Do you have proof that they are making a 3x profit margin over previous market upsets?
Someone please explain to me...........
- Thread starter the45er
- Start date
Double Naught Spy
New member
Based on the lack of people at gun ranges, that ain't happening.
TruthTellers
New member
Based on the calibers people are listing on the sign in sheets those who are going are largely shooting rimfire.
I don't see 9mm being cheaper than $16 a box for another 12-18 months.
Double Naught Spy
New member
But based on the hypothetical projections, you should have a lot more people at your gun range.
8 million new gun owners? - In my extended family there are at least 8 new gun owners in the past year. (For personal protection mainly). - Of these 8, - 3 people, - or 37 1/2% have become 'dedicated' handgun shooters, (2 range trips per week, shooting 3 or 4 boxes of ammo per week.) If these figures were 'averaged' for the country, - well, you can do the math, - I'm going shooting.
The problem with applying "survey" or "study" data is similar to using poll data, in that detailed results are not, and cannot be truly representative in detail, only in overall trends.
there may be 8 million new gun owners out there this past year (2?) but they aren't a homogenous group. In fact, the only thing we know with certainty is that they legally purchased a firearm. Aside from that small fact, we're ALL different and if the batch isn't properly mixed, you don't get a representative sample.
Ask a few dozen or even a few hundred people anything, and then ASSUME their answer is valid for millions of people? Sure, the news does it all the time, people make a living doing it. Politicians do it. Doesn't mean its accurate, only that its popular and SOMETIMES represents the majority of opinions.
You got 8 new gun owners in your family and 3 of them became shooters, that's great. I got zero (0) new gun owners in my family though several guns were purchased. No NEW enthusiasts, either.
Also don't forget that those 8 million "new" guns include ALL guns, a sizable percentage of which ae going to be rifles and shotguns that don't "go to the range" twice a month, or even once (particualry during the winter) and a good chunk of the handguns don't either. A lot of people, first time buyers are buying "just in case" and may only shoot one box of ammo OR LESS, ever.
Also, if you're trying to use those numbers to figure future ammo demand, do remember that there are also a lot of guns that are still "under the radar" and don't show up in official counts, but their owners buy ammo, too.
My "crystal ball" has turned black, with a white circle and a large number 8 on it. Lately, when I ask it a question the usual result is "answer uncertain ask again later..."
there may be 8 million new gun owners out there this past year (2?) but they aren't a homogenous group. In fact, the only thing we know with certainty is that they legally purchased a firearm. Aside from that small fact, we're ALL different and if the batch isn't properly mixed, you don't get a representative sample.
Ask a few dozen or even a few hundred people anything, and then ASSUME their answer is valid for millions of people? Sure, the news does it all the time, people make a living doing it. Politicians do it. Doesn't mean its accurate, only that its popular and SOMETIMES represents the majority of opinions.
You got 8 new gun owners in your family and 3 of them became shooters, that's great. I got zero (0) new gun owners in my family though several guns were purchased. No NEW enthusiasts, either.
Also don't forget that those 8 million "new" guns include ALL guns, a sizable percentage of which ae going to be rifles and shotguns that don't "go to the range" twice a month, or even once (particualry during the winter) and a good chunk of the handguns don't either. A lot of people, first time buyers are buying "just in case" and may only shoot one box of ammo OR LESS, ever.
Also, if you're trying to use those numbers to figure future ammo demand, do remember that there are also a lot of guns that are still "under the radar" and don't show up in official counts, but their owners buy ammo, too.
My "crystal ball" has turned black, with a white circle and a large number 8 on it. Lately, when I ask it a question the usual result is "answer uncertain ask again later..."
Double Naught Spy
New member
They aren't.
Considering that most gun owners that buy a gun for self defense (supposedly the root of most recent purchases) and then go to the range once or twice and satisfy themselves that they can shoot the gun and that is about it, I don't see where recent gun buyers will be different, particularly with how expensive ammo currently is.
I worked too many CHL classes where people were renewing licenses that had not shot since the last time they qualified to believe that 37.5% of new shooters are shooting twice a week, every week at the range.
I'm beginning to see a few small startups that sell branded reloads. I CRINGE when I hear the sales speak of their people and what they claim. One thing I hear frequently "All of our reloads are once fired brass..." I haven't yet challenged that as there is zero proof any reload ever is bona fide once fired brass. Once fired is nonsense anyway - Matters more the quality of the brass than how many times it's been fired. Winchester works well through 20+ reloads. Blazer isn't good ever.
I attended a gun show yesterday and one thing that DEEPLY troubled me were sellers selling reloads in zip-lock baggies at $40 for 50 rounds.... SERIOUSLY doubt the sellers in question have ever been licensed to do ammunition manufacturing.
Crime is going up. Law enforcement and first responder personnel are going down in headcount. We aren't anywhere near the end of the pandemic and are just coming into climate change - both of which will result in the massive migration of people around our country and the world.... Having lived through the aftermath of Katrina in the south - I doubt we've seen anything yet... It'll get worse before it can get better.
Normal isn't coming back any time soon. Abnormal society means increase in irrationality which leads to increased gun sales and so on. The shortages aren't likely to drop off any time real soon.
I'm just happy I bought enough when all things were cheaper..... and have the means to make more.
I attended a gun show yesterday and one thing that DEEPLY troubled me were sellers selling reloads in zip-lock baggies at $40 for 50 rounds.... SERIOUSLY doubt the sellers in question have ever been licensed to do ammunition manufacturing.
Crime is going up. Law enforcement and first responder personnel are going down in headcount. We aren't anywhere near the end of the pandemic and are just coming into climate change - both of which will result in the massive migration of people around our country and the world.... Having lived through the aftermath of Katrina in the south - I doubt we've seen anything yet... It'll get worse before it can get better.
Normal isn't coming back any time soon. Abnormal society means increase in irrationality which leads to increased gun sales and so on. The shortages aren't likely to drop off any time real soon.
I'm just happy I bought enough when all things were cheaper..... and have the means to make more.
I can think of at least a couple of dozen "friends" that are not shooters and have not bought a firearm and likely never will. One couple has expressed interest and I'm doing all I can to edumacate them.
That said, most of my friends and all of my family are, and carry. Funny how that works.
That said, most of my friends and all of my family are, and carry. Funny how that works.
My range is an outdoor range; all 15 yards slots were full at noon and were mostly filled when I left 2 hours later; several folks doing mag dumps. Range retail store has ammo, mostly regional brands made in Alabama. Prices aren't like they were, but then they have ammo where BASS, Academy, and Walmart do not.
2wheelwander
New member
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...guns-citys-firearms-store-LA-crime-soars.html
?ONE? gun store in Beverly Hills? They're having a bang up 2021.
Pun intended
?ONE? gun store in Beverly Hills? They're having a bang up 2021.
Pun intended
Double Naught Spy
New member
As far as the ammunition 'shortage' goes, one thing that I have noticed in recent months is that everybody and their dog is now a dealer in ammo. I get 'friend requests 3-5 times a week from said vendors, all different.
Have we discussed "Just In Time" manufacturing yet?
I mentioned Olin's Oxford Mississippi manufacturing plant earlier. If I remember the article I read it was only marginally bigger than the plant it replaced, 90,000 Sq. feet to 100,000 or something like that.
I Don't Know This but I'd be willing to bet they filled up that space quick.
Manufacturing space and warehouse space cost money. When I worked for Synthes their goal was to completely turn the inventory in their warehouse every thirty days. They didn't want a big stock sitting on their shelves because that's just like having money you can't use.
I know I've said this before but why enlarge your manufacturing space just to have it sit idle and cost money? Why fill up your warehouse with product that isn't going to move? Especially if you're buying your raw materials and paying your labor at today's rates and the bottom falls out?
I mentioned Olin's Oxford Mississippi manufacturing plant earlier. If I remember the article I read it was only marginally bigger than the plant it replaced, 90,000 Sq. feet to 100,000 or something like that.
I Don't Know This but I'd be willing to bet they filled up that space quick.
Manufacturing space and warehouse space cost money. When I worked for Synthes their goal was to completely turn the inventory in their warehouse every thirty days. They didn't want a big stock sitting on their shelves because that's just like having money you can't use.
I know I've said this before but why enlarge your manufacturing space just to have it sit idle and cost money? Why fill up your warehouse with product that isn't going to move? Especially if you're buying your raw materials and paying your labor at today's rates and the bottom falls out?
I would bet that the new plant, even though only slightly larger, is likely laid out far more efficiently and with much more space alocated to production as opposed to storage/office/etc. I would also bet that finished product is shipped out as fast as feasible.
In manufacturing, its often a "pay me now" or "pay later" situation. Most of the nation has gone over to the "just in time" model, which makes sense from a bean counter point of view, you don't have money tied up and being "wasted" in stock on hand material inventory and space to hold it.
The down side is, that this requires a regular and dependable supply of materials. This past couple years has show us that our supply chain, from origins through delivery is easily interrupted or even broken down, and that leaves manufacturers stuck, when they run out of a critical part or material and cannot produce their product without it.
Sure, they saved money when things were good, but when things turn sour, their saving money by not having their own inventory reserve leaves them unable to produce their product and make ANY money.
Even when there's a high market demand, if you can't make product to sell your business is at a stand still, but your bills keep on coming!
Can't expand production if you're struggling to stay solvent, and even if you aren't if you can't get all the parts or materials you need, expanding production only costs money for zero return. and most folks would consider that bad business.
The down side is, that this requires a regular and dependable supply of materials. This past couple years has show us that our supply chain, from origins through delivery is easily interrupted or even broken down, and that leaves manufacturers stuck, when they run out of a critical part or material and cannot produce their product without it.
Sure, they saved money when things were good, but when things turn sour, their saving money by not having their own inventory reserve leaves them unable to produce their product and make ANY money.
Even when there's a high market demand, if you can't make product to sell your business is at a stand still, but your bills keep on coming!
Can't expand production if you're struggling to stay solvent, and even if you aren't if you can't get all the parts or materials you need, expanding production only costs money for zero return. and most folks would consider that bad business.
The "new" plant is about 10 years old. I can't find how old the East Alton plant was but I'd bet 50 years old. So I'm sure the new one was significantly up dated.
ETA The East Alton plant was opened in 1892.
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Doesn't work well for ammunition manufacturing.
They typically forecast demand and make runs of various calibers that they expect to last until the next scheduled run of that caliber. Each run involves shutting down the line, setting it up for the new caliber and then going through the process again for the next run. During the shutdown time they are not making ammo and therefore are losing money. So the whole system is designed to maximize run time.
Most of the time they spend making their biggest sellers.
Constantly shutting down to reset the line to make small batches for "just in time" type approach would be a very inefficient approach which would result in them having more downtime and also would result in them making less ammo.
stagpanther
New member
That model works--as long as they assume everyone is willing to settle for a ford model T painted black.
and are just coming into climate change
oh man, now I understand why there's such a shortage!
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079MLP7DN/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Seriously, there are a lot of good suppositions, hypotheses and reasoning supplied here for why we're experiencing the ammo and ammo component shortages we are. This thread should demonstrate the complexity of the issue. All I know is that fewer people are shooting and yet I still can't find primers! LOL
oh man, now I understand why there's such a shortage!
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079MLP7DN/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Seriously, there are a lot of good suppositions, hypotheses and reasoning supplied here for why we're experiencing the ammo and ammo component shortages we are. This thread should demonstrate the complexity of the issue. All I know is that fewer people are shooting and yet I still can't find primers! LOL