Guns / ARs not driving gun crime, but mental health & social media are.

[Double Naught Spy]

It is easy to select one, two, or three things and claim that because there is a correlation, that there could be a "nefarious impact.' What you are doing there is really saying that the correlation is causation without any sort of validation and that is nothing more than fanciful rumor mongering. You are basically making a white van argument.

You really have to ask yourself this. How many variables did the doctor in the video analyze before drawing his conclusions?

Remember when the know-it-alls were proclaiming that rock music and video games were the cause of violence? They had correlations as well.

 

[Paul B.]

I found Cdoc42s post interesting. It reminded me of an article I read in the Scientific American sometime in late 1961, early 1962 IIRC.It was called The Rat Syndrome and the article was, the last time it looked still available. Just google Scientific American the Rat Syndrome and you should find it. What was interesting was it still mirrors our society today, just like remembered when reading it.
Paul B.

 

[44 AMP]

thank you cdoc42 for that interesting information. That is a different and interesting look at one result of overcrowding.

Usually, when overcrowding comes up, so does the story of the Kaibab deer. I'm sure you can look it up, as I remember the story, the focus was on population density and existing resources, and didn't look at direct physical causes of stress.

A small herd of deer was settled on a plateau free of natural predators. The deer prospered and reproduced until there were more deer than deer food. Then most died of starvation, and the survivors were weak, sickly and malnourished for some time. With fewer deer eating the food, more food grew and so more deer could too, and the cycle began again.

Violent behavior just may be something we must learn to live with in a free society, and protect ourselves as best we can.

My first question would be, are we, in a free society? I suppose that depends on your frame of reference...

Consider the "wild west" and how, looking at actual historical records it was much less violent than it has been portrayed in our entertainment venues.

I think the famous outlaws of the time were a handful of violent men who managed to survive long enough to become famous. I'm certain there were many others whose violence ended rapidly who never got famous because they were stopped by someone (who might or might not actually be "the law") assisted by the generally "fair trial and speedy hanging" attitudes and actions of the general public and law enforcement of the day.

Much has been said about religion, and sure, it was a factor, but its not the direct tie to a religion that matters as much as having a "moral code", that is most important, I think.

Whether it was ever actually real, or not, I can't say, but the idea of the "Code of the West" where (among other things) you didn't shoot an unarmed man, shows that a moral code can exist independent of a specific religious affiliation.

and yes, along with "too many rats in a cage and they eat their young" overpopulation issues, we have a compounding factor with our 24hr news cycle and social media ensuring the majority of people hear about all the bad things over, and over, an over. This does stress people out.

Yes, the numbers show that overall violence is down, but you'd never guess that from our news coverage...

Personally, I think the solution might POSSIBLY be A) removing the people doing the violence from society, rapidly and permanently, and even more importantly B) convincing people in general that WILL be their fate if they commit violent crimes.

Swift and sure punishment is not a given in our society today, and on top of that many don't fear what punishment they would get, IF they got caught....

I also think that being taught that the world owes you everything just because you are here, and if you don't get it your life is crap, is a form of child abuse. Just one more of the many many factors that have gotten us where we are today. Discussion of how we got here is important, but more important is where do we go from here?, and how we get there.
Thoughts??

 

[cdoc42]

44AMP: "Personally, I think the solution might POSSIBLY be A) removing the people doing the violence from society, rapidly and permanently, and even more importantly B) convincing people in general that WILL be their fate if they commit violent crimes."

That is EXACTLY what I have advocated: bring back the death penalty for ANY crime in which a gun plays a part. Even a THREAT with a gun.

I just finished "The First Conspiracy" by Brad Meltzer which details a plot to kill or remove from action George Washington before the British landed in NY City in 1776.
One of the conspirators was hanged in public precisely to make it evident that anyone who erred on the choice between the new America and loyalists to England would suffer the same fate.

That history repeats itself presents a prominent thought in regard to the death penalty.
It focuses on the "user", not the "tool."

An alternative, as a deterrent, is to bring back the military draft, focusing on education and directing aptitudes toward benefit to the holder and society in general.

 

[reynolds357]

44AMP: "Personally, I think the solution might POSSIBLY be A) removing the people doing the violence from society, rapidly and permanently, and even more importantly B) convincing people in general that WILL be their fate if they commit violent crimes."

That is EXACTLY what I have advocated: bring back the death penalty for ANY crime in which a gun plays a part. Even a THREAT with a gun.

I just finished "The First Conspiracy" by Brad Meltzer which details a plot to kill or remove from action George Washington before the British landed in NY City in 1776.
One of the conspirators was hanged in public precisely to make it evident that anyone who erred on the choice between the new America and loyalists to England would suffer the same fate.

That history repeats itself presents a prominent thought in regard to the death penalty.
It focuses on the "user", not the "tool."

An alternative, as a deterrent, is to bring back the military draft, focusing on education and directing aptitudes toward benefit to the holder and society in general.

I don't think the death penalty is much of a deterrent to a mass shooter. I believe most, not all, have suicide by cop factored in as a high probability outcome. I agree that in general we need to fire up ole Sparky a LOT more.

 

[Mainah]

Swift and sure punishment is not a given in our society today, and on top of that many don't fear what punishment they would get, IF they got caught....

Yet we lead the world in terms of incarceration rate: https://www.statista.com/statistics...h-the-most-prisoners-per-100-000-inhabitants/

We put so many people in prison that we turned it into a for-profit industry. And what would make the most sense financially? I'm no Elon Musk, but it seems to me that not reducing crime or rehabilitating prisoners would make the most sense.

Taking religion out of schools? Back when the Ten Commandments hung in classrooms lynching was widely accepted and embraced by a wide swath of the American public. That wasn't one guy killing dozens. It was dozens, hundreds, or thousands watching one or two guys get murdered.

The Columbine shooting took place at the dawn of the social media age, and for some reason those two losers continue to inspire other losers. I don't think we'll understand the full impact of the rapid advances of social media for a long time, but I'm certain that it is severe.

 

[44 AMP]

I don't think the death penalty is much of a deterrent to a mass shooter.

Threat of death is not a deterrent to a nihilistic death seeking killer. Threat of being caught, and not dying "in battle" or by their own hands, is one of their fears, but not enough to stop them.

The death penalty is not a guaranteed deterrent, no one can prove it is, or isn't. (how do you count crimes that never happen??)

One thing that the death penalty does do, is positively prevent repeat offenses.

bring back the death penalty for ANY crime in which a gun plays a part. Even a THREAT with a gun.

I think that is a bit too extreme and too easy to abuse. Remember the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Look what happened when they made the penalty for robbing the 7-11 about the same as for shooting the clerk. More clerks got shot to eliminate the witness. That changed with video technology removing the criminal's advantge of eliminating the witness. Generally...

Lynching? NEVER LEGAL. Despite some of the public "going along" and not stopping it.

Don't recall the Ten Commandments being on the wall of any classroom I ever attended, but then, I did graduate in the 70s....

 

[oldbear1950]

has everyone heard about the 19 year old arrested in Texas, worked at amazon warehouse, told a coworker friday, purchased an AR -15, planned to shoot up the warehouse, and his father said had been in and out of mental institutions since was 16.
Apparently Texas does not require minors mental problems to be posted so they can not purchase a firearm. Wonder how many other states are like that. Should not matter, no one with mental problems should be able to buy a firearm

He also claimed the guy that shot up Uvalde was his idol.

 

[44 AMP]

Should not matter, no one with mental problems should be able to buy a firearm

If you mean dangerously unstable people with mental problems, I agree.

The big problem I have with it as a blanket statement is that so MUCH behavior is called "a mental problem" that people with harmless "quirks" called "mental problems" are covered by that big blanket.

Now, in regards to the kid in the warehouse and his threats....
first, kids (and some older adults as well) say all kinds of crap often just to get some amusement over spinning up other people.

Is this kid a credible threat? That's a judgement call, and we have a bunch of laws defining how authorities are supposed to make that judgement.

Last time I looked, the Federal 4473 form still asks if you have been committed to a mental institution. Lying on the form is a Federal Crime AND is prosecutable even if no gun is delivered.

If this 19yr old has "been in and out of mental institutions" he probably meets the definition of having been committed to a mental institution. SO, if he has been committed, no gun. If he lies on the form, he's committing a CRIME right there.

There is no easy or simple way, and each individual case requires individual solutions, but until/unless spooky, scary, creepy people meet the legal standards for judgement, they have the same rights as everyone else.

 

[cdoc42]

The first thing that needs to be done is to enforce the laws we already have. Hunter Biden is a perfect example. It is known he lied on the background check. No action was taken. So if anyone else lies in the background check and IS prosecuted, can their lawyer use the Biden failure as a defense?

The other issue is we have so many laws that at any point in time, any one of us is probably unknowingly breaking one of them.

 

[TomNJVA]

There is no easy or simple way, and each individual case requires individual solutions, but until/unless spooky, scary, creepy people meet the legal standards for judgement, they have the same rights as everyone else.

Exactly, which is why poorly written red flag laws have a high potential for abuse.

 

[44 AMP]

It is known he lied on the background check. No action was taken.

Once again we see a problem, covered by existing law (and for decades) remains a problem because the government is not enforcing the law.

The Federal govt denies thousands of gun purchases every year. Lying on the form is a crime. Being a prohibited person and trying to buy a gun, is a crime.

The Feds on average, prosecute about 40 people a year for that, ...

Back when our current president was vice president, he got asked "point blank" why the government prosecuted so few people for illegally trying to buy guns. His answer was a dismissive hand wave, along with "We don't have time for that..."

I saw it happen.

Here's the established pattern (and with a LOT more than just guns)
Have a problem.....
Pass some laws...
Don't enforce the laws....
Problem persists....
Pass MORE laws....

Problem continues, increasing disrespect for the law and distrust and dis-satisfaction with the govt in general, creating civil unrest, and resulting in even MORE BS laws being passed....

I won't say this is intentional and deliberate, but I have to wonder....if it walks like a duck, and it talks like a duck it just might be foul (fowl).
The last "duck" we had in charge was actually named Donald...the one we've got now isn't a Donald, seems more like a Daffy, to me...

 

[oldbear1950]

mental problems

I have to agree , each case is different, heck being a vet, sometimes is enough for people to say you must have mental problems. But the part about being committed is correct. And last I heard, lying on the form is a federal crime. Some how we have to figure a way to stop all this violence. And all the kids with violent tendencies has to be stopped too.
I am 71, and when I was a kid, heck we had fights and all, but I do not remember anyone grabbing up a gun and cutting loose.
We grew up in a very rural area, with farms and ranches all around. I can not remember any time any of my friends house, where the parents had loaded guns around, and we never picked em up, or very rarely, and only then with permission.
Something is different with young people today! They seem to have no regard for others.

 

[Pistoler0]

It is easy to select one, two, or three things and claim that because there is a correlation, that there could be a "nefarious impact.' What you are doing there is really saying that the correlation is causation without any sort of validation and that is nothing more than fanciful rumor mongering. You are basically making a white van argument.

You really have to ask yourself this. How many variables did the doctor in the video analyze before drawing his conclusions?

Remember when the know-it-alls were proclaiming that rock music and video games were the cause of violence? They had correlations as well.

I never "really" said that "correlation is causation", in fact I was careful to use the expression "could be". We all know that when two things move together it doesn't necessarily mean that one influences the other, but it could, and it piques a valid interest in exploring whether it might be the case. Most scientific papers, before diving into serious modeling and statistical analysis, include a preliminary section typically titled "Variable description" or "Definition of Variables" which includes descriptive statistics of the variables employed, including correlation. This serves as a motivation for the study, a kind of "this is why we are looking at this".

When two things, say X and Y move together, it could be that:
1) X is one of the factors causing Y, OR vice-versa: Y causes X.
- But note: even if X 100% causes Y, they don't need to be correlated!
- EX: Y = sin(X) => corr(X,Y)=0
2) A third variable Z is driving both X and Y and that is why they move together.
3) The movement of X and Y together is completely spurious, that is, due to chance.

In any case, when you observe X and Y moving together, it could be important to discover whether 1), 2) or 3) is the reason.

What I am trying to say is that the video points out to another direction to explore for a possible contribution to the increase in "active shooter incidents", other than a single focus on the availability of the AR and firearms in general which is the correlation that the mainstream media chooses to focus on.

I never meant to imply that the video has discovered the ultimate cause for this phenomenon. Only that it points to something worthy of further consideration, instead of insisting on placing the blame on an inanimate object.

Or... do you think that it would be wise to ignore whether mental health and social media could be exacerbating all of this?

 

[reynolds357]

I see a few basic causes:
1. Moral decay.
2. Letting the nutt cases roam the streets instead of locking them up in the mental hospital.
3. A completely broken criminal justice system.

As to social media and video games? I just don't see it. It might be enough to push a mentally un stable person over, but if they were in the nutt house where they belong, it wouldn't happen.

 

[44 AMP]

I see a few basic causes:
1. Moral decay.
2. Letting the nutt cases roam the streets instead of locking them up in the mental hospital.
3. A completely broken criminal justice system.

Consider, just for the sake of argument, and applied to all 3 points,

Defined how? and, by whom??

and then, once you have your answers for those, figure out how it will be applied to EVERYONE in this country in a fair, and unbiased manner, as decreed by law.

oh, yeah, there's also the minor problem of getting everyone to agree to it...

 

[101combatvet]

I see a few basic causes:
1. Moral decay.
2. Letting the nutt cases roam the streets instead of locking them up in the mental hospital.
3. A completely broken criminal justice system.

As to social media and video games? I just don't see it. It might be enough to push a mentally un stable person over, but if they were in the nutt house where they belong, it wouldn't happen.

The main issues are mental health and the attention given to these killings by the news media as the leading causes of these shootings.

 

[44 AMP]

How do you defuse a ticking time bomb that you can't be sure is ticking, or even a bomb?

And, along with that, how do you convince the ordinary folks that every gun owner in the country ISN'T a ticking time bomb?

Because that's what the other side is constantly making us out to be. All of us "tarred with the same brush" and equally guilty as the mass killers because we too, have guns.

IF that isn't "profiling" in the worst way, what is?

 

[stinkeypete]

I think if you think that gun ownership is the worst form of profiling that you’re not paying attention to what most of us have been unaware of for most of our lives.

It still baffles me that an under-age kid can buy an ar-15 in a straw purchase, cross state lines to come into my state, run around in a riot and shoot people and kill some, and no federal gun violations were charged.

Self defense or not, the underage straw purchase was clear as day.

I doubt the kid even had a hunter safety class to allow him a hunting license, like lots of 12 year olds have allowing them to carry a rifle in hunting season in a proper location for game under family supervision.

I learned a lot in my hunter safety class in the ‘70s and all us kids were proud to take it. Just sayin’.

 

[44 AMP]

I think if you think that gun ownership is the worst form of profiling that you’re not paying attention to what most of us have been unaware of for most of our lives.

I'm having difficulty making sense of this statement. Not paying attention to ...what? exactly??

How is treating all members of a group badly because some people who fit into the group, not "bad profiling"?? Call it profiling, or what it really is, prejudice and bigotry, the result is the same. People who have done nothing wrong are blamed for what wrongs have been done by others.

It still baffles me that an under-age kid can buy an ar-15 in a straw purchase, cross state lines to come into my state, run around in a riot and shoot people and kill some, and no federal gun violations were charged.

If we're thinking about the same case, as I recall there was no "straw purchase". And I also think you need to take a better look at what Federal laws do, and don't do. If you don't think the law goes far enough, there's a way to do something about that.

Self defense or not, the underage straw purchase was clear as day.

It would seem not, since no charges were brought on that.

I doubt the kid even had a hunter safety class to allow him a hunting license, like lots of 12 year olds have allowing them to carry a rifle in hunting season in a proper location for game under family supervision.

I don't know the rules where you are, but where I grew up, when I grew up, it was the hunting license that allowed gun carry (for hunting) under supervision, and taking the NRA Hunter Safety course was a requirement in order to get a hunting license. My Father was an NRA Hunter Safety instructor, for decades, and I was a "helper" and present at nearly every class he gave for a dozen years (basically, from the time I was big enough to carry a box of papers until I went into the Army...)

That "kid" was charged, went to trial, and was found not guilty. All of that was a STATE, not a Federal matter, and I believe, rightly so.