Someone please explain to me...........

T

the45er

New member
............why there is nothing nefarious going on in the ammunition industry that is keeping super inflated prices and ridiculous shortages from occurring? Primers have been 3-4 times what the were pre-COVID for several years now if you can find them. I was at Wal-Mart yesterday and saw 330 22 l.r. shells for $40!!

Yes, everything is inflated, but 200+%. Nah, something is going on beyond normal to perpetuate these conditions in the shooting world. You can buy guns now at not-to-inflated prices but why do that when you can't afford or find the ammo to shoot in them!
 
8 million new gun owners. (I think I read that recently) … that’s a huge increase of potential users of ammo.
 
Primers have been 3-4 times what the were pre-COVID for several years now if you can find them.
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Components will stay high until the ammo shortage eases. The ammo companies are going to prioritize their own production over providing components for handloaders.
...something is going on beyond normal to perpetuate these conditions in the shooting world...
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Of course. There is much higher than normal demand and it is keeping supplies low and prices high, just as one would expect it to.

It's going to stay that way until one or both of the following happens:

1. The demand goes back to normal.

2. The ammo companies decide that the demand is going to stay this high, and invest in additional manufacturing capacity.
 
Primers have been 3-4 times what the were pre-COVID for several years now...
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That's interesting. pre-Covid for the US would be Jan 2020 for the first case, so <2 years and even then things didn't get hinky for a while.

Nah, something is going on beyond normal to perpetuate these conditions in the shooting world.
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Beyond normal for a pandemic? How many pandemics have you experienced?
 
Many issues have caused the shortages. Number one, as mentioned, new gun owners, even those that voted for Biden, go figure. Number two, people hoard ammunition and primers when available at inflated prices. Number three, ammunition manufacturers produce ammunition to keep up with demand rather than sell components. Number four, some primer production is located overseas, so shipping problems have contributed to their availability. Simple right?
 
Yeah but............

EVERYTHING is at a shortage - we all recognize that. Overseas products hung up on ships anchored offshore. 8 million new gun owners. I've heard that and believe it. Went from 10 billion rounds per year to 14 billion or something like that and yes, ammo manufacturers are going to use primers in loaded ammo before selling them to reloaders. Yeah, I understand all that. Heard it and believe it all has impact on production. But, I can't think if too many things that are inflated 200-300% over prices 2-3 years ago. New cars are up and used cars are too. Groceries - 20% higher. Beef - high, but you still don't pay $36/pound for ribeyes. Wood rose 30-40% at its highest and while still inflated, it is coming back down.

Maybe simple market economics are truly the reason for the ammo/reloading component situation, but I just have a question in the back of my mind about it all. Seems there's been enough time to ramp up to meet demand a little better than what we're seeing. Maybe not, but it's still a question.

Merry Christmas to you all. Stay safe out there.
 
Seems there's been enough time to ramp up to meet demand a little better than what we're seeing. Maybe not, but it's still a question.
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"ramping up" production isn't as simple as many people think it is. Look at just the basics, you need capital, space, VERY specialized machinery (which I don't think the ammo companies manufacture themselves) an increased, TRAINED workforce, all the needed govt permits and approvals, AND you need an increased supply of the raw materials.

And, on top of that, you need executives (and stockholders) willing to gamble that the demand today will remain constant long enough to not only justify the expenses of expanding production, but will also provide them with a profit after increased production comes online, and not leave them with a huge loss if/when demand drops.

It could be just corporate greed keeping production low so they make the most money possible, or it could be real world business considerations that people outside the industry have little or no awareness of....

While I won't deny the former certainly exists, I think the latter is playing the largest part in our current situation.
 
Seems there's been enough time to ramp up to meet demand a little better than what we're seeing. Maybe not, but it's still a question.
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They failed to do it for Obama's first election. They failed to do it for Obama's second election. They failed to do it when things were looking sketchy before Trump's election. They failed to do it for Biden's election. And now there are all the shortages from the pandemic and so how are they going to ramp up when they can't even get the stuff or people they need?

The ammo industry doesn't seem to invest a lot of money into manufacturing to cover short term shortages (as proven repeatedly) and has opted to just ride it out over and over again when supplies and labor were plentiful. No doubt they figure it is more cost effective NOT to store massive amounts of materials on hand (either pre production or post production) to handle such shortages. Capital investments in machinery and facilities is expensive if only used part of the time. Storage of supplies or finished product also costs a lot of money.
 
"2. The ammo companies decide that the demand is going to stay this high, and invest in additional manufacturing capacity."

Why should they? They are raking it in with the facilities they have now. They are raking it in. There is no point in them investing in additional manufacturing capacity when they are reaping the huge profits with the way it is.
 
As long as people buy at the high prices the prices won't come down. It's how the free market system works.
 
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There is no point in them investing in additional manufacturing capacity when they are reaping the huge profits with the way it is.
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Not only that, there is a strong incentive to not over-build in terms of manufacturing capacity. They can't risk the possibility of demand dropping too much before the expense of the expansion is recouped.
 
8 million new gun owners. (I think I read that recently) … that’s a huge increase of potential users of ammo.
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I have seen no increase in the number of shooters at the range; you?
If anything, fewer people are shooting due to ammo prices/availability.
 
RickB said:
I have seen no increase in the number of shooters at the range; you?
If anything, fewer people are shooting due to ammo prices/availability.
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Very few at my range. I've tapered off myself probably down to about 1/3 my usual dose of shooting; thanks, Joe.
 
I have seen no increase in the number of shooters at the range; you?
If anything, fewer people are shooting due to ammo prices/availability.
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A lot of people are buying ammo right now because they're worried they might not be able to get any when they need it if they don't buy what they can get right now. That kind of panic is usually what starts these shortages in the first place--and what keeps them going once they start.

People get worried that ammo is going to be banned, or that there's some conspiracy to cut back how much ammo goes to the civilian market and so they go buy up a bunch of it.

That exact motivation also explains why those people are disinclined to shoot up the ammo they are able to buy.

There's a LOT of ammo being bought. Not so much being shot up at the range.
 
Keep in mind if you assume 8 million new gun owners and assume they ONLY bought a gun for defense and will ONLY throw it in the sock drawer with the ONE box of ammo they bought.

That’s 8 million additional boxes of ammo the market never intended to sell. That’s a lot of catching up to do.

Now let’s assume at large number of these folks bought TWO boxes of ammo one to save one to try the new gun. That number jumps quite a bit.

Now let’s assume a small portion of those folks decide to become hobby shooters or train regularly. Again that ammo number increases even further. I have noticed far more new shooters at ranges then experience folks as of late.

It’s a poo show to be sure but one that is perfectly explainable and sadly will be some time before it settles back into normal and I don’t think that normal will be the same as pre COVID.
 
The motherlodes of copper in mines has all but gone. They'll need more R&D to get the copper out of the ground.

Here in Maryland...copper if selling at $2.20 a pound (a month ago) at the metal recycling center.

Plus: All the electric cars and windmill generator industries are putting copper in high demand --- Mainly due to all the copper wiring the units incorporate.
 
There is more to the entire environment than "8 million new gun owners". ["The firearms industry trade group reported late last week its latest dealer survey found 3.2 million first-time buyers were created in the first half of 2021. That's after it estimated there were 8.4 million first-time buyers in 2020 based on its previous survey dated Sept 17, 2021." See link here: https://thereload.com/newsletter-mi...stry trade group,based on its previous survey. ]

Thats 11.6 million new gun owner in the past 24 months. Think about that.

There are numerous entire categories of reasons WHY there are 11.6 million new gun owners to consider as well. Some of the more salient categories include:

Civil Unrest - rioting over various issues to include politics - to include particularly election year rioting, Covid-response government mandates and lock-downs, US economy-related issues, and various sociological issues to include Black Lives Matter and police-officer shootings of criminals, as well as broader perceived inequality.

Spikes in Violent Crime - particularly crime in cities that embrace reduction of prosecution for certain categories of crime, downgrading of sentencing laws and bail requirements, and defunding of law enforcement agencies' budgets.

Generalized increases in social agitation, aggravation, and violent responses to encounters as demonstrated by significant increases in violent episodes on board aircraft in the US, road rage incidents, crimes against subway riders in urban centers, and interpersonal encounters that turn violent in statistically significant numbers.

Add to this the recognition that 2022 is going to involve midterm elections in a highly polarized and politicized landscape, and these elections will be followed by the start of various presidential campaigns of contenders for both Democratic and Republican tickets in 2024, and the propensity for social violence and unrest is only likely to increase, not decrease, over the next 12 to 24 months.

The reasons for Americans to feel heightened concern for their own safety and well-being is what is driving the acquisition of handguns by 11.6 million new gun owners, and those causes are only likely to increase in scope and scale over the next year.

I don't expect ammunition availability and pricing to come down for another two years -- unless, as noted above, somehow supply is greatly increased to meet significantly higher levels of demand.
 
With the fear they peddle over the new variant, I can only imagine it is going to perpetuate things even further. I don't know about you boys and girls... But I am sick and tired of not being able to just go pick up a box of shells and go to the range at will. Or that the online suppliers are like scalpers at a rock show!!
 
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