Is the AR15 going to fade from ownership?

A

ARSG12

New member
I know the AR15 is the most popular rifle in America, but I'm starting to wonder how much longer that can be the case. With states making them illegal to own, and some cases harder to buy and own, and then we have retailers no longer selling them.

I'm in Wisconsin where there are no restrictions, and we got a new Fleet Farm store where they had a great selection of firearms. Their sales fliers featured everything except the AR15s. I found online that they decided to stop advertising them. Now I just discovered that they no longer list them online either. Not sure if they are still for sale in the store. Walmart no longer sells them at all. Dick's Sporting Goods stopped selling them.

I also read that a permit from the police is needed in MN to buy one, which came as a surprise. And don't even get me started about NY and CA.

So, just how popular can a particular rifle remain when laws are being passed that ban it or make it harder or more expensive to own, or say you can own it, but it has to be made into a contraption that doesn't even resemble what it originally was meant to be?

Even more surprising is that this is all the case under a Republican president, with all these bans and regulation being at the state level, and even the retail level. If 2020 gets us a Democrat president, would there be any hope left?

BTW, here's a site that lists the laws specifically against "assault weapons" by state: https://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-laws/state-law/50-state-summaries/assault-weapons-state-by-state/
 
Only the freedom hating ten restrict semi-auto sporting rifles. DC doesn't count.
so, since 40 states still respect Americans' freedom I don't see another federal ban happening.
 
The AR-15 isn't going to fade away. Aside from the fact that there are already probably more of them in private hands than any other single type of firearm, a tremendous number of the new ones aren't "sales." The AR-15 is the ultimate kit gun. I see discussions even on non-"gun" forums in which people are asking what's the best lower, what's the best upper, who makes the best trigger assembly, etc.

I have no numbers to back it up, but I wouldn't be surprised if kits and parts currently sell more than complete rifles.
 
AR sales are stagnant right now. Everyone who wants one already has multiple rifles. The trend is to offer uppers in different configurations and cartridges for now.

I guess where you live determines your perspective, but I don't see the Supreme Court declaring any outright bans constitutional. I can see future laws limiting WHO can purchase certain firearms.
 
AR sales are stagnant right now. Everyone who wants one already has multiple rifles.
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Is this a guess based on your "feel" or do you have some analysis? By stagnant, do you mean that people aren't buying any more than the "normal" amount of recent years and that "growth" has stagnated, or do you mean that we're actually buying less.

FBI NICS checks show that in the first 6months of 2019, we've already had over 600,000 more checks than the first 6 months of 2018... and since the big gains are usually Nov/Dec during the holidays, there's no reason we shouldn't be in the 1.5million more range vs. last year.

In 2017, the anti's tried to capitalize on the optics of the decrease in sales vs. 2016. I saw articles that intimated that since Trump won, there was no reason to buy guns anymore because we had 4 years of no threat to take them away and that the gun industry was "Suffering under Trump" and other obvious propaganda. But we still bought 2.1 million more guns in 2017 vs. 2015. 2016 was an anomaly year and come 2018, we were right back on slope... 2019 is the same way.

Also... I just bought 4 lowers (PSA $29.99) on one 4473... so the 27million or so NICS checks we're gonna see this year likely means MILLIONS more new guns actually being sold.

I just don't see how the industry is not selling way more AR15's every year.
 
jmr40 said:
AR sales are stagnant right now. Everyone who wants one already has multiple rifles. The trend is to offer uppers in different configurations and cartridges for now.
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The trend I'm seeing is more and more people rolling their own lower receivers, either from unfinished "80-percent" units, or casting their own out of polymer. Either way, people are building rifles and they don't show up in sales statistics.
 
Aguila Blanca said:
The trend I'm seeing is more and more people rolling their own lower receivers, either from unfinished "80-percent" units, or casting their own out of polymer. Either way, people are building rifles and they don't show up in sales statistics.
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Just what I was going to say.
So many building their own today that never get counted on any countable list.
I think this is one of the main reasons large box stores are not selling the AR because you can't make much profit buying a firearm & reselling it these days.
I have made a fine shooting AR from an 80% build for about $350 & there is no way a box store can make a profit with a price that low.
You can pick up blem 80% lowers for about $25 at gun shows.
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ARSG12 said:
So, just how popular can a particular rifle remain when laws are being passed that ban it or make it harder or more expensive to own, or say you can own it, but it has to be made into a contraption that doesn't even resemble what it originally was meant to be?
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The flexibility that allows it to be made into all sorts of different things is part of the key to its wide acceptance. It can be a 24 inch heavy barreled varmint rifle or a four inch pistol, and lots between the two.
 
I don't think so.
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If the November elections in Virginia swing hard blue, we'll watch this battle play out at the state level very early in 2020, and it will be a template for how they'll try it federally if they get a chance. I don't think outright bans on ownership are in the cards, but it'll start with all the "cosmetic features" crap and sales/transfer bans... we'll watch what has happened in California over the last 25+ years play out over the course of a couple sessions.

Buying 80% lowers is good insurance, but it's just too much work when PSA is selling stripped lowers for $29.
 
Even more surprising is that this is all the case under a Republican president, with all these bans and regulation being at the state level
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Proponents of gun regulation have said pretty openly that they intend to do battle on the state level.

And it is not always wise to assume that folks of one party are pro-gun and another party anti-gun. Polls routinely show something on the order of 30% of voters disagreeing with their party of record on the issue. That is a significant number of one party failing to give us the expected support, and a significant number of the other that our organizations need to better embrace to solidify their support.
 
I agree it’s going to take some time for outright bans, but removal of semiautomatic rifles from our possession is the stated goal of those in power and seeking power.

The citizens of our county do not want us to have them.
Other gun owners do not want us to have them.
Our “trusted” news sources are against us.
Our own government doesn’t want us to have them.
Our political and bureaucratic leaders do not want us to have them.
Our banks and powerful companies do not want us to have them.
Judges and Justices do not want us to have them:
The first world nations do not want us to have them.

And again our own citizens are marching in the streets and want them banned. We don’t march, we don’t stand up, we don’t vote in large enough numbers to stem stem the tide that’s coming. Our country is changing, guns just simply won’t be accepted by the new society.

Not just the AR15 style, we argued for years that there’s no functional differences between ARs and other semiautomatic rifles... they listened now they want them all. Washington state has placed some significant restrictions on all semiautomatic rifles... and it’s only an early step towards gun safety. Vegas had a pretty big effect on the public, the world witnessed the tragedy and heard the sound of one man and his “semiautomatic” rifles.

People are exposed to non-stop anti-gun information, propaganda and rhetoric. There have been more school and other horrific mass shootings than people can even keep track off... there will be more.

The public has lost tolerance for us and we don’t stand up. We don’t stand up for residents of California, New York, Colorado Washington and other states that are loosing their rights. We only respond with tired old cliches and then comply to laws that are passed. We are law abiding citizens, we have no other choice but to comply; so we comply without any further action.

So yes, the semiautomatic rifles will go one day... thats what our people in power and organizations have stated as the end goal. Once the anti-gun politicians figure out that we really don’t have the ability to stop restrictions they will go all in. They just don’t know yet that we can be defeated. We don’t have the will to counter them.

New country is coming, the majority of the citizens want a new type of country; pay real close attention to what kids are being taught in public schools. They will get it, in time, we are on the loosing side
 
Not depending on a moderate from NYC to protect firearms owners right to buy semi-auto rifles. Also I do not depend on my governor to protect/veto anti-gun legislation.
BAWN is collecting signatures for a constitutional (Florida) amendment to ban all semi-auto firearms, limit all magazine capacity with no grandfathering.
 
I found online that they [Fleet Farm] decided to stop advertising them. Now I just discovered that they no longer list them online either.
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Arrrrgggg. Fleet Farm (I'm in Minnesota) has been one of my favorite places to shop for firearms related stuff. I've notice in a couple of my local stores they've increased the floor space dedicated to firearms. Now I find this. Very sad.

You mentioned Minnesota. Yeah, you need a "permit to purchase" if you want to buy a handgun or an "assault style" rifle. And by "assault style" rifle I found out the hard way that I could not purchase the Remington 597 .22LR with the tacticool stock without a "permit to purchase". I COULD by the standard wooden stock Remington 597 .22LR WITHOUT the "permit to purchase" but I wanted the adjustable stock so I could use the same gun with "smaller" members of my extended family. Oh naïve me!

That said, a "permit to purchase" in Minnesota is very easy to get. Fill out a form at your local police department and a couple weeks later it shows up and is good for one year.
 
And maybe, before any more states "ban" assault rifles they'll look into how one of the "poster countries" for gun control, New Zealand, is doing with their recent ban. You can read about it in this thread.
https://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=602825

In my state, Minnesota, the gun control folk concentrated all their efforts on just two items last session. 1. Universal background checks for ALL gun purchases private or commercial and 2. the "red flag gun confiscation" law.

They say they'll go for just the same two items next session but they lie about things.
 
I own a powder metal parts fabrication plant and we make AR15 parts for several aftermarket customers. 3 or 4 years, the volume of parts in this market segment, was hundreds of thousands of each part per year. Those same parts are now around 25,000 each per year. The market is saturated with product.

Gun parts are less than 5% of our output, with the main part being automotive.
 
rickyrick said:
I agree it’s going to take some time for outright bans, but removal of semiautomatic rifles from our possession is the stated goal of those in power and seeking power.

The citizens of our county do not want us to have them.
Other gun owners do not want us to have them.
Our “trusted” news sources are against us.
Our own government doesn’t want us to have them.
Our political and bureaucratic leaders do not want us to have them.
Our banks and powerful companies do not want us to have them.
Judges and Justices do not want us to have them:
The first world nations do not want us to have them.

And again our own citizens are marching in the streets and want them banned. We don’t march, we don’t stand up, we don’t vote in large enough numbers to stem stem the tide that’s coming. Our country is changing, guns just simply won’t be accepted by the new society.

Not just the AR15 style, we argued for years that there’s no functional differences between ARs and other semiautomatic rifles... they listened now they want them all. Washington state has placed some significant restrictions on all semiautomatic rifles... and it’s only an early step towards gun safety. Vegas had a pretty big effect on the public, the world witnessed the tragedy and heard the sound of one man and his “semiautomatic” rifles.

People are exposed to non-stop anti-gun information, propaganda and rhetoric. There have been more school and other horrific mass shootings than people can even keep track off... there will be more.

The public has lost tolerance for us and we don’t stand up. We don’t stand up for residents of California, New York, Colorado Washington and other states that are loosing their rights. We only respond with tired old cliches and then comply to laws that are passed. We are law abiding citizens, we have no other choice but to comply; so we comply without any further action.

So yes, the semiautomatic rifles will go one day... thats what our people in power and organizations have stated as the end goal. Once the anti-gun politicians figure out that we really don’t have the ability to stop restrictions they will go all in. They just don’t know yet that we can be defeated. We don’t have the will to counter them.

New country is coming, the majority of the citizens want a new type of country; pay real close attention to what kids are being taught in public schools. They will get it, in time, we are on the loosing side
Click to expand...

Don't be so pessimistic. Yes, there are problems I would dispute that it is any lost cause.
 
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