One Shot Stops Database

[Brian Pfleuger]

Wouldn't it make since to look at police shootings?

I'd like to see that. Do you have access to one? Access is largely the problem. Also, a police database would give us mostly information about a select few cartridges. Mostly, 40acp, 223, and 12ga and, from the olden days, 357. There are certainly more cartridges than that used by police but they are substantially more rare than these. The 40 and 357 would really be the only useful numbers to civilians, IMO. We pretty well know what a 12ga and 223 does to a human target.

 

[nate45]

These are, largely, if not entirely, civilian shootings.

NO, they are not.

For instance the .357 'data' is almost entirely law enforcement shootings.

These are the shooting available to the authors for study.

Marshall and Sanow tout the fact that they had access to police and police department records.

I always wonder if many of the people who discuss this have actually ever killed anything or observed gunshot wounds in person. Those of us who have know for certain that there are no magic .45 or .357 bullets that can drop someone 96 + % of the time with a random torso hit, for other that psychological reasons.

I rarely if ever see any regular posters from the hunting forum on this site wondering if a puny little pistol bullet has the power to 'drop' someone if it doesn't hit their CNS.

Read this 1989 FBI report on Handgun Wounding Factors and Effectiveness then you will realize that there is no physiological reason for a bullet that does not strike the CNS to immediately incapacitate someone. Even if the heart or major blood vessels are hit 20% of blood volume must be lost to cause incapacitation.

Each shooting is a unique event, how one person reacted does not determine how another might.

 

[Brian Pfleuger]

Those of us who have know for certain that there are no magic .45 or .357 bullets that can drop someone 96 + % of the time with a random torso hit, for other that psychological reasons.

I have killed many, many animals with several varieties of firearms and arrows also. I personally don't take this data as "one shot KILL" I take it as one shot STOP. The BG can be hit in the arm. If they stop, it's a one shot stop. There's a big difference between animal targets and people targets. People know what a gun is and know what it does. Animals know "danger". People react psychologically, animals do not, therefore, the psychological aspect is important in stopping human targets.

Does a 380acp lack a psychological impact that a 357mag has? I don't know. The big shiny revolver alone may stop some people that the little 380 auto will not.

For instance the .357 'data' is almost entirely law enforcement shootings.

Most of the rest civilian, like I said, with the exception of the "police calibers". Police use 40, 357, 12ga, 223, occasionally a couple others. The rest is civilian.

I find the hard core vitriol about this data almost as amusing as the Glock haters tirades. Don't like it, don't believe it? Fine. I'm not sure I believe most of it or that it particularly matters either way but I am amused by the people who are hell bent on convincing others that it's crap, like they have some sort of personal stake in the opinions, which I can't imagine that anyone would.

At the very least, this data represents a piece of the puzzle. Keep what works, discard what doesn't. Eventually, with enough data we learn something.

 

[nate45]

At the very least, this data represents a piece of the puzzle. Keep what works, discard what doesn't. Eventually, with enough data we learn something.

If you are interested in shooting data I posted some actual shooting data right on this page. Remember?

...the CHP, the largest agency to issue .357 Mag 125 gr JHP’s on the West Coast, clearly reports significantly better results in their officer involved shootings since switching to .40 S&W 180 gr JHP loadings, based on officer perception, objective crime scene measurements, as well as the physiological damage described in the relevant autopsy studies.

CHP thats the California Highway Patrol.

Does a 380acp lack a psychological impact that a 357mag has? I don't know. The big shiny revolver alone may stop some people that the little 380 auto will not.

I don't know and no one else does either. Psycological reasons can not be counted on to stop someone and vary from person to person. One person might faint at the sight of a .22, another might absorb a whole magazine of .45 ACP and still hit you in the head with a hatchet.

Read the FBI report I supplied a link to, if you don't want to here is its conclusion.

CONCLUSIONS

Physiologically, no caliber or bullet is certain to incapacitate any individual unless the brain is hit. Psychologically, some individuals can be incapacitated by minor or small caliber wounds. Those individuals who are stimulated by fear, adrenaline, drugs, alcohol, and/or sheer will and survival determination may not be incapacitated even if mortally wounded.

The will to survive and to fight despite horrific damage to the body is commonplace on the battlefield, and on the street. Barring a hit to the brain, the only way to force incapacitation is to cause sufficient blood loss that the subject can no longer function, and that takes time. Even if the heart is instantly destroyed, there is sufficient oxygen in the brain to support full and complete voluntary action for 10-15 seconds.

Kinetic energy does not wound. Temporary cavity does not wound. The much discussed "shock" of bullet impact is a fable and "knock down" power is a myth. The critical element is penetration. The bullet must pass through the large, blood bearing organs and be of sufficient diameter to promote rapid bleeding. Penetration less than 12 inches is too little, and, in the words of two of the participants in the 1987 Wound Ballistics Workshop, "too little penetration will get you killed." Given desirable and reliable penetration, the only way to increase bullet effectiveness is to increase the severity of the wound by increasing the size of hole made by the bullet. Any bullet which will not penetrate through vital organs from less than optimal angles is not acceptable. Of those that will penetrate, the edge is always with the bigger bullet.

Keep what works, discard what doesn't. Eventually, with enough data we learn something.

We already have enough data, we have had for 20+ years. There are no magic bullets and every shooting is a unique event.

 

[Socrates]

Everybody has an angle. Look at the S&M data as an add for Federal Magic bullets, and you get the general idea.

Look at the data for some of this stuff, like Winchester 30 carbine, and it gets the BS Meter going off the scale.

A .357 is now more effective then a .30 Caliber rifle?
Come on...So, a .357 federal is better then a .30 caliber rifle 115 SP going 2200-2400 fps?:barf::barf:

The FBI was trying to sell the 10MM at the time that was written, and move away from revolvers. They had to justify an incredible increase in
ammo costs, going from lead revolver rounds to jacketed semi-auto rounds, and new guns. Also, I think that was right after the Platt shooting, where 38's didn't penetrate enough...

 

[Sparks2112]

A .357 is now more effective then a .30 Caliber rifle?
Come on...So, a .357 federal is better then a .30 caliber rifle 115 SP going 2200-2400 fps?

Why would it not be? a .30 carbine doesn't fragment, doesn't tumble, doesn't expand much. It pokes roughly a .30-.45 caliber hole through someone. Placement is key, not a big enough sampling source, etc... etc... blah blah blah.

 

[nate45]

Why would it not be?

So are you saying that a .357 125 grain HP bullet at 1450 fps is more effective and does more damage than a .30 caliber 115 grain SP (Soft Point) at 2200-2400 fps?

Placement is key, not a big enough sampling source, etc... etc... blah blah blah.

What exactly does this mean? Are you saying that shot placement is not the key to handgun effectiveness? If you are why don't you enlighten us to what is?

 

[Brian Pfleuger]

If I had to choose to be shot with a .357mag hollow point or a .30 cal rifle solid, I'd pick the 30cal. Now, if it was JHP vs JHP I'd rather take the 357. All things considered, I'd prefer to stay away from either.

 

[Socrates]

http://www.handloads.com/misc/stoppingpower.asp?Caliber=21&Weight=All
JSP IS AN EXPANDING BULLET, AND, AT THAT WEIGHT, IT WILL EITHER EXPAND, OR TUMBLE

OK: so, a 30-30 rifle, with a .308" caliber bullet, moving about 2500 fps, is LESS effective then a .357" with a 125 grain bullet, at about 1450 fps???:barf:

The .357 is more effective, with 12" of penetration, pretty much on average, vs. a .308" bullet that expands, and puts two big holes in it's target, not really slowing down much?

WOW!
I didn't realize I had a magic gun in my .357" that is more powerful, or at least more likely for a one shot stop then a 30-30 rifle? AND, my magic 357 is only 2% less effective then a .308 RIFLE!!! And, did you know that ALL 308 shootings were done using Match ammo, or military ball, except for Federal's TBBC, which is actually 2% less effective then the Match ammo these guys are all using?
NOW FOR THE MOST AMAZING STAT: If the guy with the .308 uses Federals TBBC ammo, my .357 now is 1% more likely to have a one shot stop then a .308 RIFLE.
So, where did the stats come from? SWAT snipers?

There is another sort of common sense approach to this.

A one shot stop is most likely to occur when the target is head shot. Head shots are difficult, and, that would explain the high percentage of one shot stops with .357.

Another explanation is MANY of those 357 one shot stops are police officers, off duty, using 357 snubs, at night. The flash bang, at close range, might seriously add to the one shot stop effectiveness.

The bottom line is this: rifles are rifles, MOST pistols are pistols.

.308" caliber rifles have a long history of being VERY effective in a couple World Wars, and, on just about everything else. The .357 magnum does NOT have that history, experience, and reputation, except in the imaginations of a few folks.

So, given a choice, take the RIFLE.

 

[Sparks2112]

Since I know where this is headed, I will just say that I was trying to illustrate all of this had been discussed, and that shot placement is the ONLY consideration once you reach a certain caliber (I.E. one's that penetrate 12 inches or more).

I've shot a .30 carbine a lot, and have talked to people who've actually USED THEM IN COMBAT. They were not impressed, and though I've never shot at someone with one it wouldn't be my first choice either. I will take a rifle platform for it's accuracy any day, BUT, if I had the choice of the same platform chambered in either .357 or 30 carbine I'd take the .357. That's just me.

 

[nate45]

I will just say that I was trying to illustrate all of this had been discussed, and that shot placement is the ONLY consideration once you reach a certain caliber (I.E. one's that penetrate 12 inches or more).

I've shot a .30 carbine a lot, and have talked to people who've actually USED THEM IN COMBAT.

OK, sorry I misunderstood you and I agree the FMJ 110 grain .30 Carbine is not very good.

 

[Socrates]

Wasn't a discussion of ball ammo. Point is made that 357 in a RIFLE, will push a 110 grain bullet 2400 fps, and the .30 carbine only 2100 fps.

I stand corrected on the .357 loads these guys are using. If the ammo is loaded to max specs, with a 125 grain bullet, Hodgon says with 296, and a few others, you can move an XTP 1966 fps. Now, in that case, I agree, I'll go with the .357, if you can find a handgun that shoots 2000 fps, with a 125 grain bullet, in 357.

The current Federal 357 magnum doesn't even come in a 110 grain bullet. They use a 125 or 130 grain bullet, rated at 1440 fps.

I suppose one could argue that in the old days, when .357 was .357, it WAS that good a stopper, since it was pretty much a rifle round in a handgun, flat shooting, hits hard...

Federal offers Rifle ammo in 357 that moves a 180 grain bullet at 1550 fps, which is just starting to show the actual potential of fully loaded ammunition in this cartridge.

Here's Double Taps loads:
This loading makes the .357 Magnum perform like it should!
Velocity is from a 4" bbl and there is virtually no muzzle flash.
For those of you who prefer a wheelgun, this might be the most
effective loading available for defense.

Velocity: 1600fps / 4" Ruger GP-100
1425fps / 1 7/8" S&W
1750fps / 6"bbl S&W 686

Bullet: Speer Gold Dot

Muzzle Energy: 710 ft. lbs.

http://www.buffalobore.com/ammunition/default.htm#357



1. 3 inch S&W J frame

a. Item 19A/20-180gr. Hard cast LFN = 1302 fps
b. Item 19B/20-170gr. JHC (jacketed hollow cavity) = 1299 fps
c. Item 19C/20-158gr. Speer Uni Core = 1398 fps
d. Item 19D/20-125gr. Speer Uni Core = 1476 fps

2. 4 inch S&W L frame Mt. Gun

a. Item 19A/20-180gr. Hard cast LFN = 1375 fps
b. Item 19B/20-170gr JHC = 1411 fps
c. Item 19C/20-158gr. Speer Uni Core = 1485 fps
d. Item 19D/20-125gr. Speer Uni Core = 1603 fps

3. 5 inch S&W model 27

a. Item 19A/20-180gr. Hard Cast =1398 fps
b. Item 19B/20-170gr. JHC = 1380 fps
c. Item 19C/20-158gr. Speer Uni Core = 1457 fps
d. Item 19D/20-125gr. Speer Uni Core = 1543 fps

4. 6 inch Ruger GP 100

a. Item 19D/20-125gr. Speer Uni Core = 1707 fps

5. 18.5 inch Marlin 1894

a. Item 19A/20-180gr. Hard Cast = 1851 fps
b. Item 19B/20-170gr. JHC = 1860 fps
c. Item 19C/20-158gr. Speer Uni Core = 2153 fps---- Can you believe this?!!!
d. Item 19D/20-125gr. Speer Uni Core = 2298 fps---- Or this?!!!

 

[Larry Spencer]

Hey Peetzakilla,

I was the guy that posted the link that is the subject of this thread, a few days ago. Although I think arguing over what round is better, is a waste of time, I thought it was a good illustration that deserved a post in a thread that was first comparing the .22LR with the .25auto, and then the .38/9mm size rounds.

Boy.. was I was wasting my time!

The .25auto guy came back with something like this:

"Since the .25auto had more total stops than the .38spl, that proves it is a better self-defense round than the .38spl."

Can't argue with that kind of logic, can you?!


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[Stevie-Ray]

Well, I like how my preferred carry load ranks. Tied for the #1 spot in handgun loads. (.45ACP 230gr HS) Nice expansion also.

 

[Brian Pfleuger]

Hey Peetzakilla,

I was the guy that posted the link that is the subject of this thread, a few days ago. Although I think arguing over what round is better, is a waste of time, I thought it was a good illustration that deserved a post in a thread that was first comparing the .22LR with the .25auto, and then the .38/9mm size rounds.

Boy.. was I was wasting my time!

Hey, if you start a thread with any thought besides "Well, I've got some time to waste..." then you're, hm,... wasting time I guess.... I don't even know what I just said.

 

[Sarge]

If you look at the results of these and other studies, and compare that data to what you actually see in the field, on the streets and in the morgue; eventually you come around to the notion that a few standard rounds have been doing an awful lot of very efficient killing for an awful long time.

Yes, I know we're talking about 'stops' here but if you 'stop' some thing or some body with a cartridge that accomplishes it with vigor, then that stop is likely to be of a permanent nature.

When shot moderately well, the 30-30, .45 Auto and .357 have proven efffective for literally decades and long before high-tech bullets were available for any of them. They knock a good sized hole, all the way through 200+ pound live targets. The .40 has been a success for the same reason.

In fact, about the only way to screw up any of them is to use too light a bullet in them, or water them down in an effort to make them easy in the shooter.

 

[Socrates]

Yes, and it's really nice to know that my .357 snubby is the equal of a .308 rifle, with matchgrade bullets...

I agree with you Sarge, but, none of the basis for my agreement has anything to do with that garbage posted as 'data'....

 

[AZAK]

"Since the .25auto had more total stops than the .38spl, that proves it is a better self-defense round than the .38spl."

emphasis by AZAK
Actual quote was:

Using the numbers from this reference, more "one shot stops" were made using .25acp then .38 special. While the percentage was higher for the .38 special, the actual number of stops was higher for the .25acp.

Which was the entire quote/posting in that reply. #162 Would you feel safe carrying a .25 ACP pistol in your pocket?

No mention of proving anything.

 

[JohnKSa]

I suppose one could argue that in the old days, when .357 was .357, it WAS that good a stopper, since it was pretty much a rifle round in a handgun, flat shooting, hits hard...

In the old days manufacturers tested for velocity in a 15+ inch non-vented barrel and published those results without caveat. In addition, the fact that there were virtually NO chronographs in private hands no doubt made them feel free to "round" the velocity figures up a bit as well.

Today revolver rounds are typically tested for velocity in 4" vented test barrels and anyone can own a chronograph to double-check the published numbers if they're willing to shell out $70.

The last test I saw comparing several types of vintage ammo to modern stuff indicated that the velocities were essentially identical. That test didn't include products from any of the "boutique" manufacturers who are putting out pistol ammunition in selected calibers that outperforms (in terms of velocity) anything that was available back in the "good old days".

 

[Larry Spencer]

Guess ole Massad Ayoob is right:
"A .25 is a nice thing to have when you don't have a gun."


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