After reading through the posts, I think it's probably worthwhile to state why I first did the probability calculations and provided the results on TFL.
It wasn't to try to make the point that people who carry very low capacity handguns are stupid or ignorant and that people who carry high capacity guns are smart and well-informed. I sometimes carry a pocket pistol when I can't manage to conceal something bigger and I would like to think that my IQ and knowledge levels don't change when I do that.
It is to help people make an informed decision when they choose a carry gun and to provide them with a realistic perspective on what it can do for them.
It wasn't to convince people that they really need to carry a gun with X or more rounds or they're not prepared. Having a gun (and the knowledge/skill to use it effectively and legally) at all gives you a preparedness level that is much higher than the vast majority of the population. It is to help them understand HOW prepared they are.
I just think it's better if people understand the basics of this topic. Once people understand what's going on, they can do what they want with that information. The difference is that now they have a more informed perspective from which to make decisions.
That perspective might prompt them to change what gun they carry. It might prompt them to get more training. Or they might not change anything and instead re-evaluate their planned strategy in some dangerous encounters.
When I first started running these numbers years ago, one might think that I immediately changed what guns I was carrying. That didn't happen. What did happen was that I immediately began thinking very differently about how I viewed and planned for various self-defense situations/violent encounters. My perspective on what capability I have to deal with multiple attackers when I'm carrying my pocket pistol is now a lot more realistic.
Before looking at the numbers, I had a picture in my mind that if I were attacked by multiple determined attackers, I would, if left with no other option, pull my carry pistol and eliminate the threats with well-aimed shots. After running the numbers, I began to understand just how improbable it is to make enough solid hits to down even two determined attackers with 5 or 6 rounds. Now my strategy is more along the lines of pulling my carry pistol and using it as a tool to help provide an avenue of escape from any remaining threats rather than viewing it as a way to clear the board of threats.
Before I was really impressed with how effective guns are as a self-defense tool. Now I understand that a lot of that effectiveness is really about the deterrent value against criminals whose highest priority is not being shot, not about how easy it is to wield them to neutralize determined attackers.
What I'm trying to say is this:
Don't get bent out of shape because you carry a 5 shot revolver or a 2 shot derringer and let that irritation cause you to dismiss this topic.
Don't get overcome by pride because you carry a full-sized service pistol and a spare magazine and let that smugness cause you to move on without considering all the ramifications of this discussion.
Instead, think about how the realities discussed affect you, the decisions you have made, and the decisions you will make. Even if you don't have any intention of changing what you carry, the information still has value because it helps provide a more realistic perspective and a more realistic perspective is always a very good thing to have.