will require us to put on our 2009 1040 federal
> tax form all guns that you have or own. It may require fingerprints
> and a tax of $50 per gun.
>
> This bill was introduced on Feb.. 24. This bill will become public
> knowledge 30 days after it is voted into law. This is an amendment to
> the Internal Revenue Act of 1986. This means that the Finance
> Committee can pass this without the Senate voting on it at all.
>
> The full text of the proposed amendment is on the U.S.
> Senate homepage, http://www.senate.gov/ You can find the bill by doing
> a search by the bill number, SB-2099.
>
> You know who to call; I strongly suggest you do. Please send a copy of
> this e-mail to every gun owner you know to help STOP this bill!!
Click to expand...

This is 100% BOGUS!!! Why would someone even post a link and not even follow it to see where it leads? This is why there is panic buying because there are people out there who take EVERYTHING they see on the Internet as gospel truth! Do your homework people. As one branch of the military says (or maybe they all do, I don't know) "In God we trust. Everything else we verify!"

Scott
 
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a few people asked my point....

I thought it was pretty obvious but those who didn't get it must have been the guys in waiting line for the high priced ammo.

Once you get in line to buy anything - you've lost all of your power. Sit back, wait it out, and you'll see a lot lower prices in 6-12 months. Same with all buying panics - they run out of gas and a glut develops. Once that happens, prices come way down as dealers unload excess inventory

As far as guys hoarding ammo for 40 years...I guess you could leave it to your children. They'll be happy when the lawyer reads the will and lets them know they're the proud owner of a couple of cases of 9mm, they won't be able to contain themselves

Frank
 
The sky is falling and the big war of 2008 to 2012

A Rant By Al.40cal

100, 1,000, 10,000 and so on is not enough rounds for one guy. No wonder the Libs and the Dems think we're frigin crazy. If you can buy a million rounds i really don't care how much you have practice makes perfect, that's probably why you want, not need all those rounds because you are just this great enthusiast. Some call it a hobby I'll call it a waste but hey it's your money do as you wish. If you're a cop or armed security then you practice all you want because you're more likely to use your weapon than 3/4's of the people on this site.

And no I'm not bitter just an owner of a few guns and carry one for a living.

Look at my one liners
 
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