Life Post-Ammo Shortage #1 & #2

I ...I..think it might finally be over.

For the first time since 2012, I've seen .22 lr on a Walmart shelf :eek:.

And not only that, but it was a reasonable amount. I saw maybe half a dozen bricks of Thunderbolt. There were also 100 round packs of something, but I was so shocked that I didn't even pay attention to them.

Now, I can actually buy a .22 pistol. That's absolutely wild. Or maybe an old school Remington target rifle...

And I even have a few years to establish a stockpile before the next election panic.

Just wow.
 
Life Post-Ammo Shortage #1 & #2

Think about how quickly the last ammunition and gun shortage came about. Sandy Hook gave the prevailing party, the anti-gun fanatics all the ammunition they needed to trigger a shortage. While the current administration is not likely to look to take away our guns and ammunition everything can change real quickly. Being well stocked and supplied is the way to avoid future problems. I am not saying a father or mother of a family should buy guns and ammo in light of food but when a good ammo sale is running, grab a little. Properly stored ammunition, like reloading components, have a long shelf life. Little by little and piece by piece we save for a shortage. Under the right circumstances another shortage can happen as quickly as the last.

Ron
 
I can remember people growing up that would shoot the same box of ammo for years. Fire a round or five at a target before deer season to confirm zero, go hunting, put the remainder away for next year. Maybe wring out the handgun on the nightstand with six rounds once a year.

I think what we are seeing is that recreational and defensive shooters have more or less replaced hunters as the majority. And they are shooting a lot more ammo than their predecessors did.

As far as what it has taught me? Buy cheap and stack deep. Guns and ammo generally hold their value well. The only firearm I've ever bought that hasn't kept pace with inflation at least was an Olympic Arms 11.5" HBAR AR15. I paid $550 for it in 1989. Now you can buy a better AR for under $500 even without inflation adjusting.* And I'm happy to see it too as I can't think of a better sign that AR15s are as mainstream now as a lever gun was in 1957 when the AR was invented.

*Hint: This signals the "Buy cheap" part is underway for this item.
 
I've been reloading and casting my own bullets since the mid 80's. I got caught short during the Clinton era and learned my lesson. '08 didn't have much impact on me and prior to Sandy Hook I had been gradually building up my stock of rimfire, primers and powder. I had a good supply of my preferred rimfire hunting rounds (CCI mini-mag HP) and a variety of other bulk packs for plinking. I did pace myself during the panic but didn't have to buy anything and exited with a good overall supply intact. Don't wait for the next panic, prepare and achieve some balance.

The scalpers were able to exploit fears and profited only because people allowed themselves to become desperate.
 
The post Sandy Hook shortage has blown my mind. I still couldn't say I have any confidence there would be 2lr on the shelf at my walmart tonight, so in my mind it is still a shortage. Going on 5 years.

If I get back to shooting the amount i would like to be I will have to find some sort of substitute for rimfire in my volume fundamental riflery practice. Probably eventually move to a $1000 air rifle at some point, at least as back-up. Problem is good match pellets aren't really any cheaper than decent 22lr.
 
I learned my lesson back in 1996 when the rumor went around that primers were going to be made with a 6 month shelf life. That caused a panic and if you could find primers they went from $10 per thousand to $20-$25 per thousand.

The rumor was debunked and soon you could buy primers again. But not for $10 a 1,000. Now they were $20 a thousand. I have always wondered who started that rumor?:rolleyes:

But I have never been caught short again, not even in the last two ammo runs. Frankly I have more than I can shoot. But I have two sons who will pick up where I leave off. I really feel sorry for those who just got in to shooting in the last 10 years or so. Stuff used to be reasonable to buy. Now its crazy. I am not sure I would have stuck with shooting or buying as many guns as I have if I had to pay todays prices.

But one word of advise is to get a reloading kit. Buy dies and supplies for every gun you shoot. Stock up on generic powders that will work in several different calibers so you only have to stock 3 or 4 powders. Then buy in bulk.

You may not ever think you will do it but buy a few bullet molds and scrounge lead. Its not that hard to do. Most guns will work with lead bullets and it frees you up from counting on bullet makers who may or may not have stock when you need it.

I could write a small book on this. All I am saying is think ahead. Most of you have been very well trained on what happens in a panic.
 
Most of you have been very well trained on what happens in a panic.
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It's pretty simple really. People buy up ammo because the shelves are empty and the shelves are empty because people are buying up all the ammo. A self perpetuating viscous circle.

Also, the next buying panic may very easily NOT be .22 LR ammo but something else. Beer perhaps.
 
We have met the enemy and it is us.

In neither 2008 or 2012 was there any effective restrictive legislation passed with the exception of some benighted states.

Virtually 100% of the shortages were generated by a combination of panic buying, hoarders, and profiteers.
 
Except, EVERY SINGLE TIME the price approaches reasonability, it sells out.
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Guess it depends on what you consider reasonable........... I remember, (not that long ago) that 500 round bricks were $8; I bought .22 by the case of 6250 rounds for $90.....Those days are NEVER coming back. 6-10 cents a round, depending on brand and volume, seems to be the norm. Either get a .22 air rifle or cast your own pistol bullets and shoot for less.
 
B.L.E. :
Also, the next buying panic may very easily NOT be .22 LR ammo but something else. Beer perhaps.
Click to expand...

Toilet paper, rumor control says toilet paper so get all you can now as a roll is expected to peak at $10. The good stuff, multiple ply should hit $12 a roll easily.

Ron
 
Toilet paper, rumor control says toilet paper so get all you can now as a roll is expected to peak at $10. The good stuff, multiple ply should hit $12 a roll easily.

Ron
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I can always step into the shower to clean myself off.
 
I would skip lunch when I was a kid sometimes and stop by Gibson's when walking home from school and buy a brick of 500 22s. If I had a couple of extra bucks I'd get some cans of freon for reactive targets ( we didn't know it was harmful ) I gave up on 22lr when they started costing real money.

As far as hoarding goes, we do cause the panics. I buy ammo almost every payday because I can now and I know there will be a time again when I can't buy it.
I won't go two years without shooting again like the 08 panic.
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I do what I've always done. I buy when I see good deals and keep enough stock on hand that I don't have to buy when the prices are high.

Speaking of which...

Ran across a couple of good deals on some practice ammo.

$5 per 50 or 100 round box rebate for American Eagle handgun ammo. Max of $50 per household.
https://www.federalpremium.com/downloads/promotions/FP1412_AE_25Summer_Promo_Coupon_web_f.pdf

5 cent per round rebate on selected 5.56/223 ammo with minimum 100 round purchase. Max $200 per household.
https://www.federalpremium.com/downloads/promotions/FP1417_AE5.56and223promo_web_f.pdf

I found an online seller that was offering free shipping on orders of $200 or more and who was selling American Eagle 9mm for $214.50 per case. After the rebate, that's less than 17 cents per round. Not a bad deal at all for good quality brass-case practice ammo.

I'm liking these post-panic prices!
 
I do what I've always done. I buy when I see good deals and keep enough stock on hand that I don't have to buy when the prices are high.
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For ammunition, I do what I've always done as well. 25 years ago, I generally had between 20,000 and 30,000 rounds of 22lr on hand. I sometimes bought it for less than two cents per round and didn't want to have to waste time stopping by a store on the way to the range. I sometimes had a couple thousand rounds of 5.56, but it was the cheap stuff, less than 10 cents per round.

My problem is that after the 2012 shortage, 5.56 prices destroyed my sensitivity to price. I've paid 35 cents for 5.56 and been happy to get it. That's nuts, but it's not the real problem.

As 22lr prices fall, five cents per round looks like an extraordinary deal to me, so my "buy it cheaply" reflex kicks in too often.
 
I won't buy junk .22 ammo, no matter how cheap it is. If it doesn't group and has a FTF in every box, I don't want it. I like to hit distant targets with deliberate aimed shots, I have no interest in seeing how much lead I can spray downrange during a range session.

I remember back in 1970 saving my lawn mowing and odd job money for .22 ammo and I seldom had enough to buy an entire brick. However if you take the price we paid for .22 ammo in that time and adjust for inflation, today's quality ammo is priced about the same as it costed then.
Also, a failure to fire was almost unheard of then. The quality was better which is why I compare today's high quality ammo to the price of ammo back in those days.

Here's a link to an online inflation calculator to compare prices of today's ammo with yesterday's ammo.
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Shotshells are a true bargain today. Even the high quality loads like STS or AA, which cost about $10/ box should have costed about $1.65 in 1971 if adjusted for inflation. I remember the prices of 12 gauge paper shells going for about $2.75 or so back then.
The fact that a lot of high volume shooters like skeet and trap competitors no longer bother to reload their ammo speaks volumes.

Five cents a round for .22 ammo would have been 0.83 cents a round in 1971.
You can't buy a Coke for 10 cents or a candy bar for a nickel anymore either.
 
I had enough during the last 22 shortage it didn't hurt me. I still have enough but buy it when I see it on a good deal. I shoot a bunch of 22 every time I go out. In 72 I was making $2.75 an hour and I could buy a brick of 22's for $5.00. The price of ammo has gone up but so has my income. I look for good deals and buy when I find them. Shoot them if you got them and enjoy our sport.
 
ammo outpaced inflation, in the case of 22lr it doubled in like a year.

Now maybe it's true adjusting for inflation the price we see are about right compared to whatever time period.

Even if that's true I suspect the economics of scale are at play.. because that means in 08 when price jumps happen it would have been beating inflation.
Probably because of the sheer number of production and allowed for thin margins per round.

However the fact remains when it went up in price it went up in jerks.. I remember cleaning out walmart of their federal 550 packs @ 8.98 (2008) just a few months before the price jumps, no crystal ball just good timing.

It went up a few dollars every couple weeks, last price I seen was 19.98 I think it's went up even more to about 26.95 or something like that.. but after it hit 20 bucks we had the shortage and I've not seen it on the shelf since.

You can now find it online but still nothing at my local walmart in years.
Im sure it comes in but it is never there when I visit.

22mag same situation it's been off the shelf for years.

Other ammo has came back, and if you wait for a good deal can get pricing that resembles something like before the shortage and price hikes.

22lr however does not seem to have recovered.
 
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