Marshall/Sanow study

I think it was Fairbairn who said in connection with handgun effectiveness, that the more he learned, the less sure he was about it.

Why does somebody say "research"? If what Marshall wasn't research, what was it? The data base or the source of information on which to do research will always be limited, too. If you're ever going to get anywhere with something like this, you start by working with what is available to you, even when someone else more privileged may have even more or something different. And eventually you are forced to make a conclusion or to call the whole thing off. It isn't exactly theoretical science, it is a practical thing.

I've owned handguns since I was about 19 or 20 but it was a long time before I owned a .45. So I've never especially thought of myself as a big bore kind of person, yet I own one now. I can't give a convincing argument on the logic of owning one but it is kind of comforting to have one. It doesn't increase my skill level or my eyesight. But someone here says that a car with more horsepower, if it really even has any more, isn't any better. It's all in the skill of the driver. If he said anything else that was true, it fell apart with that statement. I've only owned one V-8 in my life (so far) and I'm absolutely certain it was quicker and faster than any of the 4 or 5 (yes, 5) cylinder cars I've owned. So all other things being equal, bigger is better, unless mileage is important.

I can't believe I said that.
 
My own two cents: There have been documented cases over the years of "failure to stop" with just about every handgun caliber there is. Heck, if you read "Guns, Bullets, And Gunfights" by Jim Cirillo you'll see that sometimes even long guns can have less than ideal results. Sometimes, a well placed shot with a .45 just isn't enough and more is required. Bottom line: There are no guarantees. I try to not chase my tail over what round has the most "stopping power" when fired from my pistol. I think it's best to pick your caliber of choice, find whatever JHP round works reliably in it, stick with it, and then concentrate on training. Specifically, training in both tactics and marksmanship. Don't expect your adversary to necessarily drop after one well-placed shot. He may have body armor, be on drugs, or be just plain mean [like Michael Platt of the FBI Miami incident]. Just one guy's opinion.
 
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Sometimes, a well placed shot with a .45 just isn't enough and more is required. Bottom line: There are no guarantees. I try to not chase my tail over what round has the most "stopping power" when fired from my pistol. I think it's best to pick your caliber of choice, find whatever JHP round works reliably in it, stick with it, and then concentrate on training. Specifically, training in both tactics and marksmanship. Don't expect your adversary to necessarily drop after one well-placed shot. He may have body armor, be on drugs, or just plain mean [like Michael Platt of the FBI Miami incident]. Just one guy's opinion.

You sir, are one of several people who know exactly what they are talking about. Well-said and very true.

~LT
 
LordTio: Well, lots of folks [including my wife!] might well disagree with you there, but nonetheless, thank you very much for the compliment. I've enjoyed your postings as well. :)
 
But someone here says that a car with more horsepower, if it really even has any more, isn't any better. It's all in the skill of the driver. If he said anything else that was true, it fell apart with that statement. I've only owned one V-8 in my life (so far) and I'm absolutely certain it was quicker and faster than any of the 4 or 5 (yes, 5) cylinder cars I've owned. So all other things being equal, bigger is better, unless mileage is important.

I can't believe I said that.

I can't believe you said that either. Well, actually I can, since many people do what you did and cause a lot of arguments. It is apparent you didn't read the statement, or didn't understand it. Reread the part where I spoke of identical cars with one minor difference and get back to me. Half of my family is made up of mechanics and drag racers, so try to tell me a new muffler and pipe system is gonna do anything...:rolleyes:

Who's credibility just fell apart?
 
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I have a buddy...

... who just traded in a Maserati on a Rausch 427 Mustang last year. He'd raced the Maserati at Sebring, and decided he didn't need to pay that much for brake and parts replacement after each race.

My buddy used to be a professional race driver, driving open cockpit in F2000 for Marlborough, in the UK. In his hands, the Maserati and now the Rausch can do amazing things.

In my hands, I'd probably go into the first curve with too much speed, and end up on the wall.

More horsepower can accomplish great things, in the hands of a person who can control it and use it.

More horsepower in other hands just adds to the odds of things going other than optimally.

I can controll a .45acp very well in rapid fire. I can shoot it well with either hand. Give me a .454 Casull, and all bets are off. (The first shot will probably be ok, but...)

I'll get the best results in a car that I'm familiar with, and that doesn't throw more power at me than I can handle.

Similarly, I'll get the best results in a handgun platform I'm familiar with, that doesn't throw more recoil, blast, and other distractors at me that are likely to undermine my performance.
 
The Stopping Power books should be found under the "fictional" book titles..


Funny how the M&S studies almost perfectly correlates with the Strassbourg Goat tests.. :rolleyes:
(which was probably a hoax as well)

I have quotes from them [M&S] claiming that the Federal 230gr JHP Hydra-Shok gets 100% one-shot stops when used from 5" barrel lengths.. :rolleyes:

Evan Marshall and Edwin Sanow are mostly responsible for making the greatly exaggerated claim that the 125gr SJHP .357 Magum is capable of 96% one-shot stops in over 1000 shootings they "investigated" that was published in nearly every popular gun magazine prior to the internet.. :rolleyes:


Their questionable junk-science techniques have created tons of misinformation about terminal ballistics and what works best for stopping human threats using a handgun. They have changed their methodology and formulas enough times to raise red flags to anyone studied in Terminal Ballistics 101.

One seriously flawed method M&S uses in "predicting" handgun stopping power is by using calibrated ballistics gelatin and some nonsensical formula they made up by using a simple calculation of the bullet energy and depth of bullet penetration▬with 8.4" to 9.8" being ideal bullet penetration, and 450-640 ft. lbs of energy being ideal. Anything over 640ft.Lbs ME is considered a waste! Google 'Fuller Index' or Fuller Index Chart for a good laugh.

According to M&S the best handgun cartridges to use for stopping human threats are pre-fragmented rounds made by Glaser Safety Slug and Magsafe. I bet they endorse Extreme Shock ammo as well.. :rolleyes:

I can't believe anybody actually still takes this Handgun Stopping Power rubbish seriously anymore. All they are trying to do is profit from the gun community by selling those lousy books.

M&S if you are reading this, i want my money back for those three books i bought!

~Rampant Colt
 
I just read something from Clint Smith that goes along with this discussion quite well "This is not scientific-besides most scientific stuff is wrong anyways-this is just the truth" He wasn't talking about M&S but I think it sure fits.
 
Webley, the cavitation is almost identical in displacement between common SD rounds. We've all seen the picture of the gel tests comparing the 9mm up to the .45 (including the 10mm as a joke sometimes).

Yes, you're right. There really isn't all that much difference between the popular service calibers (which I've said in other threads before and is one of the reasons that I think the 9mm vs. .45 debates are stupid). However, I'm not necessarily talking about just the popular service calibers. If you compare one of the service calibers like say .40 S&W to a small caliber like .32 ACP, you'll get very different types of performance. Likewise, if you compare that same service caliber to something like a .44 Magnum you'll get different performance. Consider the following:

http://www.brassfetcher.com/Speer240grainJHP.html

http://www.brassfetcher.com/180gr%20Winchester%20Ranger%20JHP.html

http://www.brassfetcher.com/9x19mm147grGoldenSaber.html

http://www.brassfetcher.com/230%20grain%20+P%20Winchester%20Ranger%20JHP.html

In particular, notice this from the .44 Magnum test:

"Temporary cavitation from this round broke the wooden board that the block was sitting on, into two pieces lengthwise."

Because the .44 Magnum was the only handgun bullet that was able to do that, it is only logical to conclude that the .44 Magnum produced a significantly larger temporary cavity than the 9mm, .40 S&W, or .45 ACP.

Beyond that, it doesn't do all that much to aid in incapacitation itself, especially when considering poor placement, until you get into very fast-moving rounds, like rifle rounds, where it can cause much greater damage. Of course, it does add damage regardless, as I've said previously, but not a whole lot. Much of the stronger tissues in the body will not give as easily, and much of it will not be damaged beyond minimally. This is assuming the round passes close by the organ, not into it. When the round strikes the organ, the cavitation is the very least of the problem. Cavitation effects from a .22 LR pistol and a .44 Mag pistol will differ...no question. Assuming you made a clean shot to a vital area, the placement of that bullet is going to be the stopping factor, not the side-effect (cavitation). Assuming you shoot a non-vital area, that cavitation difference itself is not enough to shut the body down any faster. It comes down to shot placement in these cases, once again.

It depends on what the bullet hits and the circumstances in which it happens. Take the example you mentioned earlier of the man that was shot in the head with a .40 S&W. You said that he lost his sight but survived which leads me to believe that either a) the bullet did not actually hit the brain but rather the optic nerves or b) hit an area of the brain that is involved in sight such as the occipital lobe. If we assume that b is what happened and that the bullet did indeed impact the brain, then it is relatively safe to say that the bullet did not cause a great deal of temporary cavitation. If it had, brain tissue would have been compressed to the point that it would've likely been forced down through the foramen magnum which in turn would have likely caused hemorrhage of the brainstem which would cause instantaneous incapacitation and death.

Also, with regards to your example of a shot through the heart. The heart is a rather resilient organ and penetrating trauma to it is not guaranteed to be instantaneously incapacitating. While it is true that cardiac muscle is tough and elastic, the tricuspid, bicuspid, semilunar, and mitral valves as well as the chordae tendineae are not as I mentioned earlier.

Also, a smaller diameter projectile that creates a larger temporary cavity such as a .357 Magnum is more likely to cause a cardiac tamponade than a larger diameter projectile that creates a smaller temporary cavity like a .45 ACP. The reason for this is that the pericardium can more easily seal the smaller diameter hole, but the larger temporary cavity is more likely to rupture the capillaries on the surface of the heart. A cardiac tamponade is, by definition, a condition in which the pericardium becomes filled with fluid that cannot escape and therefore creates pressure on the heart leading to ineffective pumping, shock, and if untreated death.

In your examples, you mention the cavitation effect when striking the organ. The key part of your discussion is a properly-placed shot (since it actually strikes the organ, causing damage/destruction). Cavitation may or may not have the effects you listed (impossible to say with certainty), but even so, it will be present with all rounds fired. Between a 9mm and a .40, what difference do you really think you will see?

I'm referring to the effects of temporary cavitation in a shot that penetrates a vital organ. Most organs can be displaced enough from the outside that temporary cavitation from a near miss will not cause significant injury. I'm not talking about injury from bullets that don't hit a vital structure but rather the extent of damage from bullets that do.

Also, I don't think that you will see that much difference between a shot from a .40 S&W and one from a 9mm. However, I do think that you may see a significant difference between a shot from a 9mm and a .44 Magnum or between a shot from a .32 ACP and a .40 S&W.

A big thing is variability in the body. Someone in the world may fall to side effects of a bullet, as I'm sure some have. But, that is the exception, rather than the rule.

Is bigger better? Sure; you get more margin of error. Is faster better? Sure. Cavitation effect is a function of velocity. Is it enough difference between the commonly-used self-defense rounds to give a clear advantage? No. Is the difference enough between a .22 LR and a .454 Casull? I'm sure it is.

That's the brunt of the point I've been trying to make all along. Temporary cavitation is a poor substitute for proper placement and adequate penetration. As I'm sure nearly everyone would agree, a good shot with a .22 beats a bad shot with a .44 Magnum. However, I maintain that temporary cavity is not completely insignificant and that it can, under the right circumstances, have a significant effect in wounding. For this reason, I cannot understand why someone would choose a cartridge or loading with less energy over one with more unless a factor such as penetration, shootability (and therefore accuracy), or practicality of platform would have to be sacrificed in order to do so.

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So if a solid hit to a vital organ is all that is needed, why are some cartridges decidedly better than others?
Decidedly by whom? A bunch of gun writers and shooting instructors? It is NOT 'decidedly so' by anyone who has actually had to treat these wounds. The thing is they all are equal as stoppers. None better, none worse...it is decided by shot placement and not caliber, when speaking of defensive handgun rounds.

Again, you assume that I'm limiting the discussion to common service calibers. I have yet to see any credible expert who claims that a .22 Long Rifle is equally effective to a 9mm. Yes, some cartridges are decidedly better than others, its just that the comparisons aren't limited to the cartridges you think they are.

The only reason many feel it is possible that these rounds can actually be ranked is because they read books on the subject, written by people who are not qualified to do such ranking.

They read, but did not fully understand, books that were written by people who did not fully understand their findings. The problem is that people want to base their decisions on part of the information contained in the M&S studies, FBI reports, Thompson-LaGarde tests, or just about any other work on handgun wounding without understanding how and why the results were what they were.

To use the car analogy, it's like when people compare an E30 BMW M3 to an E30 325iS. At face value, the M3 would seem to be the superior car because is generates more horsepower (192 vs. 168) and has a better 0-60 time with a higher top end. What many people don't understand is that the M3 generates it's peak horsepower at much higher RPM's than the 325iS does and that the midrange acceleration of the 325iS is actually better due to its flatter power curve. While it is true that the M3 is a better race car, the 325iS is a better road car but someone who simply looks at the specs without understanding them doesn't know it.

That, and the "tall tales" told over the years giving some rounds legendary status for all the wrong reasons. Of course, we didn't know any better back then. We didn't use aids, such as CT/MRI, to image soft tissue damage, wound tracts, etc.

And some of the true "junk science" of yesteryear like the Thompson-LaGarde tests of 1904 which can't really tell of much of anything other than the fact that neither Thompson nor LaGarde knew how to run any sort of scientific experiment.
 
I had no trouble with the M&S books, they were what they said they were: an analysis of handgun shootings by police officers based on available information, not a theoretical forecast based on shooting through denim into jello. Because of reports like these handgun ammo has improved radically in the past 20 years. I find no use for an FBI report that is 20 years old and based on old ammo types.

Since these books were published many police chiefs have prohibited police officers from send out information on shootings because of liability if that PD were using what turned out to be crap ammunition in actual use (as opposed to the dog and pony jello shows put on by the manufacturers). Remember General Curtis LeMay bought into the AR-15 based on a public watermelon shoot.
 
I found the shooting stories interesting.

There was one statement that I agreed with, and that is they stated a handgun was inferior to rifles and shotguns in terms of stopping power. I can believe that.
 
One seriously flawed method M&S uses in "predicting" handgun stopping power is by using calibrated ballistics gelatin and some nonsensical formula they made up by using a simple calculation of the bullet energy and depth of bullet penetration▬............

I think you've misinterpretated the process. By discovering how bullets perform on the street FIRST, one can then shoot them into jello and measure expansion, penetration, crush and stretch cavities and measure the volume, etc.

What I found interesting is that bullets that performed similarly in jello, performed similarly on the street. While definitions of what constitutes a one shot stop are as varied as those who make them up, I believe that bullets can be compared with each other and a rating system determined that's valid no matter what definitions one uses to measure the effectiveness.

When only a few shootings were used to get the OSS, the % was listed. What's wrong with that. Don't recall claims that the stats would hold up after multiple shootings.

I haven't, so far, run across a site, who's average members are as well mannored, respectful, and know what they're talking about as those on Evans board. That includes Evan.:cool:
 
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Glad i kicked this up, actually, but I STILL don't know of anyone who has done a similar study.Real world shooting stats are , to me, the most important measure of a combat pistol caliber's effectiveness.It's M/S's opponents who find the onus on them to do a like study b4 they can **** on M/S's results.
 
M&S authored 3 books the first of which was "Handgun Stopping Power: The Definitive Study"published in 1992, that was 19 years ago. This was followed by "Street Stoppers: The Latest Stopping Power Street Results" that same year, '92. The last book was "Stopping Power: A Practical Analysis of the Latest Handgun Ammunition" which showed up in 2001. There have also been many articles written by them over the years.

The raw material for the books and articles was gathered at first by Evan Marshall who drew on the files of the Detroit Police Dept. where he worked and on interviews and examinations from emergency room techs, morgue attendants, medical examinations and reports from around the country where he traveled as a gun writer. He got some interviews from the shooters as well as some of the people who were shot. Over the following years they both gathered more shooting results and opinions from other sources as well. It was never based only on the reports from police shootings. They never revealed to anyone else who and where the reports came from. (This was quite different from the may serious studies done by the military and law enforcement that were submitted to peer review where anyone else could see the good as well as the errors and learn from it.)

Their work and opinions were a part of the swell of debate that occurred in the justice dept., the military, and law enforcement in the 80s and 90s around handgun and long gun ammunition. M&S were outside of the scientific and law enforcement community but were a part of the debate anyways. They made a contribution but then they made a major error.

Had they stopped with the gathering of information and trying to draw conclusions from that and encourage that approach along side others they would have been fine. But they didn't stop there.

The error was the "One Shot Stop" and the percentages formulas. It was M&S who came up with the OSS concept and the statistics that went with it and those have been the cause of a good deal of mis-information and mis-understanding ever since. As they were gun writers their mistakes had a large impact on those who read gun mags and followed internet forums.

They developed a hard and fast criteria for what OSS are. Some who claim that M&Ss statistics are valid don't know apparently, that M&S never varied on their idea of what a OSS stop was. They invented the concept.

There statistics of course have little to no meaning. As it was they who advanced the statistics they had the responsibility to explain them and defend them and prove them valid. But they could not do this.

They have explained many times that the only way to properly use their statistics is as a way of selecting a bullet type for a specific caliber. For example...if you want to shoot the .38 Spl. look to their material as an aid in selecting the most effective .38 Spl. bullet from a certain manufacturer. They explain that the information is not useful in deciding on what caliber to use defensively. They say this but then say or imply the opposite a sentence or so later.

This is why alot of folks say that the 125 gr. load of the .357 Magnum is the "King of the One Shot Stops" and other mistakes along that line.

There is a lot of useful material in their books. But the OSS statistics have little precise meaning and that is the heart of what makes M&S rep.

tipoc
 
I suppose my reading of this thread is too fast because I still haven't figured out what those who think the M&S publications are worthless recommend themselves or why. And perhaps comparisons with cars is worthless too.
 
As simple as I can make it

BlueTrain said:
I still haven't figured out what those who think the M&S publications are worthless recommend themselves or why.

Each shooting is a unique event. Past incidents give no guaratee of how future ones will transpire, or of the outcome.

There are no magic bullets.

All of the service cartridges (from 9mm Luger to .45 ACP) are capable of working for SD. As long as they use reliably expanding projectiles, that penetrate 12-16 inches in ballistic gelatin.

BlueTrain said:
And perhaps comparisons with cars is worthless too.

We do compare them, by testing their expansion and penetration in ballistic gelatin.
 
They also test cars by running them into concrete barriers.

Some writers in the past could be very dismissive about cartridges that didn't fit their standard of, well, standard. If it was more powerful than a .45 auto, it was referred to as a "freak." And if it was much less powerful than a .45 auto, it was useless as a military cartridge. Yet a different line of thinking stated in so many words that while something might be marginally useful as a military cartridge, if you couldn't hunt deer with it, then it was largely useless as a cartridge.

I can't really argue with any of those opinions.
 
19 pages vs 3 volumes

"I suppose my reading of this thread is too fast because I still haven't figured out what those who think the M&S publications are worthless recommend themselves or why."

My Answer: M&S adds a level of mystery and intangibility to ammo / caliber selection criteria. I recommend take the mystery out of it by educating oneself on how a handgun actually physiologically incapacitates a threat (CNS Disruption and or sufficient blood loss). embracing the basic concept that deeper holes better are better than shallow, bigger better than smaller and many better than few.
select an ammo/caliber/firearm with consideration to the above criteria that you are comfortable with and practice .

My basic philosophy is to go as big bore as you can comfortably. Small bullets sometimes expand but big bullets never shrink. I look at the FBI protocol. Getting the biggest bullet I can deep enough into the threat and repeat is my simple way of looking at it.
If you can carry, conceal and shoot a .380 good that's better than the .45 that you left at home.
If you can carry, conceal and shoot a 38 special or a 9 mm.. better
If you can carry, conceal and shoot a .40 cal better yet.
If you can carry, conceal and shoot a .45 acp, .45 long colt, .44 special your are getting to the practical top end of what can be expected from a handgun.

All with good ammo that has shown to penetrate (a must) and expand (great but second to penetration)

the attached read is short but I think it makes alot of sense. its only 19 pages but I look here rather than M&S
http://www.firearmstactical.com/pdf/fbi-hwfe.pdf
 
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"And some of the true "junk science" of yesteryear like the Thompson-LaGarde tests of 1904 which can't really tell of much of anything other than the fact that neither Thompson nor LaGarde knew how to run any sort of scientific experiment."

I wouldn't judge Thompson and La Garde too harshly.

Essentially, with their tests, as scanty as they might have been, they were the first to try to quantify this sort of information in anything even remotely resembling a standardized way.

Also, at the time, ballistics wasn't even approached as a science as we understand it today.

Finally, neither Thompson or La Garde were scientists, and more importantly, neither were attempting to create a scientifically valid set of experiments. Even had they been, what kind of testing media would they have used in 1904 that would have given the kind of terminal performance data that we today understand is viable?

What they were attempting to do was get a handle on military reports from the Philippines which indicated that the .38 Long Colt cartridge simply wasn't up to snuff as a combat round in a way that seemed to be the most practical that didn't involve either going back to war with a trunk full of different guns. Or worse.
 
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