Ron Paul: why he could win.

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And did Buchanan win the nomination?
Where were his numbers nationally?

To save you the trouble, he had far better numbers than Paul nationally and STILL didn't win the nomination.
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Good point. The nomination is the key. Many of RP's supporters are Dems who cannot vote in the primary. That will be the linchpin of this effort.

By the way, I submit that Buchanan is the second reason (behind Ross Perot) that HW lost the general. You're not supposed to challenge an incumbent in a primary for prez. Doing so caused HW to spend campaign money to beat him, and also hurt him by challenging him in debates, weakening him in the eyes of conservs.
 
By the way, I submit that Buchanan is the second reason (behind Ross Perot) that HW lost the general.
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So you blame the symptoms - namely these challenges from the right - for the disease of RINOism and betrayal of core constituencies?

Paul doesn't have to win the nomination to have an influence on the direction and future of the Republican party and its adherence to its basic principles of individual liberty, personal responsibility, and limited government.
 
So you blame the symptoms - namely these challenges from the right - for the disease of RINOism and betrayal of core constituencies?
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Blame is the wrong word. I partially attribute HW's loss to Buchanan's challenge. Now that you mention it, HW's less than conservative behavior also contributed to his loss.

I'm on your side here. I'm just offering some extra analysis.

Paul doesn't have to win the nomination to have an influence on the direction and future of the Republican party and its adherence to its basic principles of individual liberty, personal responsibility, and limited government.
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I hope you're right. But who else would take up his mantle after (if) he loses? Who else has such a flawless track record and statesman-like belief system? Each time a Rudy McRomney gets elected, the country slides further into the abyss of statism.
 
Paul doesn't have to win the nomination to have an influence on the direction and future of the Republican party and its adherence to its basic principles of individual liberty, personal responsibility, and limited government.
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I don't think so. The republican base is made up primarily of those people that continually boo Paul at the debates. Rather it will be the 8 years of democratic control of congress and the executive branch, as well as the judicial appointments that will be made that will change the direction and future of the republican party.

Unfortunately it will take more than a few decades to return to today's status quo by undoing what the dems will do in only a few years.

Of course if it means my great great great great grandkids will have a good republican party than I'm all for it:rolleyes:
 
Looking a little further down the road, many people who are today considered great conservative leaders were apolitical youths, until they ran across a guy named Barry Goldwater, who got them interested for the first time in the conservative viewpoint. Goldwater lost big.

Or did he?
 
Stage2,
What makes you think that Ron Paul's Independent and Democratic supporters "can't" vote for him in the primaries?

Also, my math sucks :o
I'm projecting that Ron Paul will surpass Giuliani's 3rd quarter haul at 8:00 EST.
 
Ron Paul is now the official single quarter Republican bread-winner.
$10,259,000 as of 7:36 EST.

Fireworks-02-june.gif


And of course the big money bomb isn't going to drop until the 16th.

Also, the blimp is scheduled to make it's maiden flight on the 10th from Elizabeth City, NC.
 
Cool. With all that money, should he be humiliated if he doesn't win (or even place in the top three) in your home state?
 
Thumper,
Nah. He doesn't have to place within the top 3 in my state to generate headlines. All he has to do is better than the media expects. Of course, if he does place within the top 3 that's probably enough to catapult him into the nomination. Especially with NH following scant days later.
/hate the game, not the playa :cool:
 
I would never "hate the playa."

Seriously, what chance do you give Ron Paul to win the nomination? Give me a percentage.
 
A "percentage"?? What do I look like, a bookie? :confused:

I've said repeatedly that nobody knows how this is going to turn out. That includes me.
If you want odds, check sportsbook.
They've got him running 4:1 nationally right now.

Rudy Giuliani 9-5

John McCain 5-2

Mitt Romney 5-2

Fred Thompson 7-2

Ron Paul 4-1

Mike Huckabee 7-1

Newt Gingrich 10-1

Chuck Hagel 40-1

Tom Tancredo 50-1
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Having said that, Paul has the support, cash, and organization to win. Not sayin' that he *will*, just that he can.
 
Stage2,
What makes you think that Ron Paul's Independent and Democratic supporters "can't" vote for him in the primaries?
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Because in the states that matter people need to be registered republican, and there just aren't that many people who are so drawn to Paul that will be bothered enough to switch.

The bottom line is that Paul does not have the support of the republican base. Right or wrong, thats the plain truth. You can't win the nomination without the support of the base.

Whoever he picks up from across the aisle or from the outer reaches of space won't even begin to make up the difference of the loss that he has suffered from not gaining the base.

I don't believe in new math or fuzzy math. This is just regular old math and Paul doesn't have the necessary support to win.
 
Because in the states that matter people need to be registered republican,...
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Please support this statement.

...and there just aren't that many people who are so drawn to Paul that will be bothered enough to switch.
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This one too.

The bottom line is that Paul does not have the support of the republican base
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What the heck...this one too.

Seems to me that your argument is on very shaky ground.
 
The bottom line is that Paul does not have the support of the republican base
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The truth is that the "base" has not yet decided who it will support.

Right now, the "base" is not where the current poll leader (Giuliani) is getting his support.
 
Seems to me that your argument is on very shaky ground.
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Not really. Everything I've brought up is historically factual. Only a minority of states have open primaries. There has never been a substantial amount of people that have switched party affiliation to make any difference in any campaign. And most importantly, there hasn't been anyone recently who never broke 5% in the national polls to ever win a nomination.

Now maybe, just maybe the stars will align and Paul will break every political record known to man. It could happen, and I could also win the lottery tomorrow.

But since reality is well, reality, this won't happen, and I'll collect money from every Paul supporter that put fantasy ahead of fact. I guess to your credit you weren't willing to blow your money like some other were.
 
Well, considering that by most measures we are worse off today than back then, id say yes, he lost big.
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So the legacy of activists Goldwater left behind haven't helped a bit, and we would have been better off with some go-along-to-get-along nominee who did not inspire new people to pursue limited govt ideas?

Seriously, try to think about that question outside the context of Ron Paul's run for President.
 
Stage2,
Goes to show how inaccurate your view of "reality" is.

Point #1 Most closed primary states are allowing people to register at the polls this year. And since you never defined "the states that matter", let me remind you that right now there's 5 of 'em. Iowa (registration at the door), New Hampshire(registration at the door), North Carolina (one stop absentee voting for late registrees), Michigan (open primary), and Nevada (20 days left to register).

Point #2 The volunteers have been working nationwide to get people registered throughout the year. Nobody knows how many new Republicans are on the list this year, but it's safe to surmise that people who are donating their time and money aren't going to suddenly find themselves too disinterested to register.

Point #3 Perhaps the problem lies in your picture of the "Republican base". For instance, in my state even most Republicans are against the war.
Your "Republican base" agrees more with Pat Buchanan than George W Bush.

never broke 5% in the national polls
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And not that your broken-record act about national random polling is relavant, but this statement is false too.
 
Goes to show how inaccurate your view of "reality" is.
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Slow down a little, there, goslash.

Listen, I don't know about others, but for me it's just a little fun to yank the chain of someone with so much emotional investment in a candidate.

As long as Ron Paul sticks to his word that he won't run once losing the nomination, I have no problem with him.
 
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