Marshall-Sanow OSS Data: Undeniable Evidence of Fraud

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I go there every so often - Good information.
I have always had some misgivings on the MS data... I think I may find my misgivings were indeed valid.

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"A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity." - Sigmund Freud
RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
 
Shawn does show a lot of, aaah, passion for this subject, but that's probably because he feels people's lives may be at stake.

Collecting bad data or using data badly doesn't constitute fraud, at least if it is done in ignorance. Rational, justifiable estimates aren't fraud either, IF their presence is admitted to and their basis is explained. However, knowingly making up data is fraud in anyone's book.

As an industrial statistician and statistics journal associate editor I've seen my share of poor data analyses, but never a deliberate case of fraud. I look forward to Nov. 1 so we can see what the evidence is.

It's kind of cool to find a topic that combines profession (statistics) with hobby (pistols).
 
I don't know why people get so worked up over the MS data, anyhow. Even if it is completely accurate, it is not predictive of anything. To select for analysis only those subjects shot a single time, when the usual response to a failure to stop is to shoot again, yields an exceedingly skewed data set. Since the data isn't predictive of anything, I see no point in spending a great deal of effort to discredit it.

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TB., NC
rosie.acmecity.com/bebe/6/index.html



[This message has been edited by Tim Burke (edited October 22, 1999).]
 
If only everyone were as rational as yourself,Tim, then the MS charts would not be so "respected" by the masses. The fact is, they do prove nothing. They are a bastardization of science. They account for so few of the variables present in a shooting and the data is clearly skewed, possibly in favor of certain brands. The only way that they could even hope to have any viable outcome with so many variables present would be to have thousands and thousands of shootings for evey single bullet weight and brand, so that all the variables could hope to be overcome by sheer nubers of incidents. They are a prime example of a couple of uneducated people delving into a field that they know nothing about (statistical science) and trying to make charts for everyone. The blind leading the blind. Gun shop idiots and armchair commandos respect the charts because it was made by one of their ilk. The charts are like brain-candy for the masses: no thinking required, just look at the simple chart and pick the ammo at the top. Don't think about how the data was collected or what variables were present and how it could be flawed, and you can't read any opposing viewpoints because they publish no data to scrutinize. For the average shooter, this makes for a very simple chart that looks neat, but is chock full of holes to anyone that knows anything about science or statistics.

Maybe some companies payed to have their ammo represented favorably? Because they refuse to publish data, no one knows. But on top of that, as you said, even if the charts are accurate, they account for so few variables and leave out so many possiblities that they are meaningless.

The problem is, most people do not understand the true scientific method and proper data-gathering methods for accurate statistics. Personally, I believe that their "charts" are an insult to science and statistics, a disservice to the world of self-defense with a handgun, and I believe that there are deaths in this world that rest on their shoulders.
The fact is, they are publishing charts that ignorant people look at to determine what ammo to carry. If they are publishing flawed data, fraudulant claims, and poorly concluded hypotheses, then they are irresponsibly (or possibly fraudulently) getting people killed when those trusting people pull the trigger, expecting their magic bullet to have a %95 chance of physically stopping ther assailent with one shot anywhere to the torso.


Sorry for the rant, but I am a bit infuriated by this insult to science. I have no axe to grind on what bullets work best or anything like that, but I do get a bit ticked-off when I see the misuse of scientific methods presented to the masses that don't know any better. And, I am not belittling "the masses", but just saying that they are "ignorant" (in the dictionary definition of the word) of strict scientific methods and satistics through no fault of their own, but simply because they are not specialized in that area.
M&S (mostly Sanow) should leave wounding ballistics to the professionals and statistics-gathering to the scientifically inclined. Either that, or they could simply publish their data and have it scrutinized by professionals so that they can refine their technique and produce some viable charts. With some advise from some professionals in statistical gathering, and science, they could refine their charts and with a lot of work, they could actually make something that was worth looking at. Their intentions and ideas appeared worthy, but their execution is pitiful. If they took their ideas and got some advise on how to execute their research properly, they might be able to make a decent chart. It may not even resemble the original, but at least it would be worth reading. Then again, I am assuming that they really had intent to make accurate charts.
 
Seven Nazi's with seven rounds, Audie Murphy?
1911 45acp.

Look why the 45acp was developed in the first place "something about drugged out moro tribesmen" with taunt lines tied about their body so they wouldnt bleed out before being able to kill the person who for all practicle purposes had all ready killed them.

Red, it's a good thing the Original Nazi's are gone for they would have found out with absolute certainty which was best stopper with your method described below.

"The only way that they could even hope to have any viable outcome with so many variables present would be to have thousands and thousands of shootings for evey single bullet weight and brand, so that all the variables could hope to be overcome by sheer nubers of incidents".


They all fall to 45 Hard ball!
Shot the rest, have the best. Sorry 10mm, had to use it.


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The beauty of the second Amendment is that it is not needed until they try to take it. T JEFFERSON

[This message has been edited by oberkommando (edited October 23, 1999).]
 
All-
I've hardly been reticent to offer my own guffaws about M&S "studies" or "Strasbourg". That's becuase I hate junk science and I can't stand pencil pushers making load decisions for *real* cops on such "data".

Shawn's site and Fackler's work, like TFL, have no hidden agenda. They are not selling anything. They only attempt to get people to think critically, rather than relying onself-appointed experts. We all have this capacity, though most prefer not to use it. ;)

I look forward to 11/1 and am grateful for the "head's up".
Rich
 
Guys, I believe the smart/proper thing to do, is Wait Till November 1st.

I mean, whats the point of turning this thread into a MS Bash-a-thon? Don't get me wrong, I don't like the OSS stats anymore than the next guy, but why lower your level of maturity on thier account? Especially when they are going to be proved false in a less than 10 days anyway.

Now, I am fairly new to guns, so If I am missing out on why people view this as thier perfect time to take shots at M&S, then please fill me in.

Sincerely,
Adam

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Self improvement is a hobby of mine :)
 
Many years ago a vandal smuggled a small rifle into the St. Louis zoo and shot an elephant in the chest with one round of .22 short; the pachyderm passed on...over a week later. I have a police training film that shows a lady bartender who was instantly killed by one round of .25 automatic hardballl to the chest. So much for statistics when it comes to a shooting! If we could rely on stats, (look at what the .22 short and .25 acp will do) we'd only have to pack a single shot derringer in .22 short. (That seems to be the caliber of the offhand statistical studies, as well.)
 
Adam-
People don't take pot shots at M&S. They take issue with the authors' claims, methodology and facts....which have never added up.

I believe Shawn intends to prove this by simple means of addition and subtraction. It seems some bright non-scientist has taken a hard look at the data provided in the '88. '92 and '96 books by M&S. Since the data from '88 to '92 to '96 is cummulative, one can deduce the number of one shot events and one shot stops in each period by simple subtraction.

The results are quite astonishing: in the case of about 18 bullets, we find better than 100% effectiveness for some rounds in a given four year period and less than 0% effectiveness for others. IOW, during a given study period, M&S data would indicate 5 bad guys downed by 3 bullets. Conversely, if M&S are to be believed, we find less bad guys downed from a given bullet during '88-'96 (for instance), than from '88-92....an arithmetic impossibility.

Sorry if I've stolen any of you fire, Shawn. I eagerly await November 1. Should be better than Christmas morning!
Rich
 
Rich:

No problem with stealing my thunder. (I expected the story to break before I had a chance to publish, plus it's not my thunder to steal.) I promised that I'd wait until November 1 so that IWBA members worldwide would receive their copy of the Journal before I publish this story on the web site.

I'm also performing a similar analysis of the data in Marshall's 1998 NRA American Guardian article (Marshall, Evan: "One Shot Stop." American Guardian 2(2), 2/98; pp. 32-35, 59-60). I've found a few discrepancies there also.

I don't view any of this with glee. I'm personally shocked and saddened at the evidence. The proof appears to confirm what everyone's suspected all along, that the data are untrue. Statistical analyses have confirmed this, however the evidence has been beyond the comprehension of ordinary people. The evidence presented is easy to understand by anyone with a high school education, and that what makes it so elegant.

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/s/ Shawn Dodson
Firearms Tactical Institute
http://www.firearmstactical.com



[This message has been edited by Shawn Dodson (edited October 25, 1999).]
 
Putting all the data and potential results aside, what really turns me off to Mr. Dodson's comments and parts of the websight in question is the seeming unprofessionalism the prevails. While the message and info may be correct, the method in which it is presented in "unscientific". One cannot expect to make advances in an argument by stepping on the adversary's neck. Let the data do that.

Just a short time ago in our history, if you called someone a liar, or desired to humiliate them publically, those were fightin' words. It seems to be a shame this aspect of our culture no longer exists.

I too will log on Nov. 1. I just hope we are not called to see the gnat against the moonless night sky. We should be demanding equal time for those individuals who may have a differing approach or result.



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"By His stripes we are healed..."

PeterGunn
 
Well, here's my 2 cents...

A few years ago, I made ammo selections based on the M/S "data." I took what they put out as gospel, because hey, it was based on "street results." It wasn't until I found the Firearms Tactical web site and read the wound ballistics information there that I changed my mind. As strange as it may sound, it was difficult to change my beliefs. With such faulty information being sold, and LE agencies actually using that information, well you'd think they'd be a bit more responsible.

Anyways, I've always found Shawn's info direct and to the point and if anyone doesn't like his style, well, you can't beat the content.

A little addendum. I read an article by Peter Kokalis once, where he refuted a lot fo the M/S data. I was shocked, so I emailed someone I really respected at the time, Massad Ayoob. I received a curt reply from his daughter Dorothy, which said "Marshall and Sanow are right, Kokalis is wrong." It reminds me of something Dr. Fackler referred to as the "dead certain tone of the con-man."

Chuck
 
I just went to the firearmstactical website and the new info is posted. I have to admit that it not easy to understand. I'm not sure which camp I want to pitch my tent in, but it is nice to have an opposing view. As a closet scientist I do have a problem with M&S's non-adherance to the scientific method. For the record, my 92FS is loaded with 147g Remington Golden Sabers. Ooooh... 147 grainers!

[This message has been edited by Xyzzy (edited November 01, 1999).]
 
Xyzzy-
The info is really simple to understand if we take the time to study it. I admit, I had to wade thru it and, at first, thought it complicated. Then I realized how lazy we've become with our expectations of being spoon fed in simple terms.

On second read, you'll find that the author makes his points in simple addition/subtraction terms. M&S have a bunch of 'splaining to do.
Rich
 
I have had many doubts about the M&S studies and the "Great Goat Shoot" for a number of years. There many problems with both.

Way back when, Sanow was touting Glazers as the round that would save the world in his magazine articles while working for the company. At least he was sure working their booth at the SHOT show that year.

When Marshall was with Detroit P.D. NO ONE was allowed to use hollow point ammunition. His articles at the time reflected that. Since he retired, you would think that he carried a 9m/m with JHP's while on the streets. He mave have used a 9 but it was loaded with FMJ's.

The Goat Shoot was cited several times by M/S as "proof" of their studies. However, I have never found a book that included the results of the shoot. No ammunition maker has used the "results" from the study in their ads which I am sure they would if the shooting of sedated Alpine goats and waiting for them to expire equated to OSS on doped up felons.

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Ne Conjuge Nobiscum
"If there be treachery, let there be jehad!"



[This message has been edited by Jim V (edited November 01, 1999).]
 
"Well the parties over and the've all gone to church". Read the data on Shawns Dodsons tactical website concerning M&S data; nothing really compelling but errors were made with some data. My contention, ANY modern handgun cartridges [38, 9mm, 357 sig or mag, 40s&w, 45acp, 10mm etc... etc,] will take care of business when SHOT PLACMENT is key factor involved, ie.. cns shots. Practice and realistic training also need to incorparated into one's shooting regiment. Find a gun and ammo combination that works for you, practice with it [a lot] forget about statistics that are meaningless to the average person. my .02 worth.
 
As a science teacher, I spend a great deal of time trying to teach my students logical scientific thought processes. When I heard of the Strassburg Goat Tests and the M&S data, I almost got sick. They prove nothing, yet so many people adhere to their "findings". I'm glad none of my former students came up with these "studies".

Hey Shawn, thank you for the info.
 
Like they say when discussing the NFL or other professional sports--AMS

Another meaningless statistic ;)

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We don't have a chaplain here, but I don't view that as any major problem... You can rest assured that you will not go in that bag until I've said a few appropriate words over you
R. Lee Ermy as Sgt Major Haffner, from The Siege of Firebase Gloria
 
"Errors made with data"?

Seems like a lot more than an error to me. They have more successes than they do shootings! That is more than an error, that is just plain making up stats.

It looks quite simple to me:
They did the stats at first, and then the following year(s), they felt that they wanted a certain round to have a higher rating. So, they just made up some successful shootings and doctored the data. Seems obvious. That is the only explanation why they would just pull successes out of the air, would be to doctor the data.
Where they got sloppy is that they probably do this quite a bit, but it does not show up as an error. In these cases, they got sloppy and made up too many successful shootings and added them in, not realizing that they added in more successes than shootings.

The only reason I can see hy they would make up successful shootings is because an ammo company is paying them off to make their ammo look good to prmote sales of certain ammo types. I am not accusing them, just saying that that is the only reason I can see why they would do that.
 
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